2024-02-21 00:40

Most Read: Gold Prices on the Rise, Confluence Resistance in Sight. What Now for XAU/USD? The U.S. dollar fell modestly on Tuesday on the back of subdued U.S. yields in a session lacking significant drivers. Volatility in the FX space, however, may accelerate later in the week, courtesy of a high-impact event on the U.S. calendar on Wednesday: the release of the FOMC minutes. The minutes will surely provide a greater degree of clarity regarding the central bank’s assessment of the inflation outlook and the possible timing of the first rate cut, so traders should parse and analyze the document closely. Based on recent comments from several Fed officials, the readout of the last meeting may signal limited interest for immediate rate cuts in response to stagnating progress on disinflation. This scenario should boost U.S. Treasury yields, bolstering the U.S. dollar in the process. In the unlikely event that the minutes demonstrate a greater inclination among policymakers to initiate the easing cycle sooner rather than later, the opposite response could materialize, i.e., a pullback in yields and the greenback. Regardless of the outcome, we could see larger FX market swings in the coming days. Fundamentals aside, the remainder of this article will center on the technical outlook for major U.S. dollar pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. Here we'll assess the crucial price thresholds that currency traders should be aware of in the upcoming sessions. EUR/USD FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD continued its recovery on Tuesday after rebounding from support near 1.0700 last week. If gains persist in the upcoming days, resistance is anticipated around the 200-day simple moving average at 1.0820. Beyond this threshold, all eyes will be on 1.0890, followed by 1.0950. In the event of a market reversal, initial support can be identified near 1.0725 and 1.0700 subsequently. Bulls will need to vigorously protect this technical floor; failure to do so could result in a pullback towards 1.0650. On further weakness, attention will be squarely on 1.0520. EUR/USD TECHNICAL CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Eager to discover what the future holds for the Japanese yen? Delve into our Q1 trading forecast for expert insights. Get your free copy now! USD/JPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY ticked down and fell below the 150.00 handle on Tuesday. Should weakness persist throughout the week, support emerges at 148.90, followed by 147.40. Further losses from this point onward may bring the 50-day simple moving average near 146.00 into focus. On the other hand, if bulls return and push prices back above the 150.00 handle, we could soon witness a retest of the 150.85 region. Although overcoming this ceiling might present a challenge for the bulls, a decisive breakout could usher in a rally toward last year’s high in the vicinity of 152.00. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView Delve into how crowd psychology may influence FX market dynamics. Request our sentiment analysis guide to grasp the role of retail positioning in predicting USD/CAD’s near-term direction. USD/CAD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD consolidated to the upside on Tuesday, further moving away from its 200-day simple moving average and trendline support near 1.3480. If gains gather momentum over the next few days, overhead resistance looms at 1.3545, followed by 1.3585. Above these levels, the spotlight will be on 1.3620. Conversely, if prices pivot to the downside and head lower, the first floor to monitor is located at 1.3480. This area might offer stability for the pair during a retracement, but in the event of a breakdown, a rapid decline towards the 50-day simple moving average at 1.3415 could be imminent. USD/CAD TECHNICAL CHART USD/CAD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-subdued-ahead-of-fed-minutes-setups-on-eur-usd-usd-jpy-usd-cad-20240221.html

2024-02-20 18:30

Most Read: US Dollar Forecast – Bullish Bias Remains in Place, Setups on EUR/USD, USD/JPY Gold (XAU/USD) rose for the fourth straight session on Tuesday (+0.50% to $2,027), firmly establishing itself above the $2,025 mark, supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields and a subdued U.S. dollar, with risk-averse sentiment on Wall Street likely reinforcing the metal’s advance. Factoring in recent gains, XAU/USD has risen more than 2% from last week’s lows near $1,985 set in the wake of hotter-than-anticipated U.S. inflation numbers. Despite this positive performance, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory could cap gold’s upside in the near term, so caution is warranted. Earlier in 2024, bullion's prospects looked brighter on the assumption that the Fed would deliver aggressive easing measures this year. However, overly dovish expectations have since moderated on account of strong U.S. labor market data and stagnating progress on disinflation. Traders may further unwind dovish wagers on the FOMC’s path if incoming information continues to reflect economic strength and sticky price pressures. This is because these two factors could push policymakers to delay the start of their easing cycle and diminish the scale of subsequent rate reductions. Wondering how retail positioning can shape gold prices? Our sentiment guide provides the answers you are looking for—don't miss out, get the guide now! GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices extended their recovery on Tuesday, pushing towards confluence resistance near $2,030, where the 50-day simple moving average converges with a descending trendline drawn from last year’s high. If bulls manage to trigger a breakout over the coming trading sessions, a rally toward $2,065 could be around the corner. On the flip side, if sellers return and spark a bearish reversal off current levels, technical support emerges at $2,005, followed by $1,990. From here onwards, additional losses could result in a pullback towards $1,975. On further weakness, all eyes will be on the 200-day simple moving average. GOLD PRICE CHART – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-prices-on-the-rise-confluence-resistance-in-sight-what-now-for-xau-usd-20240220.html

2024-02-20 16:45

Oil (Brent Crude, WTI) Analysis China adds further support to the ailing economy Brent crude oil drops at prior swing low, propped up by the 200 SMA WTI oil oscillates around key, long-term trend filter The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library China Adds Further Support to the Ailing Economy In the early hours of Tuesday morning it was confirmed that the 5-year loan prime rate dropped by more than expected, in yet another show of support for not only the Chinese economy but for the real estate sector in particular. Chinese economy is expected to grow by a meager 5% again this year with a number of concerns still lingering. The real estate sector appears void of confidence especially after a court order to liquidate the large developer Evergrande and while the rest of the world is battling inflation, China is dealing with the threat of deflation - lower prices year on year. Nevertheless, the added support did little for oil markets as prices head lower. Concerns around global economic growth persist and China is a major contributor to oil demand growth. If doubts around china’s economic recovery persist, this could be seen in a lower oil price. Brent crude oil drops at prior swing low, propped up by the 200 SMA Crude oil prices have put in a phenomenal recovery, rising over 9% from the early February swing low. Price action appears to have found resistance at the $83.50 mark where prices have since turned lower towards the $82 mark. Cross section may be supported here given that the $82 mark it's followed very closely by the 200 day simple moving average, meaning continued bearish momentum below the long term trend filter will be required to avoid a period of sideways trading. The zone highlighted in purple corresponds to the fortunes of the local Chinese stock market, which sold off aggressively but has since stabilized on the back of state linked investment institutions buying up shares and ETFs in large quantities to restore confidence in the market. $83.50 remains as immediate resistance with the RSI turning lower before reaching overbought levels. Immediate support is at $82.00 followed by the 200 SMA. Brent Crude Oil (UK Oil) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Oil is a market inextricably linked to market forces of demand and supply but also responds to geopolitical tensions and severe weather events. Discover the fundamentals in our dedicated guide below: WTI oil oscillates around key long-term trend filter WTI Crude oil it's lower on Tuesday and tests a very key level comprised of the 200 day simple moving average and the long-term level of significance at $77.40. Over the more medium term price action trades higher, within an ascending channel marking a series of higher highs and higher lows. Should we see further bearish momentum from here oil prices may look to test the 50 day simple moving average down at the $73.84 mark before potentially making another test of channel support. Oil prices continue to react to global growth prospects which appear to have worsened given that the UK and Japan have already confirmed recessions. In addition, Europe's largest economy, Germany, is said to already be in recession according to the Bundesbank. WTI Crude Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow IG Client Sentiment Reveals Narrowing of Shorts and Longs, Distorting Signals Oil- US Crude:Retail trader data shows 63.69% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.75 to 1. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggestsOil- US Crude prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Oil - US Crude trading bias. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/oil-price-outlook-brent-crude-wti-ease-after-decent-recovery-20240220.html

2024-02-20 14:30

USD/JPY Analysis and Charts USD/JPY trades cautiously above the 150.00 mark. Risk aversion has offered the Dollar some broad support. Expect more focus on the possibility of intervention in the market as the recent highs approach. The Japanese Yen is higher against the United States Dollar on Tuesday but only barely. The week got off to a thinly traded start thanks to the Presidents’ Day holiday in the US and isn’t replete with the sort of first-tier data likely to offer huge trading cues. The Dollar seems to have benefitted from a bit of risk aversion in a trading environment weighed down by gloomy geopolitical stories from Ukraine to Gaza. The minutes from the January 1 monetary policy meeting at the Federal Reserve will hog the limelight on Wednesday. However, they are likely to be a little historic for markets. Strong US inflation numbers released since have already seen bets as to when rates might fall pushed back, with the market now looking at June or July rather than May. For the ‘Yen side’ of USD/JPY, Japanese trade numbers are due for release early on Wednesday local time (very late Tuesday in London) and, with Japan having slipped surprisingly into technical recession at the end of last year, maybe more closely watched than usual by currency traders. With USD/JPY closing back in on November’s highs, it’s perhaps notable that Japanese Finance Ministry official Atsushi Mimura said on Tuesday that Tokyo is constantly communicating with international partners regarding intervention in the market. While Japanese officials have mulled the pros and cons of a weak Yen at various times, Tokyo has been one of the more active movers in the past if it thinks that the market is getting too far away from realistic valuations. Expect more focus on this issue if USD/JPY continues to rise. USD/JPY Technical Analysis USD/JPY Daily Chart Compiled Using TradingView USD/JPY is in the middle of a quite well-respected uptrend band which has been in place since January 3. That band now offers support at 148.564, ahead of an important retracement prop down at 146.118. That level looks pretty solid though, having most recently held firm when tested in late January. Resistance comes in at February 13’s high of 150.795, ahead of November 13’s multi-decade peak of 151.594. Above that the uptrend channel offers resistance at 153.75, but that’s a long way above the market and isn’t likely to come into play anytime soon. Traders seem understandably nervous about the Dollar’s ability to make substantial further gains from here. More than 70% of traders at IG are coming at USD/JPY from the short side now. This is usually the sort of level that might argue for a contrarian long position but, given the likely rising chance that the Japanese authorities are watching developments closely, that might not make much sense from a risk/reward perspective. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-yen-ticks-lower-fomc-minutes-japanese-trade-in-focus-20240220.html

2024-02-20 12:34

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Prices, Charts, and Analysis EUR/USD trading on either side of 1.0800, helped by US dollar weakness. EUR/GBP bounces off support and is looking to print a fresh multi-month high. Most Read Euro Weekly Forecast: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY – Analysis and Forecasts The Euro is moving marginally higher as we head into the US open, while the greenback is marginally lower. The US dollar index is currently trading around 104.20 after hitting a multi-week high of 105.02 last Wednesday. The reverse can be seen in EUR/USD which now changes hands around 1.0800 after touching 1.0700 last week. The pair have broken through a cluster of recent resistance on either side of 1.0787 and EUR/USD is now testing the 20-day simple moving average at 1.0795. The next target is seen at 1.0826, the 200-day sma, before the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0862. EUR/USD Daily Chart Charts Using TradingView EUR/GBP has made a solid rebound off a prior level of support around 0.8500 and broken through both the 20-day sma at 0.8538 and a prior level of support turned resistance at 0.8549. The next level of resistance comes off the 50-day sma at 0.8588. The pair are looking overbought with the CCI indicator at the highest level since late-October last year. EUR/GBP Daily Chart IG retail trader data show 67.52% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.08 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 0.81% higher than yesterday and 9.76% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 15.38% higher than yesterday and 42.86% higher than last week. What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/euro-eur-price-latest-eur-usd-testing-resistance-eur-gbp-eyes-multi-week-high-20240220.html

2024-02-20 09:09

Pound Sterling (GBP) Analysis Monetary policy committee set to testify in parliament Cable (GBP/USD) appears vulnerable to bearish threat Looking for actionable trading ideas? Download our top trading opportunities guide packed with insightful tips for the first quarter: Monetary Policy Committee Set to Testify in Parliament This morning members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) are set to provide testimony to parliament's treasury committee around their views of the economy and inflation that led to their decision to hold interest rates in January. There was certainly a diverse range of opinions upon the release of the votes, revealing a three-way vote split with two members opting to hike interest rates, six members opting to hold, and the dove within their ranks (Swati Dhingra) favouring a 25 basis point cut. As a result, the hearing today is likely to shed further insight into the thinking of those on the committee. The UK economy fell into recession in Q4 last year which will likely result in tough questions being asked of the committee as to why they persist with keeping interest rates at a level that constrains economic growth. In the January meeting, the Bank of England's forecasts suggested that inflation will drop drastically towards its 2% target by the middle of this year, accompanied by more modest declines in wage growth and inflation within the services sector. The tide is changing and major central banks are nearing the first rate cut of this cycle, however bankers continue to stress that a greater degree of conviction is required before making that huge step. Cable Appears Vulnerable to Bearish Threat Cable appears vulnerable to further downside momentum ever since attempting to break lower earlier this month. Continued resilience in the US labor market provided the initial catalyst for the downside move which ultimately failed to gain traction below the 200 SMA. Since then price action has oscillated around channel support and the key 200 day simple moving average. Bullish drivers for the pound are scarce, particularly at a time when they economy has finally faltered and markets have begun to price in the need for more support from the Bank of England which ultimately takes the form of rate cuts. GBP/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The weekly chart helps to get a feel for the waning bullish momentum and zone of resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the major 2021-2022 decline. A series of long upper wicks on the weekly candlesticks help to reveal bullish reluctance, suggesting the path of least resistance may appear to the downside. This week we see a number of FOMC members making appearances alongside the release of the FOMC minutes from the January meeting, which is likely to bring intra-day volatility to US-related pairs. Weekly GBP/USD Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/sterling-update-gbp-usd-hanging-on-but-breakdown-looms-20240220.html