2024-02-28 13:58

US Dollar and Gold Analysis and Prices The US economy remained robust in Q4 2023. The US dollar drifted lower post-release, gold nudged higher. The US economy expanded by a robust 3.2% in Q4, the second estimate showed today, missing market forecasts of 3.3%. While the current Q$ estimate is lower than the strong 4.9% seen in Q3, the US economy remains in a very solid position and underpins the Fed’s current position of keeping rates at their current levels for longer in order to bring inflation sustainably back to target. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, ‘The increase inreal GDPreflected increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, non-residential fixed investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.’ The US dollar slipped marginally lower after the release but the move was negligible. The greenback turned higher earlier in today’s session, helped in part by technical support from the 200-day simple moving average. Traders will now be looking forward to Thursday’s US PCE data, the Federal Reserve’s favoured inflation reading. US Dollar Index Daily Chart Gold turned slightly higher post-release but remains stuck in a narrow, short-term trading range. Resistance is seen at just under $2,044/oz. while support is seen at $2,025/oz. ahead of $2,010/oz. Gold Price Daily Chart Charts via TradingView Retail trader data shows 62.45% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.66 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 8.38% higher than yesterday and 0.70% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.27% lower than yesterday and 10.22% lower than last week. See what this means for Gold What is your view on the US Dollar and Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-dollar-trims-early-gains-after-us-q4-report-gold-nudges-higher-20240228.html

2024-02-28 12:30

Japanese Yen (USD/PY) Prices and Analysis USD/JPY is holding below last year’s significant highs Markets have a lot to think about, from whether Tokyo will intervene to the possibility of a BoJ policy shift Steady USD/JPY gains have been replaced by range trade The Japanese Yen was slightly weaker against the United States Dollar on Wednesday in a market that appears to be getting warier of possible intervention by the authorities in Tokyo to shore it up. USD/JPY is range-trading nervously just below the peaks of late last year, which were as high as the Dollar had been since the late 1980s. While the Federal Reserve and many other central banks boosted interest rates significantly in an attempt to tame inflation, the Bank of Japan, which has been trying unsuccessfully to generate some domestic pricing power for many years, stuck with the loosest monetary policy in the world, negative interest rates, yield-curve control and all. Given the huge yield gap in the Dollar’s favor, USD/JPY strength is hardly surprising. However, while the export-oriented sectors of the Japanese economy might not mind a weaker Yen at all, there are signs that the Japanese government is getting a little tired of it. Warnings from that quarter that ‘rapid moves’ in the currency are ‘undesirable’ have been heard. Reuters reports that speculative short positions against the Yen increased massively in the week of February 20, and amount to a $10 billion leveraged wager on the Japanese currency falling still further. Given the recent resilience seen in Japanese inflation, there’s plenty of commentary out there suggesting that we could see interest-rate rises this year, and possibly in the first half. While any sign of this would probably give the Yen a lift, the yield differential between it and most other traded currencies will endure for a while yet. These are certainly interesting times for the currency. Those trying to guess what the BoJ will do next have some clues coming up. Japanese retail sales, industrial production and unemployment figures are all due for release in the next twenty-four hours. USD/JPY Technical Analysis USD/JPY Daily Chart Compiled Using TradingView Having climbed impressively since late December the market looks wary of topping the intraday high of 150.906 set on February 14 and appears wedded to a trading range between that and 149.809. That latter level was the intraday low of November 2 and, while it has edged below that level in recent days, USD/JPY always trades back above it quite quickly. Should that level give way there’s likely support around 149.13 ahead of first retracement support at 148.627. The uptrend from January 2 is currently under test, with the trendline lying quite close to the current market at 150.231. A break of that needn’t be terrible news for Dollar bulls, however as long as the broader range holds. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-yen-slips-market-seems-warier-of-intervention-chances-20240228.html

2024-02-28 11:00

FTSE 100, DAX 40, S&P 500 Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 little changed ahead of MPC member speech The FTSE 100’s recovery from last week’s 7,623 low amid strong earnings stalled at Friday’s 7,717 high while Tuesday’s low at 7,669 so far underpins ahead of today’s MPC member Mann speech. The 7,717 high needs to be exceeded for last week’s 7,750 six-week high to be back in focus. Further up lies the 7,769 December peak. Minor support below Tuesday’s 7,669 low can be spotted at Friday’s 7,675 low ahead of the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and last Wednesday’s low at 7,638 to 7,623. FTSE 100 Daily Chart Retail trader data shows 41.93% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.38 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.09% lower than yesterday and 18.34% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.76% higher than yesterday and 22.87% lower than last week. See what this means for the FTSE 100 Outlook DAX 40 once again trades at record highs The DAX 40 index seems to be unstoppable as it rallies to yet another record high around the 17,600 mark as the latest earnings season highlighted that European stocks remain undervalued compared to their American counterparts with regards to Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratios. This has attracted further investment in Europe’s largest economy as Germany’s consumer morale also improves slightly. Minor support is seen along the accelerated uptrend line at 17,464. Above the current record high at 17,607 lies the 18,000 region. Dax 40 Daily Chart S&P 500 consolidates further below record highs The S&P 500 continues to consolidate in low volatility above the psychological 5,000 mark, having come off its current February 5,111 record high made last week. The index is thus treading water ahead of today’s second estimate of US Q4 GDP growth rate and Thursday’s PCE inflation data as well as speeches by FOMC members Bostic and Williams. A fall through Tuesday’s 5,058 low would engage the 5,049 to 5,044 mid-February highs. While the 2024 uptrend line at 4,996 underpins, overall upside pressure should be maintained but the recent high at 5,111 may thwart future attempts of a new all-time high being seen. If overcome, however, the 5,200 region would be next in line. S&P 500 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-and-s-p-500-consolidate-while-dax-40-trades-in-new-record-highs-20240228.html

2024-02-28 09:09

AUD Inflation, RBNZ News and Analysis Australian inflation appears sticky, RBNZ signals potential peak in rates Aussie (AUD/USD) pullback gains momentum ahead of crucial US data Kiwi dollar (NZD/USD) erases hard fought gains on dovish repricing The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Australian Inflation Holds Firm, RBNZ Signals Possible Peak in Rates Wednesday morning provided a fair amount of data for the antipodeans with Australia’s monthly inflation indicator holding steady at 3.4% while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) issued a dovish hold on the official cash rate. The Australian monthly CPI indicator revealed no change to the 3.4% level reached over December, despite expectations of a slight lift. Thus, the Aussie dollar softened in the early hours of Wednesday morning but declines in the Aussie dollar were overshadowed by the move lower in Kiwi dollar after the RBNZ acknowledged the disinflation process taking place and issued concern over the country’s level of productivity. Aussie Pullback Gains Momentum Ahead of Crucial US Data AUD/USD continued the shorter-term bearish move after the monthly CPI indicator came in lower than expected but maintained the 3.4% level witnessed in December. The RBA’s experience with inflation has been a volatile one, twice having to resort to hikes after pausing interest rates. But markets appear satisfied that inflation is on the way down and the Aussi dollar reflects as much. The pair trades around 50 pips lower on the day in the early European/London session after revealing signs of bullish fatigue towards the end of last week. Prices have rejected a close above the April 2020 level of 0.6580, which has come into play on numerous occasions, and now appears headed for 0.6460. Key US inflation data tomorrow and today’s the second estimate for US Q4 GDP at 13:30 (GMT) may influence the pair should we see a material deviation from the advance print. Key Fed speakers are also due to make public appearances today. AUD/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Kiwi Dollar Erases Hard Fought Gains on Dovish Repricing NZD/USD, like the AUD/USD, has turned sharply lower to accelerate the recent signs of bullish fatigue present around 0.6200. The pair failed to close above the early December swing high of 0.6223 where successive daily candles revealed higher upper wicks – suggesting a waning of the bullish move. NZD/USD was bid higher as the market anticipated the potential for another rate hike this month which appears to have all but disappeared. The subsequent dovish repricing of the Kiwi dollar has resulted in an acceleration of prices to the downside with immediate support coming in at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), followed by 0.6050 – a key pivot point for the pair towards the end of last year. The MACD suggests momentum is shifting to the downside while the RSI still has some room to run before entering oversold territory. NZD/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Stay up to date with the latest market news and themes driving the market currently. Sign up to our weekly newsletter below: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/rbnz-issues-dovish-hold-and-aus-inflation-stands-firm-nzd-weakened-20240228.html

2024-02-28 00:20

Most Read: US Dollar Forecast - PCE Data Takes Center Stage; Setups on EUR/USD, GBP/USD EUR/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD saw a slight decline on Tuesday but managed to stabilize above the 1.0835 area, where trendline support intersects with the 200-day moving average. Bulls will have to defend this crucial battleground vigorously; failure to do so could usher in a move towards 1.0725. On further weakness, all eyes will be on the 1.0700 handle. On the flip side, if buyers regain the upper hand and push prices higher over the coming trading sessions, resistance can be identified at 1.0890, near the 50-day simple moving average. Sustained directional progress above this threshold could reinforce buying impetus, creating the right conditions for a climb toward 1.0950. Want to know where the euro may be headed? Explore all the insights available in our quarterly outlook. Request your complimentary guide today! EUR/USD PRICE ACTION CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView EUR/GBP FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/GBP has been entrenched in a prolonged downtrend, carving out a series of lower highs and lows since late December. This bearish phase, which resulted in a ~2.5% drop from peak to trough, culminated in a six-month low near 0.8500 earlier this month before a modest upside reversal. Following the recent rebound, the pair has made progress towards resistance near 0.8575. For sentiment towards the euro to sustain its improvement, bulls must decisively take out this ceiling. Should they succeed, a possible rally towards the 200-day simple moving average at 0.8610 could be on the horizon. On the flip side, if EUR/GBP is rebuffed from its present position and reverses course, support emerges at 0.8530, followed by 0.8500. Prices are expected to stabilize around these levels during a pullback prior to a potential turnaround, but a breakdown could empower sellers to launch an attack on 0.8450. Disheartened by trading losses? Empower yourself and refine your strategy with our guide, "Traits of Successful Traders." Gain access to crucial tips to help you avoid common pitfalls and costly errors. EUR/GBP PRICE ACTION CHART EUR/GBP Char Creating Using TradingView EUR/JPY FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/JPY eased slightly on Tuesday but remains tantalizingly close to its 2023 high near 164.00 – a major technical resistance worth watching in the coming days. It's premature to ascertain whether bulls will muster the strength to overcome this technical hurdle, but if they do, a potential advance towards the psychological 165.00 level could be around the corner. On the flip side, if sellers unexpectedly seize control of the market and trigger a downward shift, the first line of defense against a bearish assault presents itself at 161.50 and 160.50 thereafter. In the case of prolonged weakness, the 100-day simple moving average near 159.70 may become a focal point. Pondering the role of retail positioning in shaping EUR/JPY's near-term path? Our sentiment guide offers indispensable insights. Don't wait—claim your guide today! EUR/JPY PRICE ACTION CHART EUR/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-euro-technical-analysis-trade-setups-eur-usd-eur-gbp-and-eur-jpy-20240228.html

2024-02-27 19:00

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis Gold pushes on despite subdued volatility as the dollar and US yields ease Gold tracks trendline resistance and tests 50-day simple moving average The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Gold Pushes on Despite Subdued Volatility as the Dollar and US Yields Ease Implied gold volatility derived from the derivatives market remains subdued and shows little indication of a spike higher. Typically, gold prices rise during periods of elevated volatility and are more likely to peter out during periods of lower volatility. However, a softer dollar and slightly lower US yields on Tuesday helped extend gold’s bullish advance. Gold prices tend to move inversely to the dollar as a softer greenback provides a slight discount for foreign purchases of the precious metal. Implied 30-Day Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Gold Tracks Trendline Resistance and Tests the 50-Day SMA Gold has performed well considering markets have dialed back aggressive rate cuts for 2024. At the end of last year, 2024 was shaping up to be a strong year for gold as rate cuts were expected to arrive as early as Q1, with the new year expected to see around six separate 25 basis point (bps) cuts from the Fed. Lower interest rates make the non-interest-bearing metal more attractive and the safe haven appeal of the metal added another string to the asset’s bow at a time of increasing geopolitical tension. However, markets have realized the error in their ways and have been forced to meet the Fed around their initial forecast of three rate cuts for the year. Thus, yields have actually risen and yet gold has held up rather well. According to a report from Reuters, in January China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong reached its highest level since the middle of 2018, Central bank purchases have helped to support gold prices alongside middle class citizens looking to preserve wealth amid a beleaguered property sector. Gold appears all too happy to track alongside former trendline support, now resistance with the blue 50-day simple moving average capping upside for now. $2050 is the next hurdle to further upside while $2010 may signal a pullback towards $1985 but the lack of volatility means any move is likely to be a measured one unless US Q4 GDP (second estimate) or PCE data surprises everyone. Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Stay up to date with the latest breaking news and market themes that are driving the market currently by signing up to our newsletter: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-price-latest-xau-usd-holds-gains-awaits-key-us-data-20240227.html