2024-11-05 21:00

Up-to-the-minute coverage on the presidential and congressional races and how they stand to shape crypto legislation and regulation. SR (5:44 a.m. ET) Donald Trump won Wisconsin, gaining 10 electoral college votes to secure 277, more than the 270 needed to win the presidency, according to AP's real-time tracker. ND (3:30 a.m. ET) Representatives Bill Huizenga, a Michigan Republican, and Shri Thanedar, a Michigan Democrat, have won their races, the AP projected. As of press time it was still unclear which party may win the House of Representatives, and while Trump's victory has not yet been confirmed, he is a mere three electoral college votes away from securing his second term as president. AP's real-time tracker showed that Trump still holds a roughly 5 million popular vote lead, and held leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, Alaska, Arizona and Nevada. Just one of these states would confirm him to another term. ND (2:50 a.m. ET) "We're going to make our country better than it's ever been," Donald Trump said in a rambling victory speech that saw Elon Musk, Dana White and J.D. Vance briefly speak. Trump held a 5 million vote lead in the popular vote, in addition to his likely electoral college win. ND (2:28 a.m. ET) The AP is also projecting that Donald Trump won Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral college votes, as well as Maine's second district and its single electoral college vote. The former president is now just three electoral college votes away from securing a second term running the U.S. ND (1:30 a.m. ET) Decision Desk HQ is projecting that Donald Trump has won Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral college votes. He is also expected to win Alaska (three electoral college votes) and Maine's second district (one electoral college vote), potentially confirming him to a second term as president of the U.S. The AP has not yet called Pennsylvania, and shows that Trump has a roughly 225,000-vote lead in the state with 92% of votes counted as of press time. ND (1:15 a.m. ET) Another swath of Fairshake-backed candidates have won their reelection bids, including New Jersey Democrat Josh Gottheimer, Texas Republican Monica De La Cruz, Texas Democrat Julie Johnson, Iowa Republican Zach Nunn, New York Democrat Thomas Suozzi, Wisconsin Republican Bryan Steil, Nebraska Republican Mike Flood and Montana Republican Troy Downing, per the AP. There is still no AP call for Senate candidates Elissa Slotkin (Michigan) or Ruben Gallego (Arizona), both Democrats backed by Fairshake. As of press time, Republicans hold 184 seats in the House, while Democrats hold 159. Decision Desk HQ projected that Democrats would flip the House, similarly to how Republicans flipped the Senate. In the presidential contest, Donald Trump holds 247 electoral college votes, winning Georgia and Nebraska's first district. Kamala Harris holds 214 electoral college votes, winning New Hampshire. ND (12:18 a.m. ET) The Republican Party has retaken the U.S. Senate after flipping a handful of seats in the evenly held body, raising hopes for comprehensive crypto legislation in the next Congress. The Senate was composed of 50 Republicans, 47 Democrats and three independents during the last legislative term, though the independents caucused with the Democratic Party. Because the Democrats also controlled the White House during that time, they held the majority, with Vice President Kamala Harris acting as the tie-breaker on evenly split votes. Republicans were expected to flip the Senate during 2024's election, with a number of seats – including Montana and Ohio – predicted to turn red. Ohio, where Democrat Sherrod Brown lost his seat, and West Virginia, where Joe Manchin, an Independent who caucused with Democrats, retired. With the Republican win, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is likely to become the chair of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Development, letting him steer the agenda for at least some crypto legislation. During a panel talk in August, he floated the idea of a subcommittee focused on digital assets. Democrats will need to choose a new leader for the committee after current chair Brown lost his reelection fight against challenger (and crypto fan) Bernie Moreno. ND (12:10 a.m. ET) Democrat Adam Schiff will be the next Senator from California, AP projected earlier Tuesday night. Republicans have 50 Senate seats as of press time, with Wyoming's John Barrasso keeping his seat. While the AP has not yet called Montana or Nebraska's Senate races, it's projecting a narrow Republican win in Nebraska for Debra Fischer, and Republican Tim Sheehy leads against incumbent Democrat Jon Tester in Montana. If either one of these races is called with its current project, Republicans will have an outright majority and flip the Senate. As of press time, Donald Trump still leads in the electoral college with 230 votes. Kamala Harris has narrowed the lead somewhat, and now has 210 electoral college votes, after winning Colorado and New Mexico. Nebraska's second district is also being called for Harris, as is Hawaii. Maine's split electoral college votes have yet to be called by AP, and Nevada has not yet begun reporting. The first candidate to reach 270 electoral college votes will win the presidency. JH (12:10 a.m. ET) As Election Day has turned into tomorrow, a couple more races went to crypto-backed future members of Congress. At last count, 31 of the Fairshake 58 had won their contests. The latest included Bob Onder, a Missouri Republican, Shomari Figures, a Democrat from Alabama and Representative Angie Craig, a Democrat from Minnesota. Tom Emmer, the Minnesota Republican who served as the House Majority Whip for the last two years, also easily won reelection. But several of the remaining races are close, leaving them more difficult for the Associated Press to declare a winner. Democrat Brad Sherman, a vocal crypto skeptic, similarly won his reelection bid to represent California for another two years. MH (11:45 p.m. ET): Polymarket now has 91% odds of Trump winning the popular vote, 95% of winning the election. Bitcoin is up 9% on a 24-hour basis to $74,651.88 after reaching a 24-hour (and all-time) high of $74,977.44. ND (11:29 p.m. ET) Republican Bernie Moreno, a staunch crypto supporter and former blockchain entrepreneur, unseated Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, bringing the GOP just one seat away from flipping the U.S. Senate, AP projected Tuesday night. Brown has run the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Development for the last four years, and while he's held a number of hearings on crypto and crypto-adjacent issues, the lawmaker has not moved any legislation addressing the sector. He faced heavy opposition from the crypto industry, with the Fairshake super political action committee pouring $40 million into unseating him and supporting Moreno. With his loss, Democrats will need to choose a new leader for their caucus on the committee. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), perhaps the archetype crypto skeptic in the Senate, has the seniority to take Brown's spot. In the presidential race, AP projects Donald Trump will win at least 230 electoral college votes, while Kamala Harris will win at least 187. Trump added Idaho and North Carolina to his running total, while Harris won Oregon, Washington and California, as well as Maine's first district. Maine's second district (one electoral college vote) and stateside vote (two electoral college votes), as well as Nebraska's first and second districts (one electoral college vote each) have not yet been called. JH (11:22 p.m. ET) Of the 58 candidates backed by the industry's Fairshake PAC, the 24 contests that the Associated Press has called are all in the win column. That's – so far – 12 Democrats and 12 Republicans. The latest names heading to or returning to the House of Representatives include five Democrats from New York: Timothy Kennedy, George Latimer and incumbents Daniel Goldman, Ritchie Torres and Ryan Patrick. Also in the Democrat column are Brittany Pettersen of Colorado, Johnny Olszewski of Maryland, Suhas Subramanyam of Virginia and Yassamin Ansari of Arizona, who'd won her primary contest by 39 votes after $1.4 million in crypto industry support. The latest Republicans to win were Tim Moore of North Carolina and incumbent Representative Dusty Johnson of South Dakota. ND (10:45 p.m. ET) Utah has voted in John Curtis for Senate, AP projected. Curtis, a Republican Congressman who ran against Democrat Caroline Gleich, received around $2 million in support from Defend American Jobs, a political action committee affiliated with the Fairshake super PAC. As a congressman, Curtis voted in favor of the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act, as well as a resolution that would overturn the Securities and Exchange Commission's Staff Accounting Bulletin 121. Rep. French Hill, a Republican on the House Financial Services Committee and the chair of its digital assets subcommittee, won reelection as well, per AP. MH (10:15 p.m.) Prediction markets have flipped on the popular vote, with both crypto-based offshore platform Polymarket and regulated U.S. exchange Kalshi now calling it for Trump, at odds of 68% and 60% respectively. ND (10:15 p.m.) Texas Senator Ted Cruz is projected to win reelection, leaving Republicans just three seats away from taking the majority in the Senate. Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown remains in a tight race against Republican Bernie Moreno, while results in Montana, where incumbent Democrat Jon Tester faces longshot odds to keep his seat, have only just begun trickling in. MH (10:10 p.m. ET) Bitcoin is up 8% on a 24-hour basis at $73,415.45 according to CoinDesk data and nearing its previous all-time high just shy of $73,8000, likely reflecting enthusiasm over positive early returns for Trump. Other data sources have BTC already past ATH. JH (10:00 p.m. ET) The Fairshake 58, as predicted, are so far blazing their way into Congress with no losses yet among the races called by the Associated Press. The House of Representatives will get a lot of new names who received heavy crypto backing, plus the return of several incumbents with records of industry support, such as Representative William Timmons. The South Carolina Republican is a member of the House Financial Services Committee, the committee that's made the most progress in crypto legislation, and has authored a bill himself. Other newly minted House members will be Wesley Bell, a Missouri Democrat, and Sarah McBridge, a Delaware Democrat. This marks the first dozen wins for Fairshake. ND (10:00 p.m. ET) Utah and Montana are expected to support Donald Trump, the AP reported. CL (9:40 p.m. ET) Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has been re-elected in New York. Gillibrand, along with Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) (who is not running for reelection in 2024) introduced a bipartisan stablecoin bill earlier this year and has been a strong supporter of the crypto industry. ND (9:15 p.m.) The AP called Ohio and Texas for Donald Trump, growing his electoral college lead to 177 votes, versus Kamala Harris' 99. The Ohio Senate race between Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Bernie Moreno appears to be too close to call, and has been see-sawing between the two candidates all night. Roughly 51% of votes have been counted, with Moreno seeing a slight lead as of press time, AP said. JH (9:05 p.m. ET) The wins keep coming in the Fairshake 58, with nine victories so far called by the Associated Press, including the first Democrat: Rob Menendez Jr. from New Jersey, the son of Senator Bob Menendez. The latest wins among Fairshake-backed Republicans include Riley Moore of West Virginia, Craig Goldman of Texas and Tom Cole of Oklahoma. ND (9:05 p.m. ET) The AP has called Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, two of Nebraska's districts and Louisiana for Donald Trump, bringing him to 120 electoral college votes. Kamala Harris is projected to win the state of New York, bringing her total to 99 EC votes. ND (8:40 p.m. ET) The AP is projecting Kamala Harris won the states of Illinois, New Jersey and Delaware, adding to her electoral college total with 71 overall EC votes. Donald Trump is projected to win Arkansas, bolstering his electoral college lead by bringing it to 101 total votes. JH (8:39 p.m. ET) Representative Andy Barr, a Republican from Kentucky, will keep his seat in the House of Representatives, bringing in almost two thirds of the vote in the ongoing tally on election night. That means he'll likely stay in the running for taking over the gavel in the House Financial Services Committee if Republicans retain the House. Barr had put himself forward to replace the retiring Patrick McHenry to lead the committee that's been the tip of the spear for crypto legislation in Congress. In this election, Barr had been among the 58 congressional candidates backed by industry PAC Fairshake, so the crypto sector has hopes for him. He's among at least five early winners among the Fairshake candidates, with no losses on the board, yet. ND (8:15 p.m. ET) Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, bête noire of the digital assets industry, kept her seat after facing a challenge from Republican (and crypto supporter) John Deaton in Massachusetts. Warren, one of the most crypto-skeptical members of Congress, ran well ahead of Deaton, a consumer attorney perhaps best-known in crypto circles for his work with XRP holders in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's case against Ripple. Deaton told CoinDesk in September that he expected the race to be close, though polling through October suggested he never ran less than 20 points behind Warren. "This race is winnable," he said at the time. "I believe that we're going to be pleasantly surprised at how competitive this race is going to be." ND (8:10 p.m. ET) The Associated Press is projecting Donald Trump won the states of Oklahoma, Missouri, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee and South Carolina, while Kamala Harris won the states of Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Trump now has 95 electoral votes, to Harris' 35. In more local results, Republican Brian Jack will represent Georgia in the House of Representatives for the next two years. Jack received $1.3 million from Defend American Jobs, a political action committee affiliated with the Fairshake super PAC. In New Jersey, Democratic Congressman Andy Kim will succeed Senator Bob Menendez in representing the Garden State in the Congressional body. Trump's odds of winning the election have risen to as much as 70 cents on Polymarket, though had dropped slightly to 68.5 cents as of press time. CL (7:42 p.m. ET) Republican Jim Justice has won a senate seat in West Virginia, replacing outgoing Democratic Senator Joe Manchin. Justice, the current governor of West Virginia, received over $3 million from pro-crypto super PAC Fairshake. He has previously said that he supports a "clear regulatory framework" for digital assets and is against the creation of a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC). His win brings Republicans one step closer to potentially flipping the U.S. Senate from Democrat control. The Associated Press projected Donald Trump would win West Virginia's electoral college votes, bringing his total to 23. TC (7:40 p.m. ET) Bitcoin and Solana rise as Trump Polymarket odds in Georgia and Pennsylvania surge BTC and SOL are up 1.7% in the last 30 minutes and trading at $70,800 and $170 respectively, possibly because of former President Donald Trump’s rising odds in the swing states of Georgia and Pennsylvania. Bettors on Polymarket now give Trump a 79% chance of winning Georgia, compared to 68% as of 6:25 p.m. ET, and a 58% chance of winning Pennsylvania, compared to 54%. ND (7:05 p.m. ET) Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) won election to the U.S. Senate, AP reported just past 7:00 p.m. ET, and will succeed Sen. Mike Braun, who successfully ran for governor of the state. Banks, who defeated Democrat Valerie McCray, received $3 million in support from Defend American Jobs, a political action committee affiliated with the Fairshake super PAC. The AP also said Sen. Bernie Sanders won reelection to represent the state of Vermont; Donald Trump is projected to win the electoral votes from Kentucky and Indiana, while Kamala Harris will win Vermont's electoral votes. Mark Messmer, an Indiana state legislator who received $500,000 in backing from Defend American Jobs, won election to the U.S. House representing the state. TC (6:25 p.m. ET) WHAT'S POLYMARKET SAYING ABOUT THE SWING STATES? Users of crypto betting site Polymarket seem to think that Trump has the advantage over Harris in a number of swing states. As of around 23:40 UTC, the market is giving Trump 54% odds of winning Pennsylvania, a 68% chance in Georgia and in North Carolina, 56% in Nevada, and 82% in Arizona. Harris, meanwhile, is leading in Michigan with 61% odds of winning. The two candidates are tied in Wisconsin. At the time of writing, these markets each have between $9 million and $25 million in bets. Polling aggregates from FiveThirtyEight show Harris and Trump neck-to-neck in Pennsylvania and Nevada, with Trump leading Harris in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. Harris has the advantage in Michigan and Wisconsin. The Super Model's analysis of top-performing Polymarket traders' state-level bets has flipped. It now favors Trump to win the electoral college 281-257. Polymarket as a whole sees him winning 297-241. The reversal "suggests early bits of data are good for Trump but not yet understood by the broader market," where the signal has mainly stagnated, says trader Flip Pidot. "The battlegrounds have gone from showing Harris undervalued in 7/7 states to now just 4/7 (with Trump undervalued in Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania)." CRYPTO LOOKING FOR A LIFT Crypto is hoping for an post-election lift, because it’s been an ugly year for most major crypto assets so far. The CoinDesk 20 — an index of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, excluding stablecoins and exchange tokens — is up 12% on the year, that’s mostly thanks to bitcoin (BTC), which has gained 59%. Bitcoin is weighed at 31% in the index, while ether (ETH) is worth 20%. The fact that these two assets are up year-to-date means that the bloodbath suffered by most of the other cryptocurrencies in the index has been somewhat concealed. Polygon (MATIC) has plunged 71% since the start of the year, despite the breakout success of betting website Polymarket, which is hosted on the blockchain. Cosmos (ATOM), polkadot (DOT) and avalanche (AVAX) — smart contract platforms that rose to prominence in 2021 — also performed badly, down 64%, 55%, and 41% each. Ether, of course, has disappointed expectations despite gaining its own spot exchange-traded funds, but at least the coin is up 6%. The real winner of the year is dogecoin (DOGE), up 76% since December. It’s worth noting that the original memecoin put in most of that performance in the last couple of months; the coin began rising in early September alongside bitcoin and former President Donald Trump’s odds on Polymarket, just as Tesla creator Elon Musk ramped up his efforts to help Trump get re-elected. JH (4:30 p.m. ET) FAIRSHAKE HAS MOVED ON TO 2026 If the crypto sector enjoys what Fairshake did with its mountain of money, the firms will probably like 2026, too. Of the $169 million raised in this cycle, officials of those affiliated political action committees said about $30 million was left over for the next congressional elections. That $30 million paired with another $25 million promised from Coinbase Inc. (COIN) and a $23 million commitment from a16z — both said to be planned for the opening of the next cycle — will start the industry PAC off with a whopping $78 million for an election cycle that doesn't even include a presidential race. The campaign-finance dominance from the crypto industry is only just beginning with Fairshake's 2024 performance, it seems. Starting with the GMI PAC in 2022, the sector has a definite strategy toward a crypto-friendly U.S. Congress. WHAT THE BIGGEST TRADERS ON POLYMARKET SAY Flip Pidot, co-founder and CEO of American Civics Exchange, an over-the-counter dealer in political futures contracts ... "curated a list of the top performing traders on Polymarket and built an electoral college forecast based on their bets alone. As of mid-afternoon Tuesday in New York, this "elite" model projects Harris will win 276-251, whereas Polymarket as a whole sees Trump winning 287-262. DIVIDED CONGRESS MAY BE … GOOD? The best way to get a good crypto bill at this point — meaning one that will last and stand up to party politics — would be if the chambers of Congress remained divided, as they are now, argued Jaret Seiberg, a longtime financial policy analyst in Washington. "Divided government is likely the most important outcome for crypto as we believe that is what produces a bipartisan regulatory structure that will remain intact regardless of what happens in future elections," he wrote in a note for TD Cowen clients. In this session that's winding down, the Senate has been controlled (barely) by Democrats, and the House had a very narrow majority in the House of Representatives, leaving the two chambers in divided hands. Crypto legislation did manage to wind its way through the House for the first time, but it made no real progress in the Senate. If it had, it would have required a carefully negotiated compromise. "That matters as we see policy stability as critical to the further development of the crypto sector," Seiberg argued. A bill driven entirely by one side of the aisle becomes an easy target when the tables turn. FINAL OUTCOME OF 2024 POLLING IS A SHRUG Two of the most prominent U.S. polling-analysis operations – 538 and Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin — based in similar statistical and political modeling, both concluded after careful study that the outcome of the presidential election is … a total mystery. Both operations suggested Vice President Kamala Harris has an advantage so slight that it's laughably unhelpful in the polling world, in which margins of error knock any meaning out of such a tight conclusion. In a hundred election simulations run by 538, stirring in the witches brew of battleground analysis and economic conditions, she wins 50 matchups to former President Donald Trump's 49. The other goes to an electoral-college tie, which favors Trump. In most scenarios, Harris easily wins the popular vote — an outcome without political meaning, thanks to the U.S.'s electoral-college approach to the election. Nate Silver's own secret sauce, he needed to stretch the decimal places to indicate the distinction: Of 80,000 final simulations run by his site, Harris won 50.015% of the time, to Trump's 49.985%. All seven battleground states have been so close that they're within the polling's margins of error, as well, leaving this closely examined contest a genuine coin toss, according to the analytical gurus. FAIRSHAKE SET UP FOR A HAPPY ELECTION NIGHT Crypto's campaign-finance arm Fairshake drew so much attention in the 2024 elections, and for good reason, since the industry dominated the political donations scene with its $169 million war chest. But the Fairshake political action committee and its affiliate PACs — backed mostly by crypto firms including Coinbase, Ripple and a16z — devoted their spending to congressional races only, choosing not to get into the presidential contest. The outcome: The effort is almost guaranteed to pay off with at least a couple of dozen new members of Congress that crypto dollars helped into Washington. And Fairshake made a careful division of its party giving (managing to anger both sides in the process). Its final list of 58 congressional candidates the groups supported included 30 Democrats and 28 Republicans. Many of those were already incumbents and crypto allies, but the PACs pursued a strategy during the primaries to help elevate crypto-friendly winners in districts in which their candidate's party was strongly favored to win in the general. That way, the general election is meant to be a night of victorious news. The same strategy worked for its earlier iteration, GMI, in the 2022 congressional elections. CRYPTO'S OHIO RISK Crypto PAC Fairshake's biggest focus was in Ohio, where the PACs dedicated tens of millions to sink crypto skeptic Sherrod Brown, the state's longtime Democratic senator, and lift blockchain entrepreneur Bernie Moreno, a Republican. The industry arm took a controversial risk with this one. Sherrod Brown is the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, which will likely have a major hand in whatever crypto legislation clears Congress. If the Republican challenger doesn't manage to knock Brown off, the crypto industry has cemented its antagonistic relationship with Brown as he keeps walking the Senate halls — a possibility that has some in crypto lobbying circles nervous. However, this chess is definitely three-dimensional. Because the Senate is statistically more likely to swing into Republican hands in this cycle, the committee chair may be Senator Tim Scott, a Republican from South Carolina. And he's recently come out as super excited about crypto. So, the industry might be able to clear a Senate bill without Brown's support if the crypto industry fails to get Moreno into that chamber. PREAMBLE The U.S. crypto industry is waiting with bated breath for the results of the 2024 election. Nearly $200 million from crypto-aligned political action committees has gone into supporting favored candidates, but some of the biggest races remain too close to guess who may win. CoinDesk will cover the election results live over the coming day (or days, depending on how things go), with market commentary and up-to-the-minute alerts on major races we're following – and how they may affect the crypto industry's chances for legislation, regulatory updates and more across the coming months. The biggest race is obviously the U.S. presidential election, with Kamala Harris facing off against Donald Trump. Polls begin closing on the east coast at 7:00 p.m. EST, but due to the tight nature of some of the races we're following, we may not learn results immediately. Significant lawmakers running for reelection include Sherrod Brown, the Ohio Democrat who runs the Senate Banking Committee, Elizabeth Warren, Jon Tester and Debra Fischer. The electoral map favors Republicans regaining the majority in the Senate. Similarly, Democrats are expected to regain the majority in the House of Representatives. In the House, there's an open question as to who will succeed retiring Congressman Patrick McHenry, who chairs the powerful House Financial Services Committee. A handful of Republican lawmakers are running to lead their party on the committee. Crypto political action committees, including the Fairshake super PAC and its affiliated entities, Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress, have supported dozens of candidates across the House and Senate. We'll also be keeping an eye on the prediction markets, especially crypto-based betting site Polymarket. For the last few months, these markets have mostly favored Trump winning, although Polymarket has given him higher odds than U.S.-regulated exchange Kalshi and other platforms. Right now, Trump is ahead by 23.4 points at 61.7% on Polymarket. An aggregate of eight prediction markets (plus Nate Silver's forecast) built by trader Flip Pidot of American Civics Exchange gives Trump a more modest the lead with 16 points at 58.1% https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/11/05/2024-election-trump-harris-bitcoin-crypto-live-updates/

2024-11-05 19:06

Just this week, in the run-up to Election Day, some big finance projects were announced — suggesting no worries about the road ahead. Global markets are jittery as traders watch the U.S. election. For crypto, a big unanswered question is whether the results might persuade the giants of finance to curtail or ramp up their ambitions for the industry. Several experts CoinDesk spoke with agreed that, regardless of the outcome, TradFi is unlikely to back away from crypto. Crypto traders are betting that Donald Trump winning a second term as president would be positive for digital asset prices, at least in the short term, and a victory by Vice President Kamala Harris would be negative. Large financial institutions, however, seem to be looking past that action in markets and viewing the election as a temporary catalyst that won't derail the adoption of crypto and blockchain technology over the long haul. “Adoption of digital assets at the institutional level will very much continue globally no matter who wins the election," said Phillip Shoemaker, executive director of Identity.com, a non-profit organization providing decentralized identity verification. Amid the cacophony leading up to Tuesday's election, it's been easy to overlook several positive developments on that front this week. Swift — the TradFi interbank messaging system — partnered with UBS and Chainlink to test allowing digital asset transactions to settle with fiat payment systems across more than 11,500 financial institutions in over 200 countries and territories. Meanwhile, Citigroup and Fidelity International developed a proof-of-concept for an on-chain money-market fund that includes a digital foreign exchange swap. That's just this week, building on many other similar stories this year. The point is: Firms such as Swift and Citigroup would be unlikely to announce such things if they feared this week's elections were likely to kill these initiatives. That said, there is a catch. The question isn't whether the election result will stop the adoption; it's whether it will affect timing. "It’s pretty clear to me that the outcome of the election will have a significant impact on the pace of such adoption," said Shoemaker. "If Trump were to win, I think we’d see a flurry of new ETFs in the United States for a wider variety of digital assets. We’d also see an acceleration in the use of stablecoins for payments, along with more and more corporations incorporating digital assets in one way or another into their strategies," he said. Echoing his sentiment, Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO Network, the world’s first blockchain geospatial oracle network, said: "If pro-crypto candidates win out in these elections, then we would see not only broader institutional adoption in the United States but also international organizations like the IMF and World Bank really warming up to crypto in a way that we just haven’t seen yet." On the other hand, a Harris win may slow down the pace of adoption due to a more restrictive regulatory regime. (The Biden administration that she's served in since 2021 has tended to be highly restrictive on crypto.) "If Harris were to win, I still think institutional adoption would happen. But it would happen more gradually," said Levin, pointing out that the Democrats are slowly coming around to crypto, including Harris herself, which means "it will just take more time for growing this Democratic support for the industry to have a material impact on the broader crypto market.” Shoemaker, however, has a slightly different take on a potential Harris win. He thinks prices of bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum's ether {{ETH} would be fine under her presidency, given that both assets have already been allowed to be packed up as exchange-traded funds in the U.S. Where it might be troublesome and potentially harm the pace of institutional adoption is how the Democrats will treat other digital assets. "I worry that altcoins could tank," he said. "I say this because there’s a decent chance that those like [Securities and Exchange Commission Chair] Gary Gensler would be empowered under a Harris Administration, and in turn, a number of digital assets might continue to face intense regulatory scrutiny. In such a scenario, adoption at the institutional level in the United States would likely be slowed and restricted.” Both points resonate. It wasn't long ago that the crypto industry was drowning in not only an unrelenting crypto winter but also intense regulatory crackdowns. In the wake of FTX's spectacular implosion, many wondered whether something dubbed "Operation Choke Point 2.0" — an alleged coordinated effort by the Biden administration to cut the cryptocurrency industry off from the U.S. banking sector — was in action. Many industry players took their businesses out of the U.S. and set up shop overseas. It wasn't until recently—albeit after Trump's endorsement of the industry this year—that this sentiment started to shift slightly among the Democrats, leading to a softer stance on the sector. However, Gensler will continue to remain a question mark for the Democrats, given his tough stance on crypto, despite the call for his replacement by even Democratic crypto voters. Also, large institutions crave regulatory clarity. So if Harris wins, the uncertainty around how she really feels about crypto might make them a bit cautious about their exposure to the industry. "The current market data suggests that institutional investors are particularly sensitive to regulatory clarity, and a Harris administration would need to change their historical stance to provide the predictability they seek," said Brian Dixon, CEO of Off the Chain Capital. "Institutional adoption under Harris could follow a more conventional path, with an emphasis on compliance and integration with existing financial infrastructure," he added, noting that a Trump win, on the other hand, will "catalyze" more dramatic market moves. With election results coming in the hours or days ahead, it's easy to get bogged down in the short-term debate around how the outcomes will change the crypto landscape. However, zooming out, it's worth noting that despite many turbulent market conditions and regulatory roller coasters, the digital assets industry has continued to advance and gained not just more crypto supporters but the attention of giant traditional institutions. The value of crypto to "bank the underbanked" continues to drive innovation in providing better financial services to those who otherwise wouldn't have access to them. As put by Michael Casey, CoinDesk's former chief content officer who is now chairman of The Decentralized AI Society: “These shorter-term fixations on the market miss the bigger picture of what’s at stake in terms of the place that blockchain technology should occupy in the evolution of the technology that’s impacting our lives." https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/11/05/will-us-election-change-crypto-maybe-but-tradfi-giants-likely-to-plow-ahead-regardless/

2024-11-05 18:40

Altcoins have lagged throughout the year amid regulatory uncertainty, and hence, K33 Research analysts said they are "more sensitive" to the election results. Bitcoin's dominance over the crypto market rose to a fresh high of 60.6%, the strongest since April 2021, as smaller cryptos, including ETH and SOL, underperformed during the recent pullback. Altcoins' struggle against bitcoin could persist in the mid-term due to a lack of major catalysts, Bitfinex analysts said. Coinbase's head of research said a favorable macroeconomic background into 2025 will provide a tailwind for the whole digital asset class, including altcoins. Bitcoin’s (BTC) grip on the whole digital asset class rose to a fresh 3.5-year high on Tuesday as alternative cryptocurrencies, or altcoins continued to struggle against the leading crypto with the U.S. election looming over the market. While BTC was down less than 4% from last week's near-record high of over $73,000, large-cap altcoins like Ethereum's ether (ETH) and Solana's native token (SOL) both dropped nearly 10% from their recent highs. The broad-market CoinDesk 20 declined nearly 6% Smaller cryptos fared even worse, as the combined market capitalization of altcoins excluding the top 10 largest cryptos, shown as OTHERS on TradingView, plummeted to the lowest relative to bitcoin since early 2021. The price action propelled bitcoin’s market cap dominance, which measures BTC's share of the total crypto market capitalization, to 60.6%, its strongest level since April 2021. "Altcoins are now seeing severe drawdowns whenever BTC pulls back," Bitfinex analysts said in a Monday report. "With BTC absorbing most of the capital flow into crypto assets, altcoins are struggling to keep up, and without a fresh catalyst, their prospects for a comeback in the near-term appear slim," the authors added. Speculative interest that supported altcoin outperformance during brief periods have vanished, as funding rates on perpetual futures markets normalized, the report noted. Bitcoin's winning streak against alts may continue for a while, Bitfinex analysts forecasted. "We believe that the altcoin market may experience further declines relative to bitcoin in the mid-term, primarily due to the apathy of speculators." Regulatory uncertainty weighs more on altcoins Altcoins have lagged through this year against bitcoin, in part because of their regulatory ambiguity, K33 Research noted in a Tuesday report. This means that the election results and the perceived outlook for digital asset regulations will matter more for smaller cryptos than BTC, the report added. "Bitcoin’s attributes and wide availability position it to thrive in the medium term, regardless of the [U.S. election] outcome," K33 Research analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman said. "For altcoins, the election is more sensitive," "This implies that the medium-term path dependency in alts should be more sensitive to the election than BTC," they added. Macro strength could provide a tailwind The elections, and the uncertainty around the outcome weighing on the market, might as well be the inflection point for altcoins starting to catch up with bitcoin, according to David Duong, head of research at Coinbase. "I would expect bitcoin dominance to start to kind of plateau here as altcoin names are probably going to take more of a front seat due to the fact that people are going to play them more because of the elections," said Duong in an interview with CoinDesk. He said the election will be a catalyst for crypto prices but likely won’t have an outsized impact, as favorable macro conditions will provide a tailwind to the whole asset class. "I would actually say I'm fairly optimistic through probably early to first half of the first quarter of 2025, in part because I think we're in a very strong macro environment and it's been very favorable,” he said. “I do think that we're gonna see us benefit from the elections as well, regardless of who wins." https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/05/bitcoin-price-crushing-altcoins-heading-into-us-election-is-there-an-alt-rally-coming-after/

2024-11-05 16:15

It's unlikely a crypto bill will become law this year, but not impossible. It is Election Day in the U.S. At some point in the coming hours, days and weeks, we'll know which major party wins control of the House of Representatives, the Senate and the White House. Presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump might get most of the headlines, but which political party controls Congress probably means a lot in terms of how cryptocurrencies will be treated in the nation, especially in the short term. What's next The narrative Today is Election Day in the U.S. There are numerous seats up for grabs in municipalities, state legislatures and governors' mansions across the country. There are 435 races in the U.S. House of Representatives, 33 races for the Senate and, of course, voters will choose who will occupy the White House for the next four years. Why it matters The next president of the United States will have an important role choosing regulators and potentially even advocating for crypto regulations, taking executive action or lobbying for legislation. This could — likely will — shape the crypto markets in the U.S. for years to come (and, in fairness, this was also true in 2020 and 2016). But this also stretches beyond this one single industry. The makeup of the House and Senate will likewise determine what sort of legislation, if any, is passed in the next few years and how that legislation might actually be implemented. From all accounts, the 2024 elections will be historically tight. Various House and Senate races and the presidential contest appear to be a coin flip. In other words, if you're reading this, can vote in the U.S. election and haven't yet, your vote may matter a great deal. Breaking it down On the crypto front, there exist several paths for legislation at the moment. They largely depend on the outcome of the election — which, it's worth pointing out, we may not know immediately. If one party wins the White House, House and Senate (they take office in January), we likely won't see any further progress toward crypto legislation this year, said Representative Tom Emmer, a Republican and current majority whip. That's because if a single party is poised for that trifecta, lawmakers can just wait a few months to craft a bill that wouldn't require heavy compromise with the other party. "If Republicans are in charge, I believe you will see some of FIT21 [the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act] in the final deal. But it may have to wait until — if President Trump is victorious — it may have to wait until he's inaugurated to actually get put into law," Emmer said. If different parties control the House and Senate next year, as groups like Cook Political Report predict, things get more complicated, and a lot more subjective. In that event, lawmakers may be more willing to compromise on legislation this year, Emmer said during an interview in early October. This could see crypto legislation advance as part of the National Defense Authorization Act or a funding bill, whether that's a continuing resolution or a proper budget. Senator Chuck Schumer, a Democrat and current majority leader, told listeners at a Crypto4Harris event in August that he believed it would be possible to pass a crypto bill by the end of 2024. Just what that legislation might be is still anybody's guess. FIT21, a crypto market structure bill championed by retiring Republican Representative Patrick McHenry, has long odds of becoming law this year, but it is the bill lawmakers have brought up most when asked in recent months. Representative Andy Barr, a Republican running to succeed McHenry as chair of the powerful House Financial Services Committee, said last month the bill should be reintroduced next year if it doesn't pass through and become law this year. "I think if we do have to reintroduce in the next Congress, if we don't get it done in this Congress, then it does present an opportunity for us to look at changes that might improve the product," he said. "And if the reason why it fails in the lame duck is that we didn't do a good enough job getting enough Democrats on board, then it gives us an opportunity to maybe see what we can do to get the job done." Another, longer-shot option is a yet-to-be-introduced bill from the Senate Agriculture Committee, which would be spearheaded by retiring Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow. This bill has faced complications (it hasn't even been introduced yet and faces opposition from the leading Republican on the committee) but in the event of a divided Congress, lawmakers may well decide it's a better vehicle than starting from scratch in 2025. Republican Senators Cynthia Lummis and Tim Scott discussed how this could play out during an appearance at a SALT symposium in August. Under their hypothetical, the bill would likely see some combination of commodities provisions, stablecoin provisions and other banking issues attached to what may end up as a "very broad financial services bill and then it's got enough flow to pass." One issue, she said, was whether there would be enough legislative days after the election for lawmakers to go through this entire process. Another issue, Emmer said in October, is the Senate has not gotten past the idea stage yet. "This is not a time for ideas," he said. "This is a time for something that's already been drafted, vetted and passed. I am not telling you it's going to get in that final deal, but if there is a final deal before the end of the year on funding the government and taking care of this budget … it is possible, with Patrick McHenry retiring at the end of the term, that some or all of that FIT21 bill finds its way into that final vehicle. It's possible. I wouldn't rule it out. I wouldn't bank on it, but I also wouldn't rule it out." Representative Wiley Nickel, a Democrat who is leaving Congress at the end of this term after his seat was redistricted, said in an interview last month that a bipartisan combination "gives us the best chance of moving the bill." Again, noting that some of this depends on how the election turns out, he also pointed to FIT21 as a possible bill that can move through the House and Senate before the year ends. Bipartisan support for whichever piece of legislation does move will also ensure it's more lasting, he said. "There are really good bipartisan majorities on all these issues," he said. "The point that I just keep making, though, is it's important — if we really want to get things done — we do it together in a bipartisan way." Crypto's guide to the election CoinDesk will run a live blog Tuesday evening in the U.S. tracking election. There are a number of House and Senate races that this industry is closely watching, whether because a candidate has expressed views about crypto legislation or because industry groups have put money into ousting incumbents — or both. In the Senate, the industry, largely through the Fairshake super political action committee and its affiliated PACs, has pumped nearly $80 million into a handful of races, with half of this — $40 million — going to unseat Ohio Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, the current chair of the Senate Banking Committee, and support Republican challenger Bernie Moreno; that race is largely even, according to 538's aggregation of polls. Some $20 million has gone to directly supporting Democratic Senate candidates: Ruben Gallego, a congressman from Arizona running to succeed Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who isn't seeking reelection, and Elissa Slotkin, a representative from Michigan running to succeed Senator Debbie Stabenow, who is retiring. Gallego currently leads against Republican Kari Lake, according to 538. Ditto for Slotkin against Republican Mike Rogers. Another $10 million indirectly supported Democratic Representative Adam Schiff in his bid for California's Senate seat, by running ads against fellow Democratic Representative Katie Porter during the primary. Schiff won the primary, and now enjoys a sizable lead against Republican Steve Garvey, per 538. Another $10 million or so has gone toward Republican Senate candidates (in addition to Moreno). Representatives John Curtis (Utah) and Jim Banks (Indiana), and Govenor Jim Justice (West Virginia) have all received roughly $3 million apiece. These races also appear to be much less competitive than Michigan or Arizona. CoinDesk is also closely watching the Senate races in Massachusetts, where attorney John Deaton is challenging Elizabeth Warren, perhaps the Senate's biggest crypto skeptic, and Pennsylvania, where former Bridgewater Associates CEO David McCormick is challenging Bob Casey. Democrats currently enjoy a very slim majority through the fact that the Senate's independent members currently caucus with them. Senator Joe Manchin (West Virginia.) is retiring and his seat is almost certainly flipping to a Republican. In Montana, Senator Jon Tester, a Democrat, is facing a tight race against challenger Tim Sheehy. In Nebraska, Senator Debra Fischer, a Republican, is similarly facing a tight race against challenger Dan Osborn (an independent). Republicans are favored to take the majority in the Senate, at least for the next two years. "This election is one election of the next three cycles … that looks most favorably toward Republicans," Lummis said during the panel in August. "The Democrats are defending more seats in purple states [this year], and in the next two elections, we're going to be on defense in purple states. So the best math for Republicans is this one." The House is another story. Like the Senate, it's expected to flip this election cycle, albeit from a Republican majority to a Democrat one rather than the other way around. Fairshake and its affiliated PACs threw a fair amount of money around in the primaries, particularly in races with a clear partisan tilt — meaning a successful primary winner is likely to win their general election as well. Crypto groups have donated nearly $50 million to House races, supporting both Democrats and Republicans in different races through Fairshake, Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress. The latter two entities are affiliated with Fairshake, and all three (plus a fourth group called the Cedar Innovation Foundation) all share a spokesperson. Support for House candidates include both incumbents, like Josh Gottheimer (Democrat) and William Timmons (Republican), as well as newcomers like Yassamin Ansari (Democrat) or Troy Downing (Republican). As mentioned above, there are also numerous state and local elections taking place. As we've seen, states may be a bit more speedy when it comes to developing crypto-specific policy than the federal legislature. Choices Beyond crypto, there are a lot of issues on the ballot this year — ones voters may even consider to be more important than digital assets. Pollsters haven't even put crypto as a major issue when surveying voters. A narrowly tailored poll commissioned by Paradigm suggested that just 5% of likely voters considered crypto a key issue. Even that poll saw a relatively small sample size and an overall margin of error of 3.5% — though as CoinDesk's Jesse Hamilton notes, that margin may grow for subsets of the overall respondents, such as a subset of likely voters who have any sort of crypto interest. Of course, the candidates, at least for president, reflect this reality. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have spent the past few weeks working their way across swing states to continue making their respective cases. Harris appears to have been trying to build a broad coalition with policy proposals targeted at different demographic groups, while Trump has been making increasingly authoritarian threats about his potential second term. Trump posted about the Bitcoin white paper's anniversary last week (saying "Bitcoin will be MADE IN THE USA!"), and the crypto project he's tied to, World Liberty Financial, has announced it would reduce its token sales goal after sluggish initial demand. However, the bulk of his remaining campaign has focused on appealing to a broader group than just crypto investors — namely, his base. The former president has held a number of rallies in the final days of the 2024 campaign, but the biggest one was held in Madison Square Garden on Oct. 27. That rally saw backlash after opening speakers attacked different ethnic groups, Harris and others. Former Trump White House official Stephen Miller echoed a Ku Klux Klan slogan in his remarks. "I'm here today with a message of hope for all Americans," Trump said when he took the stage, before later saying the "massive, vicious, crooked radical left machine that runs today's Democrat party … [is] indeed the enemy from within." On Monday, Trump said he would impose tariffs on goods imported from Mexico of between 25% and 100%, adding to his campaign's economic pledges to impose tariffs on goods from different countries. The Washington Post notes that Mexico is the U.S.'s largest trading partner, though through his campaign, Trump has also pledged to impose tariffs on other trading partners, including new ones on China. During her final major campaign address, Harris reiterated some of the policy proposals her campaign has already announced, including a ban on grocery price-gouging, capping the price of insulin and certain other prescription costs and helping people buy homes. "For decades as a prosecutor and a top law enforcement officer of our biggest state, I won fights against big banks that ripped off homeowners, against for-profit colleges that scammed veterans and students, against predators who abused women and children and cartels that trafficked in guns, drugs and human beings," she said on Oct. 29. On Sunday, she tweeted that she would legalize marijuana, something she's promised before during the campaign. Stories you may have missed President Biden Thanks Nigerian President for Binance Exec’s Release: White House: U.S. President Joe Biden spoke to Nigerian President Bola Tinubu to thank him for the release of U.S. citizen and Binance executive Tigran Gambaryan, the White House said in a press release and a tweet. If U.S. Election Is Disputed, Prediction Markets Could Face 'Hornet's Nest': CoinDesk's Marc Hochstein walks through Polymarket and Kalshi, and how the betting markets platforms may resolve its various contracts about the 2024 U.S. election. Plan a Crypto Mine Near a U.S. Military Base? Expect a Bigger Hassle Now.: The U.S. government issued a new rule growing its ability to question foreign real-estate deals near military bases last week. The move comes after MineOne, a crypto mining operation majority-owned by Chinese nationals, bought land near a military base housing nuclear missiles. Tornado Cash Developer Roman Storm’s Trial Delayed Until April: Roman Storm was set to go on trial this December. That trial has been pushed to April, after his legal team filed for a stay of a ruling about expert witness disclosures. Storm's team has filed for a writ of mandamus from an appeals court. Kemi Badenoch Is New Leader of U.K. Conservative Party: The U.K. Conservative Party has elected Kemi Badenoch as its new leader after Rishi Sunak, the former Prime Minister, stepped down. Trump's Crypto Business Slashes Fundraise Goal by 90% After Lackluster Sales: World Liberty Financial now plans to sell $30 million worth of tokens, rather than $300 million, after its initial token sale fell well short of its target, the company said in SEC filings. Andreessen Horowitz Donates $23M to Crypto Super Pac Fairshake for 2026 Elections: The 2024 election cycle isn't over but Fairshake is already looking to 2026, with $48 million in commitments from Coinbase ($25 million) and Andresseen Horowitz ($23 million). This week Tuesday U.S. Election Day. Are you a U.S. citizen? Have you voted? If your answers are yes, no, go fix that. (If your answers are no, yes, that is illegal. Tell me how you became possibly the 86th person in two decades to do so.) Elsewhere: (The Wall Street Journal) The Journal spoke to a pseudonymous Polymarket whale who bet $30 million that Donald Trump would win the 2024 presidential contest. (Unchained) Unchained spoke with Logan Dobson, the head of Stand With Crypto, the Coinbase-backed crypto advocacy group, about how it grades lawmakers and candidates on their friendliness to the industry. As a bonus, there's some inside baseball on the reporter's interactions with Stand With Crypto in reporting this story. (CNN) Someone appears to have tried to destroy a number of mail ballots by lighting some kind of incendiary device in two different ballot drop boxes. Police said they had a suspect. (The Washington Post) A number of companies' executives or spokespeople say they're preparing to raise the prices of goods if Donald Trump is elected president again and imposes the import tariffs he's made a key part of his campaign. (404 Media) An Elon Musk-funded political action committee continues to run ads pretending to support Vice President Kamala Harris, but by espousing policy positions that she doesn't hold and targeting voters who are likely to also oppose these positions. (The New York Times) During Trump's Madison Square Garden event, a comedian made a denigrating joke about Puerto Rico that Trump's campaign distanced itself from. The Times compiled a list of other jokes and comments that the campaign did not distance itself from. If you’ve got thoughts or questions on what I should discuss next week or any other feedback you’d like to share, feel free to email me at nik@coindesk.com or find me on Twitter @nikhileshde. You can also join the group conversation on Telegram. See ya’ll next week! https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2024/11/05/crypto-regulation-2024-election-impact/

2024-11-05 15:22

Semler Scientific's 26% gain following quarterly results was leading the advance for crypto-linked stocks. Risk assets are on the rise as Americans head to the polls to elect their next president as well as to determine which political party will control the two houses of Congress. Bitcoin (BTC) crossed back above $70,000 early in the U.S. trading day, up 2.4% over the past 24 hours. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index was higher by 1.6% over the same time frame, with Ethereum's ether (ETH) notably continuing to underperform bitcoin. At 0.03526, the ETH/BTC ratio fell to its weakest level since April 2021. Read More: Here's Why Today's U.S. Election Matters for Crypto Crypto-linked stocks were on the move as well. Semler Scientific — which reported its third quarter results Monday night — was higher by 26% as that company disclosed additional bitcoin purchases and reiterated its commitment to a bitcoin stockpiling strategy similar to that of Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy (MSTR). For its part, MSTR was higher by 7.5% in early trading. Recently roughed-up bitcoin miners like Marathon Digital (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Hut 8 (HUT) were sporting gains in the 3%-5% range. Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) was higher by 3%, though remains lower by about 10% over the past few sessions following a disappointing third quarter earnings report. In traditional markets, the Nasdaq was higher by more than 1% and the S&P 500 advanced 0.8%. Gold and oil were moderately in the green and the 10-year U.S. treasury yield was up seven basis points to 4.36%. Polls continue to show a tight race for not just the U.S. presidency but also the fight for which party might control the House of Representatives and the Senate. Betting market Polymarket though — after a very volatile past few days — is again showing sizably higher odds for a Donald Trump victory, currently 62% versus a Kamala Harris win at 38%. The odds for a Republican sweep — the presidency, the House and the Senate — are at 39%, while the odds of a Democrat sweep are at 16%. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/05/bitcoin-breaks-above-70k-as-crypto-and-us-stocks-move-higher-early-on-election-day/

2024-11-05 15:20

More than 1,000 memecoins related to the U.S. presidential election have been issued on Solana in the past 24 hours. Thousands of election-themed memecoins have been created on Ethereum and Solana over the past 24 hours. Memecoins issued in line with real-world events have historically been associated with scams and rug pulls. The Donald Trump-themed MAGA token topped a $150 million market cap following a surge in volume. While the U.S. election has directed investor focus to bitcoin (BTC) and the Polymarket betting platform, the murky memecoin market is also heating up, with thousands of election-themed tokens being created over the past 24 hours. According to Dextools, more than 40 tokens referencing presidential candidate Donald Trump were issued on the Ethereum blockchain between 06:00 and 14:30 UTC. On Solana, over 100 tokens were created between 13:30 and 14:40. In the past 24 hours, the total on Solana has topped 1,000 tokens. It's worth noting that memecoins are volatile by nature and the vast majority of these tokens are likely to turn out to be rug pulls or scams. There are, however, more established election-related memecoins including MAGA and the Kamala Harris-themed KAMA. Trading volume for MAGA, which launched in August 2023, has surged by 27% in 24 hours, taking its market cap above $150 million. KAMA rose by 150% on Nov. 1. It has since tumbled by 50% to an $11 million market cap. The spike in memecoin creation alongside a real-world event is nothing new. Memecoin hunters and issuers often ride the coattails of hype-fueled narratives in an attempt to "win big" by making a viral token. This often turns sour, as seen on last year's Bitcoin Pizza Day anniversary, when memecoin creators made more than $200,000 by rug pulling a series of different projects. World Liberty Financial, a decentralized finance (DeFi) project backed by Trump's family failed to impress last month. Although the token sale remains live, fewer than 1 billion of the 20 billion tokens up for sale have been taken. The project has raised $14.75 million out of an initial target of $300 million. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/11/05/memecoin-creators-hop-on-us-election-mania-with-thousands-of-new-tokens/