2024-02-14 00:20

Most Read: USD/JPY Forecast - Hot US Inflation Sparks Bullish Breakout, Key Levels Ahead GOLD PRICE FORECAST - ANALYSIS Gold prices (XAU/USD) plunged and reached their weakest point in two months on Tuesday after higher-than-anticipated U.S. CPI data sparked a hawkish repricing of Fed interest rate expectations, boosting U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar across the board. With progress on disinflation stalling, the U.S. central bank may delay the start of its easing cycle and opt for only modest rate cuts when the process gets underway. This could mean higher bond yields and a stronger U.S. currency for longer, a situation that could exert downward pressure on precious metals. From a technical point of view, gold sank below $2,005 and quickly descended towards its 50-day simple moving average at $1,990. If prices fail to stabilize around these levels and extend to the downside, we could soon see a move towards $1,975. On further weakness, all eyes will be on $1,965. In the event of a bullish reversal, which seems improbable at the moment given the lack of positive catalysts, resistance looms around $2,005. Beyond this technical ceiling, the focus will shift to the 50-day simple moving average hovering near $2,030. Wondering how retail positioning can shape gold’s trajectory in the near term? Our sentiment guide provides the answers you are looking for and outlines key strategies—don't miss out, get the guide now! GOLD PRICE CHART – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView If you're looking for an in-depth analysis of U.S. equity indices, our first-quarter stock market trading forecast is packed with great fundamental and technical insights. Get it now! NASDAQ 100 FORECAST - ANALYSIS The Nasdaq 100 suffered a severe setback on Tuesday, falling more than 1.5%, on the back of rising U.S. rates following higher-than-expected CPI numbers. With yields pushing towards fresh highs for the year, stocks will have a hard time staying afloat, meaning a large correction could be around the corner. In terms of relevant technical thresholds, the first key support to watch appears at 17,555, which corresponds to a short-term uptrend line extended from the October lows. Should prices fall below this area, the crosshairs will fall squarely on 17,150, slightly above the 50-day simple moving average. On the other hand, if bulls manage to mount a comeback and trigger a meaningful rebound, resistance emerges at the all-time high around 18,125. Sellers are expected to vigorously guard this ceiling, but in case of a breakout, the tech index may find itself gravitating towards 18,300. NASDAQ 100 CHART – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Nasdaq 100 Chart Created Using TradingView EUR/USD FORECAST - ANALYSIS EUR/USD dropped sharply on Tuesday, hitting its lowest level in three months and closing below support at 1.0720. If this breakdown is sustained in the coming days, sellers may be emboldened to initiate an assault on 1.0650. Continued losses from this point onward could turn the spotlight to 1.0520. Conversely, if buyers regain the upper hand and spark a turnaround, the first technical hurdle to monitor can be spotted in the vicinity of 1.0720. Above this area, the next resistance zone of interest lies near 1.0800, where the 100-day simple moving average aligns with a short-term descending trendline. EUR/USD CHART – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/xau-usd-gold-price-nasdaq-100-eur-usd-what-comes-next-after-us-cpi-data-20240214.html

2024-02-13 18:10

USD/JPY OUTLOOK Higher-than-expected U.S. inflation numbers propel U.S. Treasury yields higher, boosting the U.S. dollar across the board USD/JPY soars past the 150.00 mark, hitting its highest level in nearly three months This article examines key technical thresholds to watch in the coming trading sessions Most Read: US Dollar Jumps on Stronger-Than-Expected Inflation Data, Gold Crumbles into Support After a subdued start to the week, USD/JPY rocketed higher on Tuesday, rallying more than 0.9% and breaking above the psychological 150.00 mark – an explosive move that saw the pair reach its highest level in nearly three months. USD/JPY & TREASURY YIELDS PERFORMANCE Source: TradingView The U.S. dollar’s strong performance was driven by soaring U.S. Treasury yields following hotter-than-anticipated U.S. inflation data. For context, both headline and core CPI for January surprised on the upside, at 3.9% y-o-y and 3.1% y-o-y, respectively, two-tenths of a percentage point above expectations. Interested in understanding where the U.S. dollar is headed in the short term? Uncover the insights in our quarterly trading guide. Don't wait; request your free copy now! US INFLATION TREND Source: BLS Limited progress on disinflation has prompted traders to scale back easing expectations for the year, as seen in the chart below. The possible start date of the FOMC rate-reduction cycle has also been pushed out, with market pricing now pointing to the first cut occurring at the June meeting. 2024 FED FUNDS FUTURES – IMPLIED RATES BY MONTH Source: TradingView With price pressures showing extreme stickiness, the Fed will be reluctant to start lowering borrowing costs any time soon; in fact, it may even delay its first move until the second half of 2024 to play it safe. This could translate into higher U.S. yields in the near term, a bullish outcome for the U.S. dollar. USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY soared on Tuesday, clearing resistance at 150.00 and hitting its highest mark since mid-November. Although the pair remains entrenched in a solid uptrend, the exchange rate is approaching levels that could make the Japanese government uncomfortable and inclined to step in to support the yen. In the event of FX intervention, USD/JPY could take a sharp turn to the downside, reversing part of its recent advance. In this scenario, possible support zones can be identified first at 150.00, followed by 148.90. On further weakness, all eyes will be on 147.40 and 146.00 thereafter. In the absence of currency intervention or talk of it by Japanese authorities, the bulls are likely to press on before launching an all-out assault on last year’s high around the 152.00 handle. Additional gains from this point onward could draw attention to 152.70. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-jpy-forecast-hot-us-inflation-sparks-bullish-breakout-key-levels-ahead-20240213.html

2024-02-13 15:44

Euro (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP) Analysis ZEW economic sentiment inches higher but confidence remains low EUR/USD descending channel heads lower after testing resistance EUR/GBP testing crucial support zone – follow through needed The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library ZEW Economic Sentiment Inches Higher but Confidence Remains Low Sentiment in the EU and in Germany continue to climb higher but still has a long way to go. Analysts are continuing to gain more confidence in the economic outlook in 6 months’ time, but more worrying is the perception of current conditions which continue to deteriorate. The economic outlook for Europe remains pessimistic as the stagnant economy has barely dodged a technical recession throughout 2023 with little to no reprieve on the horizon in 2024. As such, markets still anticipate over 100 basis points (bpd) of cuts this year while the hot US CPI print for January reeled in Fed rate cut bets which now see a greater likelihood of the first rate cut in June or July – previously March. Therefore, form a fundamental angle, the euro could suffer further setbacks against the dollar. EUR/USD Descending Channel Heads Lower After Testing Resistance On the weekly EUR/USD chart a double bottom appeared around the December and February lows (1.0724), which suggested a bearish continuation may struggle, requiring a catalyst to push further. US CPI appears to have provided that catalyst seeing the pair head lower, towards support at 1.0700 flat. The next level of support appears in the form of channel support, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 major decline. Resistance is back at channel resistance and the 38.2% Fib level. EUR/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow EUR/GBP Testing Crucial Support Zone – Follow Through Needed EUR/GBP has moved lower on the back of positive surprises in both UK employment data and average earnings. Markets now price in less than 65 basis points worth of cuts from the Bank of England, a notable decline after printing above 100 bps not too long ago. EUR/GBP needs to be monitored for a potential close below the crucial zone of support at 0.8515. Momentum points to the downside with the RSI still a fair distance away from oversold territory and with more high importance UK data still to come, bears will have more data on hand. UK CPI is expected to print higher than the December print, potentially strengthening the pound and sending EUR/GBP even lower. However, the pound may be brought back in line of quarter-on-quarter GDP reveals a technical recession for the UK. EUR/GBP Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/euro-price-outlook-hot-us-cpi-weighs-on-the-euro-20240213.html

2024-02-13 14:01

US Dollar Index, US Treasuries, Gold Analysis and Charts US shelter and food costs continue to rise, energy costs fall. US dollar index jumps over half a point, and gold turns lower. US inflation came in above market expectations earlier today, sending the US dollar to a fresh three-month high. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, ‘The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased by 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter continued to rise in January, increasing 0.6 percent and contributing over two-thirds of the monthly all items increase. The food index increased 0.4 percent in January, as the food at home index increased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.5 percent over the month. In contrast, the energy index fell 0.9 percent over the month due in large part to the decline in the gasoline index.’ US Treasury yields rose after the release with the rate-sensitive US 2-year rallying by 12 basis points to 4.60%, as traders begin to push back expectations of an early US rate cut. The May meeting is now being priced out, while 100 basis points of cuts are now seen this year, down from 150 basis points at the start of 2024. US 2-Year UST Yield The US dollar index posted a fresh three-month high after the release and broke above a prior level of resistance at 104.66. US Dollar Index Daily Chart Gold is back under pressure and is testing support around the $2,009/oz. level and looks set to also test big-figure support at $2,000/oz. Gold Daily Price Chart Charts via TradingView Retail trader data show60.37% of traders are net-long gold with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.52 to 1.The number of traders net long is 9.54% lower than yesterday and 6.77% lower than last week, while the number of traders net short is 20.35% higher than yesterday and 11.68% higher than last week. See how daily and weekly changes in IG Retail Trader data can affect sentiment and price action. What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-dollar-jumps-on-higher-than-expected-inflation-data-gold-crumbles-into-support-20240213.html

2024-02-13 09:11

Pound Sterling (GBP/USD, GBP/JPY) Analysis Employment and earnings data may weigh on BoE inflation projections Sterling rises in a week filled with UK data (GBP/USD) GBP/JPY attempts to conquer key resistance level The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Employment and Earnings Data May Weigh on BoE Inflation Projections UK employment data rose in December after witnessing even greater additions in the two months prior. Momentum in the job market appears to be positive but a reweighting of the Labour Force Survey from today onwards means that volatile readings may continue to appear in the coming months. By their own admission the Office for National Statistics (ONS) states, ‘…we would advise caution when interpreting short-term changes in headline rates and recommend using them as part of our suite of labour market indicators alongside Workforce Jobs, claimant count data and Pay As You Earn Real Time Information (PAYE RTI) estimates’. The reweighting is meant to improve the representativeness of Labour Force Survey estimates. The average earnings figure is down from prior readings but beat estimates, perhaps a sign that wage growth will not decline in a more linear fashion. The Bank of England (BoE) revealed in their updated quarterly projections that average earnings is expected to head towards 4.25% at the end of this year. Also included in the economic projections was a massive improvement in inflation which the Bank estimates will reach the 2% target at the end of 2H. For that to materialize, more softening in the job market is likely to be needed along with further easing in the average earnings data. Sterling Rises in a Week Filled with UK Data GBP/USD rose after the employment and earnings data as the pair returns to a familiar range. GBP/USD attempted to break below the trading range that had formed late last year and continued at the start of 2024 but ultimately lacked the required momentum. The pair is now back above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and heading higher within the trading range highlighted in orange. With UK inflation and GDP data also due this week, it could be a noisy one for sterling. CPI is forecast to rise slightly, while the local economy potentially dipped into a technical recession in the final quarter of last year – something that could weigh in the pound. However, the preliminary version of the data is always subject to revision at later dates, meaning that a tiny contraction in Q4 may not have a massively negative impact on the pound. Resistance appears at 1.2736 with support at range support (1.2585) GBP/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow GBP/JPY Attempts to Conquer Key Resistance Level GBP/JPY received a boost on the back of employment and earnings data, seeing the pair trade above 188.80 – a significant level of resistance which prompted prior reversals. The Japanese yen has depreciated this year as Bank of Japan members distances themselves from any imminent policy changes regarding the interest rate, signalling a preference to wait for key wage negotiations to run their course and observe further inflation data. One risk to further upside would be if we see the Japanese Finance Ministry express its displeasure at the recent yen weakness. GBP/JPY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/uk-jobs-and-earnings-data-give-the-pound-a-boost-gbp-usd-gbp-jpy-20240213.html

2024-02-13 00:10

MARKET FORECAST – GOLD PRICES, USD/JPY, GBP/USD The U.S. dollar moves without directional conviction on Monday ahead of U.S. CPI data The January U.S. inflation report will steal the market’s attention on Tuesday This article focuses on the technical outlook for gold prices, USD/JPY and GBP/USD Most Read: EUR/USD Forecast - US Inflation Data to Drive Market Sentiment, Breakdown in Play The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, traded nervously at the start of the new week, moving up and down around the flatline without making significant headway in either direction amid mixed U.S. Treasury yields. The upcoming report is expected to show that annual headline inflation moderated to 2.9% last month from 3.4% previously, a welcome development for the U.S. central bank. Core CPI is also seen cooling, but in a more gradual fashion, easing to 3.7% from 3.9% in December. For a complete overview of the U.S. dollar’s technical and fundamental outlook, request your complimentary Q1 trading forecast now! To gauge the potential market response to the data on key financial assets, traders should look at how the official results compare to consensus forecasts, paying particular attention to the trend in the core metrics. If progress on disinflation hits a roadblock and CPI numbers surprise to the upside, yields and the U.S. dollar are likely to extend their recent rebound, weighing on gold prices. This is because sticky inflation could push out the timing of the first FOMC rate cut and reduce the odds of aggressive easing in 2024. On the other hand, if CPI figures come in lower than anticipated, the opposite reaction could unfold, especially if the miss is significant. Under such circumstances, bond yields and the greenback could correct sharply lower in the near term, boosting precious metals in the process. GOLD PRICE FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) fell on Monday, but losses were limited, with the precious metal lacking strong directional conviction – a sign of market indecision. For more attractive trading setups to develop, resistance at $2.065 or support at $2.005 needs to give way. In the event of a resistance breakout, a rally toward $2,085 could follow quickly. With continued strength, the focus will soon shift to the all-time high near $2,150. Conversely, if support is breached, attention will turn to $1,990, followed by $1,975. Below this area, the next key technical floor is located at $1,965. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView USD/JPY FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY ticked up modestly on Monday, consolidating above technical support at 148.90. If prices extend higher in the coming days, resistance emerges around the psychological 150.00 level. Bulls may struggle to clear this barrier, but in the event of a bullish breakout, a retest of the 152.00 area is likely. Conversely, if the pair takes a turn downward and breaches support at 148.90, selling momentum could pick up pace, setting the stage for a pullback towards 147.40. Further losses from this point onward could draw attention to the 146.00 handle, followed by 145.50, the 50-day simple moving average. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView GBP/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD has staged a moderate comeback after selling off earlier in the month, reclaiming its 200-day simple moving average and consolidating above the 1.2600 handle. If cable’s rebound extends over the next few trading sessions, resistance looms at 1.2675 (50-day SMA), followed by 1.2740. On the flip side, if GBP/USD resumes its bearish reversal and dips below 1.2600, trendline support and the 200-day simple moving average appear at 1.2565. Bulls will need to defend this technical zone tooth and nail; failure to do so could usher in a move towards 1.2500. GBP/USD TECHNICAL CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-on-tenterhooks-ahead-of-us-cpi-setups-on-gold-usd-jpy-gbp-usd-20240213.html