2023-08-07 01:03

Can BUYERS push the price above the MA and stay above, or will the SELLERS lean and push the pair back lower? The AUDUSD reached Lowe's on Thursday of last week going back to June 1, 2023. However, the last few days have seen an up-and-down move that has taken the price higher. On Friday the AUDUSD extended above its falling 100-hour moving average for the 1st time since July 31. However, buying dried up, and the price extended back to the downside into the close. In trading today, the early momentum is to the upside. The price is currently retesting that 100-hour moving average at 0.65835. If the price is able to get and stay above that level, and then extend above Friday's highs near 0.66085, traders will next look toward the swing area near 0.6621 – 0.6635 followed by the falling 200-hour moving average of 0.6654 and 38.2% retracement level at 0.66589. It sounds like a lot of levels to get through, but that is what is needed to increase the bullish bias from a technical perspective in this currency pair. Conversely, traders that are bearish may look to lean against its 100-hour moving average at 0.65835. If that level can hold resistance, and move the price below 0.6558 – 0.6566, it would give sellers more confidence of another run down toward the low from last week at 0.65135. AUDUSD tests 100 hour MA https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-buyers-are-making-a-play-with-a-test-of-the-100-hour-ma-20230807/

2023-07-31 08:49

The S&P 500 has finally reached the key resistance. What’s next? Last week, the Fed hiked the interest rates by 25 bps as widely expected. The market was more focused on the Fed Chair Powell’s press conference for signals on the future moves. Unfortunately, Powell didn’t offer anything for the market as he kept all the options on the table and just repeated their data dependency when it comes to their future policy decisions. The economic data after the FOMC meeting supported the soft landing scenario with the US Jobless Claims beating expectations and the US PCE and Employment Cost Index missing the forecasts. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe S&P 500 Daily On the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 has eventually reached the key resistance at 4628. A break above this resistance would open the door for the all-time high. The price pulled back on the first test as the sellers are starting to step in aggressively here as the risk to reward is incredibly good, even in case of a deeper pullback. The buyers are likely to lean again on the red 21 moving average if the price gets there, but for now it’s just a waiting game as the market continues to consolidate. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe S&P 500 Technical Analysis On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the recent selloff from the key resistance ended at the 4558 support where the buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the level to target again a breakout of the resistance. We are likely to see some more rangebound price action here until the next catalyst pushes to price in either direction. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe S&P 500 1 hour This week we have lots of economic data. On Tuesday, the market will be focused on the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the US Job Openings. On Wednesday, it will be the time for the US ADP data. Moving on to Thursday, the US Jobless Claims and the ISM Services PMI will be the main events. And finally, on Friday, the main event of the week: the US NFP report. Given the market focus on the soft-landing narrative, we are likely to see more upside pressure in case the data comes out positive and vice versa in case the data disappoints. https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-500-technical-analysis-make-it-or-break-it-moment-for-the-market-20230731/

2023-07-31 08:44

The Dow Jones is targeting the all-time high. Last week, the Fed hiked interest rates by 25 bps bringing the FFR to 5.25-5.50% as widely expected. The policy statement was left unchanged, so the market couldn’t get any signal for the next moves. In fact, the focus was not on the decision itself, but on the forward guidance. Fed Chair Powell in his press conference repeated the message that they are data dependent and that all options are on the table, which means that they could either hike in September if the data remains strong or pause if they see weakness. The data following the FOMC meeting has been supporting the soft-landing narrative with US Jobless Claims beating expectations and the US PCE and Employment Cost Index missing the forecasts. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe Dow Jones Daily On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones has recently broke out of the key 32289 resistance and it’s now targeting the all-time high, which is less than 3% away. We are seeing some consolidation above the resistance as the market is taking a breather after a record winning streak. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe Dow Jones 4 hour On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we had a divergence with the MACD which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we got a pullback into the previous resistance now turned support where we had also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the support to target the all-time high. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe Dow Jones 1 hour On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the bullish momentum is still pretty strong and we should see more buyers piling in if the price breaks above the recent lower high at 35700. The sellers, on the other hand, might try to step in at the lower high with a defined risk above the high in anticipation of this whole breakout failing and leading to a selloff. More conservative sellers may want to wait for the price to first fall below the 35289 support before piling in and target new lows. Upcoming Events This week is packed with many top tier economic indicators. We begin tomorrow with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the US Job Openings. On Wednesday, we will see the US ADP report. Moving on to Thursday, the market will be focused on the US Jobless Claims and the US ISM Services PMI. Finally on Friday, we conclude the week with the main event: the US NFP report. https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/dow-jones-technical-analysis-the-all-time-high-is-in-sight-20230731/

2023-07-31 08:41

The Russell 2000 is approaching a key resistance. The Fed hiked interest rates by 25 bps as expected and kept everything unchanged. This outcome was already baked in, and the market was more interested on possible hints from Fed Chair Powell regarding the next policy moves. Unfortunately, Powell didn’t offer much as he just repeated their data dependency and kept all options on the table. The data since the FOMC meeting has been supporting the soft landing narrative with the US Jobless Claims beating expectations once again and the US PCE and Employment Cost Index coming lower than expected. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe Russell 2000 Daily On the daily chart, we can see that the Russell 2000 is starting to consolidate just beneath the key 2030 resistance zone. This is where we should see the sellers piling in aggressively with a defined risk above the resistance to target the lows. The buyers will need to break this strong zone with conviction to open the door for a rally towards the 2140 level. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a divergence with the MACD right when the price is nearing the resistance zone. This is a sign of weakening momentum, often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, the price pulled back to the 1965 support and bounced as the buyers piled in to target a breakout of the resistance. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe Russell 2000 1 hour On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we are now basically stuck in a range between the 2030 resistance and the 1965 support. The best strategy is generally to sit out and wait for a clear breakout before taking a position. Nonetheless, one can also “play the range” by buying at support and selling at resistance until the breakout. Upcoming Events This week there are many top tier economic indicators. On Tuesday, we will have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Job Openings. On Wednesday, it will be the time for the US ADP. Moving on to Thursday, the market will focus on the US Jobless Claims and the US ISM Services PMI. Finally, we conclude the week with the US NFP report on Friday. https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/russell-2000-technical-analysis-watch-this-level-for-the-next-big-move-20230731/

2023-07-11 03:50

The resistance is temporary, and after some consolidation, we should expect a new test. Market picture The cryptocurrency market lost another 0.5% of its capitalisation overnight, to 1.2 trillion. Most losses came on Wednesday afternoon, while capitalisation has risen since Thursday morning. Since last May, the market has failed to develop growth when it reaches levels above 1.22. The main benchmark and psychological obstacle in this upward march is Bitcoin’s $30K level. It manages to go higher within local impulses for a while, but this only strengthens the local selling. Technically, Bitcoin never managed to break out of the narrow corridor, turning from decline to rise with the start of active trading on Thursday. https://www.forexlive.com/Education/bitcoin-wandering-in-the-range-20230706/

2023-07-11 03:49

Down $0.87 or 1.18% US crude futures settle at $72.99. That's down $0.87 or -1.18%. The high for the day reached $74.15. The low was at $72.67. Looking at the daily chart, the price high did extend above its 100-day moving average at $73.78, but could not sustain momentum. Closing back below the 100 day moving average tilts the blast back to the downside. WTI crude oil settles below its 100 day moving average https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/us-crude-oil-futures-settle-at-7299-20230710/