2024-03-05 22:00

Bitcoin (BTC) Prices, Charts, and Analysis: Bitcoin prints a new ATH then slumps by $5k Crypto-relates stocks suffer reversals of differing degrees. The Next Bitcoin Halving Event – What Does it Mean? Bitcoin tagged a fresh all-time high mid-afternoon before turning sharply lower as sellers sent the market spiraling lower. The tagging of the ATH saw a wave of sellers appear with market commentary suggesting that selling by recent leveraged long positions accelerated the move lower. Currently, Bitcoin is within yesterday’s trading range, but a break and open below yesterday’s low at $62.3k may see the market sell off further. On the positive side, demand from Bitcoin ETF providers remains strong, underpinning BTC, while the recent bullish pennant pattern remains intact and suggests higher prices. Pennant Patterns: Trading Bearish and Bullish Pennants Bitcoin Daily Price Chart Ethereum is also off its high today but has outperformed Bitcoin by around 6%. While Bitcoin has rallied on spot ETF buying since mid-January, a handful of spot Ethereum ETFs are still waiting for the SEC’s decision. The SEC recently pushed back against Ethereum ETFs proposed by BlackRock and Fidelity and markets are awaiting the SEC’s decision on the VanEck Ethereum ETF that has its final decision deadline on May 23rd. If the VanEck ETH is approved, the SEC will likely approve the rest of the ETF filings to prevent a ‘first mover’ advantage, as it did with the Bitcoin ETFs. Ethereum Spot ETF – The Next Cab Off the Rank? Ethereum/Bitcoin Daily Spread Chart Crypto-related stocks were not immune to the sell-off with losses of varying degrees recorded. After making a multi-month high yesterday, Coinbase has given back around 2.5% so far today… Coinbase (COIN) Daily Chart …while MicroStrategy slumped by over 11%, again from a multi-month high. For context, MicroStrategy is still up nearly 75% since the start of the year… MicroStrategy (MSTR) Daily Chart …while Bitcoin Miner Marathon Digital Holdings is down 10% on the session so far and roughly flat on the year. Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) Daily Chart All charts via TradingView What is your view on the cryptocurrency space – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-btc-posts-a-new-all-time-high-before-prices-turn-sharply-lower-20240305.html

2024-03-05 18:17

S&P 500, Nasdaq News and Analysis S&P 500 gaps lower, lead by moves lower in Apple, Tesla and AMD. Nvidia holding firm Massive sales drop adds to negative sentiment after Apple fined $2 billion Tesla sinks after the EV maker experienced poor Chinese sales and a factory fire The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library S&P 500 Gapped Lower, Lead by Apple, Tesla and AMD The S&P 500 gapped lower today after Apple was hit with a fine yesterday and Tesla’s Chinese sales dropped by 25%, sending tech stocks lower. However, the index remains within the broader bull trend denoted by the blue upward sloping channel which encapsulated the majority of price action since the turn of the new year. The anticipation of multiple rate hikes this year buoyed stocks and even when a robust US economy forced those expectations down, US stocks soldiered on, spurred by global AI mania and the rush for advanced computer chips used to power AI processes. The S&P 500 now appears to have tested channel resistance once again and thanks to negative news from Tesla, Apple and AMD, has pulled back, even gapping lower at the open today. The 5,000 mark is the next level of support and loosely coincides with channel support, however, prices would still have some way to go before then and prior pullbacks have been extremely shallow. S&P 500 Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Massive Sales Drop Adds to Negative Sentiment after Apple Fined $2 Billion Apple was fined by a European court for anti-trust breaches and its treatment of Spotify on its Apple iStore which was made worse by news that Apple sales in China plunge 24% as its competitor Huawei gains traction. The negative news surrounding the stock have exacerbated the existing decline that ensued early in 2024. Now the stock has gapped lower two days in a row as the negative news filters in. Prices have breached the prior level of support at 176.15 and have 165 in sight but the RSI is oversold currently, meaning that the fast drop could slow in the coming sessions as things cool down. Apple Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Tesla Sinks after the EV Maker Experienced Poor Chinese Sales, Factory Fire Tesla, like Apple, has also fared rather poorly in the sales department as Chinese sales dropped to the lowest level in the past 12 months. In addition, a suspected arson attack at its German plant has halted operations with losses likely to be somewhere in the hundreds of millions (euros) according to Reuters. Tesla has also witnessed a general move lower for some time with the recent negative news only accelerating it in recent sessions. Imminent support appears at the February low of $175 and with the RSI not yet in oversold territory, there may still be room for the bearish move to run. Resistance lies at the late Feb high of $205.60. Tesla Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The Nasdaq Sees Notable Gap Lower, Surpassing Prior Support Zone The tech-focused Nasdaq 100 Index sank below the prior zone of resistance which offered up some support ahead of the open today at 18,100. In the end it didn’t prove to offer much support and prices continue to trade well below it but the key is to see a close below the zone if we are to see a potential continuation towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The Nasdaq is still at elevated levels thanks to the outstanding performance of Nvidia and the positive outlook for the company for Q1 2024. Nvidia appears to be trading flat on the day at the time of writing and may resist the general declines seen elsewhere as investors may see the pullback as a time to take profits. Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Powell in focus tomorrow and Thursday, then the ECB decision and finally on Friday, markets will all be focused on the NFP data and whether we will see a more moderate rise in the jobs market for February. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/s-p-500-nasdaq-ease-after-apple-and-tesla-lead-indices-lower-20240305.html

2024-03-05 15:00

Crude Oil (WTI) Main Talking Points: US Crude still doesn’t look comfortable above $80/barrel Its overall uptrend remains in place, however This week will bring its share of event risk Crude Oil prices fell initially on Tuesday, with investors apparently less-than reassured by China’s latest economic-revival plans, but they have pared losses through the European morning. Worries about Chinese energy demand have been a problem for oil bulls for some time as the world’s number two economy struggles to regain anything like its pre-pandemic vigor. Beijing has announced its intentions to ‘transform’ its development mode, and address endemic overcapacity, but its 2024 growth target of 5% perhaps only served to remind investors that China remains in the slow lane by its own recent standards. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (the so-called ‘OPEC Plus’ group) has extended production cuts into this year’s second quarter, but that move was widely expected and didn’t affect prices much. More broadly the market remains caught between the prospect of plentiful supply from non-OPEC producers, and uncertain demand chances as the industrialized economies struggle with meager growth or, in some cases, outright recession. Some economists think supply could tighten into next year, however, as production booms seen last year in the likes of the United Stats and Guyana won’t necessarily be repeated in 2024. Conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine also put upward pressure on prices, and its notable that, despite investor wariness, the overall uptrend for US crude prices remains in place. This week will bring plentiful economic news out of the US, culminating in Friday’s release of the official non-farm payrolls data which sent the Dollar soaring last month. Signs that the US economy continues to motor should probably be good news for the oil market but, probably only in so far as rate cuts remain on the table this year. Closer to the market, the Energy Information Administration’s snapshot of oil inventories for last week will be released on Wednesday. US Crude Oil Technical Analysis Daily Chart Compiled Using TradingView The oil market is highly dependent on fundamental forces of supply and demand, geopolitics and global growth. Find out why in our 'Core Fundamental of Oil Trading' guide below: The US West Texas Intermediate Benchmark is inching up towards a trading band last seen in late October and early November 2023 which bars the way back to that year’s highs. The base of that band currently offers resistance at $80.21. Prices are hovering toward the middle of a broad uptrend band which suggests reasonable support at $74.23 and resistance at $82.69. Price moves have been smaller in recent days, however, and there are signs that the uptrend band could be narrowing, a process which might be explained by this week’s significant economic event risk. Retracemment support comes in at $77.76, and the market will probably retain its overall bullish bias above that point, IG’s own sentiment data finds traders extremely bullish at current levels, with fully 74% long. This is the sort of rather extreme positing which might argue for a contrarian bullish play, even if only a short-term one. Stay up to date with the latest market news and themes driving markets by signing up to our weekly newsletter: --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/crude-oil-prices-struggle-as-china-growth-plans-fail-to-convince-20240305.html

2024-03-05 13:00

Japanese Yen Prices, Charts, and Analysis Rising inflation and wage pressures seen. USD/JPY upside is limited. Learn How to Trade USD/JPY with our Complimentary Guide In an interview with Reuters earlier today, Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Hideki Murai said that early signs of rising inflation and wages were becoming evident in the economy, boosting market hopes that an end to Japan’s multi-decade era of ultra-loose monetary policy may soon be coming to an end. “We need to revitalise the economy by shifting away from one that prioritizes cost cuts to one where a positive cycle of higher growth and wages kicks in,” Murai said. “We’re gradually seeing such a positive cycle fall into place.” This positive outlook follows on from recent commentary by Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata who said that the central bank’s goal of sustainable 2% inflation is ‘finally in sight’. Japanese Yen Grabs a Bid, Emboldened by Bank of Japan Talk Today’s commentary shifted interest rate hike hikes marginally but not enough to noticeably strengthen the Japanese Yen. According to market probabilities, there is now a 40% chance that the BoJ will hike rates at this month’s meeting, although June remains the most likely meeting for the central bank to take interest rates out of negative territory. USD/JPY continues to trade just above the 150 level although the pair are finding it difficult to move higher. Further upside is limited with the 151.90 multi-decade high a formidable level of resistance to take out, especially after the recent official commentary. The downside looks the path of least resistance with a few levels of support of prior swing lows and all three simple moving averages before the 145 area comes into view. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Retail trader data 21.93% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 3.56 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 3.12% higher than yesterday and 13.50% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.83% higher than yesterday and 6.43% higher than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. What is your view on the Japanese Yen – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-yen-usd-jpy-on-edge-as-signs-of-wage-pressures-appear-20240305.html

2024-03-05 09:22

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis Gold prices surge ahead of key US economic data Gold’s upside breakout holds up despite overbought signals Key events/data in focus: US services PMI, Fed testimony, ECB, NFPs The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Gold Prices Surge Ahead of Key US Economic Data Gold continues to build on gains over the last two trading sessions where the precious metal rose just under 3.5%, or by $70. Gold prices are not far from the all-time high reached in December of last year and the recent uptick in volatility has some parts of the market expecting a retest of the significant marker. 30-Day Implied Gold Volatility (GVZ) Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow There hasn’t been a commensurate drop in US yields or indeed, the dollar, to warrant such a rise but there has been a lot of gold buying from central banks around the world and this could finally be filtering into the paper price of gold. In addition, markets are growing increasingly confident that the Fed will cut rates in June, which may be helping to fuel this rally to some degree. Lower interest rates help to make the non-interest bearing metal more attractive and tends to result in higher gold prices. Of course, the safe haven attraction of gold should not be dismissed, as major conflicts in eastern Europe and the Middle East drag on. However, equity markets point to positive risk sentiment for the time being as major indices achieve all-time highs, effectively lessening the degree to which gold's safe haven appeal is assisting to prop up prices. Gold’s Upside Breakout Holds up Despite Overbought Signals Gold has broken out of the prior downtrend where we witnessed lower highs and lower lows, although, the majority of price action traded sideways throughout a large period during that time. The $2050 proved to be a level of importance, representing a key psychological level which also coincided with trendline resistance. Supported by the 50-day simple moving average, XAU/USD has powered ahead and has not looked like stopping. The RSI has entered into deeply overbought territory but gold prices have shown little intention of a pullback. $2082 (prior all-time high) presents the next level of support with the new all-time high of $2146.80 in focus as resistance. Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Key Events/Data in Focus: US Services PMI, Fed Testimony, ECB, NFPs This week, the most impactful events/data is likely to be non-farm payrolls and the ECB rate setting meeting but there is a lot that traders need to be aware of. US services PMI data is due today and after some worrying sings in Friday’s manufacturing print, markets will be looking for confirmation if the services data reveals signs of a slowdown. Jerome Powell is due to testify in front of congress tomorrow as well as Thursday and the ECB is set to announce updates to its monetary policy. Friday sees non-farm payrolls enter the fray after two very encouraging prints suggesting the jobs market is thriving. One side note is that today is also ‘Super Tuesday’ – the day that sees the majority of US states cast their votes in the presidential primaries. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-prices-surge-ahead-of-key-us-data-all-time-high-in-sight-20240305.html

2024-03-04 18:30

Nasdaq 100 (US Tech) Analysis Historically, March presents a tricky month for the Nasdaq in an election year but tends to witness impressive full year gains Nasdaq posts a slow start to the week ahead of economic data Major risk events in the week that lies ahead: services PMI, Fed talk and NFP The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library March Madness: Nasdaq Tends to Underperform in March During Election Years With the presidential race well under way, it may be useful to see how the tech-heavy Nasdaq has performed in March in prior election years when the incumbent president was up for reelection. The data does not make for good reading as March typically represents the second worst month of the year (ranking 11th out of 12 months) and sees an average decline of 1.6% for the month, according to data going back to 1950. Source: Data courtesy of @AlmanacTrader, table recreated by Richard Snow Nasdaq posts a slow start to the week ahead of key economic data The Nvidia hype has propelled the Nasdaq higher at the start of a month that has historically proved to be a drag on the index in prior election years. While prior data may be insightful, the first point of consideration should always be price action. The index has provided short-lived pullbacks which served as opportunities to reenter the bullish trend. Last week, price action broke and closed above the prior zone of resistance around 18,100. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has lagged behind bullish price action but has provided a dynamic support as the bullish trend continues. 18,100 remains relevant in the event a short-term pullback transpires, especially after Apple was handed with a $2-billion fine over anti-trust breaches in the EU. Momentum appears well intact as the MACD indicator trades above zero while the RSI flirts with overbought territory. Nasdaq Daily Chart (US Tech 100) Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Major Risk Events in the Week Ahead This week there is a notable amount of Fed communication, as officials provide their takes on the US economy before the media blackout commencing this Saturday. Amongst the speakers is Jerome Powell as he prepares to testify in front of congress on Wednesday and Thursday. Economic data has been strong in general, but Friday’s US manufacturing data provided a potential sign of concern due to the lower move in the ‘new orders’ sub-index. New orders are typically seen as a forward-looking indicator which will likely shift the focus to tomorrow’s services PMI data for confirmation. Then, on Friday, US non-farm payroll data is expected to show an addition of 200,000 jobs having been added in February – which would add to the recent trend of strong jobs data. The unemployment rate is also expected to hold firm at 3.7%, well below the theoretical natural rate of unemployment which is said to be around 4.4%. Stay up to date with the latest news and market themes driving markets by signing up to out weekly newsletter: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/nasdaq-bulls-maintain-upward-trajectory-ahead-of-us-data-fed-speakers-20240304.html