2024-02-27 17:00

US DOLLAR FORECAST – EUR/USD & GBP/USD The U.S. dollar lacks directional conviction amid market caution ahead of a high-impact event on the U.S. calendar later this week Thursday's core PCE data release will seize investors’ focus This article carefully examines the technical outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD Most Read: Gold Price Forecast - Confluence Resistance Stifles Bulls, Focus Shifts to US PCE The U.S. dollar was largely flat on Tuesday, moving between small gains and losses, but displaying limited volatility in a context of mixed U.S. Treasury yields. Traders appeared to exercise caution, and many remained on the sidelines ahead of a high-impact market event on Thursday: the release of the core PCE deflator, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. January's core PCE is seen rising 0.4% compared to December, bringing the annual reading down from 2.9% to 2.8%. While the small directional improvement in the annual rate would be welcome, it is crucial to note that the CPI and PPI figures for the same period were substantially higher than anticipated. This creates the risk of a similar surprise in the upcoming PCE report. Another hot and sticky inflation print could force the FOMC to postpone the start of its rate-cutting phase to the second half of the year, sending interest rate expectations higher. The likelihood of a delayed easing cycle or less aggressive cuts than initially envisioned should exert upward pressure on bond yields, leading to a stronger U.S. dollar. Shifting focus away from fundamental analysis, the next segment of this article will hone in on scrutinizing the technical outlook for two major FX pairs: EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Here, we’ll evaluate price action dynamics and identify critical levels that could serve as support or resistance over the next few trading sessions. Wondering about the euro's future direction? Dive into our quarterly trading forecast for expert insights. Claim your free copy now! EUR/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD edged lower on Tuesday but found stability above the 1.0835 area, where trendline support meets the 200-day moving average. Holding this technical zone is key for the bulls. A breakdown could trigger a pullback towards 1.0725, with 1.0700 being the next potential defense line. On the flip side, if sentiment swings back in favor of buyers and prices resume their ascent, resistance emerges at 1.0890, near the 50-day simple moving average. Continued upside progress beyond this threshold could potentially fuel a rally towards 1.0950. EUR/USD PRICE ACTION CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Want to stay ahead of the pound's next major move? Access our quarterly forecast for comprehensive insights. Request your complimentary guide now to stay informed on market trends! GBP/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD rose modestly on Tuesday, consolidating above its 50-day simple moving average at 1.2680. If gains pick up pace over the coming sessions, trendline resistance at 1.2725 will be the first line of defense against a bullish attack. Above this ceiling, attention will turn to 1.2830. In the scenario of sellers reasserting control and initiating a bearish reversal, support can be spotted at 1.2680 and 1.2600 thereafter. A deeper pullback beyond these levels could expose a short-term uptrend line and the 200-day simple moving average around 1.2580. GBP/USD TECHNICAL CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/usd-dollar-forecast-pce-data-takes-center-stage-setups-on-eur-usd-gbp-usd-20240227.html

2024-02-27 14:41

Crude Oil Prices and Analysis Oil benchmarks looked set for early gains but have slipped back in the European morning The $77 support region has come back into play having been topped on Monday The overall uptrend endures but WTI looks more range-bound Crude Oil Prices failed to hold early gains on Tuesday although concerns about supply disruptions in the crucial Red Sea trade link continue to dominate the market. Attacks on shipping by Iranian-backed Houthi militia from Yemen, in support of the Palestinian cause in Gaza, continue, despite airstrikes aimed at stopping them by the United States and United Kingdom. Shipping is now avoiding the region if possible, pushing up journey times and costs. Nearly two billion metric tons of crude is moved by sea every year. US President Joe Biden has said that a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is ‘close’ but the extent to which any limited cessation would halt Houthi attacks remains unclear. Prices have topped $77/barrel in the past two sessions for US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude, with broad oil prices lifted further by signs of some demand resilience in China. Refineries there are reportedly still buying plenty of crude which has gone some way to lift the gloom over likely Chinese energy demand, a major headwind for oil prices in the past year. The market, like all others, still faces the likelihood that interest rates in the industrial economies are going to remain high for longer than many hoped at the start of the year. The extent to which incoming data and central bank commentary underpins this will be key. There’s plenty of both out of the US this week, along with more oil-specific inventory numbers from the Energy Information Administration. They’re coming up on Wednesday. US Crude Oil Technical Analysis Crude Oil Daily Chart Compiled Using TradingView The broad uptrend channel from the lows of December 14 remains in place but the market has become more obviously rangebound since February 8 and its this range which now seems more relevant, at least in the near term. It’s bounded to the topside by January 29’s intraday top of $79.25 which still stands out as the most significant recent high. To the downside we have $76.45, which is the first, Fibonacci retracement of the rise up that peak from the lows of December 14. The market has been below it on an intraday basis on four occasions this months but has always declined to close there. Failure of this support would put the upside channel base of $74.38 in focus. Bulls will need to consolidate their position above the psychological $78 mark if they’re going to push on to those highs of late January. They might do so, but they haven’t yet. Whether or not they can manage to keep the market above that point into month-end might be instructive. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/crude-oil-prices-slip-back-despite-red-sea-supply-worries-20240227.html

2024-02-27 12:47

Japanese Yen (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY) Analysis Japanese inflation beats forecasts but continues steady decline USD/JPY dips but remains in the ‘danger zone’ EUR/JPY uptrend remains intact AUD/JPY turns the corner ahead of monthly Australian CPI data The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Japanese Inflation Beats Forecast but Continues Steady Decline Inflation in Japan printed better-than-expected for the month of January, coming in at 2.2% vs the prior 2.6%. Markets appear to have bushed aside the recent easing of price pressures as inflation has been falling every month since October’s 3.3%. Instead they remain focused on the fact that the headline measure remains above 2% and the core figure surpassed expectations of 1.8% to come in at 2%. Inflation in Japan is scrutinized more than ever now that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) favours a scenario where interest rates can move out of negative territory. The BoJ has mentioned the two preconditions that will necessitate a hike in borrowing rates. The first, consists of inflation remaining stably and sustainably above 2% and the other condition centers around seeing wage growth move in a similar way. Learn how to prepare ahead of major, market moving events and high impact data with this easy to implement strategy: USD/JPY Dips but Remains in the ‘Danger Zone’ USD/JPY headed lower on Tuesday after January’s inflation data kept readings above 2%, strengthening the yen but not in a way that would suggest further appreciation. Prices remain above the 150.00 mark – a region that has witnessed two separate periods of FX intervention by the ministry of finance in 2022. Officials have denied that the level of USD/JPY is being watched but rather, unfavourable, volatile declines have been identified targeted for having a negative effect on the local economy. The pair trades around 150.23 at midday (GMT) but respects the psychological level of support at 150.00. The FX market has not regarded recent warnings by Tokyo officials as credible and have continued to favour carry trades, to the detriment of the yen. The pair is likely to see a pick up in volatility from tomorrow into Thursday when high impact US data in the form of US Q4 GDP (second estimate) and PCE data are due. Apart from that, there is little to suggest that the yen will gain favour particularly when you consider the one-sided positioning form large hedge funds and money managers. USD/JPY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow ‘Smart money’ positioning continues to accumulate on the short side for the yen as can be seen in the chart below, depicting the latest positioning data from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report. The downward histograms reveal the net position of large funds which is approaching recent lows as short positions have been added at a notable pace over the last few weeks. Source: Refinitiv Datastream USD/JPY is one of the most liquid and frequently traded currency pairs in the world. Learn the nuances involved in trading the pair below: EUR/JPY Uptrend Remains Intact EUR/JPY has been in the ascendancy, like many G7 currencies, as the yen weakened. The pair has traded comfortably above 161.70 and has recently entertained lofty ambitions of a return to 164.31 – the apex of the major 2023 advance. At the end of 2023, the pair retraced by around 38.2% of the major advance but found a solid zone of support that had previously repelled lower prices and has moved higher since then. The slightly lower move today reflects the optimism around an eventual move out of negative interest rates and what was technically an inflation report that beat expectations to the upside. The RSI is also revealing a comeback from overbought territory meaning a modest pullback would not go amiss. However, the MACD confirms that momentum still favours a bullish continuation over a longer time frame which may see the pair retest 164.31 in the absence of any intervention from officials in Tokyo. EUR/JPY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow AUD/JPY Turns the Corner Ahead of Monthly Australian CPI Data AUD/JPY revealed signs of potential bullish fatigue towards the end of last week where the Thursday and Friday daily candles presented long upper wicks. Monday witnessed a move lower as Asian-linked sentiment started the week on the back foot. Chinese indices snapped an eight-day run of gains at the start of the week to cool risk sentiment. Australian CPI data could help spur on the Aussie dollar as inflation is expected to have picked up in January with the estimate at 3.6% compared to 3.4% in December (year-on-year readings). The pullback may prove short-lived if the prior advance is anything to go by and also by virtue of overwhelming short positioning in the yen. AUD/JPY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Stay up to date with the latest breaking news and market themes driving markets. Sign up to our newsletter: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-yen-outlook-markets-prioritise-cpi-beat-over-lower-trending-prices-20240227.html

2024-02-27 09:08

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) Prices, Charts, and Analysis: Bitcoin back at highs last seen in November 2021. Coinbase, Robinhood, MicroStrategy surge on renewed cryptocurrency interest. Bitcoin continues its strong run higher as ongoing ETF buying and the upcoming halving event in mid-April fuel heavy buying. On January 10th, eleven spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved by the SEC, opening the door to a wide range of customers. Since mid-January one Bitcoin ETF, run by BlackRock, has already seen over $6.6 billion of inflows, helping to send the price of Bitcoin spiraling higher. On January 10th, Bitcoin opened at $46k compared to a current spot price of around $56.5k. With demand high, traders are looking at the upcoming Bitcoin halving, expected in mid-April, as the next driver of price action as block rewards are cut from 6.25 to 3.125, reducing supply. The Next Bitcoin Halving Event – What Does it Mean? The weekly chart shows BTC breaking above a recent period of consolidation around $52k and pushing higher. There is minor resistance from a couple of October 2021 prior highs around the $59.5k level before the $65k area comes into focus. As always with any cryptocurrency, care should be taken as sharp swings and volatile market conditions are to be expected. Bitcoin Weekly Price Chart Ethereum is moving higher aided by the strong Bitcoin tailwind and growing market belief that spot Ethereum ETFs may be approved at the end of May. While the May 23rd approval deadline for the VanEck ETF is seen as the key date to watch, there is still the possibility that the SEC will not approve this application, a decision that could send Ethereum sharply lower. Ethereum Spot ETF – The Next Cab Off the Rank? The next level of interest for Ethereum bulls is the late-March 2022 high at $3,582, a level just 10% away from the current spot price. Ethereum Weekly Price Chart Crypto-related stocks put in a very strong performance yesterday with some seeing double-digit gains. Crypto-currency exchange, Coinbase (COIN) broke above a multi-month high and ended the session 16.9% higher at a fraction under $194. Coinbase (COIN) Daily Chart Robinhood (HOOD), a regulated broker-dealer, jumped nearly 8% to a multi-month high of $15.50. Robinhood (HOOD) Daily Chart Microstrategy (MSTR) a software and cloud-computing company, now holds 193,000 bitcoin on its books after purchasing an additional 3,000 BTC recently for $155 million. Overall, MSTRs holds 193k BTC at an average price of $31,544, compared a spot BTC price just under $56.5k. Microstrategy rallied by nearly 16% on Monday. MicroStrategy (MSTR) Daily Chart All charts via TradingView What is your view on the cryptocurrency space – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-btc-usd-hits-57k-ethereum-eth-usd-touches-3-275-as-buyers-dominate-the-market-20240227.html

2024-02-26 23:50

Most Read: US Dollar Eyes US PCE for Cues on Fed Path; EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Setups Gold prices lost ground on Monday following a strong performance last Friday, pressured by rising U.S. Treasury yields - a situation that generally diminishes the appeal of the non-interest-bearing asset relative to fixed-income securities. In this context, XAU/USD finished the session around $2,030, slightly below a confluence resistance zone near $2,035. Forecasts suggest January's core PCE increased 0.4% month-over-month, resulting in a slight deceleration of the annual reading from 2.9% to 2.8%. However, traders should brace for the possibility of an upside surprise in the data, echoing the trends observed in the CPI and PPI surveys disclosed earlier this month. This could inject volatility into financial markets. UPCOMING US ECONOMIC DATA A red-hot PCE report showing stagnating progress in disinflation could push interest rate expectations in a hawkish direction on bets that the central bank would be compelled to delay the start of its easing cycle in response to setbacks in efforts to achieve price stability. This scenario should be bullish for yields and the US dollar, but would pose challenges for the precious metals complex. Wondering how retail positioning can shape gold prices? Our sentiment guide provides the answers you are looking for—don't miss out, get the guide now! GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices pivoted lower on Monday after failing to clear the $2,035 zone – an area of confluence resistance where a downtrend line converges with the 50-day simple moving average. If this bearish rejection is confirmed in the days ahead, a pullback towards $2,005 could be on the horizon. On further weakness, attention will be on $1,990, followed by $1,995. On the flip side, if buyers regain decisive command of the market and trigger a breakout beyond $2,035, bullish impetus may gather pace, reinforcing the upward thrust and laying the groundwork for a rally towards $2,065. Additional gains past this juncture might bring focus to $2,090 and subsequently $2,150—the all-time high. GOLD PRICE (XAU/USD) CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/xau-usdgold-price-forecast-confluence-resistance-halts-climb-focus-shifts-to-us-pce-20240226.html

2024-02-26 17:30

Most Read: US Dollar Forecast - US PCE to Guide Markets; EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Setups The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, was subdued, and displayed restraint on Monday despite a modest uptick in U.S. Treasury yields. Market participants appear to be leaning toward a cautious stance at the start of the new week ahead of a high-impact event on Thursday: the release of the core personal consumption expenditures deflator, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. January's core PCE is seen rising 0.4% compared to December, resulting in a marginal drop in the yearly rate from 2.9% to 2.8% - a small but constructive move forward. However, traders should be prepared for the possibility of official results topping forecasts, echoing the trends and patterns observed in the CPI and PPI reports unveiled earlier this month. UPCOMING US PCE REPORT In the event of an upside surprise in the data, we could see interest rate expectations drift upwards on wagers that policymakers will delay the start of the easing cycle and deliver only small cuts once the process gets underway. This scenario is likely to keep U.S. Treasury yields biased higher, creating a favorable environment for the greenback. Leaving fundamental analysis behind now, the next part of this article will focus on examining the technical outlook for three major U.S. dollar pairs: EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY. In this section, we’ll assess market sentiment and identify essential price levels that could act as support or resistance in the upcoming trading sessions. Eager to gain clarity on the euro's future trajectory? Access our quarterly trading forecast for expert insights. Secure your free copy now! EUR/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD rose on Monday, pushing past its 200-day simple moving average at 1.0835 – a positive technical development for the common currency. If the breakout is sustained in the coming days, buyers could be emboldened to initiate an attack on 1.0890. On continued strength, all eyes will be on 1.0950. On the other hand, if sentiment reverses in favor of sellers and prices fall below the 200-day SMA decisively, key support levels are anticipated at 1.0725, succeeded by 1.0700. Moving further to the downside, attention will turn to 1.0650. EUR/USD PRICE ACTION CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView USD/CAD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD ticked up on Monday after bouncing off trendline support and its 200-day simple moving average late last week. If upward momentum gains traction in the coming days, initial resistance appears at 1.3540, followed by 1.3585. Upside progress beyond these levels will draw attention to 1.3620. Alternatively, if prices pivot downwards, support stretches from 1.3485 to 1.3475. While this region may provide stability for the pair during a pullback, a breakdown could lead to a swift descent toward the 50-day simple moving average at 1.3415. USD/CAD PRICE ACTION CHART USD/CAD Chart Created Using TradingView Want to stay ahead of the yen's next big move? Delve into our quarterly forecast for comprehensive insights. Request your complimentary guide now to keep abreast of market trends! USD/JPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY edged higher on Monday, coming within striking distance from taking out a critical resistance at 150.85. Traders need to keep a close eye on this technical ceiling this week, as a clean and clear breakout could spark buying momentum and set the stage for a retest of the 152.00 handle. Conversely, if sellers unexpectedly gain control of the steering wheel and initiate a bearish swing, support can be spotted at 149.70 and 148.90 thereafter. Sustained losses beneath these important price thresholds could result in a retreat towards the 100-day simple moving average slightly above 147.50. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-eyes-us-pce-for-cues-on-fed-path-eur-usd-usd-cad-usd-jpy-setups-20240226.html