2024-10-14 05:59

BTC blows past downtrend line from late September highs, with $62,000 as key support. BTC blows past the downtrend line from late September highs, with $62,000 as key support. The dollar rally may be peaking. Ether's triangular consolidation continues. Bitcoin's (BTC) positive price action during Monday's Asia session suggests a strong possibility that the steep upward move that began at around $54,000 in early September is about to resume. BTC has risen over 2% to $64,300 in Asia, blasting past a trendline resistance off late Sept. 27 and Oct. 7 highs. The trendline represented a pullback characterized by a stimulus-led sharp upswing in oversold Chinese stocks and the strength in the dollar index. The trendline breakout, therefore, indicates the mini price swoon has ended and the upswing from September lows under $54,000 has resumed. The immediate resistance is seen at $64,461, from where prices turned lower on Oct. 7, followed by the late September high above $66,500. A major piece of resistance would be around $70,000, where the battle between bulls and bears has been most intense since March, with bulls constantly failing to secure a foothold. Note that re-test of breakout points is a common phenomenon, meaning prices could revisit the $62,000-$63,000 range before continuing to move higher. That said, a move below $62,000 would negate the bullish view, potentially bringing deeper losses below $60,000. The dollar index's rise has stalled near 103.00, supports the case for a move higher in risk assets, including BTC. The DXY formed a doji candle on Thursday, signaling indecision among traders. The dollar has held well within Thursday's trading range, teasing a potential end to the rally from late September lows near 100. A doji candle forms when an asset moves in both directions only to end the period on a flat note, indicating a lack of willingness among bulls and bears to lead the price action. The indecision after a notable upswing can represent potential trend reversal. "The momentum indicators have been stretched by the greenback's strong recovery this month. We are anticipating technical evidence to suggest the dollar is peaking," Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex and author of “Making Sense of the Dollar, said in a market update. Ether stuck in a triangle Ether (ETH) bounced off the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) early today but continues to trade within the confines of a triangular consolidation pattern, identified by trendlines connecting Aug. 24 and Sept. 27 highs and Aug. 5 and Sept. 6 lows. With BTC teasing a bull move, ether could look to break out of the triangle, exposing the next resistance at $2,770, the April 13 low from where prices surged back to nearly $4,000. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/10/14/crypto-chart-scan-btcs-uptrend-from-54k-looks-set-to-resume-eth-holds-200-day-average/

2024-10-12 15:47

China's highly-anticipated fiscal stimulus announcement fell short of expectations, reducing the likelihood of capital flows into Chinese equities. BTC revisited Friday's high above $63,000, maintaining the positive momentum. China's highly-anticipated stimulus announcement fell short of expectations, suggesting a low probability of continued outflows into China-linked assets. Bitcoin (BTC) made another push toward establishing a foothold above $63,000 on Saturday as China's highly-anticipated fiscal stimulus announcement fell short of expectations, reducing the likelihood of a capital rotation into Chinese equities. In a briefing on Saturday, China's Finance Minister Lan Fo’an promised additional support for the slumping property sector and indebted local governments but provided little information on the government plans to boost domestic consumption, which economists believe is necessary to avoid a deflationary spiral in the giant Chinese economy. The finance ministry announced a higher debt issuance but didn't disclose details of the fiscal stimulus, which could let the market down, according to analysts at ForexLive. In other words, Chinese equities will likely react negatively in the coming week, discouraging macro investors from moving capital out of cryptocurrencies and into China-linked equities. Per some analysts, that's precisely what happened in late September and early this month as a slew of stimulus announcements by the People's Bank of China torched a rally in the oversold Chinese equities, sucking out capital from Asian equity markets and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, rose to nearly $63,500 during the North American daytime, probing a downtrend line characterizing the pullback from late September highs above $66,000, according to data source CoinDesk and TradingView. Prices topped $63,400 late Friday but failed to sustain the move and dipped to $62,400 early today. A breakout above the trendline would imply an end of the pullback from the late September high and a resumption of the rally from early September lows under $53,000. The next resistance is at around $69,000, characterized by a trendline connecting lower highs registered in March and June. On the downside, key support is the Oct. 10 low of $58,890. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/10/12/bitcoin-takes-another-shot-at-635k-as-chinas-vague-fiscal-stimulus-deters-capital-shift/

2024-10-11 21:27

Solana's SOL, Avalanche's AVAX and Render's RNDR led the crypto rally as almost all but one member of the CoinDesk 20 Index posted gains. Cryptocurrencies sharply rebounded on Friday from the previous day's lows with bitcoin (BTC) retaking $63,000 as investors quickly shrugged off worries over slightly hotter inflation readings, turning their attention to a fiscal policy update from China on Saturday. Bitcoin, the leading crypto asset by market capitalization, shot up 7% from Thursday's trough below $59,000 after the hotter U.S. CPI inflation report, bucking this week's trend of giving up gains during the U.S. trading hours. Recently, BTC was up 5.5% over the past 24 hours, outperforming the broad-market CoinDesk 20 Index's (CD20) 4.7% advance. Tokens from Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX) and Render (RNDR) were the leaders among altcoin majors with 6%-8% gains. The only token of the CD20 index with a negative daily return was Uniswap (UNI), which slightly shed some of its Thursday gains that were spurred by the decentralized exchange's plan to launch its own layer-2 network. The crypto rally happened as equities also gained, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 closing the week at record highs. The U.S. dollar index paused below 103 after steeply strengthening over the past week as traders repriced expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts following solid U.S. jobs reports and hotter inflation readings. Crypto-related stocks also reflected the positive sentiment. Bitcoin miners including MARA Holdings (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Bitdeer (BTDR) soared 5%-10%, while U.S. crypto exchange giant Coinbase (COIN) ended the day up 7%. MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of BTC with nearly $16 billion of the asset, surged 16% to its highest price since March 2000. The company's share price premium versus its bitcoin holdings also broadened to the widest since 2021. China fiscal policy update may move crypto Macroeconomic factors influencing crypto prices have shifted away from monetary policy to the U.S. election outcome, Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han said in a Friday report. The key catalyst for crypto volatility might be the upcoming China fiscal policy update by the finance minister slated for early Saturday UTC. Investors anticipate more financial stimulus for the ailing Chinese economy and financial markets, which could reverberate in the digital asset market, the Coinbase report noted. "As most markets will be closed during this next briefing, we expect traders could turn to crypto markets as a way to express their (proxy) views on the size and strength of China’s fiscal announcements," the authors said. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, noted that recent U.S. economic data shows a resilient economy and jobs market, allaying past concerns over an imminent recession. "This sets the stage for risk assets to perform well into year-end, and it may take little to drive crypto prices higher," Thielen said. "A significant move is likely on the horizon, and diligent traders will be well-positioned to capture it." https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/10/11/bitcoin-bounces-7-above-63k-as-crypto-traders-eye-china-stimulus-statement/

2024-10-11 18:46

The WLFI token sale will be open for everyone who has been qualified through the project's whitelist. World Liberty Financial, the nascent decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol supported by Donald Trump and his family, announced plans to start selling tokens on Tuesday – exactly three weeks before the presidential election for which Donald Trump is the Republican candidate. "Public sale starts [on] October 15th, open to everyone who qualifies through the whitelist," the project's social media account posted on Friday. Bettors on blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket see Donald Trump as the frontrunner in the presidential election taking place on Nov. 5. World Liberty Financial is spearheaded by Zachary Folkman and Chase Herro, who worked previously on DeFi platform Dough Finance, which saw $2 million of crypto assets drained through a July exploit. Members of the Trump family, including Donald Trump, publicly championed the project on social media, with the former president being titled as "Chief Crypto Advocate" Two of his sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., are involved as "Web3 Ambassadors," while his other son Barron Trump is listed as "DeFi Visionary." The project aims to raise $300 million from the token sales at a valuation of $1.5 billion, according to its roadmap obtained and reported by The Block on Thursday. The upcoming token, called WLFI, serves as the protocol's governance token and would allow users to vote on initiatives about the the protocol's development, the report added. The project proposed to launch on DeFi lending powerhouse Aave's v3 platform on Ethereum mainnet for "providing liquidity for ether (ETH), wrapped bitcoin {{wBTC}}, stablecoins and potentially other digital assets," according to an Aave governance post on Wednesday. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/10/11/trump-supported-world-liberty-financial-will-start-public-token-sale-next-week/

2024-10-11 15:01

Crypto wallets linked to the defunct exchanges still hold $2.8 billion of bitcoin after having distributed about $6 billion worth of assets to creditors earlier this year. The Mt. Gox trustee postponed the deadline to repay creditors by one year to October 31, 2025. The delay "could assuage near-term concerns around supply overhangs," Coinbase analysts said. The trustee managing the assets of Mt. Gox postponed the deadline to distribute remaining assets to creditors by one year to October 31, 2025, according to a Thursday statement published on the Mt. Gox website. Mt. Gox, which was once the largest crypto exchange before it imploded due to a hack in 2014, started repaying nearly $9 billion of recovered assets to creditors this July after many years of delays. However, crypto wallets linked to Mt. Gox still hold 44,900 bitcoin (BTC) worth $2.8 billion, Arkham Intelligence data shows. "Many rehabilitation creditors still have not received their Repayments because they have not completed the necessary procedures," the Mt. Gox trustee's statement said. "A considerable number of rehabilitation creditors have not received their Repayments due to various reasons, such as issues arising during the Repayments process." Bitcoin prices earlier this year reacted negatively to the news of the looming Mt. Gox distribution and and on-chain transfers over the past months, as observers pondered how much of those assets creditors will sell on the open market after waiting to reclaim their holdings for ten years. Delaying the repayment deadline by one more year could lessen those worries. "This could assuage near-term concerns around supply overhangs, though there could room for downside volatility once those on-chain funds begin moving again," Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han said in a Friday report. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/10/11/mt-gox-postpones-repayment-deadline-to-2025-allaying-concerns-of-bitcoin-sell-pressure/

2024-10-11 13:41

The stock has gained 4% since bitcoin hit an all-time high in March, while bitcoin itself has declined 16%. MicroStrategy's net asset value premium hit 2.5 times it's bitcoin holdings, which is the highest since February 2021. The gap is rising even more on Friday as MSTR shares jump 11% versus bitcoin's 3% advance. MicroStrategy increased its "Bitcoin Yield" KPI to 5.1% from 4.4% in Q2 2024. The company's aggressive accumulation strategy means the premium could continue for the longer term. Disclosure: The author of this story owns shares in MicroStrategy (MSTR). Shares of self-described Bitcoin Development Company MicroStrategy (MSTR) continue to advance relative to the price of bitcoin (BTC), expanding the premium to the value of its holdings to the highest level in more than three years. The company's so-called net asset value (NAV) premium is calculated by dividing MSTR's market capitalization by the value of its bitcoin stack, and it has risen to roughly 2.5, according to MSTR-tracker, the highest level since February 2021. Prior to the Friday market opening in the U.S., MicroStrategy had a market cap of around $37.14 billion, with its 252,220 BTC valued at $15.1 billion. In the hours since, that premium has expanded further, with MSTR soaring 11% to a 25-year high, far outpacing bitcoin's 3% gain. Not only is the NAV multiple at its highest level for years, but dividing the MicroStrategy stock price by the bitcoin price totals 0.0030. That's the highest ratio since the company's adoption of bitcoin started in August 2020. MicroStrategy has outperformed bitcoin in 2024 When the spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds launched on Jan. 11, there was much deliberation beforehand about how bitcoin-related equities, such as MicroStrategy, would perform due to the huge expectations of the ETFs. However, since the launch of the ETFs, MicroStrategy stock has gained more than 240%, making a new record high on Oct. 8. That's about 8 times better than the performance of bitcoin, which is lower by 16% since hitting its own record all the way back in March. Explaining the premium Since adopting bitcoin as a balance sheet asset in August 2020, MicroStrategy has aggressively leveraged financial instruments such as at-the-market equity offerings (ATM) and convertible senior notes to raise capital to steadily boost its coin stash. As a result, the bitcoin per share has continued to increase, which is accretive for shareholders. Bitcoin per share can be defined as the amount of bitcoin that each outstanding share of MicroStrategy equates to, which is currently at 0.0012. In both instances, equity financing and debt financing involve shareholder dilution. The share count for debt financing increases once the convertible debt is converted into equity. Meanwhile, equity offerings involve shareholder dilution each time shares are sold through the ATM program. However, the important part is whether the bitcoin holdings can grow faster than the shareholder dilution, and that's been the case over the last four years. A new key performance indicator (KPI) coined by MicroStrategy is the "Bitcoin Yield," which the company defines as the percent change period-to-period of the ratio between the company’s bitcoin holdings and its Assumed Diluted Shares Outstanding." This metric increased to 5.1% for the second quarter, up from 4.4% three months earlier. With MicroStrategy showing no signs of stopping this aggressive accumulation strategy and investors seeking greater returns than holding bitcoin itself, the NAV premium could in theory continue over a long period. Update (Oct. 11, 2024/15:50 UTC): Added price action during Friday morning U.S. trading hours. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/10/11/microstrategys-nav-premium-hits-highest-since-2021/