2024-03-13 22:30

US DOLLAR FORECAST – EUR/USD, USD/JPY The U.S. dollar slides but rising U.S. yields keep losses contained U.S. PPI and retail sales data on Thursday will steal market’s attention This article examines the outlook for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Most Read: Euro Outlook & Market Sentiment Analysis - EUR/USD, EUR/GBP & EUR/JPY The U.S. dollar experienced a slight dip on Wednesday, although its descent was cushioned by an uptick in U.S. Treasury yields. In any case, FX volatility remained subdued as traders appeared to refrain from taking large directional positions ahead of Thursday's key events on the U.S. calendar: the unveiling of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and advance monthly sales for retail and food services. US DOLLAR INDEX & US YIELDS PERFORMANCE Source: TradingView Earlier in the week, the CPI report, which handily topped consensus estimates, failed to convince Wall Street that the Federal Reserve could wait a little longer before removing policy restriction. Sentiment, however, could change if incoming data continues to come on the hot side, as this scenario could compel traders to reassess the central bank’s path. We’ll gain greater clarity on broader price trends and the health of the U.S. consumer tomorrow with the release of February's PPI and retail sales figures. Another upside surprise in the macro numbers could lead to the realization that inflation risks and the strength of the economy have been underestimated, triggering a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations. This should be bullish for the U.S. dollar. The following table presents the current market projections for both reports. EUR/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has climbed sharply this month, taking out critical levels during the rally. If gains accelerate in coming trading sessions, resistance appears at 1.0980 and 1.1020 thereafter. On further strength, all eyes will be on 1.1075, a key ceiling created by a medium-term descending trendline. Conversely, if sellers return to the charge and trigger a bearish reversal, support can be spotted at 1.0890, followed by 1.0850, an area where three key moving averages converge. Further losses from this point forward will bring the spotlight on 1.0790. EUR/USD PRICE ACTION CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView USD/JPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY ticked up on Wednesday, consolidating above resistance at 147.50. If prices manage to remain above this threshold in the near term, we could soon see a move towards the 50-day simple moving average at 148.35. Subsequent strength would then shift focus to 148.90, followed by 149.70. On the other hand, if selling pressure remerges and sparks a pullback beneath 147.50, the pair may gradually retreat towards a confluence support region ranging from 146.30 to 146.00. Below this floor, market scrutiny will be directed towards the psychological 145.00 level. USD/JPY PRICE ACTION CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-seeks-fed-signals-in-ppi-retail-sales-data-eur-usd-usd-jpy-setups-20240313.html

2024-03-13 14:30

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) - Prices, Charts, and Analysis: Bitcoin posts a fresh all-time high. Ethereum continues to rally but still lags Bitcoin. Bitcoin continues to press higher, making fresh all-time highs in the process. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is up just over 92% since the January 23 swing low ($38.55k), with the move higher driven by ongoing spot ETF buying. Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager, now holds approximately 204k Bitcoin – current value $14.97 billion – despite their spot ETF being less than two months old. This holding is just behind MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor who currently holds 205k BTC at an average cost price of around $33.7k. Bitcoin Halving Event While ETF demand remains the prominent driver of Bitcoin activity, the markets continue to price in next month's BTC halving event where mining rewards will be slashed by 50%. The ongoing demand-new supply mismatch (demand outstripping supply) continues to underpin the move higher. Any short-term sell-off, normally attributed to leveraged longs bailing, is normally bought back on the same day, highlighting and reinforcing the strength of the recent move higher. While demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs may weaken, the supply-side dynamic will keep BTC moving higher over the weeks ahead. Bitcoin Daily Price Chart Ethereum has neither the ETF-demand pull of the upcoming supply shock so is understandably lagging Bitcoin at the moment. The first spot Ethereum ETF is up for final review by the SEC on May 23rd and while there is a possibility that this ETF and most probably all the others, is/are approved, the short-term outlook looks unlikely. This lag – Ethereum spot ETFs are very likely to be approved this year – will keep Ethereum underperforming Bitcoin over the coming weeks, unless the SEC looks to accelerate the approval process. The daily chart shows Ethereum running into short-term resistance around $4.1k. If/when this level is broken, the move to the next level of resistance at $4.4k may be swift. Ethereum Daily Price Chart Ethereum Spot ETF – The Next Cab Off the Rank? All charts via TradingView What is your view on Bitcoin, Ethereum – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-btc-and-ethereum-eth-rally-further-where-to-next-20240313.html

2024-03-13 13:00

Crude Oil Prices and Analysis US benchmark crude is closing in on $79/barrel again OPEC has stuck with its relatively bullish medium-term demand forecasts US stockpiles unexpectedly shrank last week Learn how to trade oil with our complimentary trading guide Crude Oil Prices rose sharply on Wednesday as the markets mulled over some rather bullish demand forecasts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries released in the previous session. The major producers’ group predicts substantial global oil demand growth in the years ahead. It stuck with its previous view that 2024 will see overall increases of 2.5 million barrels per day, with a 1.85 million barrel increase next year. It is notable that OPEC is a little more optimistic than other oil-watchers, notably the International Energy Agency which expects more subdued demand. Some economists feel that substantial increases in production from non-OPEC sources, notably the United States, will offset the effects of production cuts from traditional producers. But oil markets have also been lifted by news of a surprise fall in US crude stockpiles last week, and by the latest United States inflation numbers. These showed some key measures of inflation edging up, but perhaps not by enough to elbow aside market expectations that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates in the second half of this year. Add in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and Gaza, with the latter’s knock-on effects on global shipping, and it’s perhaps unsurprising that oil prices should remain elevated. The oil market and all others will have plenty of chances to gauge US economic temperature this week, with producer price, retail sales, and consumer sentiment numbers all still to come. Friday will also bring more market-specific data with the release of the US oil rig count from oil-field services giant Baker Hughes. For now the West Texas Intermediate benchmark is still struggling with selling pressure on approaches to the $80 mark. US Crude Oil Technical Analysis Chart Compiled Using TradingView Prices remain within a very broad uptrend channel from their lows of mid-December but that channel hasn’t faced a serious upside test since January 29 and there are some signs that the bulls now have work to do if they’re going to prevent this market from topping out, at least in the near term. Prices attempted to gap higher at the start of this month, but since then have faltered notably on approaches to the $80 psychological resistance mark. Now they are starting to look a little less comfortable around $79 as well. A trading band between last week’s high of $80.84 and the first Fibonacci retracement of the climb up to it from the mid-December lows at $77.60 seems to be bounding the market and it will probably be instructive to see which way this channel eventually breaks. Bears have made forays below the base on an intraday basis but so far those falls are reclaimed in short order. More serious reversals would likely find support in the mid $75 area, around another retracement prop at $75.58. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/crude-oil-prices-pop-up-on-bullish-opec-demand-calls-20240313.html

2024-03-13 08:30

GBP/USD and FTSE 100 Analysis and Charts UK economy expands by 0.2% in January, GBP/USD remains below 1.2800. FTSE 100 bumping into multi-month resistance. Most Read: British Pound Latest: UK Labor Market Cools, GBP Steadies, FTSE 100 Probes Higher According to the latest Office for National Statistics data, the UK economy expanded by 0.2% in January, but contracted by 0.1% in the three-month period to January 2024. UK GDP is also estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in January 2024 compared with the same month last year. Office for National Statistics Monthly GDP Estimate GBP/USD is treading water after two days of losses. Cable hit a multi-month high of 1.2894 last Friday before turning lower this week, but losses remain limited with first support seen around the 1.2742 area. For the pair to push ahead, last Friday’s high will need to be reclaimed but this looks unlikely at the moment with trade expected to remain on either side of 1.2800 in the short-term. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart IG Retail data shows 41.74% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.40 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 6.03% higher than yesterday and 1.30% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.33% lower than yesterday and 1.22% lower than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to rise.t See How IG Client Sentiment Can Help Your Trading Decisions The recent FTSE 100 rally has stalled in early trade today, unable to break through an area of multi-month prior resistance. The CCI indicator shows the market as heavily overbought and this reading will need to be dialled back if the UK big board is to move higher. A confirmed break above resistance around the 7,767 area would bring 7,937 back into play. FTSE 100 Daily Chart What is your view on the British Pound and the FTSE 100 – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/british-pound-update-gdp-picks-up-in-january-gbp-unchanged-ftse-tests-resistance-20240313.html

2024-03-12 16:55

USD/JPY FORECAST USD/JPY rallies on Tuesday after a poor performance over the past few trading sessions Hotter-than-expected U.S. consumer price index data reinforces the U.S. dollar’s rebound For greater clarity on the inflation outlook, traders should watch the upcoming PPI report Most Read: US Inflation Comes in Hotter-Than-Expected, USD Gets a Small Bid, Gold Drifts USD/JPY, already on an upward trajectory Tuesday morning, accelerated higher after February’s U.S. consumer price index figures surpassed projections, an event that boosted U.S. Treasury yields across the curve. For context, both headline and core CPI beat forecasts, with the former coming in at 3.2% y-o-y and the latter at 3.8% y-o-y, one-tenth of a percent above estimates in both instances. US INFLATION DATA While Tuesday’s data failed to materially alter the odds of the first FOMC rate cut arriving in June, the report unearthed a troubling revelation: inflationary pressures are proving highly resistant and are running well above pre-Covid trends. This will not give the Fed the confidence it necessitates to begin policy easing. Markets may not agree with this assessment right now, but they have been wrong many times. Eager to gain clarity on the U.S. dollar’s future trajectory? Access our quarterly forecast for expert insights. Secure your free copy now! FOMC MEETING PROBABILITIES Source: CME Group For further clarity on the outlook for consumer prices, it is important to keep an eye on Thursday's PPI numbers. Another upside surprise like today's could be the wake-up call Wall Street needs to recognize it has been underestimating inflation risks. This could fuel a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations, propelling bond yields and the U.S. dollar upwards in the process. Curious about what lies ahead for USD/JPY? Find comprehensive answers in our quarterly trading forecast. Claim your free copy now! USD/JPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY rebounded on Tuesday, pushing past resistance around the 147.50 level. If this breakout is confirmed on the daily candle, prices could start consolidating higher over the coming days, setting the stage for a possible move toward 148.90. On further strength, the spotlight will be on 149.70. On the other hand, if sellers return and drive the exchange rate back below 147.50, the pair could slowly head back towards confluence support spanning from 146.50 to 146.00. Below this technical zone, all eyes will be on the 145.00 handle. USD/JPY PRICE ACTION CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-forecast-hot-us-inflation-data-drives-usd-jpy-higher-what-now-20240312.html

2024-03-12 14:30

Euro (EUR/USD) Analysis and Charts US consumer prices rose by 3.2% last month, a tick ahead of forecasts Core inflation edged down but, again, beat consensus EUR/USD slipped again, continues to drift lower Learn how to trade EUR/USD with our complimentary guide The Euro slipped a little against a broadly stronger United States Dollar on Tuesday in the wake of official data showing inflation had ticked up in the world’s largest economy, US consumer prices rose by 3.2% in February, just ahead of the 3.1% seen in January which was expected to have been repeated. The ‘core’ rate, which strips out the volatile effects of food and fuel prices, rose by 3.8%, above the 3.7% forecast but just below the 3.9% seen in the previous month. The price of housing rents, airline fares, clothes, and car insurance all contributed to this latest rise and, while consumers are less squeezed than they were, the cost of many essentials continues to rise. The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates aggressively in a bid to fight inflation and, while the market is heavily betting on reductions this year, continued pricing strength will test investor confidence in the US central bank. That said inflation is still trending lower and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s ‘Fedwatch’ tool still shows a base case that US borrowing costs will start to come down in June. That thesis can’t afford too many upside inflation surprises, however, and this data series will remain absolutely crucial. The Euro has garnered the support of its own from the European Central Bank, which apparently remains in no hurry to cut its interest rates as it assesses the domestic inflation picture. That organization won’t meet to set monetary policy again until April 11. EUR/USD Technical Analysis EUR/USD Daily Chart Compiled Using TradingView The Euro seems to be wilting a little within the wide and quite well-respected uptrend channel which has contained trade since the lows of mid-February. The market will now eye near-term support at March 6’s closing high of 1.08976 ahead of channel base support at 1.08504. The market remains above its 200-day moving average which comes in below both of those levels at 1.08328. It is also well above the longer-term uptrend line established since October 2023, at which the market has already bounced once this year. Euro bulls’ immediate task is to try and retake resistance at 1.09453, last Thursday’s closing high. If they can, the channel top will be back in focus at 1.1000. IG’s sentiment data finds traders’ views as to where the Euro goes from here very mixed. The bears are out in front, with 59% coming to this market from that side. That’s not the sort of lead that cries out for a clear contrarian play, and the Euro’s drift lower does seem likely to continue. The uncommitted may want to wait and see whether this comes to threaten that broader uptrend before getting involved. By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/euro-slides-against-perky-dollar-as-us-inflation-springs-upside-surprise-20240312.html