2024-02-12 17:30

EURO OUTLOOK EUR/USD slides on Monday, turning lower after failing to clear resistance at 1.0785 Market attention will be on the January U.S. inflation report on Tuesday This article explores EUR/USD’s key technical levels to watch in the coming days Most Read: Gold Dips as Stocks Fly; EUR/USD, GBP/USD Await US Inflation EUR/USD retreated moderately at the start of the new week, dragged down by the broad-based strength of the U.S. dollar, as demonstrated by a 0.15% increase in the DXY index, which took place in a context of rising U.S. Treasury yields. Monday’s price action was unimpressive, as many traders remained on the sidelines, waiting for new catalysts that could spark more meaningful moves. Tuesday, however, promises a shift, with the potential for increased volatility in the FX markets, driven by the anticipated release of U.S. inflation data. In terms of consensus estimates, annual headline CPI is forecast to have downshifted to 2.9% in January from 3.4% in the previous month. The core gauge is also seen moderating, but in a more gradual fashion, easing to 3.7% from 3.9% previously. Eager to discover what the future holds for the euro? Delve into our Q1 trading forecast for expert insights. Get your free copy now! If progress in disinflation stalls or proceeds less favorably than anticipated, the Fed may be inclined to delay the start of its easing cycle, propelling U.S. yields higher. This could reinforce the U.S. dollar’s rebound witnessed in 2024, creating a hostile environment for the euro. Conversely, if CPI figures surprise to the downside, the opposite market response is likely to unfold, especially if the miss is substantial. This outcome could reignite speculation of a rate cut at the March FOMC meeting, weighing on yields and the U.S. dollar. This scenario would be bullish for EUR/USD. UPCOMING US INFLATION REPORT Wondering how retail positioning can shape EUR/USD’s trajectory in the near term? Our sentiment guide provides the answers you are looking for—don't miss out, get the guide now! EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD pushed towards resistance at 1.0785 on Monday, but then reversed course. If this bearish rejection is confirmed in the coming days, sellers could spark a move towards 1.0720. The pair may find stability in this area before rebounding, but a breakdown would put the 1.0650 level squarely in focus. On the other hand, if sentiment flips back in favor of buyers and EUR/USD breaks above 1.0785 decisively, we could see a rally towards the 200-day simple moving average and trendline resistance at 1.0835 in the near term. Looking higher, attention will turn to the 1.0900 handle. EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-eur-usd-forecast-us-inflation-data-to-drive-market-sentiment-breakdown-in-play-20240212.html

2024-02-12 14:30

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Analysis and Charts Economic data will help Sterling traders. GBP/USD finding support from the long-term moving average. Sterling has recovered around half of its recent losses against the US dollar after UK rate cut expectations were pared back last week. Aggressive expectations of over 110 basis points of cuts have been trimmed back to just over 80 basis points of cuts this year, boosting UK gilt yields. The yield on the interest-rate sensitive 2-year gilt today touched 4.60%, up from around 4.20% at the start of February and a 3.965% low at the end of December. This hike in short-term government bond yields should have pushed Sterling higher against a range of other currencies but so far this has failed to happen. UK 2-Year Gilt Yield Cable is currently testing 1.26 big figure support, a level that was sharply broken and then quickly regained at the start of last week. GBP/USD also traded below the 200-day simple moving average for the first time since mid-November, but again this technical indicator was quickly regained. GBP/USD bulls may find it difficult to push above the 1.2662/1.2673 level, unless this week’s data is supportive, while last Monday’s low of 1.2519 should hold short-term selling pressure. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart using TradingView Retail trader GBP/USD data show 48.49% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.06 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 7.24% higher than yesterday and 18.75% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.17% higher than yesterday and 38.56% higher than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to rise. What Does Changing Retail Sentiment Mean for GBP/USD Price Action? EUR/GBP continues to trade below a prior level of support around 0.8549 as the Euro weakens further. All three simple moving averages are in a bearish formation and the pair may re-test the recent multi-month low at 0.8513. Below here, 0.8503 comes into focus. EUR/GBP Daily Price Chart What is your view on the British Pound – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/british-pound-latest-heavyweight-uk-data-will-steer-gbp-usd-eur-gbp-in-the-days-ahead-20240212.html

2024-02-12 09:22

Gold (XAU/USD), Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis and Charts Q1 2024 Gold Forecast: Gold in need of a driver – will US CPI help? Bitcoin - a confirmed break of $49k should bring $52k back into play quickly. A quiet start to what should be a busy week, not helped by most Asian markets being closed for holidays. Chinese markets are closed all week for the Lunar New Year while Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea were also closed today. With little economic data on the calendar today, traders should be mindful of a handful of central banker speeches throughout the day. On Tuesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the latest inflation data at 13:30 UK. Core inflation y/y (January) is seen falling to 3.8% from 3.9%, while headline inflation is seen falling to 3% from a prior month’s level of 3.4%. While any easing of US price pressures will be welcomed by the Federal Reserve, it is unlikely to move the dial toward a March rate cut. Current market pricing shows just a 17.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in March. The daily gold chart shows the current lack of volatility in the precious metal. Gold remains stuck in a narrow trading range with the current 14-day ATR showing a reading of just over $20. Resistance remains around the $2,044/oz. area while support is seen at $2,010/0z. ahead of $2,000/oz. Gold traders will be hoping that Tuesday’s US inflation data will inject some volatility into the precious metal. Gold Daily Price Chart Chart via TradingView Retail trader data shows 66.31% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.97 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 4.41% higher than yesterday and 7.80% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.05% higher than yesterday and 2.21% lower than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. See how daily and weekly changes in IG Retail Trader data can affect sentiment and price action. In contrast to gold, Bitcoin traders are enjoying a renewed bout of volatility with the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization currently eyeing a test on levels last seen in December 2021. The recent post-ETF sell-off and rally has pushed BTC/USD back above $48k with the January 11 high at a fraction under $49k seen as the next target. Above here there is little in the way of resistance on the weekly chart before $52k comes into play. The latest rally is being driven not just by the successful release of a range of spot Bitcoin ETFs over the last month, but also by the Bitcoin halving event which is expected on April 17. Bitcoin halving is an event, that occurs approximately every four years and is programmed into Bitcoin’s code that cuts miners’ rewards for adding new blocks to the Bitcoin by 50%. This reduction in supply leads to increased scarcity and if demand for Bitcoin remains constant, or increases, drives the price of BTC higher. In 2012 the halving cut BTC mining rewards from 50 BTC to 25 BTC, in 2016 from 25 to 12.5 BTC, in 2020 from 12.5 BTC to 6.25. In next year’s halving – expected in mid-April - the reward for mining a Bitcoin block will be cut to 3.125 BTC. Bitcoin Weekly Price Chart What is your view on Gold and Bitcoin – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-xau-usd-listless-ahead-of-us-cpi-bitcoin-btc-usd-probes-multi-year-high-20240212.html

2024-02-11 18:00

MARKET FORECAST: GOLD, US DOLLAR, EUR/USD, GBP/USD Gold prices fall on rising U.S. Treasury yields and a strengthening U.S. dollar EUR/USD and GBP/USD inch lower, but manage to hold above important tech levels The U.S. inflation report is likely to be a source of volatility in the week ahead Most Read: US Dollar Eyes US CPI for Fresh Signals; Setups on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold Gold prices retreated last week in response to rising U.S. Treasury rates. Despite the increase in bond yields, which can negatively impact risk assets at times, U.S. stocks posted a strong performance, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closing at fresh records. S&P 500 AND NASDAQ 100 PERFORMANCE Source: TradingView Will the U.S. dollar continue to rebound or begin to retreat? Request our Q1 USD trading forecast to find out! In the FX market, the U.S. dollar climbed for the fourth consecutive week, although gains were limited. In this context, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD edged lower, but ultimately managed to hold above key support levels. USD/JPY, meanwhile, rallied strongly, coming close to regaining the 150.00 handle. UPCOMING US CPI REPORT In the grand scheme of things, a hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI report should be positive for U.S. yields and the U.S. dollar, but bearish for stocks and gold prices. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, for instance, may face challenges in sustaining their upward trajectory if progress on disinflation disappoints. On the flip side, if inflation numbers surprise to the downside, the opposite scenario is likely to unfold, resulting in lower yields and a weaker U.S. dollar. This, in turn, should provide support for both equities and precious metals, at least in the short term. For a comprehensive analysis of the factors that may influence financial markets and become a potential source of volatility in the upcoming trading sessions, check out the following selection of key forecasts compiled and prepared by the DailyFX team. FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL FORECASTS British Pound Weekly Forecast: Busier Data Week Might Be Bruising Sterling remains relatively elevated despite recent US Dollar strength. This week may make life a bit tougher for Sterling bulls. Gold Price Forecast: US Inflation to Dictate Direction, Volatility Looms Ahead This article discusses the fundamental and technical outlook for gold prices ahead of next week's key U.S. inflation data, examining possible scenarios that could develop in the near term. US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY Price Action Setups Next week US CPI headlines the schedule of high importance data. This forecast considers how major currency pairs shape up ahead of the US CPI release. Eager to discover what the future holds for the euro? Delve into our Q1 trading forecast for expert insights. Get your free copy now! https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-markets-week-ahead-gold-dips-as-stocks-fly-eur-usd-gbp-usd-await-us-inflation-20240211.html

2024-02-10 10:00

GOLD PRICE WEEK AHEAD OUTLOOK Gold ticked down this week, but lacked strong conviction, with prices fluctuating aimlessly around the 50-day SMA, a sign of consolidation The January U.S. inflation report will be the focus of attention and a potential source of market volatility in the week ahead This article looks at XAU/USD’s technical outlook, examining important price thresholds worth watching in the near term Most Read: US Dollar Eyes US CPI for Fresh Signals, Setups on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold Gold prices (XAU/USD) closed the week down approximately 0.75%, settling slightly below the $2,025 mark, dragged lower by the sharp jump in U.S. Treasury yields seen in recent days following a string of strong U.S. economic data, including the January nonfarm payrolls report. For context, the yield on the 10-year U.S. bond was trading below 3.9% last Thursday, but has now surpassed 4.15% in less than seven sessions. GOLD, US YIELDS & US DOLLAR PERFORMANCE Source: TradingView Earlier in the year, the prospects for bullion appeared more positive. However, the bullish outlook has weakened, particularly after Federal Reserve officials began to coalesce around the stance that additional strides in controlling inflation are necessary before beginning to reduce borrowing costs, which currently stand at their highest level in more than two decades. The central bank’s guidance has prompted the unwinding of overly dovish bets on the monetary policy path, as seen in the chart below. Traders now discount just 102 basis points of easing for 2024, a sharp reduction from the nearly 160 basis points expected mere weeks earlier. The shift in market pricing has boosted the U.S. dollar across the board, creating an unfriendly environment for precious metals. FED FUNDS FUTURES – IMPLIED YIELD BY MONTH Source: TradingView The FOMC’s current position to wait a bit longer before removing policy restriction could be validated if January inflation numbers, due for release on Tuesday, reveal limited inroads toward price stability. In terms of estimates, headline CPI is forecast to have cooled to 3.0% y/y from 3.3% y/y previously. The core gauge is also seen moderating but in a more gradual fashion, slowing only to 3.8% y/y from 3.9% y/y in December. UPCOMING US CPI REPORT If progress on disinflation falters or proceeds less favorably than anticipated, U.S. Treasury yields are likely to push higher, reinforcing the greenback’s recovery witnessed recently. This should be bearish for precious metals, at least in the near term. Conversely, if CPI figures surprise to the downside, the opposite scenario may play out, particularly if the miss is significant. This could lead to lower yields and a softer U.S. dollar, boosting gold prices in the process. Regardless of the outcome, volatility should make an appearance in the coming week. Wondering how retail positioning can shape gold prices? Our sentiment guide provides the answers you are looking for—don't miss out, get the guide now! GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) fell modestly this past week, but lacked a strong directional bias, with the metal moving up and down around the 50-day simple moving average, a clear sign of consolidation. The market's lack of conviction is not likely to end until prices either breach resistance around $2,065 or support near $2,005. As for possible outcomes, a resistance breakout could trigger a rally towards $2,085 and possibly even $2,150 in case of sustained strength. On the other hand, a support breakdown could boost downward impetus, setting the stage for a drop towards $1,990. On further weakness, the spotlight will be on $1,975. GOLD PRICE (XAU/USD) TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/xau-usd-gold-price-forecast-us-inflation-to-dictate-direction-volatility-looms-ahead-20240210.html

2024-02-09 13:00

Major Indices Update: FTSE 100 drops on AstraZeneca disappointment Dow trades close to record highs Nikkei 225 scales new 34-year high FTSE 100 drops on AstraZeneca disappointment The FTSE 100 has been rapidly declining from this week’s 7,710 Wednesday high amid disappointing UK company earnings with AstraZeneca on Thursday wiping off around 40 points on the FTSE 100 and the index slipping to the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,603 and Thursday’s 7,590 low. A tumble through 7,590 would push the 200-day SMA at 7,548 to the fore, together with the mid-November and early December highs at 7,543 to 7,535. Minor resistance sits at Wednesday’s 7,626 low. FTSE 100 Daily Chart Source: ProRealTime, Prepared by Axel Rudolph Dow trades close to record highs The Dow Jones Industrial Average, unlike its peers like the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500, hasn’t managed to make a new record high this week as yet but continues to grind higher towards the 38,800 region ahead of the major psychological 40,000 mark as the US economy and employment remain strong. In case of a retracement being seen, the 31 January high at 38,583 and the October to February uptrend line at 38,470 may be revisited. While no fall through the second to last daily reaction low at the 1 February at 38,105 is seen, the medium-term uptrend remains intact. Dow Jones Daily Chart Source: ProRealTime, Prepared by Axel Rudolph The Nikkei 225 scales new 34-year high The Nikkei 225 has resumed its ascent and has risen to a new 34-year high at 37,293, a rise above which would put the psychological 40,000 mark on the cards. First, though, the January peak at 37,003 would need to be once again exceeded on a daily chart closing basis. Were a retracement lower to be seen, however, last week’s high at 36,511 should act as at least interim support. Nikkei 225 Daily Chart Source: ProRealTime, Prepared by Axel Rudolph https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-drops-dow-remains-bid-and-nikkei-225-makes-new-34-year-high-20240209.html