2024-11-06 07:15

Even before Donald Trump secured the U.S. presidency, the industry had already scored huge, getting many new allies in Congress and a serious Senate hurdle removed. The crypto sector's need for a friendly U.S. president became less urgent on election night as the Senate shifted toward the Republicans who've promised digital assets legislation. One of the U.S. lawmakers who stood in the path of crypto legislation, Senator Sherrod Brown, the chair of the Senate Banking Committee, was voted out — thanks in part to the tens of millions that crypto interests spent in his state. Having $169 million to spend on U.S. congressional elections can produce fast results in Washington, as the crypto sector's campaign-finance blitz this year helped rid it of a powerful Democratic senator who stood in the way of legislation and also populated Congress with a large number of new friends. With former President Donald Trump securing enough electoral votes to return to the White House, the industry could also — for the first time — have an outspoken ally in the presidency. A commander-in-chief who calls himself the "crypto president" and promised to remove SEC Chair Gary Gensler would likely be a boon for the industry, but the gains made earlier in the election had already positioned digital assets with unprecedented advantage. With the aid of tens of millions the industry spent in Ohio through its Fairshake political action committee, Sherrod Brown's long Senate career is over and a blockchain businessman, Bernie Moreno, will take his place. The loss of Brown, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, also contributed to the Republicans seizing the Senate majority, meaning Brown's committee will have a new GOP chairman who will likely welcome crypto legislation rather than leave it in limbo, as Brown had. The Senate has been the primary roadblock to legislative progress for crypto measures, such as Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) that passed the House earlier this year, or the long-awaited stablecoin bill that also cleared the House. "Sherrod Brown was a top opponent of cryptocurrency and thanks to our efforts, he will be leaving the Senate," according to a statement from Defend American Jobs, the Fairshake affiliate that concentrated on supporting Republican candidates or opposing anti-crypto Democrats. Moreno, the statement said, "prioritizes innovation, protects American economic interests and will ensure our nationals continued technological leadership." Congress is now much more likely to be working on legislation in the next session that will overpower the views of officials at the Securities and Exchange Commission or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. If such legislation becomes law, the SEC and CFTC will have to execute it and adopt whatever means it uses to define a crypto security — the question still at the heart of U.S. oversight. Paul Grewal, the chief legal officer of Coinbase Inc. (COIN), took a moment to post on X during election night to say he hopes the SEC understood the message from voters. "On many, many issues, the voters said loud and clear that they want change," Grewal wrote. "Crypto is no exception. Stop suing crypto. Start talking to crypto. Initiate rulemaking now. There's no reason to wait." But the crypto industry's new progress doesn't end there. The Fairshake spending — totaling about $130 million in this cycle — helped shepherd a large number of new faces toward Congress on election night. The super PAC's track record was flawless as the counting continued past midnight, with more than 30 of its 58 favored candidates winning their races and none of them losing. Though the industry leaders that primarily funded the PAC — Coinbase, Ripple and a16z — kept the PAC's origins and management opaque, the group's strategy was clear. Fairshake and its two affiliate PACs weren't concerned with candidates' other politics as long as they'd support crypto-friendly legislation. And the PACs didn't pretend to be doing anything other than whatever it took to get their picks elected, which meant the crypto groups rarely mentioned crypto at all in the colossal advertising purchases they made, and they weren't shy about dumping overwhelming amounts of cash into each chosen race. The result — which had been previewed by the crypto PACs' predecessor GMI in the 2022 races — was a significant number of candidates winning primaries in districts purposefully chosen because the primary winner's party would be likely to win in the general election. That's why Fairshake's picks performed so well on election night. The industry's campaign financing also went to current lawmakers that had been working on the industry's behalf already, such as Majority Whip Tom Emmer, a Minnesota Republican, and Ritchie Torres, a New York Democrat. In the early hours of Wednesday, former President Trump nailed 277 electoral college votes, more than the 270 needed for a return to the White House. The Republican has promised sudden and dramatic help for crypto, including the intention to replace Gensler as SEC chair. Gensler has earned the ire of the crypto industry for a policy of "regulation by enforcement" and his antagonism toward participants. In the absence of clear legislation covering digital assets, the SEC has sued many crypto companies, including crypto exchanges Coinbase (COIN), Kraken and Binance. Only last week, the regulator sent gaming company Immutable a Wells Notice, a notification that the regulator is planning a lawsuit against it. Still, the White House fight had already become less urgent for crypto. Whatever happens, the Senate will be controlled next year by the party that has crypto support in its platform. And with at least two dozen freshman, crypto-friendly representatives starting their careers in the House of Representatives in January, the number of members who support digital assets on Capitol Hill is swelling considerably. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/11/06/crypto-already-won-election-as-trump-rises-and-senates-sherrod-brown-falls/

2024-11-06 05:33

Trump has vowed to impose sweeping tariffs on Mexico and other trading partners. BTC/MXN soars on Trump win possibility. Trump has said he would impose tariffs on Mexico of up to 100%. Gold trades flat as DXY and yields rise. The "Trump trade," which comprises of bullish bets in bitcoin (BTC), the dollar index, and bets on higher Treasury yields and lower Mexican peso, is in full swing as the Republican candidate takes a notable lead over Kamala Harris in the presidential race. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, surged over 7% during Wednesday's Asian trading hours, setting record highs above $74,000. The cryptocurrency saw bigger gains in Mexican peso (MXN) terms as the Latin American currency, expected to be hardest hit by Trump's tariffs plans, fell 3% against the USD to 20.7080, reaching the lowest since August 2022. As of writing, the BTC/MXN pair on Binance traded nearly 10% higher at 1.548 million, according to data source TradingView. The MXN has declined by 27% since March, with most losses stemming from fears that a potential Trump administration would resort to protectionist policies. Early this week, Trump reiterated his intention to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, one of the U.S.' largest trading partners last year, while warning of a hike to 100% if the country fails to close its border. "If they don’t stop this onslaught of criminals and drugs coming into our country, I am going to immediately impose a 25 percent tariff on everything they send into the United States of America,” Trump said, according to Washington Post. “If that doesn’t work, I’ll make it 50, and if that doesn’t work, I’ll make it 75,” he said. “Then I’ll make it 100," Trump added. Trump has also vowed to renegotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), due for review on July 1, 2026. At press time, Associated Press showed Trump leading the electoral map 230 to Kamala Harris' 210. "Mexican Peso is weakening substantially, even before we know what will eventually happen tonight. An indication that we may see very big moves in the event of a Trump win..," Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said on X. Gold flat, DXY soars Gold, rising a recent wave of gains, traded largely unchanged at nearly $2,740 per ounce despite fears that Trump's tariff plan could lead to higher inflation. The upside in the yellow metal was likely capped by gains in the dollar index, which topped 105.00 for the first time since July 9. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped over 20 basis points to 4.46%, denting the appeal of the zero-yielding safe-haven metal. The uptick in the bond could be attributed to fears that Trump tariffs could complicate the Fed's plans to cut borrowing costs. Tariffs are known to create a ripple effect throughout the global economy by increasing the cost of goods, disrupting international trade, and reducing competition, all of which add to inflationary pressures. That said, both bitcoin and gold are said to be on a long-term bullish trajectory, courtesy of the ballooning U.S. fiscal debt. Gold has surged 32% this year, outshining the S&P 500's 21% gain by a big margin. Bitcoin, often touted as digital gold, has risen 75%. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/06/bitcoin-rises-nearly-10-against-mexican-peso-as-trump-trade-soars-gold-stays-flat/

2024-11-06 03:09

Part of BTC’s spike could be attributed to a $94 million liquidation of bearish or hedged bets against the asset, Coinglass data shows, as Trump leads in early voting. Bitcoin jumped to a new all-time high just above $75,000 on crypto exchanges Binance, Coinbase and others in Asian morning hours Wednesday as favorable election results for crypto-friendly Republican Donald Trump began to roll in. BTC was up 7.5% in the past 24 hours, rising sharply in the last two hours alongside Trump’s odds on betting marketplace Polymarket, where punters now give him an 85% chance of winning the U.S. presidency. Traders largely view a Trump win as bullish for the industry compared to Democrat Kamala Harris, who isn’t perceived as overly crypto-friendly. Part of BTC’s spike could be attributed to a $94 million liquidation of bearish or hedged bets against the asset, Coinglass data shows. In addition, BTC is now trading at a notable premium on crypto exchange Coinbase, indicating renewed stateside demand. DOGE, meanwhile, has been up nearly 20% since Tuesday, extending 30-day gains to over 65%, making it the best-performing major token. Futures tracking DOGE recorded over $30 million in short liquidations over the past 24 hours, an unusually high figure, suggesting part of its move was driven by covering losing bets. Open interest, or the number of unsettled futures bets, on DOGE is up to 8.30 billion tokens as of Wednesday compared to 7 billion tokens on Monday — showing brisk demand and expectations of further market movements. DOGE has generally risen after a renewed endorsement by technology entrepreneur Elon Musk as part of the Republican campaign. Musk has been proposing a Department of Government Efficiency — abbreviated as D.O.G.E; a clear nod to the token — as an agency that will make government spending and monetary planning more effective. A parody D.O.G.E token on Ethereum is up 77% in the past 24 hours, and is up 500% since a CoinDesk analysis first flagged demand for the memecoin among some traders. Bullish sentiment for DOGE is showing signs of spilling over to dog-themed tokens, with shiba inu (SHIB), floki (FLOKI) and bonk (BONK) up over 10%. Sector tokens have gained 16% on average, beating a 7.2% rise in the broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20) majors index. Early trends by the Associated Press showed Trump winning Kentucky, Florida, West Virginia, and another four electoral college votes, outpacing his rival Kamala Harris. At press time, Trump leads the electoral map 198 to 99, according to the Associated Press. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/06/bitcoin-hits-new-record-above-738k-doge-surges-17-as-trump-polymarket-odds-shoot-to-80/

2024-11-06 02:03

Associated Press has Trump leading the electoral map 101 to 71. BTC trades at a notable premium on Coinbase, indicating renewed stateside demand for the cryptocurrency. Associated Press has Trump leading the electoral map 101 to 71. Bitcoin's "Coinbase premium," a key metric gauging stateside demand for the leading cryptocurrency, is flashing green again amid reports of an early lead for pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump in the U.S. election. The "Coinbase Premium Index" measures the price difference for bitcoin on Coinbase, which is widely used by U.S. users and many institutional market participants, compared to the off-shore exchange Binance, the leading exchange by trading volume. The price differential turned positive during Wednesday's early Asian hours and jumped to 0.06, the highest since Sept. 14, according to data tracked by analytics firm CryptoQuant. Price rallies are said to be more sustainable when the cryptocurrency trades at a premium on Coinbase, reflecting stronger buying pressure from sophisticated traders and stateside institutions. Bitcoin rose over 7% in Asia, topping the $74,000 mark for the first time as early trends by the Associated Press showed Trump winning Kentucky, Florida, West Virginia, and another four electoral college votes, outpacing his rival Kamala Harris. At press time, Trump leads the electoral map 101 to 71, according to the Associated Press. On decentralized predictions platform Polymarket, traders now see a 75% chance of Trump winning the presidential election. In traditional markets, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback's value against major fiat currencies, jumped 1.3% to 104.80, reaching the highest since July 30, according to data source TradingView. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note jumped 16 basis points to 4.44%. The dollar rally likely stems from Trump's plans to impose tariffs across the board, with a 60% duty on imports from China. "If Trump wins and puts a 60% tariff on China, we'll see a rise in the Dollar unlike anything in the past. China has only one option in response to tariffs: allow the RMB to fall hard and fast. That will pull down all of EM, which is collateral damage in the U.S.-China trade war," Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said on X. Bitcoin has historically moved in the opposite direction of the dollar. The negative correlation, however, is being tested as a potential inflationary impact of trade tariffs could boost demand for perceived store-of-value assets like bitcoin and gold. 3:06 UTC: Adds commentary on traditional markets. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/06/bitcoins-coinbase-premium-jumps-to-two-month-high-as-prices-top-71k-amid-trumps-early-lead/

2024-11-05 22:11

The worst case scenario for risk assets including cryptocurrencies would be a delayed or contested election where the result is unknown for weeks, one observer noted. A cryptocurrency rally saw a rapid reversal during the U.S. afternoon hours as the final stretch of the U.S. election left traders jittery. Bitcoin (BTC) surged to $70,500 earlier during the day from around $67,000, then shed 2% in an hour to briefly drop below $69,000. It was trading at $69,000 at press time, still up more than 2% over the past 24 hours.. The broad-market CoinDesk 20 Index booked 3% gain during the same period, led by native tokens of Near (NEAR), Aptos (APT) and Hedera (HBAR) advancing 6%-7%. Ether (ETH) continued its streak of dismal performance relative to bitcoin, with the ETH/BTC ratio dropping below 0.035 for the first time since April 2021. ETH lagged with its 0.4% daily gain, while litecoin (LTC) was also flat. The abrupt selloff happened as Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), the company behind Truth Social social-media platform founded by Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, plummeted 20% and was briefly halted from trading Tuesday afternoon. There wasn't any immediately clear catalyst of the price drop, as odds for Trump winning the election dipped only slightly to 61% from 62% on blockchain-based prediction venue Polymarket. Traders perhaps took profits after DJT share prices earlier today spiked 18% from yesterday's closing price, and are still up 178% from the September lows. Zooming out, bitcoin is still trading within a narrow range below its all-time record heading into the U.S. election night, which is viewed as a key source of uncertainty for crypto prices. "We expect spot [prices] to chop around this range until we get more clarity on the election results this week, where a Trump win is likely to cause a knee-jerk reaction higher, and vice versa if Kamala wins," digital asset hedge fund QCP forecasted in a Monday market update. The worst case scenario for risk assets including cryptocurrencies would be "a delayed or contested election – much like in the 2000 election – where the result is unknown for weeks," said Bohan Jiang, head of OTC options trading at Abra. "This would lead to a sell-off in risk assets in the meantime, wherein the event volatility would roll to subsequent weeks until we get a resolution." https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/05/bitcoin-gives-up-gains-as-us-election-anxiety-unleashes-crypto-volatility/

2024-11-05 21:34

Solana has a reputation as a memecoin hub, but financial institutions are looking to build on the network. Solana has garnered notoriety for its meme coin connection. But financial institutions are also interested in using the network to build their products. While Solana is newer than Ethereum, it doesn’t face the same challenges when it comes to transaction throughput and cheap fees. It would be easy for a casual observer to think that the Solana network is for memecoins and Ethereum for financial institutions. While BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has preached the gospel of tokenization on Ethereum — his firm even launching a tokenized fund, BUIDL, on that blockchain — Solana has often made headlines this year thanks to the success of pump.fun, a protocol that allows users to create memecoins in minutes. That, however, doesn’t mean Ethereum has a monopoly on institutional interest, according to Hadley Stern, chief commercial officer at Marinade Finance, a Solana-based DeFi protocol that provides staking services for that blockchain's (SOL) token. “On the institutional side, it's so early,” Stern, who was the founding president of Fidelity Digital Assets and global head of digital asset custody at BNY Mellon, told CoinDesk in an interview. “We could probably count on one hand the amount of TradFi products that are being built or have been built on Ethereum and Solana.” “I was brought on [Marinade] because there’s a lot of product discovery around strong interest from institutions,” Stern said. “Asset managers, high net worth holders, individual holders, hedge funds … are interested in [staking on Solana].” Launched in March 2020, Solana and SOL exploded on the crypto scene during the 2021 bull market partially thanks to support from FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried. SOL cratered when FTX collapsed, but staged a comeback in 2023 and, at $79 billion, is now the fifth largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Stern’s assessment comes as financial giants such as Franklin Templeton, Citibank and Société Générale all announced new Solana-based projects last September during Breakpoint, the network’s biggest yearly conference. And he wasn’t the only one electrified by such institutional enthusiasm. “At Breakpoint, it was eye-opening to see how many people are now building on Solana,” Tristan Frizza, founder of Solana-based decentralized derivatives exchange Zeta Markets, told CoinDesk in an interview. “Institutions are doing pretty crazy stuff.” Solana vs Ethereum At first view, building on Ethereum can seem like a no-brainer for financial institutions. After all, it’s the oldest and largest smart contract blockchain, it has the largest number of developers in the crypto ecosystem, it settles the majority of stablecoin transactions and it’s the birthplace of DeFi. “If you work at a large bank and you're trying to tokenize an asset, you're not going to get fired for putting it on Ethereum,” Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently told CoinDesk. But Ethereum isn’t risk-free, according to Leah Wald, CEO of Sol Strategies, a crypto holding company that also runs a large Solana validator. “The uncertainty that continues around transaction fees certainly doesn't make anyone comfortable,” Wald told CoinDesk in an interview. “If you're going to be if you're an institution, and you're thinking 10 years out, you can't be building on a blockchain that you're concerned about.” “BlackRock’s BUIDL is based on Ethereum, and for what they're trying to build, I think that's perfectly fine,” Wald added, but any kind of projects with high-volume transactions, like real-time payments or trading, might struggle. “If we’re talking about a more sophisticated on-chain fund, or a financial platform, then there's a real opportunity for Solana.” In other words, nothing currently guarantees that Ethereum’s scalability strategy, which hinges on layer 2 blockchains, will pay off, and the transformations the network has undergone in the last few years — like its monetary policy change, or its transition from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake — show that Ethereum is still figuring itself out. Solana’s cheap transactions and low throughput, by contrast, don’t hinge on the accomplishment of a complex and technical roadmap. And that can make all the difference. Wald noted, however, that in the U.S., Ethereum benefits from more regulatory clarity than Solana. The fact that the Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot ether exchange-traded funds this summer is likely a reassurance for institutions, even as inflows into those new funds have been disappointing. A spot SOL ETF might be years away, depending on the outcome of today's presidential election. A different mindset Another point where Solana tends to be underestimated, Frizza said, is in terms of technical innovations. While Ethereum is famous for its army of developers, builders on Solana tend to fly under the radar, even when they come up with new tools and products that can have an impact on crypto ecosystems beyond their own. “People underrate what Solana enables from a structural perspective — and also the mindset that Solana builders have,” Frizza said. “They really care about users, the product, building things that scale and that address user needs.” To Frizza, that attitude means that, if another crypto mania occurs again, fascinating apps will come to light on Solana. Speaking of Zeta Markets, he said one priority was to “bring down UX barriers and make it feel as easy as trading on Robinhood. That's when you can really start opening up the funnel and bringing a lot of people in.” Stern concurred. Memecoins aren’t an innovation in themselves, he said, but the fact they were able to flourish on Solana in a way they couldn’t on any other platform is a symptom of developers working at the highest level: pump.fun is simply taking advantage of a technical breakthrough. “Ethereum has a very hands-off relationship with an open source viewpoint, whereas I think the Solana Foundation does a better job from a business development standpoint,” Stern said. “Sort of guiding the ship, but not in a completely controlling way, and letting a thousand flowers bloom.” https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/05/its-so-early-how-solana-is-competing-with-ethereum-for-institutional-interest/