2025-12-05 07:04
Key takeaways UK economic data showed a subdued environment in the run up to the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget. GDP growth slowed in Q3 while unemployment rose and pay pressures moderated. The Autumn Budget left a more stable fiscal position but did little to bolster growth. Source: HSBC Some greater stability gives a better foundation for growth The months leading up to the UK Autumn Budget were clouded by high uncertainty and policy speculation, which appear to have contributed to a slowing in activity momentum. Indeed the PMI survey pointed to a slowing in growth in November with a notable downturn across the services sector, which reported a contraction in new order volumes. Notwithstanding that softness, against a backdrop of Budget uncertainty, activity surveys have been a less reliable signal of overall GDP growth, in fact, overestimating economic growth in Q3. The UK economy eked out a 0.1% q-o-q expansion in the third quarter as business investment fell, and despite a small uptick in household consumption, a slowdown in government spending, which has been a driver of growth in recent quarters, weighed on overall growth. It's possible that the economy sees a ‘bounce-back’ in the coming quarters. With the majority of fiscal tightening backdated into future years, the near-term outlook is little changed. While greater ‘headroom’ against the Chancellor’s fiscal targets should see a period of greater policy certainty, if that can translate into higher confidence, then the UK could see some upside news in Q1 2026. Following the 2024 Autumn Budget and a weak H2 2024, Q1 2025 growth was robust at 0.7% q-o-q. But let’s be honest, given the low bar set in Q3 (and expected in Q4), some relatively more positive news early in 2026 shouldn’t be too difficult. Higher unemployment and slower pay growth Elsewhere, a weak demand backdrop and higher unit labour costs have seen a continued softening in the labour market throughout 2025. The unemployment rate rose to 5.0% in the three months to September and more timely payroll and survey data point to further headcount reductions in Q4. Private sector pay growth slowed to 4.2% 3m/yr in September and given the slack building in the labour market, we expect more muted pay pressures into 2026. However, a further increase in the National Living Wage to around 66% of median earnings and over 70% in some regions is new territory for the UK economy, while firms’ wage growth expectations have ticked higher in recent months, to 3.8%, up from 3.5%. Whether firms respond through headcount reductions or higher inflationary pressures, both are risks for the UK economy in 2026. UK Autumn Budget: Economic need to know for businesses From a macroeconomic perspective, there was very little in the Autumn Budget that was judged to bolster economic growth – the OBR went as far as explicitly saying so. As such, and despite higher government borrowing and expenditure in 2026, the OBR downgraded its annual 2026 GDP forecast to 1.4%. While a lack of substantial growth initiatives is a disappointment, the additional headroom against the main fiscal target to have the current budget balance in 2029/30 was welcomed. An increased margin of error from GBP9.9bn to GBP21.bn conditioned on a lower GDP growth path raises the bar for that headroom to be eroded and improves the resiliency of the UK to market or external economic shocks. Indeed, the market reactions in government bond yields and sterling have been positive. However, the Budget did little to address the underlying challenges in UK public finances and therefore medium to longer term risks remain. Namely the prospect of further undershoots in the UK’s economic performance. Notably, despite the downgrade to productivity growth to 1.0%, the OBR remains more optimistic than other forecasters and the historical average. Moreover, with tax rises and some real-terms departmental spending cuts pencilled in for 2029/30, it raises the risk of ‘fiscal fictions’, i.e. whether those measures will be enacted when the time comes. To address those concerns, the government has announced its intention to bring forward passing legislation on some measures: at the time of writing, the cap for pension salary sacrifice at GBP2,000 appears to be the focus, alongside updated business rate valuation – both additional costs to firms in the coming years. Source: Macrobond, ONSl, HSBC Source: Macrobond, OBR, HSBC https://www.hsbc.com.my/wealth/insights/market-outlook/uk-in-focus/a-better-foundation-for-growth/
2025-12-01 12:02
Key takeaways The NZD has strengthened after the RBNZ’s hawkish cut, potentially marking the end of the easing cycle. Market sentiment is positive regarding the UK Autumn Budget, supporting the GBP. In our view, the NZD seems to have found a bottom, while GBP-USD may gain further over the near term. Over the past week, the NZD led the performance among G10 currencies, with the AUD and GBP following closely (Chart 1), driven by specific domestic factors. On 26 November, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.25%, as widely expected. The central bank’s policy rate projection indicates a minimal additional reduction of 5bp, with the lowest rate expected by June 2026. Governor Hawkesby noted that this aligns with the rate remaining stable in 2026. The RBNZ emphasised that the significant 325bp reduction since August 2024 is bolstering demand, and the unemployment rate has peaked. Following this announcement, NZD-USD jumped, driven by rate dynamics (Chart 2). With a floor now established under the terminal rate, we believe the NZD has found a bottom. Any improvement in risk appetite could further strengthen the NZD as the year draws to a close. Note: Data as of 27 November 2025 (19:25 HKT). Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Like the NZD, the AUD has been benefiting from similar drivers. With both headline and core CPI inflation for October surprising on the upside, markets have dismissed the likelihood of rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), anticipating a hold instead (Bloomberg, 27 November 2025). We believe the AUD’s support through the rates channel is becoming limited. Meanwhile, the GBP has experienced a relief rally following the UK’s Autumn Budget announcement on 26 November. Markets responded positively to a GBP26bn tax increase for 2029/30, which provides GBP22bn of fiscal headroom. Additionally, enhancements to child benefits may have mitigated immediate political risks. In our view, GBP-USD could rise further over the near term, influenced by factors on the US side (please refer to “FX Viewpoint - USD: Fed unknowns” for details). https://www.hsbc.com.my/wealth/insights/fx-insights/fx-viewpoint/nzd-and-gbp-beyond-relief-rally/
2025-11-28 12:01
Key takeaways The US government shutdown has come to an end. Historically, real GDP tends to rebound in the following months as federal spending resumes. We remain overweight on US stocks due to solid earnings momentum and the AI transformation broadening opportunities across IT, Communications, Utilities, Financials and Industrials. However, uncertainty over Fed policy, job creation and the build-out of AI has led us to trim US exposure and diversify into Asia, gold and hedge funds, while preferring investment grade over high yield. AI adoption and domestic consumption are twin tailwinds for Asia. In South Korea, strong memory demand, solid earnings expectations and the Corporate Value-Up programme justify our overweight stance. Japan is also upgraded to overweight, supported by a re-rating opportunity linked to the new Prime Minister’s agenda, governance reforms and record-high share buybacks. These upgrades complement our preference for mainland China, Singapore and Hong Kong, as well as Asian investment grade credit, reflecting the positive momentum in the region. While the UK Budget has eased near-term fiscal concerns by increasing headroom to GBP22bn, economic momentum remains fragile, reinforcing market expectations of policy easing around year-end while we lean towards February 2026. The high level of net government debt and the reversal of quantitative easing policies mean that gilt yields trade with a risk premium. We prefer GBP investment grade credit and remain neutral on UK stocks as re-rating catalysts are lacking. https://www.hsbc.com.my/wealth/insights/asset-class-views/investment-monthly/ai-transformation-broadens-exposure-across-asia-and-sectors/
2025-11-24 12:01
Key takeaways Table of tactical views where a currency pair is referenced (e.g. USD/JPY):An up (⬆) / down (⬇) / sideways (➡) arrow indicates that the first currency quotedin the pair is expected by HSBC Global Research to appreciate/depreciate/track sideways against the second currency quoted over the coming weeks. For example, an up arrow against EUR/USD means that the EUR is expected to appreciate against the USD over the coming weeks. The arrows under the “current” represent our current views, while those under “previous” represent our views in the last month’s report. https://www.hsbc.com.my/wealth/insights/fx-insights/fx-trends/usd-strength-to-diminish/
2025-11-24 12:01
Key takeaways The DXY has exceeded 100, but the USD is likely to face downward risks, in our view. These risks could arise from a potential insurance cut by the Fed in December. Fed succession discussions might influence future rate paths and even trigger independence concerns. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has recently climbed above the 100 mark (Chart 1), prompting debate on whether the USD’s decline has ended and if an upward trend is imminent. In our view, further USD softness is likely, contingent on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming decisions and the appointment of its new Chair. For the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) rate announcement on 11 December at 03:00 HKT, markets currently price in a c40% chance of a 25bp cut (Bloomberg, 20 November), after the FOMC minutes for October suggest that “many” FOMC members are inclined to leave policy unchanged at the December meeting. Our economists slightly favour a rate cut in December, provided some labour market data shows softness. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release October/November employment figures on 16 December. Should the Fed implement an insurance cut, the USD is likely to soften albeit with modest flow through. Conversely, if rates remain unchanged, the USD might spike, although the Fed is likely to indicate openness to future cuts. With a c95% chance of a January cut currently priced in (Bloomberg, 20 November), the scope for USD strength appears limited. Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Looking ahead to 2026, the extent of the Fed’s rate cuts may be influenced by the selection of the next Chair. Recently, US President Trump has indicated he has identified a candidate for the Fed Chair position, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, overseeing the selection process, aims to finalise it next month (Bloomberg, Fox News, 19 November). The eventual appointee is unlikely to trigger a significant hawkish market repricing (Chart 2),which may keep the USD defensive. Concerns about Fed independence may also heighten, potentially extending and exacerbating the USD’s decline into next year. That being said, once the Fed’s easing cycle ends and its incoming Chair is revealed, there is a stronger case for the USD to then bottom. https://www.hsbc.com.my/wealth/insights/fx-insights/fx-viewpoint/usd-fed-unknowns/
2025-11-20 12:01
AI transformation underpins a bull market outlook As a year of surprises draws to a close, it’s a good time to filter out the noise and refocus on the fundamental drivers of performance to position our portfolios for 2026. Recent months have provided more clarity on the tariff front, while US earnings delivery remains strong, supported by tech-led productivity gains and a robust capex cycle that’s still under-estimated by markets. However, a sharp runup in valuations, debt piles and the longest government shutdown in US history spurred some profit-taking recently. Some investors are wondering how long the bull market can last. What does this mean for the 2026 market outlook? We believe the key drivers behind our positive view are likely to persist. The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) should remain a defining theme in 2026 globally. Not only is a reversal of this trend very unlikely, but we also see opportunities widening across sectors in the AI ecosystem. Industrials and Utilities should benefit from the growing demand for digital infrastructure and electricity, while long-term structural initiatives continue to prioritise reshoring and re-industrialisation to strengthen strategic autonomy in supply chains, especially in technology and defence. According to the OECD, AI could add between 1% and 2.5% to labour productivity in the next 10 years. Unlike other regions, most of the US equity market returns have come from earnings growth rather than P/E multiple expansion. Valuations have risen, yet they’re still far below the levels of the dot-com period. And Q1 2026 earnings forecasts still look a bit conservative, creating room for positive surprises in Q1. Hence, we’re not worried about an AI bubble, but do believe that short-term market dips should be expected. Outside of the US, Asia enjoys twin tailwinds – a diverse, fast-growing AI ecosystem at attractive valuations and resilient domestic demand supported by policy measures. As far as data-centre growth capacity is concerned, Asia is expected to outpace its global peers for the period of 2025-2030. Corporate governance reforms will also help enhance return on equity (ROE) in the region. Our barbell strategy, balancing our preference between tech innovation champions and high dividend stocks or quality bonds, has been working well. These dynamics support our recent upgrade of Hong Kong, Japanese and South Korean equities to overweight, alongside the US, mainland China and Singapore. We also favour the structural and cyclical opportunities in the UAE and South Africa within the EM EMEA region. Preparing for short-term market dips amid a positive trend Nevertheless, we remain mindful of policy and macro uncertainty. The US Federal Reserve could end its rate-cutting cycle sooner than expected, and data-centre construction could face delays due to labour shortages – not to mention the potential for escalating geopolitical tensions in any region. Our analysis of different asset classes finds that there’s no silver bullet in achieving portfolio resilience under various risk scenarios. We therefore continue to diversify across assets, regions, sectors and currencies via multi-asset strategies to manage concentration and downside risks. We’ve repositioned our strategy by trimming exposure to US equities a bit, while still maintaining a positive view. We’ve added to Asia, underweighting US Consumer Staples and high yield bonds, while leaning on global investment grade and EM local currency government bonds, as well as gold, to build resilience. A growing need to diversify the diversifiers Moreover, as markets focus a lot on Fed policy, assets have become more correlated in recent months. We see value in adding alternatives as an additional layer of diversification. To provide our customers with more insights into the role of alternative assets in portfolios and the outlook for gold, we have invited our in-house experts to explore these topics in the feature articles of this publication. We hope our investment themes and the broader content in our Think Future 2026 will help you navigate the year ahead. Best wishes for a successful investment journey. https://www.hsbc.com.my/wealth/insights/market-outlook/investment-outlook/ai-transformation-underpins-a-bull-market-outlook/
