2025-08-29 04:57

Investors brace for US inflation data later on Friday Legal tussle between Trump and Fed's Cook to weigh on sentiment Investors jittery about Fed's independence New Zealand dollar slips after RBNZ Chairman resigns SINGAPORE, Aug 29 (Reuters) - The dollar was steady on Friday but poised for a 2% drop in August against major currencies on rising bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month, while worries about the threats to the U.S. central bank's independence linger. The euro was flat at $1.1677 while sterling slipped 0.2% to $1.3474. Both currencies are on course to end up over 2% against the dollar this month. Sign up here. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar was steady at 146.975 yen. President Donald Trump's campaign to exert more influence over monetary policy, including this week's attempt to fire Lisa Cook, one of the Fed's governors, has weighed on the dollar. Cook filed a lawsuit claiming Trump has no power to remove her from office and also filed a motion for a temporary restraining order, the hearing for which is scheduled on Friday. The legal battle is the latest chapter in Trump's attempts to reshape the central bank after repeatedly criticising the Fed and its Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates. Still, market reaction to the battle between Trump and Cook has been relatively muted, with slight dollar selling and curve steepening with investors keeping their near-term focus on the prospects of rate cuts by the U.S. central bank. Money markets are currently pricing in an 86% chance of a rate cut in September, up from 63% a month earlier, CME FedWatch showed. "While markets remain reluctant to speculate on this Fed story and continue to focus on data-driven short-term developments, the downside risks for the dollar have undoubtedly grown," Francesco Pesole, an FX strategist at ING, said in a note. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he wants to start cutting rates next month and "fully expects" more rate cuts to follow to bring the central bank's policy rate closer to a neutral setting. Investors will parse through the PCE price index report, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, later on Friday. On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation is estimated at 2.6%, after rising at the same rate in June. While a reading of 3% or higher will raise eyebrows after the Fed’s dovish pivot, the key data remains next Friday’s labour market report ahead of the September FOMC meeting, said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG. Elsewhere, euro zone consumers kept their inflation expectations mostly stable at or above the European Central Bank's 2% target in July, according to an ECB poll released on Friday. Data released on Friday also showed that French consumer prices rose slightly less than anticipated in August while Spain's European Union-harmonised 12-month inflation rate was steady at 2.7%. "We don’t think there will be much in the data to convince markets to materially reprice ECB rate expectations just yet," Pesole said. Among other currencies, the New Zealand dollar , was slightly stronger after Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chairman Neil Quigley tendered his resignation, citing the fallout over the handling of the sudden resignation of the central bank's governor earlier this year. China's yuan hit its strongest level in 10 months against the dollar as steady central bank fixings and a hot domestic stock market drive the currency higher, while the Indian rupee dropped to a record low, weighed down by worries about the economic impact of steep U.S. tariffs on Indian imports. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-set-monthly-drop-growing-us-rate-cut-wagers-2025-08-29/

2025-08-29 04:50

Dollar heads for monthly drop Focus on US PCE data later in the day Gold up 3.7% so far this month Aug 29 (Reuters) - Gold prices were on track for a monthly rise on Friday, supported by a softer dollar and increased expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut in September. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $3,411.29 per ounce, as of 0704 GMT, on profit-taking. Bullion gained 3.7% so far this month and hit $3,423.16, its highest level since July 23, on Thursday. Sign up here. U.S. gold futures for December delivery eased 0.1% to $3,470.80. The dollar (.DXY) , opens new tab was set for a monthly drop, making the greenback-priced gold less expensive for holders of other currencies. "The precious metal remains a popular pick with investors ahead of what is expected to be a period of looser monetary policy in the U.S. starting next month," said KCM Trade chief market analyst, Tim Waterer. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday stepped up his call for cutting short-term U.S. borrowing costs, saying he would support an interest-rate cut next month and further reductions over the next three to six months. Traders say there is an 86% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed's policy meeting next month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Non-yielding gold typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment. Investors are now awaiting the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in the U.S., the Fed's preferred inflation measure, due later in the day, for further cues on the Fed's interest rate trajectory. "If we see core PCE come in steady at 0.3% for the month, this will keep things on track as far as expected rate cuts from the Fed is concerned," Waterer said. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit on Thursday claiming U.S. President Donald Trump has no power to remove her from office. Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.6% to $38.82 per ounce, platinum fell 1.2% to $1,343.80 and palladium was down 0.4% to $1,097.73. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-poised-monthly-gain-soft-dollar-us-rate-cut-hopes-2025-08-29/

2025-08-29 04:33

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee Investors cap off a volatile week dominated by Federal Reserve drama and Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab earnings with Friday's release of a key inflation measure that could influence the Fed's September policy meeting. Sign up here. Expectations are for the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - to have stayed steady at 0.3% on a monthly basis, putting the annual rate at 2.9%. However, there is the risk the data may reveal more evidence of U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs filtering into consumer prices, following a recent upside surprise in producer inflation. Still, markets have pretty much priced in a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed in September, though what happens after that remains uncertain. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he wants to start cutting rates next month and "fully expects" more rate cuts to follow to bring the Fed's policy rate closer to a neutral setting, stepping up his call to lower short-term borrowing costs. Bets of imminent Fed cuts left the dollar set for a monthly fall on Friday, with worries about the central bank's independence also weighing on the currency as Trump steps up his campaign to exert more influence over monetary policy. Fed Governor Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit on Thursday claiming Trump has no power to remove her from office, after he took the unprecedented step on August 25 of announcing he would fire her. Ahead of the release of the PCE figures, preliminary French and German inflation data are also due later in the day. European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers were divided on whether inflation was more likely to come in higher or lower than expected when they met in July, ECB accounts showed on Thursday, in a foretaste of a debate set to come to a head in the coming months. The ECB in July kept rates steady and it will probably do so again next month before discussions about further cuts likely resume in the autumn, especially if European economies weaken under U.S. tariffs, sources have told Reuters. Key developments that could influence markets on Friday: - U.S. PCE price index (July) - German preliminary CPI (August) - France preliminary CPI (August) https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-08-29/

2025-08-29 02:56

MUMBAI, Aug 29 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open largely unchanged on Friday, caught between expectations of the Reserve Bank of India stepping in to prevent further losses and the drag from persistent equity outflows and weak sentiment. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 87.60 to 87.64 range versus the U.S. dollar, compared with 87.6250 in the previous session. Sign up here. The rupee has largely struggled this week, with brief attempts at recovery quickly fizzling out on concerns over the broader economic impact of the additional U.S. tariffs. Despite that, the currency is down only 0.1% so far this week, with traders pointing to Reserve Bank of India's intervention that has kept it from sliding to an all-time low. Foreign outflows have accelerated over the past two sessions, with investors pulling out more than $1 billion from Indian equities weighing on the rupee. Local equities have dropped nearly 2% over that period. "The bias (on the dollar/rupee) is higher, no question. However, with the RBI expected to sit heavy at 87.80-88, there’s no definitive trade," a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. "All know what is the current line in the sand, so there is hesitation on how much room there is.” ASIA FX WEAK Asian currencies were mostly weaker on Friday, with the exception of the Chinese yuan. The dollar index was marginally higher. The focus is now on the release of the U.S. PCE price index data - the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation - for clues on the rate outlook. Traders are currently pricing in an 86% chance of a U.S. rate cut in September. Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday said he wants to start cutting interest rates next month and "fully expects" more rates cuts to follow to bring the Fed's policy rate near to a neutral setting. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 87.74; onshore one-month forward premium at 11 paise ** Dollar index inches up to 97.98 ** India June quarter GDP data due at 4:00 pm IST ** Brent crude futures down 0.8% at $68.1 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.21% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $644 mln worth of Indian shares on Aug. 26 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $24.5 mln worth of Indian bonds on Aug. 26 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/tariff-fallout-equity-outflows-weigh-indian-rupee-while-rbi-holds-line-2025-08-29/

2025-08-28 23:59

HOUSTON, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Miner Gold Reserve (GRZ.V) , opens new tab said on Thursday that its subsidiary Dalinar Energy submitted an improved bid for the parent of refiner Citgo Petroleum in a court-organized auction of shares, whose winner is expected to be decided next month. The company "has materially increased its proposed purchase price, arranged for additional financial support, and increased the certainty of its bid in non-economic ways," it said in a release. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gold-reserve-says-it-submitted-improved-bid-citgo-petroleums-parent-2025-08-28/

2025-08-28 23:57

Waller supports 25 bps cut at September meeting Anticipates additional rate cuts over next 3-6 months Sees labor market weakening, inflation stable Aug 28 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday said he wants to start cutting U.S. interest rates next month and "fully expects" more rates cuts to follow to bring the Fed's policy rate closer to a neutral setting, stepping up his call to lower short-term borrowing costs. "Based on what I know today, I would support a 25 basis point cut" at the upcoming September 16-17 meeting of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, he told the Economic Club of Miami. Sign up here. "While there are signs of a weakening labor market, I worry that conditions could deteriorate further and quite rapidly, and I think it is important that the FOMC not wait until such a deterioration is under way and risk falling behind the curve in setting appropriate monetary policy." Waller said he did not think the Fed would need to cut rates more than a quarter point next month, though he said that view could change if the Labor Department's August jobs report, due out next Friday, points to a substantially weakening economy, and inflation remains well-contained. However, he said "the time has come to ease monetary policy and move it to a more neutral stance," which he said was around 3%, some 1.25 to 1.50 percent points below the current policy rate range of 4.25%-4.50%. "I don't believe that policy has fallen substantially behind the curve, but one way to signal that I don't intend to allow that happen is to talk about where we go after September," he said. "As I stand here today, I anticipate additional cuts over the next three to six months, and the pace of rate cuts will be driven by the incoming data." Answering questions after his prepared speech, Waller said that means "it could be a sequence of cuts; it may be a couple, then you may want to pause...we know we want to head towards neutral; it's just a question how fast we get there." Any upward price pressures from tariffs should peak by the end of this year or early next, he said. "I fully expect more rates cuts as the labor market continues to soften; growth is probably still going to be slow in the second-half of the year," he said. "Because monetary policy tends to work with these kind of long lags, you don't want to wait." Waller and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman both dissented on July 30 from the Fed's decision to keep short-term borrowing costs unchanged, citing their worries about the labor market weakening. Both were appointed by U.S. President Donald Trump and are said to be under consideration as possible successors to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whom Trump has been publicly pressuring to lower interest rates dramatically. In another move widely seen as part of an effort to exert more control over the Fed, Trump earlier this week announced he was firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook over what he said was possible mortgage fraud, a move Cook says is illegal and is suing to stop. The Fed did lower the policy rate by a full percentage point last year, starting in September before Trump was elected and continuing after his November election win. It has held rates steady this year, citing worries that Trump's higher tariffs could reignite inflation that is still running above the Fed's 2% goal. Powell last week appeared sympathetic to some of Waller's reasoning, noting a sharp downturn in job growth to a monthly average of just 35,000 since May, even while the unemployment rate remains a low 4.2%. Rising downside labor market risks, Powell said, may warrant "proceeding carefully" with a policy adjustment. Analysts and financial markets took those remarks as a strong indication that the Fed would cut rates in September and proceed gradually from there. Waller on Tuesday cited analysis by Fed staff showing that, apart from the temporary effect of tariffs, inflation is running close to the Fed's 2% goal. That, along with well-anchored longer-term inflation expectations and rising chances of an undesirable weakening in the labor market, means he feels even more strongly than in July that the Fed should be cutting rates now. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/feds-waller-sees-rate-cuts-over-next-3-6-months-starting-september-2025-08-28/