2024-11-04 11:11

Whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump becomes U.S. president probably won't dictate bitcoin’s price growth. Bitcoin is likely to top $100,000 after the U.S. election, if history is any guide. BTC is undervalued compared with previous cycles, measuring from either the cycle low or since the halving. Crypto markets are likely to remain volatile as we await the result of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election. Over the short term, this will probably dictate crypto’s price movements. However, once the situation settles down, bitcoin (BTC) is likely to experience a significant rally if the pattern from previous votes is repeated. Bitcoin, created in 2009, is about to experience its fourth U.S. election. Data from the three previous times shows the largest cryptocurrency has always rallied subsequently and never dropped back to its election-day price. If this trend reoccurs, the BTC price should peak in about a year's time. U.S. election is a bullish catalyst for bitcoin 2012 In the 2012 U.S. election, which also took place on Nov. 5, bitcoin was hovering around $11. The top of the cycle occurred in November 2013, which saw the price rocket by almost 12,000%, with bitcoin climbing to over $1,100. 2016 Fast-forward four years. During the first week of November, the price of bitcoin was approximately $700. It peaked in December 2017 at around $18,000, appreciating about 3,600%. 2020 After the most recent vote, the November 2020 election that coincided with the Covid-19 pandemic, bitcoin rallied 478% to a market top of around $69,000 a year later. It hit a record high over $73,000 in March 2024. After each event, with the price of bitcoin so much higher than four years before, the size of the jump has dropped, providing diminishing returns. The percentage decrease between the first and second number is 70%. Between the second and third it's 87%. If we extend the trend and assume that this time the decrease will be around 90%, that implies a post-election rally of about 47.8%. That would take bitcoin to about $103,500 in fourth-quarter 2025. More room for growth Keep in mind that bitcoin is currently undervalued compared with previous cycles. That's the case whether we measure it from the cycle low, which took place during the collapse of FTX in November 2022, as the graph below shows, or from April's mining-reward halving. In fact, this is the worst-performing cycle from the halving, with bitcoin just 7% higher than when the 50% cut kicked in, which adds to further evidence of the diminishing returns theory. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/04/bitcoin-likely-to-rally-after-the-us-election-irrespective-of-who-wins-history-shows-van-straten/

2024-11-04 10:07

The proof-of-concept, which will be exhibited at the Singapore Fintech Festival from Nov. 6-8, demonstrates how investors could settle multi-asset positions in real-time Citi and Fidelity have developed a proof-of-concept for a digital foreign exchange swap in an onchain money-market fund. The two firms have developed the proof-of-concept under the MAS' Project Guardian. Traditional financial (TradFi) powerhouses Citi (C) and Fidelity have developed a proof-of-concept for a digital foreign exchange (FX) swap in an onchain money-market fund (MMF). The proof-of-concept, which will be exhibited at the Singapore Fintech Festival from Nov. 6-8, demonstrates how investors could settle multi-asset positions in real-time. It could also allow them to access higher yields on foreign cash funds through. For example, allowing them to diversify their portfolios through investing in MMFs denominated in currencies other than the ones they hold, according to an announcement on Monday. Citi and Fidelity have developed to proof-of-concept under the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) Project Guardian, which is focused on advancing common standards for tokenization. Tokenization, the term for minting financial instruments as digital assets and trading them onchain, is a concept many TradFi giants are exploring as a means of improving efficiencies of global financial markets. For example, it could allow trades between assets denominated in different currencies to be settled in real-time as opposed to taking multiple days, as Citi and Fidelity are attempting to demonstrate with this proof-of-concept. Read More: Singapore Pushes for Commercialization of Tokenization https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/11/04/citi-fidelity-exhibit-proof-of-concept-for-real-time-forex-swap-onchain/

2024-11-04 06:58

While volatility is price-agnostic, recent flows in the options market suggest bullish expectations. The tight presidential race means the election could move BTC by $6,000 to $8,000, Amberdata's Greg Magadini estimates. DEX traders anticipate a bigger swing in ether. Market participants position for bullish volatility. Crypto traders awaiting a surge in bitcoin (BTC) price volatility may soon have it their way as derivatives experts suggest the impending U.S. presidential election could trigger price swings matching the dramatic movements of early August. "I expect a +1.5-Sigma ($6,000 to $8,000 price range) as a result of the post-election price reaction," Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at crypto data tracking platform Amberdata, told CoinDesk. The projection is based on the annualized forward volatility of 112% derived from the Nov. 6 options trading on Deribit, which suggests a price fluctuation of $4,000 in either direction. A positive 1.5-sigma of that translates to a price swing in the range of $6,000 to $8,000. Bitcoin last saw a similar price swing in early August when the unwinding of the so-called risk-on yen carry traders led to broad-based risk aversion, sending BTC down to $50,000. Magadini assumes 1.5-sigma volatility because the latest reports show Republican candidate Donald Trump, perceived to be crypto-friendly, and his rival Democrat Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race in seven swing states. The 50-50 odds indicate that an eventual outcome is unlikely to surprise markets, irrespective of who wins, implying a low probability of a positive 3-sigma move (three standard deviations from the mean in a normal distribution) looks unlikely. A positive 3-sigma move indicates an extreme event. Similarly, a sub negative 1-sigma move or minimal price action looks doubtful, as 50-50 odds mean traders won't be able to price the election outcome in advance. The election is due Tuesday, with results expected on Friday. Recall that volatility is bi-directional, meaning expected price swings could happen in either direction. That said, options traders have been preparing for bullish volatility, purchasing calls at $70,000, $85,000, and $90,000 strikes on Deribit and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. (A $8,000 surge from BTC going market rate of $68,800 would mean new record highs.) As such, call options are trading pricier than puts in terms of volatility in a sign of bullish sentiment, according to Joshua Lim, co-founder of crypto derivatives trading firm and liquidity provider Arbelos Markets. "Bitcoin call options are repricing higher, even while spot price ticks lower this weekend due to surprisingly weak polls for Trump," Lim said. Lim added that the volatility curve is pricing a 7%-8% move around critical events of the week, mainly Thursday's Fed rate decision and the expected U.S. election outcome on Friday. DEX traders see greater volatility in ETH Ether (ETH), the native token of Ethereum's blockchain and the world's second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, has historically been more volatile than BTC. That's unlikely to change with the U.S. election. According to onchain options listed on decentralized exchange Derive, there is a 68% chance of ETH chalking out a 9.35% to 10.19% price swing, with BTC expected to see volatility ranging between 8.97% to 9.85%. A 10% volatility in ETH means a $247 move at the going market rate of $2,470, and a 10% move in BTC implies a $6,800 swing. DEX traders are anticipating bullish volatility as well. As of Sunday, the total call option open interest stood at 1,179 contracts versus 885 open put option contracts, a sign of bullish inclination. "As the election nears, these figures are crucial for traders looking to navigate the heightened uncertainty in the crypto markets. It's a pivotal moment for onchain options trading, demonstrating the sophisticated strategies traders are employing to hedge against or capitalize on expected volatility," Nick Forster, founder of Derive, told CoinDesk. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/04/bitcoin-set-for-6k-8k-seesaw-as-us-elections-enters-final-stretch-analyst/

2024-11-04 05:47

The regulator has seen strong interest in tokenization among the fixed income, FX and asset management sectors. Singapore has announced new plans to advance tokenization. It published two frameworks on the acceptance and implementation of tokenized assets by financial institutions. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will introduce new measures to advance tokenization in financial services. The regulator said it will form commercial networks to deepen liquidity of tokenized assets, developing an ecosystem of market infrastructures, fostering industry frameworks for tokenized asset implementation and enabling access to common settlement facilities for tokenized assets. “MAS has seen strong interest in asset tokenization in recent years, notably in fixed income, FX, and asset management. We are encouraged by the keen participation from financial institutions and fellow policymakers to co-create industry standards and risk management frameworks to facilitate commercial deployment of tokenized capital markets products, and scale tokenized markets on an industry wide basis,” said Leong Sing Chiong, deputy managing director (Markets and Development) of MAS. Its crypto industry group, Project Guardian also published two frameworks on acceptance and implementation of tokenized assets by financial institutions. Project Guardian includes 40 financial institutions, industry associations and international policymakers across seven jurisdictions. The Guardian Fixed Income Framework will provide guidelines on implementing tokenization in debt capital markets, strengthen capabilities and catalyze adoption of tokenized fixed income solutions. Meanwhile, the Guardian Funds Framework will provide recommendations for industry best practices for tokenized funds, including provisions to develop tokenized investment vehicles comprising multiple assets. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/11/04/singapore-pushes-for-commercialization-of-tokenization/

2024-11-04 04:21

The most popular Polymarket bet has seen a flurry in trades ahead of Election Day, contributing to a surge of Harris’ winning shares on the betting platform. Democrat nominee Kamala Harris has eaten away at Republican rival Donald Trump's lead on Polymarket. Polymarket still gives a significant premium to Trump's odds of winning compared to polls. Perceived winning odds of Democrat Kamala Harris continue to rise on betting platform Polymarket ahead of the U.S. elections, with users buying and selling hundreds of thousands of favored shares in a bump for market activity. Polymarket is a blockchain-based betting marketplace where users can buy “shares” in the outcome of any prediction, winning USDC 1 per share if the outcome occurs. If a Yes share for an event costs $0.60, the market interprets this as a 60% chance of the event occurring. Shares of Harris winning the election have surged to over 44 cents ahead of Tuesday’s count, up from 33 cents on October 30. Republican Donald Trump’s shares have fallen in tandem, dropping from 66 cents to 55 cents in that time period. Meanwhile, polling aggregator Real Clear Polling gives Trump a microscopic edge at 48.5-48.4%. Bets above $10,000 and $100,000 have increased over the weekend to above-average activity. Large holders of Trump and Harris’ “yes” shares are offloading their shares amid the high demand, likely taking profits from the price rise in those shares over the past few months. The increase in Harris' odds might be due to traders hedging their bets, per a CoinDesk analysis, with a study of trades above $10,000 suggesting both large bets on Harris and strategic trading to protect against a Trump loss. Some market observers said the increase in Harris’ odds reflects hedging positions among traders who've also bet on a victory for her Republican rival Trump. Reports of voting irregularities against Trump could further be influencing market bets, with rumors about voting and fraud -- which if true would favor Democrats -- flooding social media over the past week. Well-known political bettor 'Domer' said in an X post Sunday that they give Harris a 55-60% chance of becoming the next President, factoring in various polls and voter behavior trends. The Polymarket whale pointed out that contrasting early voting trends show Republicans voting early more than Democrats, which could imply either strategic voting or a shift in voter behavior. In addition, post-2020 election results have not favored Republicans as expected despite President Joe Biden's challenges with his approval rating, suggesting a potential mismatch between current polls and actual voter sentiment or outcome. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/04/harris-and-trump-bets-near-even-odds-ahead-of-us-election-day-as-voter-fraud-rumors-swirl/

2024-11-03 12:27

At least according to betting markets, the U.S. presidential election has moved to nearly a 50/50 race versus the outlook for an easy Trump victory just days ago. "Markets hate uncertainty," goes an old Wall Street saw. Just about 96 hours ago, the price of bitcoin (BTC) was within a few dollars of breaking through its all-time high above $73,700, perhaps helped along by a surge in momentum for crypto-friendly GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump. At that time, Trump's victory chances on betting market Polymarket had risen to as high as 67% (with his opponent Kamala Harris' chances dropping to a corresponding 33%). Since, though, Trump's odds have been falling, as has the price of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. At one point overnight, the former president's victory chances declined to less than 53% (with Harris rising to above 47%). Alongside, bitcoin fell to as low as $67,600. At press time, during the U.S. morning hours Sunday, both Trump and bitcoin have come back a bit, with Trump sitting at 56% and bitcoin at $68,300, lower by more than 2% over the past 24 hours. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index is down 2.3% over the same time frame, with Cardano (ADA) and Avalance (AVAX) notable underperformers, each off nearly 6%. "It's crazy how correlated bitcoin price action is to Trump's election odds," wrote analyst Miles Deutscher on X. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/03/bitcoin-pulls-under-68k-as-crypto-markets-falter-ahead-of-election/