2024-03-01 16:10

Most Read: Gold Price Outlook - Fundamentals & Technicals at Odds, What Now for XAU/USD? The yen posted small losses against the U.S. dollar on Friday, after a positive performance in the previous session, weighed down by comments by Bank of Japan’s Governor Kazuo Ueda indicating that inflation in the country is ebbing rapidly, and that the sustainability of the price goal is not yet in sight. Ueda's dovish remarks indicate that policymakers remain hesitant to pull the trigger and finally abandon negative borrowing costs, diminishing the likelihood of a surprise rate hike at the BoJ's March meeting—an outcome that certain traders on Wall Street had been speculating on. Looking ahead, for the Japanese currency to mount a lasting recovery, we’d need to see yield differentials to start favoring the yen. This is unlikely to happen meaningfully before the BoJ ends its sub-zero rate policy. Recent signals from the central bank hint that this shift could happen in April. From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY took a turn to the upside heading into the weekend, bouncing off support at 149.70. If gains accelerate in the coming days, resistance emerges at 150.85. On further strength and clearance of this region, attention will fall squarely on the 152.00 handle. On the flip side, if bears return and push prices decisively below 149.70, selling impetus could gather traction, paving the way for a possible retracement towards 148.90. Subsequent losses beyond this key floor could precipitate a descent towards 147.50, marginally above the 100-day SMA. Keen to understand how FX retail positioning can provide hints about the short-term direction of USD/JPY? Our sentiment guide holds valuable insights on this topic. Request your free copy now! USD/JPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-jpy-recovers-on-ueda-s-dovish-remarks-critical-tech-levels-ahead-20240301.html

2024-03-01 10:55

EUR/USD Prices and Analysis EU inflation moves lower but misses forecasts. EUR/USD testing the 1.0800 level again. Euro Area core inflation fell for the 7th straight month, data from Eurostat showed earlier, but missed expectations of a larger fall. EU core inflation is now at the lowest level in two years. Today’s release did little to shift interest rate expectations. Markets continue to forecast around 90 basis points of cuts this year – three or four 25bp cuts – with the June 6th meeting seen as the most likely starting point. A cut at this meeting would mean the ECB being the first major central bank to cut rates, leaving the Euro at risk of falling further. The daily EUR/USD chart shows the pair testing 1.0800 again, with the pair flashing a short-term negative signal as it opens and trades back below the 200-day simple moving average. A break below 1.0800 leaves prior support around 1.0787 vulnerable, along with the last simple moving average at 1.0788. Below here the February 14th multi-month low print at 1.0695 the next target. If the pair can reclaim the 200-dsma at 1.0828, then the 1.0866/1.0870 area comes back into play. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Retail trader data shows 54.99% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.22 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 10.29% higher than yesterday and 7.10% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 13.68% lower than yesterday and 6.70% lower than last week. What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/euro-eur-price-latest-eu-core-inflation-remains-sticky-eur-usd-testing-1-0800-again-20240301.html

2024-03-01 09:11

Japanese Yen (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY) Analysis USD/JPY surrenders prior gains ahead of the weekend EUR/JPY finds support ahead of ECB meeting next week The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library USD/JPY Surrenders Prior Gains Ahead of the Weekend USD/JPY is back above the 150.00 marker just one day after encouraging comments from BoJ board member Hajime called for a change in monetary policy now that the Bank’s 2% target is in sight. All parties (markets and the BoJ) now look ahead to crucial wage negotiations that are scheduled to wrap up around the 13th of March. Labour unions have been lobbying for sizeable wage increases and businesses have appeared largely receptive to the requests given inflation has breached the 2% mark for over a year already. After observing the yen's recovery from the late 2023 swing low, markets seem to favour the carry trade, which involves borrowing the cheaper yen in favor of investing in higher yielding currencies, over any notion of persistent yen strength. This is, of course, until we get an idea of whether Japanese firms agree to the highest wage increases in years. Wages appear to be the last piece of the puzzle and BoJ Governor Ueda has often referred to a ‘virtuous cycle’ between wages and prices as the main determinant for policy change. USD/JPY pulled back yesterday already and today the pair continues the move to the upside, above 150. A very narrow range has appeared between 150 and 150.90, with FX markets appearing unconvinced about FX intervention and an imminent policy change from the Bank of Japan. Risk management is key in such situations if the prior intervention from Japanese officials is anything to go by. Price swings around 500 pips have transpired in 2022 so there is great risk of a massive pick up in volatility. USD/JPY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow EUR/JPY Finds Support Ahead of ECB Meeting Next Week The ECB is due to meet next week Thursday where it is highly unlikely the governing council will vote to cut interest rates. ECB officials have been attempting to push back against rate cuts as they prefer to follow the US in such matters. However, Europe’s economic growth is stagnant at best, oscillating around 0% and with Germany tipped to already be in a recession. EUR/JPY looks to have found support at the previously identified zone around 161.70. The pair adheres to a longer-term bullish profile with prices above the 50 SMA and the 50 SMA above the 200 SMA. Another test of the 164.31 swing high is not to be discounted, particularly in the first two weeks of the month (before wage negotiations have concluded). EUR/JPY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Stay up to date with breaking news and major market themes driving the market. Sign up to our weekly newsletter Major Event Risk Ahead Later today Euro Area inflation for Feb is expected to drop from 3.3% to 2.9% for the core measure and expecting to see a similar decline in the headline measure from 2.8% to 2.5%. A lower all-round inflation print is likely to draw the attention to next week’s ECB monetary policy meeting where there is little expectation of a rate cut. Markets price in a strong probability that the first rate cut will take place in June despite Europe’s economy in need of support right now. The European Union has witnesses stagnant growth on the whole as quarterly GDP growth figures have oscillated around 0% for the last 5 quarters. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-yen-outlook-yen-appeal-proves-short-lived-wage-data-in-focus-20240301.html

2024-03-01 00:30

Most Read: Japanese Yen Analysis & Setups - USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY; Breakdown Ahead? Gold prices (XAU/USD) climbed on Thursday, pushing past the $2,040 threshold and reaching their highest level since early February at one point during the trading session, although gains seemed to be capped by a strengthening U.S. dollar. The precious metal’s positive performance was fueled, in part, by falling U.S. Treasury yields, which reacted to an in-line economic report. Specifically, January's core PCE deflator clocked in at 0.4% m/m and 2.8% y/y, just as projected. US PCE DATA Investors, rattled by the recent CPI and PPI data, braced for further inflation pain, but were relieved when the Federal Reserve’s favored price gauge landed precisely on its expected mark. This gave gold bulls an excuse to reengage long positions. Looking ahead, traders should not be taken aback if Thursday's rally proves to be short-lived. When markets come to terms with the fact that sluggish progress on disinflation and looser financial conditions could prompt the Fed to delay the start of its easing cycle, bullion may face renewed downward pressure. GOLD PRICE FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Focusing on gold’s outlook, technicals and fundamental analysis are currently at odds. That said, Thursday's bullish breakout, which saw XAU/USD push past trendline resistance and the 50-day simple moving average at $2,035, is clearly a positive sign. Should this move be sustained, a rally towards $2,065 may be on the horizon. Above this area, all eyes will be on $2,090. On the contrary, if sellers return and spark a bearish reversal below $2,035, sentiment toward the yellow metal could quickly sour. Under these circumstances, bears may gain confidence to mount an assault on the 100-day simple moving average, located around $2,010/$2,005. Further declines below this support zone could pave the way for a retreat towards $1,990. Wondering how retail positioning can shape gold prices? Our sentiment guide provides the answers you are looking for—don't miss out, get the guide now! GOLD PRICE (XAU/USD) PRICE CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-price-outlook-fundamental-technicals-at-odds-what-now-for-xau-usd-20240301.html

2024-02-29 18:30

JAPANESE YEN FORECAST – USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY The Japanese yen rallies following verbal intervention by Japan’s top FX diplomat However, a sustained recovery is unlikely to materialize until the Bank of Japan abandons its ultra-dovish stance This article discusses the technical outlook for USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY Most Read: US Dollar Slips after Core PCE meets Expectations, USD still needs a Driver The Japanese yen strengthened on Thursday following remarks by Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, Masato Kanda, indicating that the government is monitoring exchange rate fluctuations with urgency and is prepared to respond appropriately to suppress volatility. The verbal intervention by the country's chief foreign exchange diplomat suggests that Tokyo is uncomfortable with the yen's extreme weakness and may be considering intervening to shore up the domestic currency, which has depreciated more than 6% against its major peers this year. Although Japanese authorities may take comfort in today's temporary relief, a sustained yen recovery is improbable until later this year, when the Bank of Japan abandons negative rates. Though the timeline remains fluid, April could mark the moment when the BoJ finally pulls the trigger. Shifting focus from fundamental analysis, the next section of this piece will concentrate on evaluating the technical outlook for USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, dissecting critical levels that traders may observe as potential support or resistance in the coming days. Curious about what lies ahead for the Japanese yen? Find comprehensive answers in our quarterly trading forecast. Claim your free copy now! USD/JPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY fell on Thursday, briefly breaching technical support at 149.70. If this breakdown is confirmed on daily closing prices, sellers may gather impetus to instigate a push towards 148.90. Further losses below this area could precipitate a drop towards 147.50, slightly above the 100-day SMA. Conversely, if bulls reestablish firm dominance and catalyze a meaningful rebound, resistance emerges at 150.85. It's imperative for traders to closely watch this ceiling, as a breakout has the potential to reignite bullish momentum, setting the stage for a rally towards the 152.00 handle. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView EUR/JPY FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/JPY sank on Thursday but managed to hold above support at 161.50. Bulls must staunchly defend this floor; failure to do so could seriously damage sentiment and spark a deeper retracement towards 160.40. On further weakness, all eyes will be on the 50-day simple moving average near 159.85. On the flip side, if prices stabilize around current levels and take a turn to the upside, overhead resistance awaits around the psychological 164.00 threshold. Overcoming this technical barrier could see the pair extend gains towards 165.50 in short order. EUR/JPY TECHNICAL CHART EUR/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView Disappointed by trading losses? Equip yourself with knowledge to improve your strategy with our "Traits of Successful Traders” guide. Unlock crucial insights to avoid common pitfalls & costly errors. GBP/JPY FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/JPY extended losses on Thursday, slipping beneath trendline support at 190.20 and moving closer to another crucial floor at 188.50. Bulls must hold the line at 188.50 to thwart bearish momentum; any failure to uphold this floor increases the risk of a deeper slump toward the 50-day SMA at 186.35. On the other hand, if the pair mounts a rebound, resistance appears at 190.20, followed by 191.30, the multi-year peak established earlier this week. Clearing this obstacle might pose a challenge for the bulls based on recent price action, but a successful breakout could fuel a jump toward the 193.00 mark. GBP/JPY TECHNICAL CHART GBP/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-japanese-yen-analysis-setups-usd-jpy-eur-jpy-gbp-jpy-breakdown-ahead-20240229.html

2024-02-29 15:00

Gold Price and Analysis Gold prices have topped $2050 for the first time since February 2 Both headline and Core PCE inflation readings came in lower, as forecast Hopes for lower rates in the year’s second half remain intact Learn how to trade gold with our complimentary guide Gold Prices rose on Thursday following the release of a mixed bag of important economic numbers out of the United States. Perhaps the most important of these was the inflation snapshot in the Personal Consumption Expenditures series. This is known to be among the Federal Reserve’s favored pricing measures, so its presumed impact on monetary policy tends to make it a regular showstopper for markets. This time the numbers came in exactly as expected, with the headline price index up 2.4% in January, from December’s 2.6%, and the ‘core’ reading up by 2.8%, from 2.9%. This deceleration will keep rate cut hopes alive, even if they’re not likely to come especially soon. Still, the overall price index ticked up again on the month, rising by 0.3%, with the core gaining a more worrying 0.4%. Jobless claims figures were released at the same time and showed both new and continuing claims rising slightly ahead of forecasts. All up, these numbers probably won’t shift the dial on interest-rate expectations, with the first reduction now thought likely to be in June. However, they do underline that the inflation threat remains visible and that near-term rate reductions of any kind can’t be seen as certain yet. Some expected early rate cuts at the start of this year. Now the second half of 2024 seems like the earliest possible date. Yielding nothing, gold might be expected to do better when investors see lower rates and lower yields ahead, and it seems to have benefitted a bit from this impulse on Thursday. Gold prices added about $10/ounce after the data. Gold Prices Technical Analysis Gold Price Daily Chart Compiled Using TradingView Like many other asset classes and foreign-exchange pairs gold is range-trading beneath its recent significant highs. While the psychological $2000 point remains some way below the market, there is an incipient downtrend in place now from the peaks of December 29 which was tested right after the release of the data. It currently offers resistance at $2046.76, which appears to be holding. Near-term support is likely at 2017.31, which is the second Fibonacci retracement of the rise to December 4’s peaks from the lows of last October. The market last bounced there on February 23 and hasn’t retested that level since. IG’s sentiment indicator finds traders pretty evenly split about where gold goes from here. They have a modestly bullish bias, with 55% long at current prices. This doesn’t look like enough to break gold’s broader range, established since late November, but a durable break of that downtrend might make things a little more interesting. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-prices-rise-as-pce-data-show-inflation-decelerating-as-hoped-20240229.html