2024-02-18 06:00

Most Read: USD/JPY Gains on Hot US PPI but FX Intervention Chatter May Cap Upside Earlier this year, the market consensus indicated the Federal Reserve would deliver about 160 basis points of easing in 2024. However, these dovish expectations have been dialed back this month following stronger-than-forecast U.S. jobs growth and sticky inflation data, with traders now anticipating only 80 basis points of rate cuts for the year. The recent repricing of the Fed’s policy outlook has boosted the U.S. dollar across the board, propelling the DXY index up by about 1.8% in the last three weeks. While gains may not unfold linearly going forward, there appears to be room for further upside, especially if incoming information confirms that progress on disinflation is faltering. Looking ahead to the coming week, the spotlight will be on two key events: the FOMC minutes and the release of the S&P Global PMIs for February. The former could provide illuminating details on discussions surrounding the start of the easing cycle, while the latter stands to offer valuable insights into the current state of the U.S. economy. Leaving fundamental analysis aside for now, in the next part of this article we’ll delve into the technical outlook for the three major U.S. dollar pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CAD. Here we will examine the significant price thresholds that every forex trader should have on their radar in the upcoming sessions. EUR/USD FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD edged up on Friday after bouncing off technical support near the 1.0700 handle earlier in the week. If gains accelerate in the coming days, confluence resistance around 1.0800 will act as the first line of defense against further advances. Beyond this point, attention will be on the 200-day simple moving average at 1.0825, followed by the 50-day simple moving average at 1.0890. Conversely, if sellers stage a comeback and trigger a bearish reversal, support emerges at 1.0700, as previously indicated. Bulls will need to vigorously defend this region; failure to do so could lead to a downward move towards 1.0650. Prices are likely to stabilize in this area during a pullback, but a decisive breakdown could prompt a drop towards 1.0520. EUR/USD CHART – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Eager to discover what the future holds for the Japanese yen? Delve into our Q1 trading forecast for expert insights. Get your free copy now! USD/JPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY gained ground on Friday, consolidating its position above the 150.00 handle, yet unable to surpass the high achieved earlier in the week. Despite the pair’s upward trend, the exchange rate is nearing levels that could prompt Tokyo to increase verbal intervention or contemplate actions to bolster the yen. This may cap the U.S. dollar’s upside or trigger a reversal in the near term. Discussing potential outcomes, if USD/JPY loses upward momentum and shifts downward, support is seen at 150.00, followed by 148.90. On further weakness, all eyes will be on 147.40. On the other hand, if USD/JPY defies expectations and continues its climb, resistance looms at 150.85. Further progression to the upside might bring last year’s peak near 152.00 into view. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView Delve into how crowd psychology may influence FX market dynamics. Request our sentiment analysis guide to grasp the role of retail positioning in predicting USD/CAD’s near-term direction. USD/CAD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Following a rebound from trendline support, USD/CAD pushed higher on Friday, closing above its 200-day simple moving average – a positive signal for price action. Should the pair build upon its recent gains over the coming days, resistance can be spotted at 1.3545, followed by 1.3585. Beyond this ceiling, bulls will have their sights on 1.3620 – the 61.8% Fib retracement of the November/December slump. On the flip side, if sellers return and spark a move lower, technical support stretches from 1.3480 to 1.3460. Breaching this technical floor will be a tough task for the bears, but in the event of a breakdown, a rapid descent towards 1.3415 could be around the corner. From here onwards, additional losses could bring 1.3380 into sharper focus. USD/CAD TECHNICAL CHART USD/CAD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-forecast-bullish-bias-prevails-setups-on-eur-usd-usd-jpy-usd-cad-20240218.html

2024-02-16 16:20

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Picking Up a Small Bid as Oversold Conditions Begin to Clear USD/JPY rallied and consolidated above the 150.00 threshold on Friday, rebounding from the slight dip in the previous trading session. This uptick was fueled by rising U.S. Treasury yields following higher-than-expected U.S. producer price index figures, which echoed the hot CPI report from earlier in the week. By way of context, headline PPI clocked in at 0.9% y-o-y, one-tenth of a percentage point above estimates. Similarly, the core gauge surprised on the upside, reaching 2.0% y-o-y compared to the anticipated 1.6%, indicating a potential reacceleration in wholesale inflation's underlying trend. US PPI DATA Interested in understanding where USD/JPY is headed over the coming months? Uncover the insights in our quarterly trading guide. Don't wait, request your free copy now! Limited progress on disinflation has led traders to temper their expectations for easing measures for the year, decreasing the likelihood of the Fed commencing its rate-cutting cycle at its May or June meeting. The hawkish reassessment of the central bank's policy outlook has bolstered the greenback in recent weeks, as illustrated in the accompanying chart. 2024 FED FUNDS FUTURES – IMPLIED RATES BY MONTH Source: TradingView Source: CME Group With price pressure persistently elevated throughout the economy, the Fed will be reluctant to start lowering borrowing costs anytime soon. In fact, policymakers might choose to postpone their first move until the latter half of 2024 to exercise caution. This scenario could result in higher U.S. yields in the short term, a favorable outcome for USD/JPY. USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY climbed on Friday, consolidating above the 150.00 handle, but failing to regain its week's high reached on Tuesday. Though the pair remains firmly entrenched in a solid uptrend, the exchange rate is approaching levels that could trigger FX intervention by the Japanese authorities to support the yen. For this reason, USD/JPY may struggle to maintain its bullish momentum for an extended period. Focusing on possible scenarios, if USD/JPY deviates from its upward trajectory and turns lower, initial support appears around 150.00, followed by 148.90. From here onwards, additional losses could usher in a move towards 147.40. On the flip side, if the bulls test the limits in defiance of possible currency intervention and propel USD/JPY higher, resistance emerges at 150.85. Further gains beyond this point might shift attention toward last year's high located around the psychological 152.00 mark. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-jpy-gains-on-hot-us-ppi-but-fx-intervention-chatter-may-cap-upside-20240216.html

2024-02-16 14:07

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis and Chart US PPI comes in hotter-than-expected Retail sales missed market expectations and turned negative in January. Gold is correcting higher after being technically oversold. Recently released US producer price inflation data has pushed the price of gold back below $2,000/oz. and raised expectations that next month’s US consumer price inflation may also move higher. Month-on-month PPI in January rose by 0.3%, compared to forecasts of 0.1% and December’s reading of -0.1%. US retail sales data disappointed the market yesterday, turning negative and missing market forecasts by a margin. The January number 0f -0.8% was the lowest reading in nearly a year, while the previous two months' data was also revised lower. Retail sales fell by 0.8% in January, while December’s data was revised to 0.4% from 0.6% and November sales were revised to 0% from an initial reading of 0.3%. The drop off in consumer spending over the last three months sent US Treasury yields, and the greenback, lower on Thursday but did little to change market expectations that the Federal Reserve would not start cutting interest rates until the end of the first half of the year. The chances of an earlier rate cut fell on Tuesday this week after data showed that US inflation remained stickier than expected in January. Current market pricing suggests the first 25 basis point cut will take place at the June 12th FOMC meeting. The recent pairing back of US rate cut expectations has weighed on gold and sent the price tumbling lower over the past two weeks. The precious metal turned higher yesterday, in part due to a technically oversold Commodity Channel Index (CCI) reading. The CCI indicator, comparable to RSI, compares the difference between the current and the historical price over a set time frame and shows if a market is overbought, neutral, or oversold. On Wednesday the CCI indicator showed gold deep in oversold territory and back at levels last seen in late September, just before the market rallied sharply. If the market continues to wash out this oversold reading, gold could retest $2,009/oz. ahead of the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages currently sitting at $2,023/oz. and $2,031/oz. respectively. Gold Daily Price Chart Retail trader data shows 68.74% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.20 to 1.The number of traders net long is 8.85% lower than yesterday and 21.69% higher than last week, while the number of traders net short is 6.65% higher than yesterday and 15.93% lower than last week. What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-xau-usd-picking-up-a-small-bid-as-oversold-conditions-begin-to-clear-20240216.html

2024-02-16 12:00

FTSE 100, Dow Jones, Dax 40 Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 rebounds The index has enjoyed two days of gains, recouping the losses suffered on Tuesday.Further gains target the 7700 high from early January, before moving on to the late December high at 7750. Having established a higher low this week, the bullish view begins to regain some strength, after a mixed performance in January and February. A close back below 7540 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) would mark a more bearish development. FTSE 100 Daily Chart See the latest daily and weekly changes in FTSE 100 client sentiment Dax at new highs The consolidation of late January and early February has resolved into a move higher, with the index back above 17,000 and back at a new record high.The price has once again found support at the 50-day SMA, and looks poised for more upside. A more bearish view would need a move back below the 50-day SMA to suggest another push towards the 16,532 and 16,346 areas of possible support. DAX Daily Chart Dow back on course for 39,000 The index is heading higher again after a brief shakeout on Tuesday following US inflation data.Further gains will carry it back to new record highs, with 39,000 only a short distance away. Sellers will need a reversal back below 38,000 to suggest a deeper pullback is at hand. Dow Jones Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-recovers-while-dax-and-dow-make-further-gains-20240216.html

2024-02-16 10:30

Nvidia Earnings Analysis Key takeaways 1. NVIDIA's fourth-quarter results for fiscal year 2024 will be reported on February 21, 2024. 2. NVIDIA's stock has been performing well, with a significant increase of nearly 50% year to date. This growth is driven by the increasing demand for AI technology, and the company has received optimistic price target upgrades from institutions like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. 3. Analyst estimates for NVIDIA's Q4 2024 results suggest a total revenue of $20.322 billion, and earnings per share of $4.55. 4. NVIDIA's shares are currently trading at a premium compared to the average price targets set by analysts. This implies that there is a risk of the stock price not meeting the high expectations set by the market. 5. The average price target for NVIDIA, based on 38 Wall Street analysts, is $689.87. When are the NVIDIA results expected? NVIDIA, the Nasdaq-listed technology giant will report results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 (Q4 2024) on Wednesday the 21st of February 2024. NVIDIA earnings preview, what does ‘The Street’ expect? NVIDIA's stock has been on a meteoric rise, soaring nearly 50% year to date, as the company capitalizes on the burgeoning demand for AI technology. Fueling this ascent, esteemed financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have issued bullish price target upgrades, injecting a fresh wave of optimism among investors. This vote of confidence has been instrumental in driving the aggressive capital gains NVIDIA has enjoyed recently. However, it's crucial to note that NVIDIA's shares (NVDA) are currently trading at a premium compared to the average of analysts' price targets. This sets the stage for a pivotal moment: the upcoming earnings results. For NVIDIA to sustain its lofty share price, it's imperative that the company's performance aligns with, or surpasses, Wall Street's high expectations. A mean of analyst estimates from Refinitiv data arrives at the following expectations for the Q4 2024 results: - Total revenue $20.322 billion - Earnings per share $4.55 NVIDIA’s guidance for Q4 2024 (as per Q3 2024 results) is as follows: Revenue is expected to be $20.00 billion, plus or minus 2%. GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.5% and 75.5%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points. GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately $3.17 billion and $2.20 billion, respectively. GAAP and non-GAAP other income and expenses are expected to be an income of approximately $200 million, excluding gains and losses from non-affiliated investments. GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates are expected to be 15.0%, plus or minus 1%, excluding any discrete items. How to trade the NVIDIA results Source: IG TipRanks Based on 38 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for Nvidia in the last 3 months. The average price target is US$689.87 with a high forecast of US$1,100.00 and a low forecast of US$560.00. The average price target represents a -4.51% change from the last price of US$722.45. Image source: IG Fifty nine percent of IG clients with open positions on NVIDIA (as of the 14th of February 2024) expect the share price to rise in the near term, while forty-one percent of IG clients with open positions on the company expect the price to fall. NVIDIA: Technical view The share price of NVIDIA has been rising exponentially in 2024. The three steepening trend lines highlight what may be a price blowoff in technical analysis terms. A price blowoff suggests an uptrend that has perhaps become overheated in the near term. The black arrow marks a shooting star candle pattern which is considered a bearish intraday price reversal. The stock price also trades within overbought territory. These indications suggest that the price could be setting up to either correct or consolidate. However, the long-term trend remains up, and in lieu traders might prefer to use any short-term weakness (should it occur) as an opportunity to accumulate stock. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-earnings-preview-what-to-expect-from-nvidia-results-20240216.html

2024-02-16 09:11

Pound Sterling (GBP/USD) Analysis UK retail sales rose an impressive 3.4% to overcome December’s 3.3% decline GBP/USD unphased by the report after a busy week, filled with data Fed speakers, US PPI and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report up next The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library UK retail sales rose an impressive 3.4% in January, recovering December’s surprising drop of 3.3%. The dismal December print was chalked up to Christmas gifts being bought during the Black Friday discounts in November and partially due to plans to spend less in light of the cost of living, according to nearly half of surveyed respondents. The positive news comes just one day after the UK confirmed its economy had dipped into recession in the final quarter of 2023. Also this week, inflation was unchanged and the labour market proved resilient, just a few stats that will likely see Bank of England officials towing the line when it comes to rate cut expectations. Consumers landed up paying more for less as the ‘value’ statistic, which captures the price aspect of sold items, rose faster (3.9%) than the volume component (3.4%). Source: ONS, prepared by Richard Snow GBP/USD Immediate Reaction The pound reacted favourably to the data but ultimately declined back towards levels witnessed ahead of the release. The pound is on track for a softer week against the dollar as the pair attempts to break below the broad trading range. GBP/USD 5-Minute Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The daily chart reveals the two recent attempts to break out of the trading range with the first attempt falling short due to a lack of momentum and sufficient support around the 200-day simple moving average. The underside of the horizontal trading range has also been effective in previously containing bears but may now provide resistance as prices reveal a tendency towards the downside – evidenced by increasing downward momentum showed by the MACD indicator. Later today US PPI data is due alongside comments from prominent Fed members, Michael Barr and Mary Daly, finished off with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary report for February. Keep an eye on inflation expectations in the report as broader sentiment continues to improve at a decent pace. GBP/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/uk-retail-sales-soar-in-january-to-erase-december-slump-gbp-unfazed-20240216.html