2024-02-23 09:21

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY - Prices, Charts, and Analysis German economy remains weak, official data shows. EUR/USD uptrend in focus. Learn How to Trade Economic News with our Free Guide German GDP fell by 0.3% in Q4 2023 compared to the third-quarter, and by 0.4% on the same quarter a year ago, data released by the Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) today confirmed. "The German economy ended 2023 in negative territory. In the final quarter, declining investment had a dampening effect on economic activity, while consumption increased slightly," saidRuth Brand, President of the Federal Statistical Office. In the first three quarters, GDP largely stagnated amidst a still challenging global economic environment. For the whole year of 2023, the most recent calculations have confirmed the year-on-year decline in economic performance of 0.3% (calendar adjusted: -0.1%). German Q4 GDP Release - Destatis The latest German Ifo readings were also released today with the headline business climate number in line with market expectations at 85.5, and a fraction higher than January’s reading. The Euro's recent move higher against the US dollar has stalled today with further progress being kept in check by the 200-day simple moving average. While this technical indicator was broken yesterday, the pair closed below the longer-dated moving average. A confirmed break higher – a close and open above the 200-dsma – would see the 50-dsma and a cluster of recent highs on either side of 1.0900 come into focus. Support is seen at 1.0787 down to 1.0760. EUR/USD Daily Chart The recent EUR/GBP pullback from the 0.8500 area has stalled with the 0.8580 zone proving difficult to breach. A break below the 0.8530 area could see the pair retest prior support around 0.8500again in the coming weeks. EUR/GBP Daily Chart Charts Using TradingView IG retail trader data show 72.75% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.67 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 8.32% higher than yesterday and 6.59% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 18.03% lower than yesterday and 11.50% lower than last week. What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/euro-eur-price-latest-eur-usd-testing-200-sdma-resistance-eur-gbp-slipping-into-support-20240223.html

2024-02-23 01:15

Most Read: Japanese Yen Forecast - Brighter Days Ahead; Setups on USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY Market participants will be on tenterhooks in the coming days ahead of a high-impact item on the U.S. calendar next week: the release of core PCE data – the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. This crucial event on the agenda is likely to stir volatility within the FX space, so the retail crowd needs to be vigilant and ready for unpredictable price swings. In terms of consensus estimates, core PCE is projected to have risen by 0.4% in January, bringing the annual rate down to 2.7% from 2.9% previously, a small but welcome step in the right direction. Traders, however, shouldn't be taken aback if the numbers surprise to the upside, echoing the patterns and trends seen in last week's CPI and PPI reports for the same period. Sticky price pressures in the economy, together with solid job creation and hot wage growth, could compel the Fed to delay the start of its easing cycle to the second half of the year, resulting in only modest adjustments once the process gets underway. Such a scenario could push interest rate expectations in a more hawkish direction compared to their current status. Higher interest rates for longer could mean upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields over the coming weeks – an outcome poised to benefit the U.S. dollar and reinforce its bullish momentum seen in 2024. With the greenback biased to the upside, pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD will face difficulties in maintaining positive performance in the short term. Gold prices could also struggle. Fundamentals aside now, the subsequent section of this article will revolve around examining the technical outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and gold prices. Here, we'll explore critical price thresholds that traders need to keep on their radar to prepare potential strategies in the upcoming sessions. Curious about what lies ahead for the euro? Explore all the insights in our Q1 trading forecast. Request your free copy now! EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has regained lost ground this week, but has yet to fully recover its 200-day simple moving average, currently at 1.0830. Traders should keep a close eye on this indicator in the coming days, bearing in mind that a push above it could give way to a rally towards 1.0890 and possibly even 1.0950. On the flip side, if prices get rejected to the downside from current levels and begin a rapid descent, technical support emerges at 1.0725. followed by 1.0700. From this point onwards, additional weakness may prompt market focus to shift towards 1.0650. EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView GBP/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD consolidated to the upside on Thursday, but fell short of clearing its 50-day simple moving average at 1.2680. Bulls may find it challenging to surpass this technical hurdle; however, a breakout could result in a move toward trendline resistance at 1.2725. Conversely, if sellers stage a comeback and trigger a market reversal, the first line of defense against a bearish attack lies around the 1.2600 mark. Additional losses beyond this point may create the right conditions for a slide toward trendline support and the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2560. GBP/USD TECHNICAL CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Wondering how retail positioning can shape gold prices in the near term? Our sentiment guide provides the answers you are looking for—don't miss out, get the guide now! GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold rose modestly on Thursday but hit a roadblock around $2,030, a key resistance zone where a downtrend line aligns with the 50-day simple moving average. Sellers need to defend this area vigorously to prevent bulls from reasserting dominance; failure to do so could result in a rally toward $2,065. On the other hand, if sentiment reverses in favor of sellers and prices begin to retreat, support can be identified at $2,005, positioned near the 100-day simple moving average. Further downside pressure may then bring $1,990 into focus, followed by $1,995. GOLD PRICE (XAU/USD) TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-s-bullish-bias-holds-steady-setups-on-eur-usd-gbp-usd-gold-prices-20240223.html

2024-02-22 18:05

JAPANESE YEN OUTLOOK The Japanese yen has depreciated sharply this year, but there's potential for its outlook to improve in the weeks to come The prospect of the Bank of Japan discontinuing negative rates early in the second quarter is likely to be supportive of the yen This article offers a detailed analysis of the technical prospects for USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY Most Read: US Dollar Trims Losses After Fed Minutes Caution Against Premature Rate Cuts The Japanese yen has weakened significantly against its top peers in 2024 on Bank of Japan’s dovish position. While major central banks around the world have lifted rates aggressively over the past two years to tackle inflation, the BoJ has stood pat, keeping its policy settings highly accommodative. The era of significantly relaxed monetary policy in Japan, however, could be drawing to a close, potentially as soon as the early months of the second quarter. This could herald the start of a sustained upswing for the yen, meaning the worst is likely over. If annual compensation negotiations between Japanese big firms and unions, slated to wrap up around mid-March, result in bumper pay increases north of 4.0%, policymakers may gain the confidence they need in the sustainability of wage growth to finally pull the trigger and move away from negative rates. We will learn more about the Bank of Japan's monetary policy outlook in the coming weeks, but the stars seem to be aligning for a rate hike in late March or, more likely, April. As markets attempt to front-run this scenario, the yen may gradually begin to mount a comeback. Want to know where the Japanese yen is headed over the coming months? Explore all the insights available in our quarterly forecast. Request your complimentary guide today! USD/JPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY climbed on Thursday, approaching resistance at 150.85. If gains pick up pace in the coming days and break above the 151.00 handle, buyers may get emboldened to initiate a bullish assault on last year’s high near 152.00. On the flip side, if sellers return and drive the exchange rate lower, technical support appears around 149.70, followed by 148.90. Further losses from this point onward may usher in a pullback towards 147.50 in the near term. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView Disheartened by trading losses? Empower yourself and refine your strategy with our guide, "Traits of Successful Traders." Gain access to crucial insights to help you avoid common pitfalls and costly errors. EUR/JPY FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/JPY extended its advance on Thursday, steadily approaching last year’s peak around the 164.00 handle. Bears need to strongly defend this ceiling; failure to do so might lead to an upward push toward trendline resistance at 165.00. In case of a bearish reversal, support is anticipated at 161.50 and 160.70 thereafter. On further weakness, all eyes will be on the 100-day simple moving average located near 159.60. Below this level, the 50-day simple moving average could act as the next shield against additional losses. EUR/JPY TECHNICAL CHART EUR/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView Wondering about the impact of retail positioning on the short-term trajectory of GBP/JPY? Our sentiment guide is the key to unlocking valuable insights. Don't miss out—grab your guide today! GBP/JPY FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/JPY rallied on Thursday, hitting a fresh multi-year high above 190.50. With bullish momentum intact, additional upside potential is likely in the short term, with the next resistance threshold at 192.50, followed by 196.00, marking the highs of 2015. Conversely, should the upward momentum wane, resulting in a market retracement, support is seen around the psychological 190.00 level, and subsequently at 188.50. Further down, bears are likely to set their sights on the 50-day simple moving average in the vicinity of 185.50. GBP/JPY TECHNICAL CHART GBP/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-japanese-yen-forecast-brighter-days-ahead-setups-on-usd-jpy-eur-jpy-gbp-jpy-20240222.html

2024-02-22 15:45

US Dollar (DXY) Latest Analysis and Charts S&P PMIs – services miss, manufacturing improves The US dollar holds earlier gains. The US service sector slowed down in February, while the manufacturing sector picked up, the latest flash PMIs showed today. According to data provider S&P Global, ‘US companies continued to report an expansion in activity during February, albeit at a slower pace. Output rose marginally as a softer uptick in services business activity weighed on overall growth. Manufacturing, meanwhile, saw a renewed increase in production amid an improvement in supply chains after adverse weather in January.’ Commenting on the data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The early PMI data for February indicate that the US economy continued to expand midway through the first quarter, pointing to annualized GDP growth in the region of 2%. Although service sector growth cooled slightly, manufacturing staged a welcome return to growth, with factory output growing at the fastest rate for ten months.” During the US session, four Federal speakers – Jefferson, Harker, Cook, and Kashkari - will give their views on the health of the US economy after last night’s FOMC minutes gave little away. US Dollar Trims Losses After Fed Minutes Caution Against Premature Rate Cuts The US dollar opened the European session around the 103.50 level before firming up during the day. The US dollar index (DXY) currently trades around 104.10 and is trying to break a week-long series of lower highs and lower lows off last Wednesday’s 105.02 high. US interest rate probabilities are pricing in between three and four 25 basis point rate cuts this year with the first cut penciled in at the June 12th FOMC meeting. US Dollar Index Daily Chart Chart via TradingView What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-dollar-remains-firm-after-mixed-s-p-pmis-fed-speak-later-in-the-session-20240222.html

2024-02-22 14:21

Nvidia Earnings, S&P 500 Analysis Nvidia earnings surpass estimates and issues positive outlook for Q1 2024 Nvidia set to open at new all-time high after earnings beat S&P 500 likely to ride the wave higher on Nvidia optimism potentially testing the all-time high Nvidia Earnings Surpass Estimates and Issues Positive Outlook for Q1 2024 Nvidia announced its earnings for the three month period ending 32 December 2023 after market close yesterday and surprised already lofty estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) – a common metric of growth and shareholder compensation – surprised the market by rising more than 10% above what was expected. In addition, the forward guidance communicated to the market for Q1 of 2024 put aside concerns around supply chain challenges and potentially waning demand due to the global growth slowdown we have witnessed. Nvidia Set to Open at a New All time High After Earnings Beat Nvidia is expected to open up more than 11% higher today after the impressive earnings beat after market close yesterday. The chip maker has enjoyed a phenomenal rise since the start of this year as the AI revolution advances and demand for their fine-tuned hardware expands. In the lead up to the announcement speculators foresaw a number of potential challenges to the Q1 outlook with some of those incorporating recent disappointing growth data witnessed throughout major economies, which may weigh on demand. However, the upbeat outlook for the first quarter of 2024 dismissed those concerns as the company now anticipates further revenue gains ($24 billion vs $22.17 billion) which has a positive effect on most major equity indices today as Nvidia appears to provide the rising tide that lifts all boats. The recent pullback appears to have found support add a prior swing low $663 and according to the premarket is likely to rise all the way to $748 to mark an impressive recovery. Should the stock open at those levels it would represent a new all-time high for the dominant the player in the semiconductor space. Nvidia Daily Chart – Set to Open at Record Highs According to the Pre-market Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Looking at the weekly chart since 2021 it is possible to put into perspective the recent sharp advances in the stock which can be attributed to the rise of AI applications. In 2021 the stock enjoyed the general rise as interest rates remained near record lows but then in 2022 came under pressure as the Federal Reserve began the rate hiking cycle. In 2023 it was thought that Nvidia may come under pressure as interest rates reached what we now believe is a peak but the stock advanced even further. Finally, since the beginning of this year Nvidia has accelerated notably to the upside as various AI applications gain traction, fueling demand for high-powered, fine-tuned semiconductors for use in data centers and graphics processing units (GPUs). Nvidia Weekly Chart Breaking Down Year by Year Performance Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow S&P 500 Likely to Ride the Wave Higher on Nvidia Optimism Potentially Testing the All-time High Ahead of the market open S&P 500 futures point to a higher start to the day, propelled forward by the positive sentiment around Nvidia earnings last night. U.S. stocks have advanced notably since November last year on the hopes of interest rate cuts which typically drive stock markets higher and boost valuations. A resilient U.S. economy has pulled back expectations of multiple interest rate cuts in 2024 which has seen the dollar recover some lost ground but has yet to effect the bullish trajectory of US stock markets. S&P 500 E-Mini Futures to Test High Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Learn how to adapt a typical stock trading strategy for the FX market: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/nvidia-poised-for-new-all-time-high-after-earnings-beat-s-p-500-buoyed-20240222.html

2024-02-22 12:17

Gold Price (XAU/USD) Analysis and Chart Gold looks set for a sixth straight session of gains Conflict in Ukraine and Gaza underpins the market The prospect of lower interest rates, albeit not imminently, is helping too Gold Prices continued their run higher on Thursday, buoyed up by a little slide in the United States Dollar and the usual range of broad geopolitical risks that have tended to support the market. With conflict ongoing in Ukraine and Gaza, the oldest haven asset looks underpinned, even as the investment world comes to terms with the likelihood that borrowing costs will remain high for longer than they had thought at the start of this year. Wednesday’s release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January rate-setting meeting showed a central bank more concerned about the inflation risks of cutting rates too soon than of leaving them at current levels for a while longer. While higher rates, and higher yields, will always be headwinds for non-yielding assets such as gold, the market remains pretty sure that US rates will fall this year and that other major economies will see similar action. For as long as that’s the case gold will find support even as assets perceived to be riskier, such as stocks, also enjoy robust gains. Goldman Sachs has reportedly this week predicted that gold will see price gains in response to Fed rate cuts, along with copper, oil, and other areas of the commodity complex. The week may be winding down but there are a few data points still to come which might move the dial on monetary policy expectations and, hence, on gold. US Purchasing Managers Index figures are coming up Thursday, with Germany’s final read on fourth-quarter economic growth due on Friday, along with consumer confidence. Gold Prices Technical Analysis Gold Prices Daily Chart Compiled Using TradingView A finish in the green today will mark a sixth straight session of gains for gold, which has on Thursday printed a new ten-day high just below $2035/ounce. Bulls will need to get back into the $2035-$2037 resistance area from February 5-9 if they’re going to build a base from which to push higher. Prices remain in a very broad range between $1982.34 and $2078.62 which has constrained the market since late November last year. Support below that range comes in at the third Fibonacci retracement of the climb to December 4’s highs from the lows of October 6. That comes in at $1976.84. Notably, prices remain above their 100-day moving average, as they have since the middle of October. That point now comes in at the $2000 mark, which could be tested quite soon if the current rally peters out anywhere near current levels. The broad range, however, seems very likely to hold given the sheer number of fundamental supports in play now. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-prices-rise-again-on-weaker-dollar-geopolitics-dominate-20240222.html