2024-11-22 23:28
If the Senate confirms Bessent, the next person whose signature is on the front of paper U.S. currency will be a fan of digital assets created to replace the conventional financial system. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump named hedge fund manager Scott Bessent, a cryptocurrency enthusiast, as his pick for Treasury Secretary. If the Senate confirms him, the next person whose signature adorns U.S. paper currency will be a fan of the digital currency ecosystem set up to replace the conventional financial system. Bessent runs Key Square Group, a macro investing firm. He worked for prominent investor George Soros three decades ago and was, according to The Wall Street Journal, "one of the driving forces" behind Soros Fund Management's famous bet — that netted a more than $1 billion profit — that the British pound would collapse. Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto as a whole are now in his sights. "I have been excited about [Trump's] embrace of crypto and I think it fits very well with the Republican Party, the ethos of it. Crypto is about freedom and the crypto economy is here to stay," he said in an interview with Fox Business in July. "Crypto is bringing in young people, people who have not participated in markets." Polymarket traders had bet that he was a frontrunner. At one point, Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick was viewed as one, too, but he was ultimately picked as Commerce Secretary. Lutnick has also dabbled in digital assets, helping stablecoin issuer Tether manage the giant stockpile of U.S. Treasuries that back its USDT stablecoin since 2021. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/11/22/trump-plans-to-name-pro-crypto-hedge-fund-manager-scott-bessent-as-treasury-secretary/
2024-11-22 18:09
Commissioner Jaime Lizárraga, a Democrat, said he'll join Chair Gary Gensler in exiting the U.S. securities regulator, which will leave two Republicans and a single Democrat. The sudden resignation announcement of a second Democrat from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Jaime Lizárraga, could give Republicans a boost as they start work changing the agency's policy direction. Lizárraga's announcement comes a day after Chair Gary Gensler said he'd be leaving the moment President-elect Donald Trump takes the oath on January 20. Another Democratic commissioner on the Securities and Exchange Commission is following Chair Gary Gensler out the door in January, leaving the agency with a Republican majority as it weighs a likely course shift under the new administration of President-elect Donald Trump. Commissioner Jaime Lizárraga is leaving January 17, he said in a Friday statement, which could give Republicans a head start on what could otherwise have been months of delay in redirecting the regulator's policies — including on cryptocurrency. At this point, Caroline Crenshaw will be the sole Democrat on the five-member commission going into 2025, and her term has already expired, putting her into an extension that can last as long as about 18 months. Lizárraga said he's leaving because his wife has been suffering with a serious illness. "In reflecting on the challenges that lie ahead, we have decided that it is in the best interests of our family to close this chapter in my 34-year public service journey," he said in the statement. The commission has been led in recent years by Gensler, who announced this week that he'd be resigning when Trump is sworn in on January 20. Under Gensler's leadership, the commission had maintained an aggressive campaign of enforcement against crypto companies, arguing that digital assets platforms such as Coinbase Inc. (COIN) and Binance are operating as unregistered securities exchanges and that many of the tokens transacted on their platforms are securities. A wide array of enforcement actions have been based on that stance, and they've developed into federal court cases in which the industry has countered the agency's arguments on tokens as securities. That's the situation that will be inherited by the new commission. If Trump appoints one of the sitting Republican commissioners as an acting chair — widely expected to be Mark Uyeda — that new commission chief can begin shifting policy priorities and the agency's legal stance on crypto. With a two-member majority alongside Commissioner Hester Peirce, the two Republicans will be running the agency's agenda while the rest of the commission is filled out by Trump's nominations. Gensler said on Friday that Lizárraga "has been steadfastly focused on elevating the interest of everyday Americans." "At the SEC, he has been an excellent partner in our work to protect investors, facilitate capital formation, and ensure markets work for investors and issuers alike," Gensler said in a statement. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/11/22/another-sec-democrat-to-drop-out-leaving-republicans-running-agency-by-february/
2024-11-22 17:58
DOGE has a history of moving on Musk comments or payments-related developments of his companies. Popular memecoin Dogecoin (DOGE) jumped 5%, returning to multi-year highs hit earlier this month following fresh speculations on Elon Musk-owned social app X's long-anticipated payments service. Apparently triggering the move was Musk posting a screenshot of podcaster Joe Rogan's X profile. The post included a dollar icon that's different from the app's tipping service, one user noted in an X post, speculating that it might be for sending money as part of X Payments. Musk replied "true" to the post. Dogecoin's price has a history of moving on payments-related news — no matter how fanciful — at any Elon Musk-owned companies including X, formerly known as Twitter. Musk long floated his plans to turn the social media site into an "everything-app," encompassing payments between users. X Payments LLC obtained money transmitting licenses in most U.S. states, excluding New York. Some crypto enthusiasts speculate that the service, once live, might include transactions with some digital assets such as DOGE, given Musk's long-standing affection for the token. Musk’s electric car company, Tesla, already accepts DOGE payments for some merchandise purchases in its online store. DOGE advanced 5.4% over the past 24 hours, outperforming flat bitcoin (BTC) prices. The token is up 190% over the past month and trading at its highest level since May 2021. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/22/dogecoin-jumps-on-fresh-x-payments-speculations-after-elon-musk-tweet/
2024-11-22 17:50
Intelligent Alpha’s investment committee is composed of three AIs and the fund's CEO tries to stay out of their way. Intelligent Alpha builds portfolios by relying on AI investment picks. The firm relies on a trio of AIs — ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini — and implements their decisions, even if they sound counter-intuitive. The models have a great track record so far. There’s a $30 million fund that, for all intents and purposes, leaves all investment decisions to be made by artificial intelligence (AI). The firm’s name: Intelligent Alpha. Its staff includes founder and CEO Doug Clinton, a few programmers and contractors, and a trio of AIs — OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini and Anthropic’s Claude. The AI triumvirate makes up the firm’s investment committee and so far, it’s doing a stellar job. “Some of the AI’s best calls have been shorts,” Clinton told CoinDesk in an interview. “It was short on Boeing earlier this year, before that door blew off the 737 MAX [in January]. And AI was actually short on the stock for that reason — because it thought there would be quality issues with the plane.” While the firm has focused on traditional finance so far and mostly kept away from crypto, Clinton said he started experimenting with bitcoin (BTC) specifically in the last five months. The objective: for AI to set useful targets to trade the world’s top cryptocurrency. “In the bull case — which was a Trump win and a more favorable regulatory environment — AI saw that bitcoin could maybe go to $140,000,” Clinton said. “Maybe that's the scenario we're working toward right now.” How it works A lot of firms now use AI to enhance human processes, to help analysts process data and think in different ways. But Clinton’s method is to give responsibility to the AI trio, and stay out of its way as much as possible when it comes to investment decisions. The process is relatively simple. If, for example, Intelligent Alpha is looking to build a large cap U.S. equity portfolio, the fund will curate a bunch of data about U.S. companies with large market capitalizations, like historical revenue and earning projections, and feed it to the AIs. The next step is to give a philosophical framework for the AIs to use. Clinton asks the AIs to step into the shoes of some of the most famous investors in the world — Warren Buffett, Stanley Druckenmiller, Cathie Wood — and apply their way of thinking to the portfolio at hand. The triumvirate then produces a portfolio, which a human must double-check to make sure there aren’t any “hallucinations,” in Clinton’s words. For example, the AI may accidentally include a stock that was recently acquired, or the stock of a company with a small market cap. “Other than that, we try not to really mess with the portfolios,” Clinton told CoinDesk. “As a human, I’ll sometimes look at the portfolios and think ‘Oh, this pick seems like a terrible idea.’ Other times I’ll see something really interesting and try to understand the logic. It’s kind of fun.” The process involves the three AIs explaining their reasoning to Clinton. Not only does it help him ascertain that the investments are aligned with the portfolio’s goals, but he says that models provide better portfolios when they’re forced to explain why they like specific stocks. It often happens for the AIs to disagree. And their way of thinking changes as updates get rolled out. “It used to be the case that Claude was the most contrarian model in terms of the outputs, when we first started testing,” Clinton said. “Now I would say it’s ChatGPT.” And while Clinton has tested other AIs such as Grok or Lama AI, keeping the investment committee down to three AIs has proved to be the most efficient set-up. Predicting the future Investors can gain exposure to Intelligent Alpha’s strategy through an exchange-traded fund, the Intelligent Livermore ETF, which launched in September and uses AI to build a global equity portfolio. More such funds are on the way, Clinton said. For the Livermore ETF, every financial quarter the models review world events and try to make predictions for the next three to six months. Five or six areas of opportunities are then identified (following the investment philosophies of the greats like Druckenmiller) and the portfolio gets built around these sectors. Having competing philosophies means the portfolio usually ends up being quite balanced. “In many cases they're looking at idiosyncratic opportunities,” Clinton said. “We haven't seen big issues where [the investment philosophies] are at odds, but even then, it would be like hedging.” The AIs themselves make the decisions on how to weigh the various philosophies found in the portfolio, depending on the areas they’re the most confident in. “AI has been, at least so far, really good at seeing forward,” Clinton said. “Right before we launched, it made a big bet on Asian stocks, specifically Chinese stocks, and that was right before [billionaire hedge fund manager] David Tepper went on CNBC in September and said that China was his biggest bet, that they were bringing out the bazooka for stimulus. And you know, Chinese stocks went crazy.” Another memorable trade: chipmaker giant Nvidia has been AI’s top pick since the experiment began in summer of 2023. “Back then, I was like, ‘Oh, my God.’ Nvidia had run so much at that point,” Clinton said. “But it's up now like 400% from the moment the AI picked it.” The lesson in there, he says, is humans will react to charts emotionally, whereas AI “just doesn't care. It says ‘No, this is going to go higher.’” Not that every bet has been a slam dunk, but so far, the mistakes have been on the margin, according to Clinton. The AI is building a good track record on macro events especially, he said. For one thing, it predicted that former President Donald Trump would be re-elected. And crypto? One of the reasons Intelligent Alpha doesn’t focus too much on crypto is simply lack of data. Their trades may have happened on-chain, but there’s no easy way to go back and find the kind of trading setups and investment philosophies used by famous crypto investors like Cobie or GCR. Most of the time, all you can do is go off of their posts on X — and it’s hard to know whether the posts reflect reality. That being said, the crypto community’s reliance on X means that Grok could end up playing a role in Intelligent Alpha’s triumvirate someday for crypto purposes, Clinton mused, since that model is trained and fine-tuned with data from the social media platform. “The question that we're exploring here is, what can we do with AI that would maybe be unique and different and stand out a little bit,” Clinton said. “To find a unique way to use AI to identify breakout crypto projects, that would be a really cool way to use the tech.” https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/22/bitcoin-going-to-140k-say-trio-of-ais-managing-30m-investment-fund/
2024-11-22 17:48
Phantom, a crypto wallet with a steeper learning curve, is ahead of exchange giant Coinbase in the Apple App Store rankings. Phantom, a decentralized crypto wallet, has overtaken Coinbase (COIN) in the Apple App Store rankings, reflecting an on-chain shift as traders embrace high-risk memecoins. TikTok videos are teaching people how to navigate wallets that are harder to use than centralized exchanges like Coinbase. "Traditional centralized exchanges can't keep up with all of the new on-chain paradigms fast enough," Phantom CEO Brandon Millman said. It's long been a cryptocurrency maxim that Coinbase's (COIN) ranking in app store downloads signals how much retail traders are participating in a bull market. Well, the bull run's here, and Coinbase isn't climbing charts like it used to. Instead, Phantom, a harder-to-use crypto wallet, has leapfrogged the better-known centralized exchange. At press time, Phantom was in seventh place among free applications — between Temu and Google — on Apple's U.S. App Store, well ahead of Coinbase at 27th. The flip is challenging expectations of what mainstream traders can tolerate during their first days in crypto. While the bitcoin community in particular has always emphasized "being your own bank," other parts of the cryptoverse, like Coinbase, have bet on a more accessible experience. Memecoin mania is blowing that up. Coinbase and other established exchanges don't list the bottom-of-the-barrel, hours-old, exceptionally risky yet sometimes tremendously lucrative (if you don't lose your shirt, as most do) joke tokens that new traders want to bet on. To get those, they gotta go on-chain with something like Phantom. "Traditional centralized exchanges can't keep up with all of the new on-chain paradigms fast enough," said Phantom CEO Brandon Millman in an email. Chill Guy, TikTok In the past week, one memecoin in particular, Chill Guy, caught plenty of attention on TikTok and even more bids on-chain. Bolstered by a coordinated social media marketing campaign, CHILLGUY — whose mascot is, well, a chill-looking dog — soared in days from a market cap of basically nothing to as high as $500 million. Buying CHILLGUY and other fresh memecoins requires a bit more effort than, say, buying bitcoin (BTC) on Coinbase. Traders must navigate decentralized exchanges and learn to futz with finicky order settings just to get the prices they want. It's a clunky setup with a high learning curve compared to the exchanges. Whether TikTok is primarily responsible for driving newcomers on-chain is an open question. The video app's exceptionally niche crypto scene doesn't have any truly standout videos racking up millions of views, as those de rigueur dance routines often do. More common are the oodles of low-viewership crypto bros crowing about their gazillionaire designs. A handful also teach their followers how to download Phantom. Coinbase is onboarding memecoins, to be sure. In the past week, it greenlit FLOKI and PEPE, as well as WIF for German traders. Those tokens have been around a relatively long time and accrued market caps in the billions of dollars, making them more stable (relatively speaking) than, say, DIDDYOIL, a memecoin only accessible to traders who operate on-chain. "Our mission is to increase economic freedom in the world, and we know we can't do it alone," a spokesperson for Coinbase said. "We believe a rising tide raises all boats, and we are thrilled to see more people engaging on-chain and with crypto over the last few weeks." While the Coinbase exchange itself is only tiptoeing into the memecoin space, the company at large is attempting to foster — and capture — such activity with its layer-2 network, Base. Base's memecoin scene isn't at the level of Solana (SOL), but it still sees millions of dollars worth of volume each day. "We're focused on making on-chain faster (transactions anywhere across the globe in seconds), cheaper (with typical Base fees of less than 1 cent) and easier to use, so on-chain technology is accessible to anyone, anywhere in the world," the spokesperson said. "We're looking forward to bringing a billion people on-chain." https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/11/22/coinbase-app-gets-left-behind-as-memecoin-craze-drives-traders-on-chain/
2024-11-22 15:30
Need to explain BTC’s rally and significance for the future? CoinMarketCap’s Jonathan Isaac has some useful talking points. With bitcoin eyeing $100,000 and "Peanut the Squirrel" grabbing headlines with 3,000% gains, crypto is firmly back on the menu this holiday season. Family debates about bitcoin, memecoins and "the dog thing Elon tweets about" will no doubt liven up the dinner table and you, as the designated "crypto expert," will need some talking points to win over the normies. Crypto is libertarian lunacy Trump's candidacy and victory sparked the latest crypto bull run and many now associate it with the worst excesses of MAGA and Elon's D.O.G.E trolling. For your left-leaning relatives, seeing crypto championed so hard by the new Republican administration will do little to help your case. If your true-blue cousin won't buy bitcoin because of its red-and-orange connections, switch to the facts instead. Point out that bitcoin is a currency that can be used by people of all creeds, making it inherently non-political and a movement that can unite us all. Reference Jason Maier's book, "A Progressive's Case for Bitcoin," which unpacks many misconceptions about bitcoin and underscores its origins as a protest against too-big-to-fail banks, its ability to help poor and marginalized communities, and its potential to create a sustainable environment. While policies may drive price action, crypto itself should never be a partisan issue. Crypto is a memecoin casino Somewhere between the deviled eggs and the turkey, the next battle you'll face will be meme coins. With top-performing coins like PEPE, DOGE, and SHIB, and newcomers like PNUT delivering explosive returns, Aunty Cynthia's heard about the meme coin craze and she's got some opinions to share. While POPCAT, BONK and MOODENG capture culture and community in ways that make insiders smile, the flip side is making our industry look a little delulu. When trying to get pension funds and family offices to allocate to crypto, it's hard to argue the virtues of Fartcoin, no matter how many brussel sprouts you've eaten. The memecoin craze is fun but shouldn't overshadow the real power of crypto to bring better, more efficient, more effective financial services to the world. It's simple — for the 1.4 billion people shut out of the traditional financial system, crypto is a better way to store value, access lending and build wealth, empowering them to take control of their financial futures. Also, when it comes down to it, memecoins are an incredibly innovative new form of expression and financial participation that can provide a sense of community and belonging missing from much of the polarizing social discourse on centralized platforms. Cryptos are no different from stocks The launch of bitcoin and ether ETFs this year has some saying that crypto is just another payday for Wall Street suits. While folks like BlackRock's Larry Fink may help onboard more Boomers to crypto, they're missing the point. Cryptocurrencies are the antithesis of stocks and other TradFi assets administered and held by centralized custodians. Digital assets are yours to own. They are decentralized, unseizable, peer-to-peer, require no centralized authority, and often have additional utility beyond a means of exchange and store of value. The decentralized finance (DeFi) sector has opened up myriad opportunities and leveled the playing field for everyday individuals to access sophisticated financial instruments, secure a decent APY, or take out a permissionless loan. No one can take your crypto from you if it's stored correctly under your control, or halt trading to prevent you from claiming your funds. It's entirely different from traditional finance. Crypto is a risky investment Many people who got curious about crypto during the last bull cycle immediately crashed into one of the biggest financial frauds in U.S. history. And those who got tired of waiting for prices to rise sold their assets at a less-than-ideal time. Everyone knows someone's cousin, niece, or nephew who "lost everything in crypto," especially NFTs. But for those who bought and held bitcoin at least, their patience was duly rewarded. BTC has yielded an average of 671% annually since 2013, making it the best-performing asset of our time. Just look at El Salvador's success. President Nayib Bukele's bet on bitcoin in 2021 drew its fair share of criticism but the small Central American country's bitcoin holdings have now soared to over $500 million, yielding more than 100% ROI. Not only that but his approval ratings are hovering around 90% and the homicide rate is now lower than in the U.S. Another small country to make it big on bitcoin is the Kingdom of Bhutan, whose bitcoin holdings now equate to over $1 billion. Does that seem risky to you? Crypto isn't real Of course, no Thanksgiving dinner would be complete without the old adage that crypto isn't real. Some folks just can't get around not being able to put bitcoin in their pocket, arguing that it isn't backed by anything, unlike the dollar which comes with the "full faith and credit" of the U.S. government. Cold hard facts are your friend for this one. Point to the powerful network of miners behind bitcoin, the $3 trillion crypto market cap, the ETF providers, the institutions, politicians and nation-states. Talk about bitcoin's capped supply of 21 million and reinforce that — unlike the dollar which has lost 92% of its purchasing power since 1933 — no more will ever be mined and can never dilute the value of your holdings. Bitcoin's limited supply makes it much more akin to gold as a scarce asset and optimal store of value, compared to the out-of-control money printing machine behind the greenback diluting the value of your savings. Wonder why the cost of everything from ham and eggs to house prices and the turkey on the table have gone up? Inflation is an ongoing tax on the people and bitcoin provides a compelling solution. Or, to put it in words that Uncle Dave would agree with, bitcoin offers a hedge against many of the risks inherent to the traditional fiat financial system. If, after all that, your family remains an immovable object, take heart. It's better to have tried and failed than never to have tried at all. And Grandma asking about crypto again is the clearest top signal you can get. Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates. https://www.coindesk.com/opinion/2024/11/22/how-to-talk-about-crypto-with-your-family-this-thanksgiving/
