2024-02-01 08:49

US Dollar and Gold Analysis, Prices, and Charts March rate cut probabilities are cut back sharply as Powell continues to look at data. Gold prints a sixth successive higher low despite dampened rate expectations. Learn How to Trade Gold with our Expert Guide: Most Read: Markets Week Ahead: Fed and BoE Decisions, US Jobs Data, Microsoft, Apple Amazon Report Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell tempered market rate cut expectations yesterday, saying that the central bank needed greater confidence that inflation would hit target adding, ’I don’t think it’s likely that we’ll reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting, I don’t think that’s the base case.’ Going into the meeting the market was pricing a 50/50 chance of a March rate cut, the current probability is seen at just 35%. Despite the Fed pushback, financial markets still expect the US central bank to cut interest rates by nearly 150 basis points this year. With the Fed reiterating that they remain data dependent, Friday’s US Jobs Report (NFPs) takes even greater significance than usual especially after yesterday’s US ADP Report missed expectations (+107k actual vs. +145k forecast). Nonfarm payrolls are expected to show 180k new jobs added in January, compared to 216k in December, while the unemployment rate is seen rising to 3.8% from a prior reading of 3.7%. After posting a multi-week low of $2,002/oz. in mid-January, gold has put in a solid, if unspectacular, performance. The precious metal hit a pre-FOMC high yesterday of $2,056/oz. before fading lower to trade around $2,042/oz. Gold has posted six consecutive higher lows and is back above all three simple moving averages for the first time in a month. The CCI indicator shows gold heading towards overbought territory. Initial support is seen around $2,032/oz. ahead of $2,010/oz. and $2,002/oz. A break above Wednesday’s high should leave gold bulls looking at $2,088/oz. as the first short-term target. Gold Daily Price Chart Chart via TradingView Retail trader data show 58.92% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.43 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 9.22% lower than yesterday and 15.32% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.16% higher than yesterday and 7.10% higher than last week. See how daily and weekly changes in IG Retail Trader data can affect sentiment and price action. What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-dollar-holding-post-fomc-gains-for-now-gold-continues-to-nudge-higher-20240201.html

2024-01-31 23:00

Most Read: Fed Holds Steady, Ditches Tightening Bias; Gold and US Dollar on the Move The Federal Reserve on Wednesday concluded its first monetary policy meeting of the year, voting to maintain borrowing costs unchanged at their present 5.25% to 5.50% range, in a decision widely expected by market participants. The FOMC also dropped its tightening bias, but signaled that it is not yet ready to ease its stance imminently. Powell went further during his post-meeting press conference, admitting that policymakers may not be confident enough to slash the cost of money at their next gathering. With the likelihood of a March cut appearing slim at the moment, the U.S. dollar may have room to rebound in the near term, but the recovery thesis depends on incoming information showing that the economy continues to perform well. In the absence of good data, a March move is still a possibility. Source: CME Group In the current context, the December U.S. nonfarm payrolls report will take on added significance. In terms of estimates, U.S. employers are forecast to have added 180,000 jobs last month, though the weakness in the ADP and several PMI surveys for the same period argue for a softer print. UPCOMING US JOBS REPORT If job growth surprises to the downside by a wide margin, a March rate cut could reenter the picture. This would exert downward pressure on Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, but should support gold prices and other precious metals, including silver. Conversely, if NFP numbers beat expectations and come on the strong side, we could see further unwinding of dovish bets on the Fed’s policy path - a bullish outcome for yields and the greenback. Gold, however, would not fare well in this scenario. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold inched higher on Wednesday but failed to clear resistance at $2,050, with prices pulling back after testing this area. It's too early to determine if this technical ceiling will hold, but in case it does, XAU/USD may retreat towards $2,005. On further weakness, a move towards $1,990 could materialize. In contrast, if bulls regain decisive control of the market and manage to drive prices decisively above $2,050, buying momentum could gather pace, setting the stage for a possible rally towards $2,065. Above this pivotal level, all eyes will be on $2,065—the highs from late December. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView Unlock exclusive insights and customized strategies for EUR/USD by requesting the comprehensive trading guide for the euro! EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has declined sharply recently, guided lower by the upper boundary of a falling wedge—a bullish pattern. To confirm this technical setup, prices must take out resistance at 1.0870. Such a scenario could usher in a rally toward the 50-day simple moving average at 1.0920, with the next target at 1.0950. Conversely, if EUR/USD deepens losses, initial support looms at 1.0780, followed by 1.0730, an important floor created by a long-term ascending trendline in play since September 2022. Vigilant defense of this zone by the bulls is imperative; any failure to protect this barrier may trigger a drop toward 1.0650. EUR/USD TECHNICAL CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Curious about the correlation between retail positioning and USD/JPY’s short-term path? Discover all the insights in our sentiment guide. Request a free copy now! USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS After a positive performance on Tuesday, USD/JPY changed course and slipped beneath the 100-day SMA at 147.40, signaling a bearish shift for the pair. If the retreat continues later this week, support is seen at 146.00. Below that, all eyes will be on the 50-day simple moving average. On the other hand, if the bulls reemerge and trigger a meaningful rebound, the first technical barrier against further advances is located at 147.40. Beyond that, the next hurdle for the bullish camp will be trendline resistance at 148.00. Further up, the focus will be on 148.80. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView GBP/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Over the past few weeks, GBP/USD has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle- a continuation pattern composed of two converging trendlines: an ascending one connecting a sequence of higher highs and a descending one linking a series of lower lows. The symmetrical triangle is validated once prices of the underlying asset move outside the boundaries of the geometric shape, with the confirmation signal carrying greater strength if the break happens in the direction of the broader trend. In the case of GBP/USD, traders should watch two areas: resistance at 1.2750 and support at 1.2645. If support gives way, the bearish camp will likely focus on 1.2600, 1.2550 and 1.2455. On the flip side, if resistance is taken out, bulls may set their sights on 1.2830 and possibly even 1.3000. GBP/USD TECHNICAL CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-looks-to-jobs-data-after-fed-setups-on-gold-eur-usd-usd-jpy-gbp-usd-20240131.html

2024-01-31 21:30

When is Meta’s earnings date? Meta reports Q4 earnings on 1 February. Expectations are for $4.95 in earnings per share and $39 billion in revenue. How has Meta performed? The tech giant saw a staggering 194% jump in its stock price in 2023, a testament to the company's robust performance in key areas such as user growth, engagement, and monetization—all achieved with a leaner operation. The surge in Meta's stock can primarily be attributed to significant improvements in user engagement. The company's platforms have seen a consistent increase in active users, which translates to a wider audience for advertisers to target. This growth in user base is a clear indicator that the company continues to innovate and remain relevant in the ever-changing social media landscape. Furthermore, Meta's monetization strategies have proven to be highly effective. One of the key drivers of this success has been the company's focus on Reels, its short-form video feature that competes with the likes of TikTok. Reels have not only captured the attention of users but also that of advertisers. The increasing attraction of advertisers to this feature suggests that Meta has successfully created a new revenue stream that is likely to have a positive impact on its advertising revenue, especially after a period of neutral and even negative impacts in previous quarters. Another factor contributing to Meta's success is its investment in data analytics, campaign planning, and measurement tools powered by artificial intelligence (AI). These advanced tools enable advertisers to target their campaigns more effectively, ensuring better returns on investment. An important aspect of the trading landscape is the pricing of ads. Data indicates that ad prices have seen an increase from the previous year, which is a positive sign for social media companies like Meta. Higher ad prices can lead to increased revenue, which in turn can drive stock prices up. However, traders should always be aware of the broader economic context in which companies operate. While Meta's performance has been strong, forecasts by entities like Morningstar suggest a deceleration in revenue growth in 2024. As the transition from traditional to digital advertising nears completion, the explosive growth rates seen in recent years may not be sustainable. Additionally, projections of a slowdown in U.S. economic growth in 2024 could impact advertising budgets and, consequently, Meta's revenue. On the operational front, Meta has indicated a slowdown in hiring. This strategic decision aligns with the company's efforts to boost efficiency and productivity among its existing workforce rather than expanding headcount significantly. Analyst ratings for Meta Refinitiv data show a consensus analyst rating of ‘buy’ for Meta with 19 strong buys, 33 buys, 7 holds, and 2 sells – and a mean of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of $372.40 for the share, roughly 3% higher than the current price (as of 22 January 2024). Technical outlook on the Meta share price Meta’s share price is in the process of making a new record high by overcoming its August 2021 peak at $384.33, a rise and weekly chart close above which would engage the minor psychological $400 mark. Meta Weekly Candlestick Chart Source TradingView The Meta share price is on track for its third straight week of gains with it retaining a strongly bullish outlook while it remains above its last reaction low, a low on the daily candlestick chart which is lower than the one on the preceding and the following days. This was made at $358.61 on Wednesday the 17 January. Meta Daily Candlestick Chart Source TradingView The fact that the Meta share price gapped higher twice since last Wednesday is positive for the bulls as it shows how strong the buying pressure currently is. While the October-to-January uptrend line at $353.51 and, more importantly, the second-to-last reaction low on the 2 of January at $340.01 underpin, the current medium-term bullish outlook remains in play. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/meta-stock-price-at-record-high-ahead-of-earnings-20240131.html

2024-01-31 19:15

FOMC INTEREST RATE DECISION KEY POINTS The Fed holds interest rates steady at its January meeting, in line with expectations Policymakers drop their tightening bias in favor of a more neutral stance, but signal a rate cut is not imminent Gold price trim gains as the U.S. dollar and yields attempt to mount a recovery Most Read: US Dollar Tech Setups– EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD; Volatility Ahead The Federal Reserve concluded its first monetary policy gathering of 2024 today and voted by unanimous decision to maintain its benchmark interest rate unchanged within in its current range of 5.25% to 5.50%, in line with consensus expectations. Almost two years ago, the Fed initiated one of its most aggressive hiking cycles in decades to tackle runaway inflation, delivering 525 basis points of rate increases in process. However, over the past four meetings, the institution has remained on hold due to softening price pressures in the economy. For context, headline CPI peaked above at 9% y-o-y in 2022, but has since fallen sharply, clocking in at 3.4% y-o-y last month. While still above the 2% target established by the central bank, progress on disinflation argues for a more cautious approach, as risks have become more two-sided. US HEADLINE AND CORE CPI Source: BLS Want to know more about the U.S. dollar's outlook? Find all the insights in our Q1 trading forecast. Request a free copy now! Focusing on the FOMC communique, the institution offered a constructive view of the economy, acknowledging that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, while reaffirming confidence in the labor market by noting that employment gains have been strong despite some moderation. Regarding the evolution of consumer prices, policymakers maintained the wording from the previous statement, repeating that inflation has eased over the past year, but persists at elevated levels. Turning attention to forward guidance, the central bank conveyed a slightly dovish outlook by dropping its tightening bias in favor of a more neutral message, with the central bank recognizing that the risks to “achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance”. While the overall tone was a bit more dovish, the Fed also indicated that it does not expect to reduce borrowing costs “until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. This may be a sign that the FOMC is not yet ready to pull the trigger and ease its stance at the March meeting. Immediately after the FOMC announcement was released, gold prices pared some of their early session gains as Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar attempted to stage a comeback. Powell is likely to offer more clues on the path of monetary policy, so traders should pay attention to his comments during the press conference. Eager to gain insights into gold's future path? Discover the answers in our complimentary quarterly trading guide. Request a copy now! US DOLLAR, YIELDS AND GOLD PRICES REACTION https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-fed-holds-steady-ditches-tightening-bias-gold-and-us-dollar-on-the-move-20240131.html

2024-01-31 17:30

Article by IG Market Analyst Tony Sycamore When will Apple report its latest earnings? Apple is scheduled to report its first (Q1) earnings on Thursday, February 1, 2024. The backdrop Apple Q4 2023 earnings, reported in early November, beat analysts' expectations for sales and earnings per share, but the company said its quarterly revenues fell 1% year over year. Tim Cook, Apple's CEO, said, "We now have our strongest lineup of products ever heading into the holiday season, including the iPhone 15 lineup and our first carbon-neutral Apple Watch models, a major milestone in our efforts to make all Apple products carbon neutral by 2030." Digging deeper into the Q4 2023 earnings report, the following highlights could be observed. • An all-time revenue record in Services of $22.31 billion vs the $21.35 billion expected. The Services segment includes subscriptions like iCloud Storage, App Store and Apple Music. • A September quarter revenue record for iPhone of $43.81 billion. Furthermore, the iPhone was the only hardware line for Apple to show growth in the quarter, as Apple's Mac and iPad business contracted during the quarter. The period only included about one week of iPhone 15 sales. • The Wearables section, which includes Air Pods and Apple Watches, fell over 3% YoY. Net Sales by Category Source Apple.com Of concern to shareholders, Apple's sales in Greater China, its third largest market, were flat on the year. Chinese government officials are banned from using Apple's devices in favor of homegrown products like Huawei. Outside of the public sector, the Chinese consumer remains cautious, as the Chinese economy remains tepid. Net Sales by Segment Source Apple.com What to look for in Q2? In its Q4 Earnings call, CFO Luca Maestri guided that Apple expected December quarter revenue to be like last year's. After a recent broker upgrade, which helped to spark a sharp move higher in the Apple share price, there will be interest in commentary around the following topics. • The potential for long term gains as the company integrates AI into iPhones. • Prospects for the Vision Pro virtual reality headset, which is scheduled to launch on February 2 – a launch which seems to be lacking "buzz". • Whether Apple continues to win market share in a contracting Chinese market. • An update in iPhone 15 sales. • The impact of the removal of the Oxygen feature from Apple Watches after its legal setback. • Insights into the iPhone 16 due for release in September of this year. Key Financials - Summary Wall Street's expectations for the upcoming results are as follows. • EPS: $2.11 vs $1.46 per share previous quarter • Revenue: $117.95 billion vs $89.5 billion Apple’s Sales Revenue Source Trading Economics Technical Analysis Following an almost 48% gain in 2023, Apple's share price has shaken off some New Year nerves to be trading higher in January, just 2.5% below its $199.62 all-time high. Providing Apple's share price remains above a band of support near $180.00/75, which includes the 200-day moving average at $181.45, recent lows in the $180 area, and uptrend support, we expect to see Apple's shares break above resistance at $199 in the coming months towards $220.00. Aware that if Apple's share price were to see a sustained break below $180/75, it would warn that a deeper pullback is underway, initially towards the $165.57 low from last October. Summary Apple is scheduled to report its first (Q1) earnings on Thursday, February 1, 2024. Ahead of the release, Apple's share price is holding above important support at $180/75 but below its all-time high at $199.62. An earnings beat and positive forward guidance should catalyse a push to new all-time highs. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/apple-q1-2024-earnings-preview-20240131.html

2024-01-31 15:42

Cable (GBP/USD) Analysis A big couple of days for major central bankers (Fed, BoE) GBP/USD range to be tested by major central bank announcements The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library A Big Couple of Days for Major Central Bankers (Fed, BoE) The Fed is all set to provide an update on its policy settings but there is a strong expectations there will be no change in the interest rate. Instead, markets are looking for clues on the bank’s thinking and whether a March or May cut is preferred. However, the data-dependent Fed is more likely to bide its time, opting to digest incoming data before making such a decision. Then tomorrow the Bank of England (BoE) will have its turn but can offer more for markets to look at as it releases its latest staff forecasts, with markets focused on inflation and growth. The week ends with non-farm payrolls and the Michigan consumer sentiment survey which has been on the up of late – matching strong fundamental data. The Bank of England has been focused on the labour market, wage growth and services inflation. The labour market has witnessed some easing while wage growth has moderated but still remains elevated. Services inflation is the more stubborn metric and as long as it remains elevated, the BoE will have to maintain its more hawkish rhetoric. Services inflation is the red line below and has resisted the opportunity to track lower alongside CPI and core CPI. Source: Refinitiv Datastream, prepared by Richard Snow GBP/USD Range to be Tested by Major Central Bank Announcements Cable has exhibited an extended period of sideways trading within a broad range. The upper side of the range is at 1.2800 with the lower side at 1.2585 – encapsulating the majority of price action since mid-December. The pair has the potential to breach the range on either side given the volatility major central banks attract, but the big question remains whether enough momentum can sustain a potential directional move. Any significant revelations perceived by the market has the potential to change the trading landscape for the pair. Support at 1.2585, then the 200-day simple moving average. Resistance at 1.2800. GBP/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/pound-gbp-usd-outlook-cable-jumps-in-the-lead-up-to-fomc-20240131.html