2024-03-11 08:57

US Dollar, Bitcoin, Gold Analysis and Charts A quiet start to the week across most markets ahead of Tuesday’s US CPI release, although Bitcoin is soaring to a fresh record high. US dollar quiet ahead of Tuesday’s US inflation report. Bitcoin soars to a new all-time high. Gold consolidates recent hefty gains. A quiet start to the week across a range of markets as traders digest last Friday’s NFP number and look at Tuesday’s US inflation Report, the next likely driver of price action. Last week’s US Jobs Report was a mixed bag with a substantial headline beat tempered by a large revision to January’s number and an unexpected tick high in US unemployment. US Dollar Falls Further After US NFP Beat but January’s Number Revised Sharply Lower Tuesday’s US inflation data is forecast to show the core reading moving lower while the headline number is seen unchanged. Note, that the US has changed their clocks one hour forward so the data will be released at 12:30 UK. Learn how to trade economic releases with our complimentary guide The US dollar index is currently sitting in the middle of Friday’s range. The daily chart shows the dollar index as heavily oversold, using the CCI indicator, but the rest of the chart remains negative with the path of least resistance lower. US Dollar Index Daily Price Chart Bitcoin has started the week with a surge, dragging the rest of the cryptocurrency space higher with it. Late last week Bitcoin tried and failed to make a fresh all-time Bitcoin demand remains high, but this morning a new ATH was achieved with ease as buyers took control of the market. Bitcoin demand remains highs, driven primarily by the new ETF providers, while new supply is limited. The supply side of the equation will soon get tighter when the Bitcoin halving event takes place in mid-April. News also out earlier that the LSE plans to accept applications for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETNs in Q2 may have also helped today’s push higher. The Next Bitcoin Halving Event – What Does it Mean? Bitcoin is now in price discovery mode as it trades ever higher. Ongoing demand could see the $75k level tested soon although a sharp reversal lower cannot be discounted. Cryptocurrencies remain highly volatile, highlighted by the March 5th daily candle that showed BTC/USD hitting $69k and $59k in the same session. Bitcoin Daily Price Chart Gold is consolidating around $2,180/oz. in early trade and may well move further higher. The daily chart is positive and the fundamental backdrop remains supportive. Again with gold in all-time territory, accurate price predictions can be difficult. Big figure resistance at $2,200/oz. may come into play shortly. Gold Daily Price Chart IG Retail data shows 42.63% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.35 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 12.02% higher than yesterday and 4.94% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.72% higher than yesterday and 13.87% higher than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Gold prices may continue to rise. All Charts via TradingView What are your views on the US Dollar, Gold, and Bitcoin – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-dollar-weakness-persists-bitcoin-hits-a-new-all-time-high-gold-consolidates-20240311.html

2024-03-10 18:00

Market Wrap and Week Ahead - w/c March 11th Recent commentary from ECB President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggest that both central banks are looking to start a series of interest rate cuts in June. In his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that interest rates could soon be on the way down. ‘If the economy does as expected, we think carefully removing the restrictive stance of policy will begin over the course of the year’, Powell said Thursday. Friday’s latest US Jobs Report also showed the closely watched unemployment rate rise unexpectedly from 3.7% to 3.9%, while average earnings slowed further. US Dollar Falls Further After US NFP Beat But January Number Revised Lower Also Thursday, post-policy decision commentary from ECB’s Lagarde also pointed to the end of H1 as an appropriate time to start cutting borrowing costs. ‘We are making good progress towards our inflation target and we are more confident as a result…But we are not sufficiently confident. We need clearly more evidence and more data. We will know a little more in April, but we will know a lot more in June.’ Earlier, ECB staff projections cut inflation and growth forecasts for the next three years. Euro (EUR/USD) Drifts Marginally Lower, ECB Leaves All Policy Rates Unchanged In Japan, recent commentary from Bank of Japan officials suggests that if the current round of wage negotiations produce the expected results, then the BoJ may well start to hike interest rates soon, with the markets already pricing in a 60%+ chance of a hike this month. High Importance Economic Releases and Events – w/c March 11th. There are a few important data releases that can inject a further shot of volatility into a range of asset classes. The standout next week is the latest US inflation report, followed by UK employment and growth data. Learn how to trade economic data releases and events with our complimentary guide Gold, Nasdaq 100, Nvidia This week saw gold continue to push higher and make a couple of fresh record highs. The precious metal is being driven ever higher on a combination of increased rate cut expectations, Chinese demand, and safe haven buying. Gold Daily Price Chart US indices pushed marginally higher over the week although Friday’s sell-off, noticeable in the Nasdaq, is worth taking note of. Friday’s sell-off, while damaging, still leaves Nasdaq in a bullish trend with the indices making an unbroken series of higher lows and higher highs over the past five months. Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart One company that bucked its recent bullish trend, Nvidia, turned sharply lower on Friday. Chip giant Nvidia is one of the largest quoted companies and has an oversized impact on various US indices. It will be worth following Nvidia next week to see if Friday’s move was an aberration. Nvidia Daily Chart All Charts using TradingView Technical and Fundamental Forecasts – w/c March 11th British Pound Weekly Forecast: GBPUSD Looks Overextended at 7-Month High The Pound looks set to start a new trading week at more-than seven-month highs against a United States Dollar broadly weakened by expectations that interest-rate cuts are surely coming. Euro Weekly Forecast: Gains Look Vulnerable in the Week Ahead This article explores the euro’s fundamental and technical outlook, examining pivotal factors that may influence price movements in the upcoming week. Gold Price Outlook – Rally Looks Set to Continue on Positive US Rate Cut Backdrop The recent record-breaking gold rally seems likely to continue as US interest rate cuts are now seen starting at the end of H1 US Dollar Forecast: US CPI to Spark Next Big Move - EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD February's U.S. inflation data is poised to ignite heightened market volatility in the upcoming week, playing a pivotal in shaping the near-term outlook for the U.S. dollar. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/markets-week-ahead-gold-soars-rate-cuts-near-nasdaq-and-nvidia-wobble-20240310.html

2024-03-10 04:50

US DOLLAR OUTLOOK – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY The U.S. dollar retreated sharply this past week, pressured by falling U.S. Treasury yields However, the tide may turn in the greenback’s favor if upcoming U.S. CPI data tops estimates February’s U.S. inflation numbers will be released on Tuesday morning Most Read: USD/JPY Sinks on Bets BoJ Will End Negative Rates Soon, US Inflation in Focus The U.S. dollar fell sharply last week, pressured by falling U.S. Treasury yields on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon begin to reduce borrowing costs for the US economy. By the end of the week after all the twists and turns, the DXY index had plummeted by 1.10%, marking its worst weekly performance since early December. US DOLLAR INDEX VS US BOND YIELDS Source: TradingView Although Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the central bank is not yet sufficiently assured that consumer prices are on a sustained path toward convergence to the 2.0% target to slash interest rates imminently, he also suggested that policymakers are "not far" from gaining greater confidence in the inflation outlook to finally pull the trigger. Eager to discover what the future may have in store for the U.S. dollar? Find comprehensive answers in our quarterly forecast! Get it today! Powell's remarks to Congress, coupled with mixed U.S. employment figures that revealed an unexpected uptick in the jobless rate to 3.9% in February, bolstered bets that the Fed could deliver its first cut of the cycle in June, raising the odds of this event to 57% on Friday from 52% two days earlier. The chart below shows current Fed meeting probabilities. Source: CME Group Looking ahead, while U.S. dollar bears have regained the upper hand, the tables could turn in the coming days. For example, if February's US inflation data, to be released on Tuesday, beats consensus estimates by a wide margin, mirroring January's upside surprise, the mood could change at the drop of a hat, allowing bulls to mount a comeback. The following table provides an overview of Wall Street CPI forecasts as of Friday. UPCOMING US INFLATION REPORT CPI numbers indicating minimal progress on disinflation should be bullish for the U.S. dollar, as it could spark a hawkish repricing of the Fed’s roadmap. This is because, in such a scenario, investors would expect the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer, which would mean a delay in monetary policy easing. Meanwhile, a subdued inflation report below consensus estimates should be bearish for the greenback. This would validate Wall Street’s dovish outlook, leading to an extension of the recent pullback in yields. Given the potential market impact of the upcoming consumer price index survey, traders should follow its release closely, paying particular attention to the trend in core metrics. Want to know where EUR/USD is headed over the coming months? Explore all the insights available in our quarterly forecast. Request your complimentary guide today! EUR/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has rallied sharply in recent days, pushing past several important thresholds during the upswing. If gains pick up traction over the coming week, a key ceiling to monitor emerges at 1.0980, followed by 1.1020. Subsequent strength would then shift focus to trendline resistance at 1.1075. Conversely, if sellers unexpectedly stage a comeback and drive prices lower, the first technical floor to keep an eye on is located at 1.0890. In the event of further losses beyond this point, the spotlight will be on confluence support at 1.0850 and 1.0790 thereafter. EUR/USD PRICE ACTION CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Curious about what lies ahead for the Japanese yen? Find comprehensive answers in our quarterly outlook. Claim your free copy now! USD/JPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY plummeted this week, slipping below 147.50 and closing at its lowest point since early February. If losses continue over the coming trading sessions, initial support appears at 146.50. Below this level, attention will be on the 200-day simple moving average slightly above the 146.00 mark. On the other hand, if U.S. dollar bulls manage to trigger a rebound, resistance is anticipated around 147.50. Beyond that threshold, all eyes will be on 148.90. Looking higher, a further move to the upside could see market interest shift towards 149.70, followed by 150.90. USD/JPY PRICE ACTION CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView GBP/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD soared this week, clearing a major resistance near 1.2830 just before the weekend. If this bullish breakout is sustained in the days ahead, buyers may feel emboldened to initiate an attack on the psychological 1.3000 level. Above this point, additional gains will bring 1.3140 into view. On the flip side, if sentiment turns bearish all of a sudden and prices start moving downwards, support lies at 1.2830, followed by 1.2715. Moving lower, attention will be on the 50-day simple moving average hovering around 1.2675. GBP/USD PRICE ACTION CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-forecast-us-cpi-to-spark-next-big-move-eur-usd-usd-jpy-gbp-usd-20240310.html

2024-03-09 06:00

Euro Forecast: Bearish EUR/USD has risen consistently since mid-February Markets think the Fed will cut rates first, a scenario which favors Euro bulls This week might see consolidation if not necessarily heavy falls for EUR/USD Most Read: USD/JPY Sinks on Bets BoJ Will End Negative Rates Soon, US Inflation in Focus The euro has seen strong gains against the United States dollar in the past few sessions thanks to commentary from both the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on March 9 that he and his colleagues are ‘not far’ from cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank left all its monetary policy settings alone for March and, while accepting that the inflation picture seemed more encouraging, suggested that more data will be needed before record-high Eurozone borrowing costs can come down. Official US labor data saw the overall unemployment rate tick up as wage growth relaxed, two factors clearly taken by the market as keeping rate reductions firmly in focus, even as overall non-farm payroll growth beat expectations. Want to know where the euro may be headed? Explore all the insights available in our quarterly outlook. Request your complimentary guide today! In a nutshell the Euro is gaining because all of the above leaves markets with the clear impression that US rates will fall before the Eurozone’s do. However, given that markets remain pretty sure that both will be coming down, the Euro’s current outperformance might seem a little too much, and the prospect of some consolidation only rational. At any rate the coming week will bring more scheduled economic data action for the Dollar than the Euro. German inflation numbers are on tap Tuesday and will attract attention. Price rises are expected to have decelerated in February, but to remain well the key 2% level. Germany is of course the Eurozone’s largest economy but the ECB’s need to balance the needs of all the others as well may rob these numbers of impact. Big tradeable numbers out of the US this coming week will include retail sales, consumer sentiment and inflation. Any or all of these will feed into interest-rate expectations but, on the basis that the Euro is now elevated and, possibly vulnerable, it’s a bearish call this week. EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Chart Compiled Using TradingView EUR/USD bounced at trendline support of 1.06917 back in mid-February and has risen strongly since with plenty of green candles on the chart. It has now edged back up into a trading band it crashed out of in early February, on the way down to that support. That band now offers its own support at 1.08524, the intraday low of January 17 and 18. The range top comes in at 1.09981, the intraday peak of January 5 and 11. Any near-term push up to that level would probably leave the Euro looking quite seriously overbought, however, as EUR/USD’s Relative Strength Index has already edged up towards the 70.0 regions which suggests overbuying. Psychological resistance at 1.10 looks like a tough nut for Euro bulls right now, with sellers emerging on approaches to that level. The current broad uptrend channel offers near-term resistance at 1.09788, with reversals likely to consolidate ahead of the channel base, now at 1.08282. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-euro-weekly-forecast-gains-look-vulnerable-in-week-of-modest-data-20240309.html

2024-03-08 16:30

Most Read: US Dollar Falls Further After US NFP Beat but January Number Revised Sharply Lower USD/JPY extended losses and sank to its lowest level since early February on Friday, supported by speculations that the Fed may be closer to getting greater confidence that inflation is on a sustained path towards the 2.0% target to start reducing borrowing costs. The dollar's lackluster performance before the weekend was compounded by the February employment report, which revealed a spike in the unemployment rate to its highest level in two years. This raised concerns about potential cracks appearing in the U.S. labor market. However, the main factor behind USD/JPY's retreat was likely the media leak that the Bank of Japan is warming up to the idea of ending negative rates at its March meeting, spurred by expectations of substantial pay raises in this year's annual wage discussions between unions and big businesses. Curious about what lies ahead for the Japanese yen? Find comprehensive answers in our quarterly trading forecast. Claim your free copy now! Previously, we contended that a lasting yen recovery seemed unlikely and not imminent, at least until the BoJ finally pulled the trigger and relinquished its extremely accommodative position. With that moment drawing nearer, the Japanese currency could be on the brink of a robust comeback. While the outlook for USD/JPY is starting to dim, its near-term fate is not yet decided. For example, if next week's U.S. CPI report surprises to the upside as in the previous month, there can be room for a brief rebound before a more sustained pullback later in the year. For this reason, traders should closely watch the inflation release. UPCOMING US CPI DATA USD/JPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY retreated further on Friday, sinking below support at 147.85/147.50 and hitting its lowest mark in more than a month. If this breakdown is sustained, the next key floor to watch emerges at 146.60, followed by 146.10, the 200-day simple moving average. Below this area, all eyes will be on 145.00. On the flip side, if buyers mount a comeback and spark a bullish reversal unexpectedly, resistance looms at 147.50/147.85 and 148.90 thereafter. On continued strength, market attention is likely to transition towards 149.70, followed by 150.90. USD/JPY PRICE ACTION CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-jpy-sinks-on-bets-boj-will-end-negative-rates-soon-us-inflation-in-focus-20240308.html

2024-03-08 13:55

US Dollar Price and Charts NFP revision sends the US dollar lower. Unemployment rate rises, average monthly earnings fall. The headline NFP number beat market expectations by a healthy margin but this was more than compensated for by a steep downward revision to January’s release. In February, 275k new roles were created compared to market forecasts of 200k, while the January figure of 353k was revised down to 229K, a difference of 124k. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, compared to a prior level and market forecast of 3.7%, while average hourly earnings fell to 0.1% compared to 0.3% market consensus. Aside from the headline NFP figure, this month’s report shows a weaker-than-expected US labor market, and underpins market expectations of a 25 basis point cut at the June 12th FOMC meeting. The US dollar slipped further release and is currently resting on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 102.50. A cluster of old highs and lows around 102.00 may slow any move lower before the 71.8% Fib retracement at 101.17 and the December 28th multi-month low at 100.74 come into focus. US Dollar Index Daily Chart Charts via TradingView What is your view on the US Dollar and Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-dollar-falls-further-after-us-nfp-beat-but-january-number-revised-sharply-lower-20240308.html