2024-03-04 16:30

USD/JPY FORECAST USD/JPY trades higher on Monday, supported by rising U.S. Treasury yields The week is marked by high-impact events that could trigger market volatility Powell's testimony before Congress and the NFP report will take center stage Most Read: Gold Breaks Out, EUR/USD Eyes ECB; Powell, BoC & NFP in Focus USD/JPY climbed upwards on Monday, rising about 0.2% to 150.36, supported by increasing U.S. Treasury yields, with the U.S. 10-year bond back above 4.20% in late morning trading in New York. This week, markets are laser-focused on a series of critical data releases that hold the potential to significantly impact the pair's direction. Tokyo's inflation report, a leading indicator for Japan's overall price trends, starts things off today. In terms of expectations, the core CPI gauge is projected to have accelerated to 2.5% y-o-y in February from 1.6% previously. A higher-than-anticipated print may prompt the Bank of Japan to rethink negative rates sooner, which could benefit the yen. In the U.S., Tuesday's ISM services report will be a key focus. Analysts anticipate a modest decline in the February headline PMI index to 53.0 from the previous reading of 53.4. Traders should be aware that any significant deviation from this forecast could spark volatility by altering expectations surrounding the U.S. central bank’s policy outlook. The stronger the data, the better for the U.S. dollar. Eager to gain clarity on the U.S. dollar's future trajectory? Access our quarterly trading forecast for expert insights. Secure your free copy now! Wednesday brings Fed Chair Powell's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. His testimony before the House Financial Services Committee will be closely scrutinized for insights into the timing of the first FOMC rate cut of the cycle. If Powell reaffirms his message that policymakers are "in no hurry to ease rates," we could see USD/JPY drift higher in the coming days. The week caps off with the all-important February U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Wall Street’s consensus anticipates 200K jobs added, but recent employment data has consistently outperformed expectations. That said, a notably strong report might indicate continued labor market resilience, potentially pushing back the Fed's rate-cutting timeline. This scenario should keep USD/JPY biased to the upside for now. Want to stay ahead of the yen's next big move? Delve into our quarterly forecast for comprehensive insights. Request your complimentary guide now to keep abreast of market trends! USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS After bouncing off technical support late last week, USD/JPY climbed further on Monday, steadily approaching horizontal resistance at 150.85. Bears must vigorously defend this ceiling to dampen bullish sentiment; a failure to do so may trigger a rally towards last year's peak around the 152.00 mark. On the other hand, if sellers mount a comeback and push prices lower, support can be identified near 149.70. Below this key floor, focus would shift towards 148.90, and subsequently towards 147.50, coinciding with the 100-day and 50-day simple moving averages. USD/JPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-jpy-starts-week-strong-tokyo-inflation-ism-services-powell-nfp-in-focus-20240304.html

2024-03-04 14:36

Oil (Brent Crude, WTI) News and Analysis OPEC+ extends supply cuts for Q2, Russia forced into further cuts Brent crude oil starts the week on the back foot despite extra Russian cuts WTI oil signals bullish fatigue as prices pullback towards key level The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library OPEC+ Extends Supply Cuts for Q2, Russia Forced into Further Cuts The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, otherwise known as OPEC+, decided to extend supply cuts into the second quarter of this year, as expected. Therefore, the market reaction was rather muted at the start of the week despite the one surprising detail of the decision which was the additional Russian cuts of 471,000 barrels per day (bpd) – a result of lower refinery runs due to Ukrainian drone strikes. Oil importers and consumers have benefitted from lower oil prices and a general decline in the US dollar since their respective highs in September/October. The global growth slowdown has materialized via the reality of technical recessions in major economies like the UK and Japan, with the European Union close on their heels. China, which makes up the majority of oil demand growth each year, has also struggled to revitalise its economy, keeping oil prices capped. This week, Chinese officials meet to decide on growth targets for the year and other strategic measures but to date, accommodative measures have proven to provide limited relief. The growth target is expected to be set at the same level as 2023, “around 5%”. Another factor weighing on oil upside is the record levels of non-OPEC supply entering the market, with the US the main contributor. The graph below shows the longer-term uptrend in US oil production. Source: Refinitiv, @JKempEnergy, EIA, prepared by Richard Snow Brent Crude Oil Starts the Week on the Back Foot Brent crude oil accelerated at the end of last week, rising on the back of a weaker dollar. The dollar eased in response to some potentially concerning manufacturing data in the US as a forward-looking indicator, ‘new orders’ turned lower. Naturally, markets will be more focused on US services figures tomorrow to confirm if a similar uptick has emerged in the sector responsible for the majority of US GDP. At the start of this week, Brent crude is rather flat but trades above the prior level of resistance around $83.50. The next levels of resistance appear at $87 and $89 with price above both the 200 and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA). In the event bulls fail to build momentum from here, $82 appears as support which coincides with the 200 SMA and $77 remains the next level of significance to the downside. Brent Crude Oil (UK Oil) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The oil market is heavily dependent on the forces of demand and supply, geopolitics and global economic growth. Find out all of the fundamental considerations all oil traders should be aware of: WTI Oil Signals Bullish Fatigue as Prices Pullback Towards Key Level The WTI chart presents the broader uptrend in oil, but signs of fatigue appear ahead of channel resistance. Friday’s upper wick and today’s slightly slower start, hint at a shorter-term pullback towards $77.40 and the 200 SMA. Economic data from the US this week (services ISM, NFP) and important meetings in China, could direct oil prices towards the end of the week. Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/oil-price-outlook-opec-extends-supply-cuts-into-q2-wti-brent-ease-20240304.html

2024-03-04 12:30

British Pound (GBPUSD) Anlysis, Prices, and Chart Sterling is up against a generally weaker Dollar. Wednesday’s Spring Budget is the week’s big UK event There’s plenty of meat on the USD side too though, so it could be a volatile week. Learn how to trade GBP/USD with our free guide The British Pound starts a busy week with gains against a United States Dollar still feeling the pressure from last week’s news of a sharper-than-expected contraction in the manufacturing sector. Most of the big scheduled news for GBP/USD will come from the ‘USD’ side of things in the coming days, but Sterling’s home country will likely see some interest generated by Wednesday’s Spring Budget from Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt. After nearly fourteen years in power, the ruling Conservative Party lags badly in the polls. However, markets will likely be quick to take their anger out on Sterling if voters are offered any unfunded fiscal largesse, of the sort which broke the short-lived administration of former Prime Minister Lizz Truss back in 2022. After a shallow recession at the end of last year, the British economy is probably back to growth, but not impressive growth. And calls are increasing for more expenditure on threadbare public services while overall debt has already grown, to nearly 100% of Gross Domestic Product. Throw in the highest tax burden ever imposed in peacetime and few will envy Mr. Hunt his grim balancing act. Still, with both leading parties showing commitment to fiscal discipline (as if they have a choice), an unthreatening budget statement might leave Sterling unmoved. The rest of the week’s action will come from the other side of the Atlantic. Heavyweight US data is on the slate, including nonfarm payrolls and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is up before both Congress generally and the Financial Services Committee for scheduled testimony. Recall that payroll data sent the Dollar soaring last month with a wholly unexpected surge in job creation. Markets will be on watch for a rerun on Friday. GBP/USD Technical Analysis GBP/USD Daily Chart Compiled Using TradingView Sterling has been confined to a narrowing range since early February as in this, as in other markets, volatility has fallen sharply. The markets have moved from anticipating early interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year to pushing those bets further out, perhaps well into the second half. For now, GBP/USD looks trapped between resistance at 1.27110 and support at 1.25134. That latter level comes in just ahead of pretty solid retracement support at 1.24901. There’s a degree of caution around this market, however, After all, December’s four-month high of 1.28247 isn’t exactly far away, but the bulls show no inclination to retry it. For now sellers seem to appear on any durable break above the 1.27 psychological resistance point, to the point where the market is wary of this happening again this week. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/british-pound-gains-again-despite-uk-spring-budget-jitters-20240304.html

2024-03-04 09:02

Gold (XAU/USD) Price Analysis and Chart Gold rallies after US data miss. Gold trades in heavily overbought territory. Learn how to trade gold with our complimentary trading guide Most Read: Silver Tumbles Back Into Multi-Month Support Zone Last Friday’s disappointing US data releases sent gold spinning higher and back to levels last seen back in December last year. The US ISM manufacturing PMI missed market forecasts by a wide margin, and remained in contraction territory, with new orders falling from 52.5 in January to 49.2 in February. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment report also disappointed, missing both last month’s reading and market forecasts, again by a margin. These two releases pushed US rate cut expectations marginally higher and sent short-dated US Treasury yields sliding. Market forecast pushed total rate cut expectations for 2024 to 88 basis points, from 83 pre-data, while two-year US Treasury yields fell by around 10 basis points to 4.52%. US Treasury 2-Year Yield Ahead this week there are a few potentially market-moving data releases and events that need to be monitored. Fed chair Jerome Powell’s two-day testimony starts on Wednesday, the same day as noteworthy US ADP and Jolts data hits the screen. To end the week the monthly US Jobs Report (NFP) is released at 13:30 UK and will guide the dollar going into the weekend. This move lower in US bond yields gave gold a push higher, helping it push through prior levels of resistance and back to highs last seen in December last year. The first of these resistance levels, $2,070/0z. will now start to act as support ahead of $2,043/oz. There is little in the way of resistance between the current spot price and the December 4th spike high at $2,146.8/oz. apart from one technical indicator that is flashing a heavily overbought signal. The CCI indicator, at the bottom of the chart, is now showing an extreme reading over 250 and this is likely to temper any short-term move higher. In the medium- to longer-term, when this reading begins to normalize, then gold is likely to retest the record high seen at the end of last year. Gold Daily Price Chart Retail trader data show 44.64% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.24 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 5.91% higher than yesterday and 19.58% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.05% higher than yesterday and 44.53% higher than last week. See what these swings in positioning mean for the price of gold What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-xau-usd-price-probes-fresh-multi-month-highs-more-to-follow-as-nfps-loom-20240304.html

2024-03-03 18:00

Most Read: Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Breakout Continuation Hinges on US Jobs Data This week promises a healthy dose of potential market volatility, driven by a lineup of high-impact events from central bank decisions to the all-important U.S. jobs report. Let's break down some of the key catalysts to watch in the days ahead: Tuesday: Eyes on U.S. Services Activity The U.S. ISM Services PMI for February will offer an early glimpse into the health of the dominant services sector. While a modest decline to 53.0 is projected, any significant deviation from this estimate in the final result could spark large price swings in the U.S. dollar by shifting FOMC interest rate expectations. Wednesday: Central Bank Double-Header Bank of Canada (BoC): No change in interest rates is anticipated, with traders largely prepared for another dovish hold. The bank's tone and guidance on future rate policy should be closely watched for clues as to when the easing cycle might begin. Surprises here could create waves for the Canadian dollar. Fed Focus: Fed Chair Powell delivers the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress and later testifies before the House Financial Services Committee. This offers an opportunity for Powell to give further insight into policymakers’ current thinking, particularly the timing of future rate cuts. Want to know where the euro may be headed? Explore all the insights available in our quarterly outlook. Request your complimentary guide today! Thursday: European Central Bank Takes the Stage, Powell Redux ECB Decision: While no rate changes are anticipated from the ECB, recent weak European data could lead the institution to adopt a more dovish tone. Any signals that policymakers are starting to contemplate rate cuts in the near future should exert downward pressure on the euro. Powell’s Testimony Redux: Powell is scheduled to present his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to U.S. legislators, but this time, he'll address the Senate Banking Committee. However, with his Wednesday testimony still fresh in memory, this event shouldn’t bring groundbreaking revelations. Curious about what lies ahead for the U.S. dollar? Explore all the insights in our quarterly forecast! Friday: Jobs Report in the Limelight The week culminates with the February U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Consensus forecasts point to 200K jobs added, but remember, employment data has a history of delivering upside surprises recently. A significantly stronger-than-expected report could signal continued labor market strength, potentially delaying the Fed's rate-cutting cycle. This would be bullish for the U.S. dollar, but bearish for gold and risk assets. Conversely, weak job growth could fuel expectations of a more dovish Fed, sending interest rate expectations lower. In this scenario, gold could rise as the U.S. dollar slides. For a comprehensive overview of the factors that could impact financial markets and contribute to volatility in the upcoming trading sessions, peruse the thoughtfully curated selection of key forecasts by the DailyFX team. FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL FORECASTS British Pound Weekly Forecast: Sterling Becalmed as Spring Budget Looms The British Pound remains confined to narrowing ranges against the United States Dollar in a market where volatility has plummeted. Euro Trade Setups Ahead of ECB Decision – EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY Next week’s ECB meeting is unlikely to see any change in monetary policy, but post-decision commentary may give traders a better view when the first rate-cut is set to be announced. Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Breakout Continuation Hinges on US Jobs Data Gold surges past crucial resistance levels, hitting its highest mark since December of the previous year. The sustainability of this week's bullish breakout, however, depends on the upcoming U.S. jobs report. US Dollar Forecast: Markets Eye NFP After Manufacturing Scare US manufacturing data revealed a slowdown in ‘new orders’ and ‘employment’ sending the dollar lower on Friday. However, NFP data remains the focus next week. --- Individual Articles Composed by DailyFX Team Members https://www.dailyfx.com/news/markets-week-ahead-gold-breaks-out-as-eur-usd-eyes-ecb-powell-boc-nfp-loom-20240303.html

2024-03-02 18:00

GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK: Gold prices (XAU/USD) rally vigorously, reaching their highest level since late December However, these gains might be at risk of reversal next week if U.S. jobs data surprises higher The February U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled to be released on Friday morning Most Read: USD/JPY Recovers on Ueda's Dovish Remarks, Critical Tech Levels Ahead Gold prices (XAU/USD) staged a remarkable rally this past week, breaking past key technical thresholds to reach their highest point since December 2023. By Friday's close, the precious metal had notched a substantial weekly gain of 2.33%, settling near $2,082. Bullion's bullish momentum can be attributed in part to a moderate pullback in U.S. Treasury yields, a reaction triggered by two significant economic reports that left investors pondering their implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. To start, January's core PCE deflator came in at 0.4% m/m and 2.8% y/y, meeting consensus estimates. Wall Street, rattled by recent CPI and PPI data, had been bracing for another upside inflation surprise, but was relieved when the FOMC's preferred price gauge landed precisely on its expected mark. Eager to gain insights into gold's future path? Discover the answers in our complimentary quarterly trading guide. Request a copy now! Adding to the narrative, disappointing manufacturing PMI (ISM) figures showed an accelerated contraction last month, reinforcing the retreat in yields. Traders speculated that weak factory sector output may lead the U.S. central bank to start easing its stance earlier than initially envisioned. Looking ahead, traders should be attentive to the upcoming February U.S. jobs data for insights into the market's trajectory. A blockbuster report mirroring January's robust numbers would undermine hopes of an early Fed pivot toward rate cuts, potentially sending gold prices tumbling. On the other hand, if nonfarm payrolls figures underwhelm projections and hint at mounting economic headwinds, interest rate expectations are likely to recalibrate toward a more dovish outlook, weighing on yields. This scenario is poised to support precious metals. UPCOMING US JOBS REPORT Wondering how retail positioning can shape gold prices? Our sentiment guide provides the answers you are looking for—don't miss out, get the guide now! GOLD PRICE (XAU/USD) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold surged beyond trendline resistance at $2,035 and breached another key ceiling at $2,065 this past week, edging closer to surpassing late December's swing high around $2,085. Failure by bears to contain the price at this point might trigger a rally toward the yellow metal’s record in the vicinity of $2,150. On the flip side, if sellers stage a comeback and spark a bearish reversal, initial support appears at $2,065. Further losses below this level could lead to a retracement towards the 50-day simple moving average at $2,035. If weakness persists, attention will turn to the $2,010/$2,005 range. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/xau-usd-gold-price-forecast-bullish-breakout-continuation-hinges-on-us-jobs-data-20240302.html