2024-03-08 11:52

Ethereum (ETH) Prices, Charts, and Analysis: Ethereum eyes $4k ‘big figure’ technical resistance. ETH/BTC spread closes in on prior resistance. Ethereum has rallied by over 80% since the January 23rd low print at $2,165 producing a fairly constant series of higher highs and higher lows. The one major short-term sell-off on Tuesday, March 5th was quickly recovered, underpinning the recent strength of the move, and an attempt on the $4k ’big figure’ resistance level seems likely as long as current market sentiment remains upbeat. As always with an asset class as volatile as the cryptocurrency sector, strong risk management is needed. Today’s US Jobs Report can move a range of asset classes, including the cryptocurrency space, in either direction so attention to the 13:30 release is needed. The weekly Ethereum chart shows the strength of the recent move and this has taken ETH into heavily overbought territory using the CCI indicator at the bottom of the chart. This needs to be normalized to allow Ethereum to continue to move higher. Above $4k a series of descending highs from October 2021 appear ahead of the mid-May 2021 swing high at $4,400. Above here, the all-time high at $4,860 comes into focus. Initial support on the weekly chart at $3,585. Ethereum Weekly Price Chart Ethereum Spot ETF – The Next Cab Off the Rank? Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin this week, regaining a substantial portion of the underperformance seen this year. Resistance at the 0.6050 area has held since early January and may do so again at the next attempt, but a break above here brings 0.6260 back into focus. ETH/BTC is back above all three simple moving averages, and while the CCI indicator is closing in on an overbought reading it remains well below the two heavily overbought readings seen this year. Ethereum/Bitcoin Daily Spread Chart All charts via TradingView What is your view on Ethereum – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ethereum-eth-price-chart-looks-primed-for-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks-20240308.html

2024-03-08 09:03

US Dollar, Gold, and Bitcoin Analysis, Prices, and Charts Fed and ECB are confident, but not confident enough yet to start cutting rates. Gold continues to rally, Bitcoin primed for another ATH US NFPs the next driver of price action. In his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that interest rates could soon be on the way down. ‘If the economy does as expected, we think carefully removing the restrictive stance of policy will begin over the course of the year’, Powell said Thursday. He added ‘I think we are in the right place…We are waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down to 2%. When we do get that confidence, and we’re not far from it, it will be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restriction so that we don’t drive the economy into recession.’ Earlier in the session yesterday, the European Central Bank kept all monetary policy settings unchanged as expected, but staff projections revised inflation and growth forecasts lower. Speaking at the press conference after the decision, ECB President Christine Lagarde also gave a small nudge that rate cuts are on the horizon. ‘We are making good progress towards our inflation target and we are more confident as a result…But we are not sufficiently confident. We need clearly more evidence and more data. We will know a little more in April, but we will know a lot more in June.’ Financial markets are now fully pricing in a 25bp ECB rate cut at the June 6th meeting, while the probability of a similar-sized Fed rate at the June 12th FOMC meeting is in the mid-high 70% area. This firming of upcoming rate cuts by the Fed has continued to push the US dollar lower. After posting a multi-week high of 105.02 on February 14th, the US dollar index has fallen steadily to a near-two-month low of 102.85. Over the same time frame, gold has rallied from a low of $1,984/oz. to a current fresh high of $2,164/oz. Gold Daily Price Chart IG Retail trader data shows 41.77% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.39 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 1.00% lower than yesterday and 10.75% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.36% higher than yesterday and 45.06% higher than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Gold prices may continue to rise. The latest US Jobs Report (NFPs) will be released at 13:30 UK today and will drive price action going into the weekend. An above-forecast headline number may slow the decline of the greenback, but not for long, while a below consensus print will likely see the US dollar decline further, boosting the price of gold further into record territory. Revisions to prior releases will also be worth noting. Bitcoin traders will also have one eye on today’s NFP report, with the largest crypto-currency by market cap looking to re-test its all-time high. While the current demand and supply mismatch, driven by spot Bitcoin ETF demand, and the upcoming halving event are the dominant forces behind Bitcoin’s recent rally, lower interest will help underpin the latest move. A positive technical setup for Bitcoin will also likely see fresh record highs in the days ahead. Bitcoin Daily Price Chart All Charts via TradingView What are your views on the US Dollar, Gold, and Bitcoin – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-dollar-remains-weak-gold-and-bitcoin-eye-fresh-highs-as-us-nfps-near-20240308.html

2024-03-08 00:25

US DOLLAR FORECAST – EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD The U.S. dollar and financial markets will be very sensitive to the upcoming U.S. jobs report February’s nonfarm payrolls data could guide the timing of the Fed’s easing cycle This article discusses the technical outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD Most Read: Gold Price Forecast - US Jobs Data to Energize Rally or Squash It, Possible Scenarios The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release on Friday February’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls figures. The upcoming NFP survey holds the potential to ignite volatility and force investors to reassess the Federal Reverse’s monetary policy outlook, so traders should prepare for the possibility of wild price swings heading into the weekend across key assets. Economists anticipate that U.S. employers added 200,000 workers to their ranks last month, building on the momentum of 353,000 jobs created in January. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 3.7%, underscoring the enduring tightness of the labor market. However, recent employment data has consistently outperformed estimates, increasing the risk of yet another upside surprise. Want to know where the U.S. dollar is headed over the medium term? Explore key insights in our quarterly forecast. Request your free guide now! If hiring activity beats projections by a wide margin, investors may be forced to abandon hopes of central bank easing in the second quarter, exposing the widening gap between Wall Street's desire for rate cuts and the Fed's pledge to begin removing restrictive policy only after policymakers have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2.0% target. In the circumstances described above, interest rate expectations are likely to reprice in a more hawkish direction, with traders pushing out the timing of the first FOMC rate cut to the second half of the year and scaling back the magnitude of future easing. This scenario could propel U.S. Treasury yields higher in the near term, allowing the U.S. dollar to erase some of its losses registered over the past few days. On the other hand, a lackluster NFP report, especially one with a significant miss in job creation, could galvanize the market’s belief that Fed cuts are coming in June, or possibly even May. This turn of events could weigh heavily on bond yields, accelerating the U.S. dollar's downturn. A headline NFP around or below 100,000 could trigger this response. UPCOMING US JOBS REPORT Wondering about the euro's possible trajectory? Dive into our quarterly trading forecast for expert insights. Claim your free copy now! EUR/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD rallied on Thursday, clearing major barriers in the process, and hitting its highest level since mid-January. Following this upswing, the pair has reached the gates of important resistance at 1.0950. Reaction here will be key, with a breakout possibly fueling a move toward 1.1020. On the flip side, if sellers unexpectedly mount a resurgence and drive the exchange rate lower swiftly, the first technical floor to monitor emerges around the psychological 1.0900 mark. Below this area, confluence support at 1.0850 will become the next key focus, followed by 1.0790. EUR/USD PRICE ACTION CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Eager to discover what the future holds for the Japanese yen? Delve into our quarterly forecast for expert insights. Get your complimentary copy now! USD/JPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY extended losses on Thursday, plummeting towards cluster support ranging from 147.85 to 147.50. Bulls need to fiercely defend this area; failure to maintain this technical band could pave the way for a drop towards 146.60. On further weakness, all eyes will be on the 200-day simple moving average. Alternatively, if buyers return and trigger an upside reversal, resistance can be identified at 148.90 and 149.70 thereafter. Moving beyond these thresholds, additional gains may motivate bulls to initiate an assault on horizontal resistance at 150.90. USD/JPY PRICE ACTION CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView Want to stay ahead of the British pound's next major move? Access our quarterly forecast for comprehensive insights. Request your complimentary guide now to stay informed on market trends! GBP/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD blasted higher on Thursday after taking out trendline resistance around 1.2715 in the previous session. If this breakout is sustained in the coming days, bulls could soon challenge the next major technical ceiling near 1.2830. Further bullish progress beyond this barrier will shine a light on 1.3000. Alternatively, if sentiment pivots back towards sellers and prices start trending downwards, initial support rests at 1.2715, followed by 1.2675, which corresponds to the 50-day simple moving average. Should these levels cave in, attention will fall squarely on trendline support at 1.2640. GBP/USD PRICE ACTION CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-us-jobs-report-to-guide-us-dollar-s-outlook-eur-usd-usd-jpy-gbp-usd-setups-20240308.html

2024-03-07 17:05

Most Read: Japanese Yen Surges Against USD As Markets Again Mull BoJ Policy Exit Gold prices shattered records this week, topping $2,150 an ounce. This vigorous rally has been fueled by a weakening U.S. dollar and falling Treasury yields on wagers that the Federal Reserve could start slashing borrowing costs earlier than suggested by policymakers. While Fed Chair Powell has signaled that the central bank is in no rush to cut rates and would need more evidence that inflation is converging to 2.0% on a sustainable basis before pulling the trigger, traders remain skeptical and are betting on the easing cycle starting as soon as June, spurred in part by a resurgence of the regional banking crisis. The disconnect between Powell's message and market expectations appears to be driving bond yields lower, reinforcing bullion’s appeal. For context, the yellow metal tends to rise when interest rates move down, as this reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Eager to gain insights into gold's future path? Discover the answers in our complimentary quarterly trading guide. Request a copy now! In any case, Friday's critical U.S. non-farm payrolls report will be the ultimate arbiter for Wall Street and the Fed. Economists predict the U.S. economy added 200,000 jobs in February, but an upside surprise should not be ruled out, with recent employment data coming consistently above estimates. A robust jobs report could vindicate Powell's relatively hawkish stance, prompting traders to unwind dovish bets on the FOMC’s policy path. This scenario should weigh on gold prices. Conversely, weak job growth could cement the belief in early rate cuts, sending precious metals even higher. UPCOMING US DATA Wondering how retail positioning can shape gold prices? Our sentiment guide provides the answers you are looking for—don't miss out, get the guide now! GOLD PRICE FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices (XAU/USD) smashed through December’s $2,150 peak this week, setting a new all-time high. If this bullish breakout is sustained in the near term, bulls may gain confidence to launch an assault on trendline resistance at $2,185. Despite bullion’s constructive technical outlook, caution is warranted, as extreme overbought conditions can give way to a market reversal. That said, if sellers reemerge, all eyes will be on $2,150. Below this area, significant support is lacking until $2,090, heightening the risk of a deep pullback in case of a breakdown. Further downward, the focus shifts to $2,065, followed by $2,040. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/xau-usd-gold-price-forecast-us-jobs-data-to-energize-rally-or-squash-it-possible-scenarios-20240307.html

2024-03-07 13:37

EUR/USD Prices, Charts, and Analysis EUR/USD edges back below 1.0900 after ECB policy decision. US NFPs are the next driver of EUR/USD price action. The European Central Bank kept all three key interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting, in line with market expectations. The central bank also released revised staff projections inflation and growth projections. ‘Staff now project inflation to average 2.3% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. The projections for inflation excluding energy and food have also been revised down and average 2.6% for 2024, 2.1% for 2025 and 2.0% for 2026… Staff have revised down their growth projection for 2024 to 0.6%, with economic activity expected to remain subdued in the near term. Thereafter, staff expect the economy to pick up and to grow at 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, supported initially by consumption and later also by investment.’ ECB Monetary Policy Decision Market projections for the first ECB 25 basis point rate cut remain firmly centered on the June 6th meeting with a total of just under 100 basis points of cuts predicted in 2024. EUR/USD moved a fraction lower post-decision after having tested, and rejected, the 1.09 handle yesterday and today. A cluster of recent highs and lows, and the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, guard the way back down to 1.0800, while a confirmed break above 1.0900 brings 1.0950 and 1.1000 into focus. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart via TradingView Retail trader data shows 42.38% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.36 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 1.91% lower than yesterday and 10.73% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.39% higher than yesterday and 18.79% higher than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/euro-eur-usd-drifts-marginally-lower-after-the-ecb-leaves-all-policy-rates-unchanged-20240307.html

2024-03-07 12:20

Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Analysis, Prices, and Charts USD/JPY is especially weak, even as the Dollar gets a broad bashing Reports suggest the Bank of Japan is moving closer to abandoning ultra-loose monetary policy It’s important to remember that these hopes have been dashed before Learn how to trade USD/JPY with our free guide The Japanese Yen could be set for its biggest day of gains against the United States Dollar this year as investors seem increasingly to believe that the Bank of Japan will soon start to retreat from its venerable, ultra-loose monetary policy. BoJ board member Junko Nakagawa said on Thursday that Japan’s economy was moving toward sustainably achieving a 2% inflation target, while a local news agency reportedly said that at least one board member is likely to favor the removal of negative interest rates at the March policy meeting which will release its decision on the 19th. If this sort of commentary stream keeps up, that looks like a serious date for the foreign exchange community’s diaries. The Japanese central bank has long been an outlier among developed-market authorities in actively attempting to generate some inflation while others have been forced to fight it. The prospect of a BoJ more in line with those others has understandably seen the Yen gain. It’s worth noting, however, that markets have looked for change from the BoJ before, only to see those expectations shattered by a central bank for whom the time was never quite ripe. Given rising prices and wage pressures there would seem to be more to the story this time around, however, and the March BoJ meeting will be fascinating. USD/JPY dropped by more than 1.5 Yen Thursday, appearing to stabilize in the European morning session. While the BoJ has been on investors’ minds, some broad Dollar weakness in the wake of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Congressional testimony in the previous session is also playing its part. He didn’t add much to what the markets already knew, however, reiterating that interest-rate cuts will likely be appropriate this year assuming data permit, but hearing this again was enough to send the Dollar lower. USD/JPY Technical Analysis USD/JPY Daily Chart Compiled Using TradingView USD has retreated back to levels not seen since early February, although it’s notable that the previously dominant uptrend from the lows of January had already been broken in the course of the range-trade seen between February 13 and 29. USD/JPY has fallen below the first Fibonacci retracement of its climb from those January lows to February 13’s significant four-month peak. That retracement comes in at 148.401 and it could be instructive to see whether the pair ends this week below that level. Should it do so there’s likely support in the 147.78 region ahead of the second retracement point at 146.84. Despite three sessions of falls USD/JPY remains significantly above its 200-day moving average. That now offers support at 146.095 and might be a tempting target for Dollar bears. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-yen-surges-against-usd-as-markets-again-mull-boj-policy-exit-20240307.html