2024-02-26 14:25

Ethereum Spot ETF – The Next Cab Off the Rank? A spot Ethereum ETF is the latest talk of the market, and the anticipation is building on whether - if approved - it could replicate the success of its Bitcoin counterparts. An Ethereum ETF would allow investors to invest in Ethereum as easily as buying shares from their brokerage accounts. This would mean that the ETF would hold actual Ethereum tokens and the value of the ETF shares would fluctuate with the price of Ethereum. It's a significant step that could open the market to a broader pool of investors, particularly those who are uncomfortable with the technical aspects of purchasing and storing cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin Q1 Fundamental Outlook – Positive Tailwinds on the Horizon The potential success of an Ethereum ETF lies in its appeal to both retail and institutional investors. For both, it simplifies the process of gaining exposure to Ethereum's price movements. A spot ETF also offers a regulated and insured investment vehicle, mitigating the risks associated with the direct purchase and storage of digital assets. The path to launching a successful Ethereum ETF is not without challenges. Regulatory hurdles remain one of the most significant barriers. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been cautious in the past about approving cryptocurrency ETFs due to concerns over market volatility, liquidity, and potential market manipulation. Nevertheless, as the market matures and regulatory frameworks become more robust, these concerns may be alleviated - especially after the successful launch of spot Bitcoin ETFS - paving the way for an Ethereum ETF. Another challenge is the inherent volatility of cryptocurrencies. While volatility can present trading opportunities, it also increases the risk for investors. An ETF structure could help mitigate some of these risks by providing diversification and the backing of established financial institutions, but it's not a panacea. Investors need to have a clear understanding of the underlying volatility and be prepared for the ups and downs that come with investing in digital assets. Despite these challenges, the prospects for an Ethereum ETF are bright. Ethereum's blockchain technology underpins a vast ecosystem of decentralized applications (dApps), including finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and smart contracts. These applications demonstrate the utility of Ethereum beyond just a store of value, potentially increasing its attractiveness to investors. Ethereum 2.0: Switching to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) The success of Ethereum ETFs could also be influenced by the performance of existing Bitcoin ETFs. If these products continue to attract investment and provide a reliable, regulated way for investors to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies, it could create a positive environment for the introduction of Ethereum-based products. The prospect of a spot Ethereum ETF is a further development for traders and investors alike after the recent launch of a variety of Bitcoin ETFs. It represents a further maturation of the cryptocurrency market and a recognition of Ethereum's role in the future of cryptocurrencies within the financial system. While there are challenges ahead, including regulatory scrutiny and market volatility, the potential for Ethereum ETFs to open up the market to a wider audience is significant. What is your view on Ethereum – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ethereum-spot-etf-the-next-cab-off-the-rank-20240226.html

2024-02-26 12:30

British Pound (GBP/USD) Analysis and Charts GBPUSD bulls are trying to get back above $1.27 Strong US data this week could make that harder for them Retracement support looks very solid Learn how to trade GBP/USD with our free trading guide The British Pound continues to edge higher against the United States Dollar as a new trading week kicks off, as it has done for the past eight sessions. Sterling has been supported by some better news out of its home economy, with markets daring to hope that the recession the United Kingdom entered at the end of last year will be shallow. Investors have also noted the pushing back of bets on interest rate hikes in the US, and reckon that any similar moves in the UK are likely to come later still given the resilience of domestic inflation. Bank of England officials have proclaimed themselves relaxed about the market guessing that the next move will be a reduction but have not been drawn on when the process might start or how deep any cuts would be. The coming week could prove trickier for Sterling bulls as it contains very little UK economic news. There will however be some inflation data out of the US, in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures series. Its price index is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation indicator and signs of ongoing strength here won’t fail to give the Greenback an across-board boost. Another dead-cert market mover will be US durable goods order numbers on Tuesday. While we wait on those big numbers, Sterling bulls will keep trying to nudge durably above the $1.27 handle, but the longer this takes the more likely it will be that sellers will keep progress incremental. GBP/USD Technical Analysis The Pound is trying the upper limit of a smaller-sub range within its broader trading band. That offers resistance close to market levels at $1.27057, last Thursday’s intraday top. Above that point February 1’s peak of 1.27510 will come into focus, ahead of the broad-range top at 1.28294, the significant peak of September 24. Reversals will likely find support at 1.26724, and the range base of 1.25181. Below that retracement support at 1.24936 looks rock solid, as it has been since late November. IG’s own sentiment data finds traders split on where Sterling goes from here. There is a tendency to bearishness, which is perhaps not surprising after such a run of green daily candles, but it’s not overwhelming at 59%. This accords very well with the pair’s Relative Strength Index. At 56.2 currently, it’s edging up but there’s no clear sign of overbuying. The Pound could go some way above the sub-range top without triggering an overbought signal and, as the bulls seem confident, that seems the most likely course now. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/british-pound-edges-up-again-us-data-will-run-this-week-s-trade-20240226.html

2024-02-26 09:17

Australian Dollar (AUD) Analysis Asian indices ease at the start of the European session as markets eye further accommodation from China Aussie dollar posts a lower start to the week (AUD/USD) ahead of the monthly inflation indicator and US PCE Asian Indices Ease to Start the Week but AUS200 Remains Near Peak The MSCI Asia Pacific Index eased at the start of the week after US markets closed slightly in the red on Friday. However, the move lower did not affect what was a really positive week for US stocks, reaching a new all-time high on the S&P 500 with overall sentiment helping the Nikkei 225 reach the same feat. At the start of this week Chinese indices headed lower after a strong bullish run, brought about by large scale stock and ETF buying from state-linked investment companies. Markets appear to be looking for further accommodation from the state as the Chinese economy continues to struggle with credit growth, domestic consumption, disinflation, and the beleaguered real estate sector. Last week, the 5-year loan prime rate was adjusted lower to help lower mortgage financing costs and help stimulate appetite. Aussie Dollar Posts a Lower Start to the Week Ahead of Inflation Data The Australian dollar also heads lower at the start of the week after failing to break above 0.6580 at the end of last week. The pair attempted to trade above resistance on Thursday but ultimately withdrew towards the end of the trading session. The 0.6580 level has come into play on numerous occasions both as support and resistance and remains a key level, often separating the bullish and bearish moves. AUD/USD Daily Chart Source: Tradingview, Prepared by Richard Snow In addition, price has moved away from the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) with the next zone of support coming into play around 0.6520 followed by 0.6460. Monthly Australian inflation data is due in the early hours of Wednesday morning where it is forecast we'll see a slight rise in the measure from 3.4% to 3.5% as price pressures in January appear to remain robust. Inflation has been trending lower since the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to hike interest rates in November 2023. The decision to increase rates again was made in response to consecutive readings of higher general prices. This week the US PCE data stands out above the rest and will be complemented by the second estimate of US GDP for Q4, although, the second estimate tends not to provide as much impact as the advance figure unless there is a notable revision. AUD/JPY also appears to have discovered a period of resistance after the Thursday and Friday daily candles presented higher upper wicks around a prior level of resistance. This typically suggests a rejection of higher prices and a waning of bullish momentum. The uptrend is still very much intact with price action rising above the 50 and 200 day simple moving average. Resistance at 98.70 remains in play for the pair. AUD/JPY Daily Chart Source: Tradingview, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/aussie-dollar-outlook-aud-usd-finds-resistance-ahead-of-inflation-data-20240226.html

2024-02-25 18:00

General sentiment soared in a week dominated by Nvidia’s impressive performance and encouraging guidance for Q1 2024. The chipmaker helped the S&P 500 reach another all-time high with the Japanese benchmark index achieving the same feat after 34 years. Strangely enough, buoyant market sentiment brought about gains for gold and saw the dollar attempt to stabilise. Should PCE inflation data for January come in better-than-expected, the dollar decline may well continue – something that is likely to add to gold's bullish recovery. Sterling has performed well over the last week and with little to no ‘high impact’ data on the horizon, the currency may remain propped up on the whole. The Euro’s recent attempts to advance against a number of G7 currencies appear to be waning as price action hints towards fatigue at the end of this last week. Technical and Fundamental Forecasts – w/c February 26th British Pound Weekly Forecast: No News Could Be Good News For Bulls GBP/USD has been steadier than the UK data alone might suggest with markets convinced rate cuts are coming but not any time soon. That thesis should support sterling in a data-light week. Euro Weekly Forecast: Central Bankers Delay the Rate Cutting Cycle ECB governing council members reiterated a lack of urgency to cut interest rates despite improved wage growth data. Lack of bullish euro drivers suggest vulnerability. Gold (XAU/USD) Price Struggles for Direction, Silver (XAG/USD) Looks Boxed In The weekly gold candle shows a restrictive range of just $25 as the precious metal looks for a driver to help break its current lethargy. US Dollar Forecast: US PCE to Guide Markets; EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Setups This article explores the technical outlook for three major U.S. dollar pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. In the piece, we also discuss potential market scenarios ahead of key U.S. PCE data. Major Risk Events in the Week Ahead First up, Japanese inflation data could impact the yen even further should price pressures follow the recent trend lower – raising doubts around one of the Bank of Japan’s two conditions for policy normalisation. Potentially bullish for EUR/JPY but this is fraught with complexity as the Japanese finance ministry could deploy the use of FX intervention at any time. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is scheduled to provide an update on monetary policy where there is a 30% chance we could see another rate hike on Wednesday. Inflation has not come down as quickly as hoped and market estimations only envision a potential first rate cut in November. Learn how to prepare and strategise ahead of major news and data releases with our comprehensive guide on the topic , below: German unemployment and inflation data for Feb comes into view after the Bundesbank intimated that Germany may have already entered a recession. US data is likely to be seen as the major focus of the week. A second look at US Q4 GDP has the potential to provide intra-day volatility but a major reaction is unlikely in the absence of a massive deviation from the first estimate. Then on Friday, US PCE data provides another crucial piece of the inflation puzzle and could influence rate cut bets and, by extension, the US dollar. Chinese manufacturing PMI data is also due on Friday but it would appear that recent support measures are providing support for out of favour Chinese markets. Stay up to date with the latest market news and analysis as well as developing themes driving markets at the moment: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/markets-week-ahead-usd-euro-and-gold-eye-inflation-data-sterling-supported-20240225.html

2024-02-25 06:00

US DOLLAR FORECAST – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY This week's focal point on the U.S. economic calendar revolves around the eagerly awaited release of January's PCE data on Friday A stronger-than-expected report could propel the U.S. dollar upwards, whereas subdued results may have a bearish impact on the American currency This article carefully examines the short-term technical outlook for three key FX pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD Most Read: Japanese Yen Outlook - Turnaround Ahead; Setups on USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY Wall Street will be on edge this week ahead of a high-impact event on the U.S. calendar on Thursday: the release of core PCE data, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. This report is likely to amplify volatility and may alter sentiment, so traders should prepare for the possibility of wild price swings in order to better respond to sudden changes in market conditions. January's core PCE is forecast to have increased by 0.4% compared to the previous month, resulting in a slight decline in the yearly reading from 2.9% to 2.7% - a minor yet encouraging directional adjustment. However, traders should not be caught off guard if official results surprise to the upside, mirroring the trends and patterns seen in the CPI and PPI surveys a couple of weeks ago. UPCOMING US DATA Sticky price pressures, coupled with robust job growth and reaccelerating wages, may prompt the FOMC to delay the start of its easing cycle until the second half of the year and to deliver fewer cuts than anticipated. This scenario could shift interest rate expectations towards a more hawkish direction compared to their present outlook. Higher interest rates for longer may keep U.S. Treasury yields tilted upwards in the near term, establishing a fertile ground for the U.S. dollar to build upon its 2024 recovery. With the greenback displaying a constructive bias, the euro, pound and, to a lesser extent, the Japanese yen may encounter challenges transitioning into March. Eager to gain clarity on the euro's future trajectory? Access our quarterly trading forecast for expert insights. Secure your free copy now! EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD rebounded this past week, but failed to decisively recapture its 200-day simple moving average at 1.0825. It's imperative to closely track this indicator in the coming days, as a push above it may trigger a rally towards 1.0890. On further strength, attention will turn to 1.0950. Alternatively, if the pair gets rejected downwards from its current position and heads lower, technical support fist appears at 1.0725, followed by 1.0700. Beyond this threshold, additional weakness could prompt a retracement towards 1.0650. EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView GBP/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD advanced during the week but failed to take out its 50-day simple moving average at 1.2680. Surpassing this technical obstacle could be a tough task for bulls, though a breakout might usher in a move towards trendline resistance at 1.2725. Above this barrier, all eyes will be on 1.2830. In the scenario of sellers reasserting control and kickstarting a pullback, the first potential support area arises around the 1.2600 handle. Further losses past this juncture could pave the way for a decline towards trendline support and the 200-day simple moving average, located at 1.2570. GBP/USD TECHNICAL CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Wondering about the yen's prospects – will it continue to weaken or mount a bullish comeback? Discover all the details in our quarterly forecast. Don't miss out – request your complimentary guide today! USD/JPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY made further progress to the upside this week, coming within striking distance from breaching resistance at 150.85. Traders need to monitor this technical barrier carefully, as a successful breakout could energize buying momentum, potentially fueling a rally towards last year’s highs near 152.00. On the flip side, if sellers unexpectedly reclaim dominance and spark a bearish reversal, the first technical floor to watch lies at 149.70 and 148.90 subsequently. Sustained losses beyond these key support levels could trigger a retreat towards the 100-day simple moving average in the vicinity of 147.50. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-forecast-us-pce-to-guide-markets-eur-usd-gbp-usd-usd-jpy-setups-20240225.html

2024-02-23 11:11

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis Fed officials communicated that they are in no rush to start the cutting cycle amid a strong US economy, emboldened consumer and potential Red Sea escalation Gold prices have edged lower towards the end of the week as Fed officials spur on USD The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Fed Officials Happy to Delay Cutting Cycle, Seeking Further Progress on Inflation A number of prominent Fed officials voiced their opinions of the US economy, inflation and the timing of the first interest rate cut in what would be the next phase of central bank monetary policy after holding rates above 5%. The Fed’s Patrick Harker acknowledged the strength of the US economy alongside consumer spending and warned about the potential of cutting interest rates too early. He, like many others at the Federal Reserve, prefer to adopt the 'wait and see' approach with the goal of attaining greater confidence that inflation is under control. The Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Philip Jefferson sought to avoid a stop start approach when it comes to rate cuts later this year and is not focusing on one particular data point but instead is looking at a broader body of evidence that would point towards a rate cut. Overall, the Fed minutes and recent comments from Fed officials have been perceived as slightly hawkish, favouring the higher for longer narrative for now – lifting the US dollar and weighing on gold. Weekly Gains Under Threat as Fed Officials are in no Hurry to Cut Looking at the weekly gold chart it's clear to see gold prices have pulled back from weekly high, looking destined for another test of the zone of support around $2010. Since the start of the year gold prices have been trending lower but maintain the potential for spikes to the upside as the precious metal provides a safe haven appeal amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions. Fundamentally speaking gold prices hold onto a number of tailwinds for 2024 with its safe haven appeal being one of them but also the prospect of interest rate cuts, lower US yields, and a potentially weaker dollar all boding well for precious metal. Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The daily chart helps us focus on more granular price action details during a week that initially saw an upside continuation which has now turned lower after reaching resistance. The 50 day simple moving average came into play yesterday with prices tagging this level and retreating thereafter. The 50 SMA also coincides with the prior ascending trendline which now functions as resistance. Gold prices have continued where they left off yesterday, declining slightly as we head into the weekend. Next week US PCE data will add to the inflation data the Fed has been referring to and will factor into the decision-making process going forward. Inflation has proven relatively sticky over the last two months and the committee will be looking for further progress. $2010 emerges as support with $1985 thereafter. Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-weakened-after-fed-officials-signalled-a-preference-to-delay-rate-cuts-20240223.html