2023-08-09 02:36

The 61.8 of the AUDUSD range from 2022 low comes in at 0.65468. The 100 hour MA is at 0.6552. Stay below is more bearish for the AUDUSD The AUDUSD traded to a new low since the beginning of June yesterday but bounced higher. Technically, the move to the downside broke back below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the 2022 low at 0.65468. The price had been below that technical level for 3 days last week, but failed on that break. This week, sellers are getting a 2nd shot below the retracement level. If they could keep a lid on the pair, we could see further selling momentum in trading today with the low price from the year at 0.64568 the next major target. AUDUSD below the 61.8% retracement level. https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-sellers-are-more-in-control-close-risk-is-the-618-on-daily-and-100-hour-ma-20230808/

2023-08-09 02:35

Stay below keeps the seller in play EURUSD stalls against the 100 hour MA The EURUSD moved modestly higher in the early trading for the day and reached up to the 100-hour MA at 1.09687. Sellers leaned against the level keeping the sellers in play. The price is modestly off the level at 1.0963 currently. On the downside, remember, the price yesterday moved down toward the 100-day MA yesterday and found early buyers. Last week, the 100-day MA was tested on Wednesday and Thursday. So the 100-hour MA above, and the 100-day MA below continue to define the range for the EURUSD. Still waiting for the break outside one of those MA levels. https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-sellers-lean-on-the-test-of-the-100-hour-ma-20230809/

2023-08-08 09:26

The EURUSD breaks all key supports and now everything revolves around one key level. Last week, the NFP missed expectations for a second time in a row and the previous numbers were all revised lower. This was seen as a disappointment as the labour market seems to be a touch weaker than previously expected. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate fell once again and lessened the disappointment from the miss in the payrolls number. The worse part for the Fed is that the average hourly earnings beat expectations, and such high wage growth is not consistent with a sustainable return to the 2% target. It’s worth reminding though, that the Fed will see another NFP report before the September meeting, so this NFP doesn’t change much, but the data leading into the meeting can still weigh on sentiment. The ECB, on the other hand, hiked by 25 bps and changed a line in the statement that leant more on the dovish side. President Lagarde didn’t hint to what we can expect next and, in line with the Fed, just reaffirmed their data dependency and kept all the options on the table. The data for the Eurozone has been consistently missing expectations, but the recent inflation and employment reports remained strong justifying another rate hike in September all else being equal. EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe EURUSD Daily On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD not only broke below the 1.1033 support but also the upward trendline which was acting as the last line of defence for the buyers. The bias now is clearly bearish as the price has breached all the key support levels and the moving averages have crossed to the downside. The first target for the sellers should be the bottom trendline around the 1.08 handle. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe EURUSD 4 hour On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has recently rallied following the miss in the NFP report last Friday into a strong resistance level where we can find the downward trendline, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the previous support turned resistance. This is where the sellers should pile in with a defined risk above the resistance to target the 1.08 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will need the price to break above the 1.1040 level with conviction to invalidate the bearish setup and start targeting the highs. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe EURUSD 1 hour On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support level at 1.0960. More conservative sellers may want to wait for the price to break below that level before piling in and ride the bearish wave into the 1.08 handle. https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-technical-analysis-everything-revolves-around-this-key-level-20230808/

2023-08-08 09:24

The GBPUSD bias has turned bearish. Last week, the NFP missed expectations for a second time in a row and the previous numbers were all revised lower. This was seen as a disappointment as the labour market seems to be a touch weaker than previously expected. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate fell once again and lessened the disappointment from the miss in the payrolls number. The worse part for the Fed is that the average hourly earnings beat expectations, and such high wage growth is not consistent with a sustainable return to the 2% target. It’s worth reminding though, that the Fed will see another NFP report before the September meeting, so this NFP doesn’t change much, but the data leading into the meeting can still weigh on sentiment. On the other hand, the BoE hiked by 25 bps as expected as the UK CPI missed expectations across the board and UK employment report showed a mixed picture with both the unemployment rate and wage growth higher. The central bank seemed to be leaning more on the less hawkish side as a key line in the statement was tweaked to indicate the propensity for a “higher for longer” stance rather than a “higher-er for longer” one. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe GBPUSD Daily On the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD fell all the way down to the previous swing low level around the 1.26 handle before seeing a bounce. The bias is now bearish as the moving averages have crossed to the downside and the price has been printing lower lows and lower highs. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe GBPUSD 4 hour On the 4 hour chart, we can see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a nice spot where to short from around the 1.2847 level where we can find the confluence with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the daily 21 moving average. The buyers, on the other hand, will need to break above that resistance to invalidate the bearish setup and start targeting the highs. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe GBPUSD 1 hour On the 1 hour chart, we can see that at the moment the price action is forming an ascending triangle. The price can break on either side of the pattern but what follows is generally an increase in momentum in the direction of the breakout. Therefore, if the price breaks below the bottom trendline, we can expect the sellers to pile in and target the 1.26 handle again. https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-technical-analysis-the-sellers-are-in-control-20230808/

2023-08-08 09:22

The USDCAD fails to sustain a break below the 1.3225 level, and it might now return to the highs. Last week, the NFP missed expectations for a second time in a row and the previous numbers were all revised lower. This was seen as a disappointment as the labour market seems to be a touch weaker than previously expected. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate fell once again and lessened the disappointment from the miss in the payrolls number. The worse part for the Fed is that the average hourly earnings beat expectations, and such high wage growth is not consistent with a sustainable return to the 2% target. It’s worth reminding though, that the Fed will see another NFP report before the September meeting, so this NFP doesn’t change much, but the data leading into the meeting can still weigh on sentiment. On the other hand, the BoC hiked rates by 25 bps as expected at the last meeting as the central bank doesn’t like the persistently high underlying inflation with a tight labour market. In the recently released Meeting Minutes the BoC seems less in a rush to hike rates again. The recent Canadian underlying inflation data beat expectations on all measures, and while the unemployment rate increased once again, the average hourly earnings surprised to the upside. Overall, it’s a mixed picture for the BoC but it should be more skewed to the hawkish side. USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe USDCAD Daily On the daily chart, we can see that the break below the key 1.3225 support has definitely failed and the USDCAD started a strong rally towards the highs. The price is now getting near a key resistance where we have the downward trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This is where the sellers are likely to step in to target the lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish momentum and take the price towards the 1.37 handle. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe USDCAD 4 hour On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the buyers are leaning on the red 21 moving average trading into the trendline. If the price rejects the resistance, we are likely to see the buyers entering again the market at the 21 moving average acting as a dynamic support. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe USDCAD 1 hour On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price is diverging with the MACD right when it’s approaching the resistance zone. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, if we get a pullback from the trendline, the buyers are likely to pile in around the 1.34 handle to target a breakout. Upcoming Events This week the main event will be the US CPI report on Thursday. The market is likely to focus more on the Core readings as this is what the Fed is more interested in. Higher than expected data should give the US Dollar a boost as the market’s expectations will be skewed more on the hawkish side. On the other hand, lower than expected readings should weigh on the USD as it would support the soft-landing narrative in the short-term. At the same time of the US CPI data, we will also see the latest US Jobless Claims report, which is less likely to move the market since it’s released at the same time of the CPI, but big surprises should have an effect, nonetheless. Finally, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report on Friday where the market is likely to focus more on the inflation expectations figures. https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-technical-analysis-the-pair-looks-set-to-reach-new-highs-20230808/

2023-08-08 09:19

No reprieve for the Australian dollar since the double-top pattern last month AUD/USD daily chart The pair caught a bit of a light breather in the past few sessions before all it needed was just one more poor data point out of China to knock it back down. The Chinese trade balance figures today were poor and it also highlighted a further fall in imports from Australia (19.9% year-on-year to be exact). I mean, the fact is outside of Russia, most of China's previously closely tied trading partners have seen a fall in trade when you look at the year-to-date numbers. It's in part due to China trying to manage its geopolitical position but it also reflects much weaker demand conditions and that's not a good thing for risk trades and the aussie. AUD/USD is finding that out the hard way today, down 0.8% to 0.6520 levels at the moment. The pair stays on course to retest the lows for the year and daily support at 0.6500 next. A break below that will put scrutiny on the 2022 lows near 0.6200 thereafter. Those will be the two key levels to watch for AUD/USD at the moment, as we gear towards the US CPI report later this week. https://www.forexlive.com/news/audusd-undoes-it-recent-bounce-stays-on-course-towards-06500-20230808/