2024-11-11 11:16

As bitcoin hits new highs, it's helpful to examine the data to understand where the demand is coming from. Last week, bitcoin rallied 17%, its second-best week of the year. Bitcoin's spot volume on Coinbase soared, nearing the March 2024 high. Exchange balances for the largest cryptocurrency hit a year-to-date low, a sign of increased buying pressure, according to Glassnode data. Donald Trump's U.S. presidential election victory sparked a roaring few days for cryptocurrencies, with bitcoin (BTC) surging to a record and total cryptocurrency market cap eclipsing $2.7 trillion, a high for the year. Bitcoin, at $1.16 trillion, is now the ninth-largest financial asset by market capitalization. The biggest cryptocurrency registered its second-best week of the year, rising 17%. That's just shy of the 22% climb in the week ended March 3, according to Glassnode data. To understand whether the bitcoin could theoretically climb higher or if this marks a local top, it's essential to understand who is buying bitcoin and whether it's a spot or leverage-driven rally. Coinbase spot volume soars First, let's consider the spot cumulative volume delta (CVD), which Glassnode defines as "measuring the net difference between buying and selling trade volumes, specifically highlighting the difference in volume where the buyer or seller was the aggressor. It includes trades where USD or USD-related currencies serve as the quote currency, encompassing both fiat and stablecoins." Most of the spot CVD is coming from Coinbase, a crypto exchange widely used by U.S. investors and institutions, and coincides with a spike in the Coinbase Premium Index. Zooming out over the past three years, it's apparent that when Coinbase CVD spikes, it tends to be near local highs and lows. In March, one of the highest CVD levels occurred as bitcoin broke its then-record high above $73,000. There were also high levels near cycle lows around the Luna and FTX collapse in 2022, which shows smart money buying near the bottom and others buying near the top. Basis trade or true bitcoin buying There's been much deliberation about whether inflows into U.S. listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are spot buying alone or if they're part of a strategy known as the basis trade. The basis trade is a technique for profiting from the discrepancy between spot and futures prices. It involves an investor holding a long position in an ETF while taking a short position in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures market, capturing the price spread. At the start of the year, when the ETFs were introduced, there were huge inflows. Since then, however, bitcoin has mostly held steady, showing that the ETFs didn't affect the price as much as investors thought, largely due to their operating a delta-neutral strategy. Last month, the CEO of crypto index provider CF Benchmarks told CoinDesk that "40% of the ETF inflows were directly down to the basis trade." However, as the ETF inflows continued to set records, open interest in the CME exchange has not followed suit. Bitcoin analyst Checkmate has also observed this trend: "Spot bitcoin ETF inflows have massively outpaced the growth in CME open interest last week. True directional spot buying has returned. Monday likely to see FOMO and momentum buyers as well," they said in a post on X referring to the fear some buyers have of missing out on a rally. Exchange balance hits year-to-date low Glassnode data shows that bitcoin on exchanges has hit a year-to-date low at 2.95 million BTC. Since the Nov. 5 election, there's been a reduction of some 40,000 BTC, and demand appears to come from multiple exchanges such as Coinbase, Binance, and Bitfinex. Lower balances on exchanges indicate that bitcoin owners are looking to buy more bitcoin. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/11/where-the-demand-comes-from-as-bitcoin-breaks-through-82k-van-straten/

2024-11-11 11:14

Nansen aims to pave the way for more efficient decision-making in Bitcoin layer 2s empowered by the insights its data and analytics provide Nansen is to provide analytics to Bitcoin layer-2 Bitlayer, marking its first expansion into this ecosystem. Bitlayer, which raised $11 million in funding led by Franklin Templeton in July, is based on the BitVM computing paradigm, aimed at facilitating Ethereum-style smart contracts on Bitcoin. Blockchain data provider Nansen said it will provide analytics to Bitcoin layer-2 Bitlayer, marking its first expansion into this ecosystem. Nansen, which allows users to see what's happening in blockchain networks in real time, aims to pave the way for more efficient decision-making in Bitcoin layer 2s empowered by the insights its data and analytics provide, according to an emailed announcement on Monday. Bitlayer, which raised $11 million in funding led by Franklin Templeton in July, is based on the BitVM computing paradigm, aimed at facilitating Ethereum-style smart contracts on Bitcoin. Provision for smart contracts, which are a key pillar of networks like Ethereum but have been largely absent on Bitcoin throughout its history, allows a network to support blockchain innovations in decentralized finance (DeFi) or decentralized apps (dApps). BitVM would require a separate auxiliary network atop Bitcoin to handle the volume of transactions, while harnessing the main network's security. Bitcoin accounts for nearly 60% of the total value of the digital asset market, meaning it is comfortably bigger than every other network put together. Thus, the possibility of Ethereum-style decentralized projects on Bitcoin could unleash liquidity value and liquidity that no other ecosystem can currently come close to matching. Bitlayer's mainnet launched in April, since when there has been 280 projects deployed on it with a combined value of nearly $300 million, according to Monday's announcement. Read More: Stacks, Prominent Bitcoin Layer-2 Project, Activates Long-Awaited 'Nakamoto' Upgrade https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2024/11/11/nansen-expands-to-bitcoin-layer-2-will-provide-analytics-for-bitlayer/

2024-11-11 10:12

The suit also links him to organized crime in Eastern Europe and terrorist groups. Compound DAO governance exploiter Humpy the Whale was among the targets of lawsuits brought by FTX’s estate last week. In 2021 and 2022 he allegedly bought massive amounts of illiquid tokens, pumping the price, and then used them to take out loans on the crypto exchange that were not repaid. He denies the charges. His actions, which exploited a flaw in FTX's margin trading rules, led to $1 billion of losses for the exchange and Alameda Research, according to the lawsuit. Among the lawsuits filed last week by the FTX estate is a 32-page document listing eight counts against Humpy the Whale, the crypto trader who earlier this year attracted attention for a governance attack on Compound DAO. Naming him as Nawaaz Mohammad Meerun, a Mauritian citizen, the suit filed in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware alleges that between January 2021 and September 2022, Meerun “orchestrated a series of massive market manipulation schemes and defrauded hundreds of millions of dollars from FTX.” It also claims Meerun had connections to organized crime groups. Meerun dismissed the allegations. “Debtors also have identified extensive ties to Polish, Romanian, and Ukrainian organized crime networks, including groups linked to human trafficking, as well as to Islamic extremist networks linked to terrorist financing,” the filing says. “All told, FTX and Alameda suffered approximately $1 billion in losses due to Meerun’s crimes, and Meerun has used the proceeds of his exploits to fund a wide range of other criminal activity.” Massive amounts of tokens According to the filing, in January 2021, Meerun began accumulating a position in BTMX, an illiquid token, eventually holding around half the supply, and helping drive up the price by over 10,000% in three months. He then allegedly exploited a flaw in FTX's margin trading rules by using his stake as collateral to borrow tens of millions of dollars from the crypto exchange. “Meerun knew that as soon as his manipulation stopped, BTMX’s price would crash and he would be required to return all of his 'borrowed' assets. But Meerun had no intention of complying with FTX’s rules,” the suit states. Following failures on FTX's side, Meerun made off with over $450 million from BTMX, according to the filing. FTX personnel tried to cover it up using the “now-familiar course of action” of shifting the losses to sister company Alameda Research. At the same time, the suit says, Meerun had built a huge short position in MOB, which Alameda also assumed. In an attempt to cover the short position, Alameda purchased significant amounts of the token. “MOB’s price spiked by 750% during the course of Alameda’s weeks-long buying spree, forcing Alameda to pay significantly inflated prices, and then collapsed shortly after Alameda slowed its buying spree. By the time the dust settled on the BTMX/MOB situation in August 2021, Alameda personnel estimated that Alameda had already lost $1 billion as a result of Meerun’s actions,” the suit states. Using new accounts and aliases, in August 2021 Meerun repeated the scheme with illiquid tokens BAO, TOMO and SXP, making off with nearly $200 million before FTX cottoned on, the filing says. An alleged attempt to have another go with a token called KNC was caught while still in progress. The claims are baseless and unsubstantiated, Meerun told CoinDesk in a direct message on X. "I have always operated within the parameters set forth by FTX exchange," Meerun said. "I didn't receive any preferential favor regarding my FTX account. It can be proven that deposits I made to my FTX account largely exceeded all my withdrawals. Thus I encountered losses whilst trading at FTX. "I have no ties to any organized crime networks, I’m not linked and never financed any extremist or terrorist network." Compound DAO In addition to the supposed links to organized crime — which are not detailed — the filing also highlighted how, as “Humpy the Whale”, Meerun executed a “governance attack” on lending platform Compound Finance using its COMP token, which gives holders the right to vote of governance proposals for the decentralized autonomous organization (DAO). “Meerun accumulated significant holdings of the protocol’s governance token and then sought to divert more than $20 million in assets from other protocol users,” the suit says. “Meerun then used his leverage to force a ‘peace treaty’ with Compound in which he received additional payments in exchange for not further seeking to exploit the protocol.” As Humpy, Meerun submitted a DAO proposal to create a new yield-bearing protocol called goldCOMP using the backing of a group of COMP holders known as the Golden Boys. Although they blamed a lack of activity and participation in the DAO for making their actions possible, critics dubbed it a governance attack due to the coordinated efforts between Humpy and the Golden Boys in pushing through the proposal. Concerns were also raised about vote manipulation by the proposers, the centralization of control and potential risks of mismanaging the $24 million COMP treasury funds. Humpy and the collective ultimately agreed to a counter-proposal to create a staking product that distributes 30% of existing and new market reserves annually to staked COMP holders, proportional to their stake controlled by the Compound DAO. Sam Reynolds contributed reporting to this story. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/11/11/humpy-the-whale-cost-ftx-alameda-1-billion-in-losses-lawsuit-alleges/

2024-11-11 07:15

Chart studies reveal that BTC's price rally appears overstretched and could be primed for a classic "bull market pullback." BTC's price rally looks overstretched according to the spread between prices and the 200-hour SMA. The RSI has diverged bearishly suggesting the upward momentum has exhausted for now. The broader outlook remains constructive. Bullish but overstretched. That's how bitcoin (BTC) looks on short duration technical charts after Monday's breakout above $80,000. The leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization soared to nearly $81,800 during the Asian trading hours on Monday, marking a 15% monthly gain, the highest since March, according to CoinDesk data. Since the recent U.S. elections, bitcoin has demonstrated a textbook ascent, with consistent upswings followed by consolidations, setting the stage for the next leg higher. But now above $80,000, the rally looks overstretched, as the spread between bitcoin's price and its 200-hour simple moving average has widened to its highest level since early March, when prices suddenly corrected lower by 11% to $60,000. In technical analysis, a significant gap between the price and the moving average typically indicates that the market has moved too quickly, prompting traders to reassess their positions and possibly take profits. Further, the 14-hour relative strength index (RSI), a momentum oscillator used to confirm price movements, has shown bearish divergence, creating a lower high that contradicts BTC's new high above $80,000 This bearish divergence suggests that the bullish momentum may have been exhausted for the time being, raising the possibility of an impending pullback. If prices rollover, the first key piece of support would be the 50-hour SMA at $78,400. Acceptance below the average could open doors to a deeper decline to $75,000. Note that corrections are a part of a bull market and a potential price decline could recharge bulls' engines for a more long lasting rise to $90,000 and higher. In other words, the broader outlook remains bullish, with possible resistance at $90,000. Omkar Godbole, a chartered market technician, is a CoinDesk senior analyst and co-managing editor for markets. The views expressed here are his own. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/11/bitcoins-80k-rally-is-bullish-but-slightly-overstretched-as-pullback-risks-still-linger-godbole/

2024-11-11 06:48

Trustees transferred over 30,000 BTC from “1FG2C…Rveoy” to “1Fhod…LFRT,” a new wallet, and $200 million to a Mt. Gox cold wallet. The defunct exchange moved over 30,000 BTC to the wallet, which was the largest receiver in the last series of transfers. Such transfers usually imply that an exchange is gearing up to sell tokens on the open market. Defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox moved $2.4 billion in bitcoin (BTC) to two wallets on Monday, Arkham data shows. The move comes as the largest cryptocurrency keeps breaking new grounds, crossing $81,000 over the weekend. Trustees transferred over 30,000 BTC from “1FG2C…Rveoy” to “1Fhod…LFRT,” a new wallet, and $200 million to a Mt. Gox cold wallet. “1FG2C…Rveoy” was the largest receiver of BTC in a Mt. Gox wallet movement last week, as reported. Such wallet transfers are usually a consolidation of holdings to new addresses before they are sent to crypto exchanges, where the bitcoin is sold on the open market. Mt. Gox was once the world’s top crypto exchange, handling over 70% of all bitcoin transactions in its early years. In early 2014, hackers attacked the exchange, losing an estimated 740,000 bitcoin (more than $15 billion at current prices). The hack was the biggest of the many attacks on the exchange in the years 2010-13. Trustees have put together a repayment plan that has a deadline of October 31, 2025, per the latest filings. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/11/mt-gox-shuffles-24b-bitcoin-between-wallets-as-btc-hovers-near-82k-arkham/

2024-11-11 04:17

The broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a liquid index tracking the largest tokens by market capitalization, rose 4.5% in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin surpassed the $81,000 mark, driven by a continuous rally, high trading volumes over the weekend, and bullish futures market activity, with traders betting on further increases. Dogecoin and Shiba Inu led the gains among major cryptocurrencies, with dog-themed tokens adding 30% over the past 24 hours. Market moves follow Donald Trump’s presidential win and anticipation around a strategic bitcoin reserve as per a July campaign promise. Bitcoin (BTC) zoomed above $81,000 late Sunday as a record-setting rally continued into its sixth day, boosting growth across all major and midcap tokens. BTC added 5.6% in the past 24 hours, data shows, with trading volumes of nearly $100 billion over an unusually wild weekend session. Weekend pumps are generally considered bullish in the crypto market, as trading volumes typically decrease over the weekend when many institutional investors and professional traders are less active. Futures premiums on BTC-tracked products are soaring, indicating a bias for bullish bets. The popularity of the $80,000 call on Deribit points to potential dealer hedging around the key level. Dogecoin (DOGE) and shiba inu (SHIB) led gains among majors with a price jump of as much as 30%, with DOGE flipping xrp (XRP) and stablecoin USDC late Sunday to become the sixth-largest token. DOGE has jumped on renewed endorsements by technology entrepreneur Elon Musk, pushing it 88% in the past 30 days. Other majors took a breather following a Friday rally. Ether (ETH), BNB Chain’s BNB and XRP added under 4%, while Cardano’s ADA saw profit-taking after a 35% move higher on Sunday. The broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a liquid index tracking the largest tokens by market capitalization, rose 4.5% in the past 24 hours. Dog-themed memecoins led gains outside of majors with an average jump of 30%, CoinGecko data shows, followed by Solana-based memes and TokenFi launchpad tokens. The weekend price action came on the back of a week that saw crypto-friendly Republican Donald Trump elected as U.S. president and a fresh round of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. recorded over $1.3 billion in net inflows on Thursday, breaking a March record of $1.1 billion, led by BlackRock’s IBIT. Traders are eyeing the $100,000 price level for BTC in the short term, as reported, in hopes that Trump will eventually launch a strategic bitcoin reserve after he takes office in January, as per a campaign promise he made in July. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/11/bitcoin-nears-82k-in-bullish-start-to-week-dogecoin-flips-usdc/