2024-02-15 23:30

GOLD PRICE FORECAST Gold prices advance following disappointing U.S. economic data All eyes will be on the U.S. PPI report on Friday This article explores key tech levels to keep an eye on in XAU/USD Most Read: EUR/USD Gains After Weak US Retail Sales but US PPI Poses Threat to Recovery Gold prices (XAU/USD) rose and reclaimed the psychological $2,000 level on Thursday, propelled upward by a weaker U.S. dollar and depressed U.S. Treasury yields in the aftermath of lackluster U.S. macro data. By way of context, January U.S. retail sales disappointed estimates, contracting 0.8% instead of the expected 0.1% decline, a sign that household consumption is starting to soften. Under normal circumstances, weaker consumer spending might prompt the Fed to expedite policy easing; however, the current landscape is far from ordinary, with inflation running well ahead of the 2.0% target and displaying extreme stickiness. For this reason, policymakers might refrain from taking preemptive action in response to indications of economic fragility. With the U.S. central bank singularly focused on restoring price stability and prioritizing this part of its mandate for now, traders should closely monitor the upcoming release of the producer price index survey on Friday. Forecasts suggest that January's headline PPI eased to 0.6% year-on-year from 1.0% previously, and that the core gauge moderated to 1.6% from 1.8% in December. While subdued PPI figures are likely to be bullish for gold prices, an upside surprise mirroring the results of the CPI report unveiled earlier in the week, which depicted stalling progress on disinflation, should have the opposite effect. In the latter scenario, we could see yields and the U.S. dollar rise in tandem, as markets unwind dovish interest rate bets. This should be bearish for precious metals. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold advanced on Thursday after bouncing off confluence support at $1,990, with prices pushing towards technical resistance at $2,005. If the bulls manage to clear this barrier in the coming days, we could see a rally towards the 50-day simple moving average at $2,030. On further strength, all eyes will be on $2,065. On the other hand, if sellers regain the upper hand and trigger a bearish reversal off current levels, the first floor to watch looms at $1,990, followed by $1,975. From here onwards, additional losses could shine a spotlight on the 200-day simple moving average near $1,965. Feeling discouraged by trading losses? Take control and improve your strategy with our guide, "Traits of Successful Traders." Access invaluable insights to help you avoid common trading pitfalls and costly errors. GOLD PRICE CHART – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/xau-usd-gold-prices-bounce-off-confluence-support-markets-eye-us-ppi-for-fed-cues-20240215.html

2024-02-15 19:30

Oil (Brent, WTI Crude) Analysis Marginal Cushing stock build could limit oil upside, IEA revises oil demand growth lower Brent crude oil flirts with the 200-day SMA WTI testing major zone of resistance into the end of the week The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Marginal Cushing Stock Build Could Limit Oil Upside US oil stocks in Cushing Oklahoma rose slightly at the end of last week, which may cap oil upside towards the end of this week. Oil storage figures have recovered in February after January witnessed multiple drawdowns. Storage figures are just one part of a multi-factor fundamental mix that is in play at the moment. One of the major determinants of the oil price is the concern around the global economic outlook, particularly as the UK and Japan confirmed their respective economies entered into a recession at in the final quarter of 2023. Europe’s economy has narrowly avoided a technical recession while Chinese authorities are desperate to reverse the deteriorating investor sentiment and stock market malaise. A significant proportion of oil demand growth comes from China each year but with another year of sub-par economic growth forecast for the world’s second largest economy, the potential for oversupply plagues the oil market. EIA and OPEC forecasts for oil demand growth are diverging after the International Energy Association (IEA) revised its estimate lower, from 1.24 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.22 million bpd. OPEC on Tuesday maintained its loftier 2.25 million bpd estimate, highlighting the increasing uncertainty around global supply and demand dynamics. Brent Crude Oil Flirts with the 200-Day SMA The Brent crude chart below shows the oil market’s V-shaped recovery (highlighted in purple) as the commodity’s price tracked the Chinese stock market before the week-long Lunar New Year Holiday. Oil prices appear to have found resistance around $83.50 but are yet to close above the recent swing high of $84. In recent trading sessions oil has recovered from a sharp decline which occurred around the same time the Chinese stock sold off rapidly. In the absence of a further bullish catalyst from here, prices may consolidate or head lower. $83.50 has proven difficult to overcome since the end of last year, suggesting a return towards $77 is not out of the question. Brent Crude Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow WTI Testing Major Zone of Resistance into the end of the Week US crude, like Brent, also finds itself surrounded by resistance. In this case, it is the intersection of the major long-term level of $77.40 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). A daily close above this marker highlights channel resistance. If resistance proves too tough to conquer, prices may continue to oscillate within the range by heading towards channel support and $72.50. WTI Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/oil-price-update-iea-lowers-demand-growth-estimate-oil-recovery-slows-20240215.html

2024-02-15 17:00

Most Read: British Pound Outlook – Analysis & Setups on GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY EUR/USD advanced on Thursday, climbing for the second straight day after bouncing off the psychological 1.0700 level earlier in the week, supported in part by disappointing U.S. economic data. For context, U.S. retail trade figures showed that sales contracted 0.8% in January, well below expectations calling for a more modest decline of 0.1%. Weaker consumer spending in isolation could provide justification for the Federal Reserve to expedite interest rate cuts as a preemptive strategy to prevent a possible downturn in gestation. However, in the current context of persistently high and sticky consumer prices, policymakers are unlikely to overreact to a single report. With the Fed laser-focused on restoring price stability and giving more weight to this part of its mandate for now, traders should pay close attention to the producer price index figures to be released on Friday. According to estimates, January's headline PPI cooled to 0.6% y/y from 1.0% previously, while the core gauge moderated to 1.6% from 1.8% in December. Should PPI data echo the CPI report published earlier in the week, which revealed a stall in disinflationary progress, we could see the U.S. dollar pivot to the upside as markets shift the timing of the first FOMC rate cut further away and reduce easing expectations for the year. In this scenario, EUR/USD could quickly resume its retreat. UPCOMING US ECONOMIC DATA EUR/USD FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD extended its recovery on Thursday after bouncing off support around the 1.0700 mark earlier in the week. If gains accelerate in the coming days, confluence resistance near 1.0800 will be the first barrier against further advances. Above this area, the focus will be on the 200-day simple moving average at 1.0825, followed by 1.0890, the 50-day simple moving average. On the flip side, if sellers return and trigger a bearish reversal, initial support looms at 1.0700, as noted above. Bulls will need to vigorously defend this floor; failure to do so could usher in a pullback towards 1.0650. Additional losses beyond this threshold could reinforce downward momentum, setting the stage for a drop toward 1.0520. EUR/USD CHART – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-eur-usd-gains-after-weak-us-retail-sales-but-us-ppi-poses-threat-to-recovery-20240215.html

2024-02-15 15:30

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH/USD) Prices, Charts, and Analysis: Nine green candles in the last ten days. Bitcoin halving event the next driver of price action. The post-ETF approval/pre-halving Bitcoin rally is in full flow with the largest cryptocurrency by market cap up by over 20% in the first half of February. Heavy demand for the 11 new spot Bitcoin ETFs is pushing the price ever higher with BTC/USD now back at levels last seen at the end of November 2021. Bitcoin futures open interest is also through the roof and currently stands over $23 billion, according to Coinglass data With demand from the post-ETF approval now in full flow, the next major event facing Bitcoin traders is the latest ‘halving’ event due in mid-April. The past three halvings have seen Bitcoin move sharply higher in the months after the event, and if history repeats itself then the November 8th 2021 ATH at a fraction under $69k will come under heavy pressure. The Next Bitcoin Halving Event – What Does it Mean? The daily chart shows the spot Bitcoin price trading on either side of $52k. A confirmed break above this level will allow BTC/USD to press higher with little in the way of technical resistance until $59k-$60k comes into view. A short period of consolidation may be needed but unless there is a fundamental change in market sentiment, the path of least resistance over the coming weeks remains higher. Bitcoin Daily Price Chart Chart via Trading View Ethereum is also rallying hard as traders and investors look to potential spot Ethereum ETFs in the coming months. A handful of Ethereum ETF applications are already in the SEC’s in-tray and talk is growing that a decision, one way or another, may be made towards the end of H1. As always, care should be taken until a definitive decision is made. On its current trajectory, $3k is within reach with a couple of levels of resistance off weekly highs before $3,582 comes into view. Ethereum Weekly Price Chart Chart via Trading View What is your view on Bitcoin and Ethereum – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-btc-usd-continues-to-post-fresh-multi-month-highs-ethereum-eth-usd-eyes-3k-20240215.html

2024-02-15 13:00

Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Analysis and Chart USD/JPY creeps lower again Surprise news of recession in Japan has boosted the Yen Economic weakness makes the BoJ/s stated aims much harder The Japanese Yen was stronger against the United States dollar on Thursday despite some dismal economic news out of Japan. Not only did that country unexpectedly slip into recession according to official data released earlier, it lost its long-held crown as the world’s third-largest national economy in the process. That title now goes to Germany. Annualized Japanese Gross Domestic Product fell by 0.4% in the old year’s final three months. That was another contraction, joining the 3.3% slide seen in the quarter before. It was also well below the 1.4% increase economists had been looking for. Action in the currency markets was perhaps a little counterintuitive with the Yen merely adding to gains seen in the previous session. Of course, one never has to look too far for a monetary explanation these days and the Yen’s pep is likely explained by the fact that those horrible numbers will make it more difficult for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to walk back decades of ultra-loose monetary policy. The BoJ has been making noises about doing so for some months, but the realistic chances of any such move in a recession must lower, as the market seems to be taking on board. USD/JPY had been drifting lower in any case from the sharp spike higher which followed stronger-than-expected US inflation figures earlier in the week. The markets still think lower rates are coming from the Federal Reserve, but not before its May meeting at the earliest. Focus will now be on what either central bank has to say about the most recent developments. Learn how to trade USD/JY with our free trading guide: USD/JPY Technical Analysis USD/JPY Daily Chart Compiled Using TradingView USD/JPY has risen far above its old trading range and, although the prevailing uptrend channel looks secure, there must be at least some suspicion that this rally will need some consolidation if it is to challenge the next significant highs. Those come in at 151.924 and were made back in November, the peak, so far of the climb back from the lows of April. The ability of dollar bulls to hold the line above 150 into this week’s end is likely to be instructive as the pair currently oscillates around that psychologically important point. USD/JPY is now some way above its 200-day moving average, which comes in well below current levels at 145.178. While there would seem very little chance of a return to those levels anytime soon, a return to the previous range top at 148.749 might be a lot more likely if a consolidation phase sets in. That would not invalidate the current broad uptrend channel which would only be negated by a fall below 148.00. For now keep an eye on the 150 level. IG’s sentiment data finds traders skeptical of recent gains and happy to be short at current levels. This likely supports the idea that the current rally will struggle in the near term. Retail trader data shows 23.10% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 3.33 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.29% higher than yesterday and 9.29% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.47% lower than yesterday and 17.31% higher than last week. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-yen-gains-as-growth-data-put-spotlight-on-boj-policy-shift-20240215.html

2024-02-15 09:11

UK GDP, Pound Sterling, FTSE 100 Analysis Economic deterioration confirmed in Q4 Much anticipated tax cuts could be announced next month while the BoE is still concerned over wage growth and services inflation Sterling eases further while FTSE 100 opens higher The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Economic Deterioration Confirmed in Q4 The UK economy has experienced a notable downshift since the start of 2023 which culminated in a technical recession for the second half of the year. Worse-than-expected GDP data for the fourth quarter revealed a 0.3% contraction (QoQ) to mark two successive quarters of negative GDP – the definition of a technical recession. With the minor Q3 contraction of 0.1% remaining unchanged, hopes of avoiding a recession all but evaporated. GDP data is subject to change ahead of the next quarter’s results as more data for Q4 trickles in, however, the sharper contraction in final quarter means it is highly unlikely that the recession call will be invalidated. Despite the gloomy news, early estimates of 2023 GDP as a while point to a 0.1% rise compared to 2022. This seemingly positive news is put into perspective when you consider the yearly growth represents the weakest annual change in UK GDP since the financial crisis in 2009. The histogram below reveals the growth struggles in the UK despite budgetary measures put in place by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in the Autumn statement. Attention now shifts to the pre-election Spring Statement which is due to be held on the 6th of March where there is much anticipation around potential tax cuts to help soften the blow. At 13:00 GMT markets will get insight into how January GDP is tracking when the National Institute for Economic and Social Development releases its monthly tracker. UK GDP Growth (QoQ) Source: Tradingeconomics, prepared by Richard Snow Sterling Eases Further While the FTSE 100 Opens Higher The immediate market reaction saw the pound moving marginally lower against the dollar and the yen. Japan also confirmed a recession as Q4 GDP missed estimates, taking the market by surprise. It has been a week full of UK data but ultimately the pound appears to be worse off because if it. A robust labour market and stubborn inflation have tempered rate cut expectations for the Bank of England this year but that has failed to provide support for sterling. GBP/USD and GBP/JPY both appear to be heading lower. The Bank is unlikely to cut interest rates in a hurry while it maintains concerns over services inflation and wage growth. The FTSE opened strongly this morning, buoyed by the weaker pound. The local index has not enjoyed the same good fortune as US indices but looks to achieve a two-day advance ahead of the weekend. Multi-Asset Performance after the GDP Data (GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, FTSE 100) Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/uk-recession-confirmed-by-dismal-q4-gdp-data-gbp-ftse-reaction-20240215.html