2025-08-28 19:33

Fed's Williams signals rate cut is possible Governor Cook sues President Trump Euro resilient despite prospect of French government collapse NEW YORK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened against major currencies on Thursday, as traders added to bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month after New York Fed chief John Williams signaled such a move was possible. The U.S. currency has been under renewed pressure from President Donald Trump's ramped-up campaign to exert more influence over monetary policy, and as he attempted to fire Lisa Cook, one of the Fed's governors. Sign up here. Cook filed a lawsuit on Thursday, claiming Trump has no power to remove her from office. Although the dollar did trim some of its losses after Thursday's data showed improvement in jobless claims and gross domestic product expanding slightly more than expected, it was still treading water in U.S. afternoon session as traders await other critical pieces of data. "It's not a picture of an economy that's about to weaken significantly," said Francesca Fornasari, head of currency solutions at Insight Investment. "Everything, ultimately, is going to hinge on what the Fed does, and non-farm payrolls. I suspect next week's number is going to be quite closely watched." The currency fell against the euro even after France's prime minister on Monday unexpectedly called a confidence vote for next month, which looks likely to result in the fall of his minority government. The euro was 0.43% higher at $1.1688. Sterling also rose 0.13% to $1.3516. Williams said in a CNBC interview on Wednesday that it was likely rates can fall at some point but policymakers must see what upcoming data indicate about the economy to decide if a cut at the Fed's September 16-17 meeting is appropriate. Key among data releases before that meeting are the PCE price index on Friday - the Fed's preferred inflation measure - and the monthly payrolls report a week later. Traders currently lay around 85% odds of a quarter-point rate cut next month, according to CME's FedWatch tool. "We're all pretty keenly focused on where is the labor market at the moment, and how is that going to feed into the Fed at a moment when it seems like they're at a transition point back towards the easing cycle," said Brian Daingerfield, head of G10 FX strategy, NatWest Markets. "The details of the non-farm payroll report, to me, feel like that's going to be the moment at which tips the balance in one way or the other." Trump's push to place hand-picked, dovish-leaning candidates on the central bank's decision-making committee also pulled short-term yields lower, even though his attack on Governor Cook could spark a protracted legal battle after she sued to keep her job. The dollar index , which gauges the currency against six major peers, was last trading down 0.34% at 97.830, following two days of declines. Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.40% to 146.815 yen. Japan's chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa canceled a trip to Washington at the last minute on Thursday, delaying an announcement of the details of Japan's $550 billion investment pledge in the United States as part of a tariff deal. A government spokesperson said the decision was taken after talks with the U.S. side revealed some points that need further discussion "at the administrative level". The dollar slipped to its lowest level against China's offshore yuan since November, last down 0.46% to 7.1190 yuan in offshore trading . https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dollar-weakens-september-fed-cut-bets-grow-2025-08-28/

2025-08-28 19:33

Crude rises as traders await Trump statement on Russia-Ukraine India oil imports from Russia set to rise in September Russian oil supplies through Druzhba pipeline restart NEW YORK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Thursday, bouncing off early losses after the White House said U.S. President Donald Trump was not happy when he learned that Russia attacked Ukraine with missiles and drones overnight. Brent crude futures settled up 57 cents, or 0.8%, at $68.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 45 cents, or 0.7%, to close at $64.60 a barrel. Sign up here. Russia hit Ukraine with deadly missiles and drone strikes early on Thursday, killing at least 21 people in Kyiv, city officials said. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military said it used drones to hit two Russian oil refineries overnight. Trump will make a statement on the situation later on Thursday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters. Both oil benchmarks were down about 1% earlier in the session, but turned positive after her comments. Traders are also watching for India's response to pressure from the U.S. to stop buying Russian oil, after Trump doubled tariffs on imports from India to as much as 50% on Wednesday. Russian oil exports to India are set to rise in September, dealers said, defying the U.S. pressure. Oil prices were under pressure earlier in the session as traders braced for lower fuel demand after the U.S. Labor Day long weekend. Crude oil supply is also set to rise due to an OPEC+ plan to raise September output by 547,000 barrels per day. Weaker demand and higher supply will cause oil inventories to rise, Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. "That will be weighing on energy futures across the spectrum as summer turns into fall, and as gasoline demand tapers off and refiners shift to the lower-priced winter grade product," they said. Further pressuring oil prices, Russian crude supplies to Hungary and Slovakia through the Druzhba pipeline have restarted after an outage caused by a Ukrainian attack in Russia last week, Hungarian oil company MOL and Slovakia's economy minister said on Thursday. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-settles-higher-traders-await-trump-statement-russia-ukraine-2025-08-28/

2025-08-28 19:21

NEW YORK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Mexico's 285,000 barrel-per-day Minatitlan refinery was in the process of restarting on Thursday, while the 340,000 bpd Olmeca refinery was still offline, sources told Reuters on Thursday. Both Minatitlan in Veracruz, one of Mexico's oldest refineries, and Olmeca in Tabasco, the country's newest, were knocked out of service on Monday after heavy rainfall caused power outages at the plants, the sources said. Sign up here. Minatitlan was coming back online on Thursday, one of the sources said. The Olmeca refinery, also called Dos Bocas, is expected to attempt to restart as soon as Thursday, the source said. However, the restart attempts will be conditional on the completion of damage assessment by crews on site, they noted. The sources requested anonymity to discuss confidential information. Pemex, Mexico's state energy company, did not respond to a request for comment. The Olmeca refinery, which is yet to reach full capacity, was forced to shut down all processing units on Monday after heavy rainfall directly impacted a compressor on the 94,000 bpd gasoline-producing unit, industry monitor IIR Energy confirmed on Wednesday. Market participants expect a prolonged outage at the plant could leave Mexico short of its immediate gasoline requirements, raising the country's demand for cargos from the United States, its largest fuel supplier. Mexico has long struggled to operate its aging refineries efficiently, and the plants face frequent outages while struggling to process the heavy crude that Pemex pumps. Latest official data showed Olmeca produced over 57,000 bpd of gasoline and about 77,000 bpd of diesel in July. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/mexicos-minatitlan-refinery-back-online-olmeca-still-down-sources-say-2025-08-28/

2025-08-28 19:01

Europe's cooperation crucial for significant easing of Russia sanctions US options include lifting oilfield service sanctions, releasing seized assets Europe holds key to lifting Russian oil import ban and SWIFT access WASHINGTON, Aug 28 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump could quickly lift some sanctions on Russia as a reward to Moscow if peace talks with Ukraine go well, but only Europe can take the bigger steps needed to significantly ease Russia’s cash crunch. Trump in recent days has renewed a threat to impose more sanctions and tariffs on Russia and buyers of its oil if there is no progress toward a peaceful settlement in the 3-1/2-year-long war in Ukraine. But if talks go well, he could begin to lift some of the punitive measures. Sign up here. Among Trump's options are releasing seized Russian assets, reopening U.S. lending to Russian banks and corporations, and allowing U.S. oil services companies to return to Russia’s far-flung oil and gas fields. Without Europe’s cooperation, however, those measures would have limited effect and the most damaging sanctions – including massive restrictions on Russia’s global oil trade, the lifeblood of its economy – would stay in place. Oil and gas revenue accounts for about a quarter of Russia's total federal budget proceeds. Revenues from the sector have fallen sharply, a painful outcome for Russia amid higher spending since launching its military campaign in Ukraine. "The U.S. unilaterally has far less to offer than the Europeans who have little reason to give Russia a break until they get a satisfactory resolution on Ukraine," said Craig Kennedy, an associate at Harvard University's Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. The European Union has stressed it intends to maintain pressure on Russia until Moscow ends the war. The biggest step Trump could take would be to ease Treasury Department sanctions restricting U.S. oilfield service companies from working in Russia, potentially enabling Russia to boost oil and gas production from some of its hardest-to-drill places, including in the Arctic. U.S. and Russian officials have discussed the possibility of Exxon Mobil XOM.N re-entering Russia’s Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project, Reuters previously reported, citing sources. Sakhalin-1 has to date not been directly designated under extensive U.S. sanctions on Russian energy. The officials also discussed the possibility of Russia purchasing U.S. equipment for its LNG projects, such as Arctic LNG 2, which is under sanctions, the sources said. Probably the quickest way to ease Russia's cash crunch, however, would be for Europe to lift a ban on imports of Russian seaborne oil into the region. Europe was the destination for nearly half of Russia's crude and petroleum product exports before the invasion of Ukraine, according to the International Energy Agency. Reopening that market would allow Russia to reduce the billions of dollars in shipping costs it pays to send crude oil by tanker to China and India - now Russia’s main buyers. But that's out of Washington's hands. Europe would need to cooperate in any decision to lift a price cap imposed on Russian oil trades, though the U.S. could theoretically undermine it by stopping its own enforcement activities. The cap, which the EU has agreed to tighten in September to $47.60 a barrel from $60 a barrel, is intended to limit Moscow’s revenues when oil markets are hot, without hindering global flows. FROZEN ASSETS The U.S. and Europe have the option of releasing Russian central bank assets held since the invasion, but here again, Europe has much more pull. The EU has about $230 billion of the assets, while the U.S. has identified about $5 billion of the Russian assets in its banking system, according to Axios. Returning those assets is one of the few moves Trump could take without Congress. It could be done in secret through licenses from the Treasury Department, details of which are not released to the public. "Releasing those funds would not go unnoticed by (Russian President Vladimir) Putin while likely avoiding any domestic attention," said Jeremy Paner, a partner at law firm Hughes Hubbard & Reed and former Treasury Department sanctions investigator. Europe also holds the cards when it comes to re-admitting Russian banks to the SWIFT global payments network, which is based in Brussels and under EU law. The West could open the taps on capital markets lending to Russian banks and corporations. But big U.S. banks would be unlikely to lend large sums without European counterparts doing the same, according to Kennedy. "Historically, European banks led the way in Russia, they have the expertise and the risk appetite," Kennedy said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trumps-options-ease-russia-sanctions-limited-compared-europes-2025-08-28/

2025-08-28 18:41

Authorities target multibillion-dollar schemes in fuel sector Operation Hidden Carbon involves 350 search warrants, 1 billion reais in assets blocked Brazil tax authority says funds concealed and shielded assets SAO PAULO/RIO DE JANEIRO/BRASILIA, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Brazilian police and tax officials carried out a series of raids early on Thursday across the country targeting multibillion-dollar money laundering and fraud schemes linked to organized crime in the fuel sector, authorities said. Multinational energy firms have struggled for years to root out organized crime from their distribution networks in Brazil, and the federal tax revenue service said this week's crackdown related to schemes involving more than 10 billion reais ($1.84 billion) in fuel imports and 52 billion reais in domestic fuel sales. Sign up here. It said 46 billion reais in illicit financial transactions linked to the schemes had moved through fintech companies from 2020 to 2024. "In coordinated actions involving the federal police, federal revenue service and state public prosecutors' offices, three simultaneous operations were launched in the financial and fuel sectors, involving 10 states," Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said in a post on X. Authorities served some 350 search warrants in states across the country and sought to block more than 1 billion reais in assets during the operation, known as Hidden Carbon, the revenue service said. Closed-end funds investigated by authorities held assets including a port terminal, four ethanol plants plus stakes in two others, a fleet of 1,600 trucks, and more than 100 properties, said Andrea Chaves, the revenue service deputy secretary for oversight. "Evidence identified by the tax authority indicates the funds were used to conceal and shield assets, and suggests fund managers were aware of and contributed to the scheme," she said. The criminal enterprises included the involvement of First Capital Command (PCC), a major organized crime gang, public prosecutors in Sao Paulo state said. Organized crime's infiltration of critical economic sectors from energy to finance in Brazil represents a dangerous escalation of risk, said Robert Muggah, cofounder of think tank Igarape Institute. "By capturing strategic assets and exploiting regulatory blind spots, the PCC and its allies are not only draining public revenues; they are undermining trust in the financial system and governance," Muggah said. LINKED COMPANIES Asset manager REAG Investimentos (REAG3.SA) , opens new tab was among the targets of the warrants, according to a court decision seen by Reuters. REAG said in a securities filing it was "fully cooperating with the competent authorities, providing the information and documents requested" as part of the "ongoing investigative procedure." The company's shares were down 13.3% on Thursday afternoon. Chemical firm GPC Quimica, owned by Dexxos Participacoes (DEXP3.SA) , opens new tab, was also named in a court document seen by Reuters. Dexxos "does not condone any illegal acts" and remains available to competent authorities to assist requests for information, it said in a statement. Brazil's Instituto Combustivel Legal (ICL), an industry group created to combat fuel fraud, expects volume of sales for major distributors to rise due to the operations. "The space they have in the market is expected to grow," Emerson Kapaz, ICL's chief executive, told Reuters. Shares of major distributors such as Ultrapar (UGPA3.SA) , opens new tab, Raizen (RAIZ4.SA) , opens new tab and Vibra (VBBR3.SA) , opens new tab jumped after news of the operation became public. In a separate statement, the federal police said they had simultaneously launched the "Quasar" and "Tank" operations, also aimed at cracking down on schemes that allegedly moved more than 23 billion reais in the fuel sector. ($1 = 5.4212 reais) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/brazil-carries-out-raids-crackdown-organized-crime-fuel-sector-2025-08-28/

2025-08-28 18:40

Dollar lower as focus turns to Fed policy easing Nvidia revenue forecast higher than expectations but not a blowout US economic data positive for market NEW YORK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Major U.S. stock indexes were slightly higher on Thursday even as Nvidia shares slipped amid uncertainty over its China business, while the dollar weakened against the euro and yen as traders anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts soon. Nvidia's shares (NVDA.O) , opens new tab were down 0.9% as questions around the Sino-U.S. trade war clouded a better-than-expected revenue forecast from the chip designer, released after Wednesday's market close. Nvidia's outlook was above Wall Street expectations but disappointed some investors accustomed to blowout results. Sign up here. But the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were all higher, and an index of semiconductor stocks (.SOX) , opens new tab was up 0.6%. Investors were mostly breathing a sigh of relief over Nvidia's results and guidance, said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia. While there's some confusion over what will happen with China, Nvidia "didn't say anything that pointed to a significant slowdown in anything, so that took away a major risk or overhang this morning," he said. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang also dismissed concern about an end to a spending boom on AI chips and said opportunities will expand over the next five years. Another plus for stocks was economic data, Tuz said. The day's data showed the U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the second quarter, in part driven by business investment in intellectual property such as AI. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 20.59 points, or 0.05%, to 45,585.82, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 16.68 points, or 0.26%, to 6,498.08 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab rose 118.63 points, or 0.55%, to 21,708.53. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab rose 3.33 points, or 0.35%, to 956.37. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index fell 0.2%. Concerns over France's fiscal path are likely to stay in focus for European markets following Prime Minister Francois Bayrou's gamble to win backing for his deeply unpopular debt-reduction plan via a confidence vote next month. The euro was up 0.41% at $1.1685. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar weakened 0.37% to 146.84. Investors are keen to find out more about prospects for interest rate cuts ahead of the Federal Reserve's September 16-17 policy meeting. On Wednesday, New York Fed President John Williams said it is likely interest rates can fall at some point but policymakers will need to see what upcoming data indicate about the economy to decide if it's appropriate to make a cut at the September meeting. Traders currently are pricing in roughly 87% odds of a quarter-point rate cut in September, according to CME's FedWatch tool. In total, they see 137 basis points of cuts by the end of 2026. Also key this week will be a report Friday on U.S. personal consumption expenditures - the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Investors were still digesting news on Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Cook filed a lawsuit on Thursday claiming U.S. President Donald Trump has no power to remove her from office, setting up a legal battle that could reset long-established norms for the U.S. central bank's independence. Interest rate-sensitive two-year yields rose but held near an almost four-month low as traders weighed prospects for Fed rate cuts. The two-year note yield was last up 2.2 basis points at 3.645%. The benchmark 10-year note fell 2.3 basis points to 4.215%. Oil and gold prices rose. U.S. crude rose 0.47% to $64.44 a barrel and Brent rose to $68.38 per barrel, up 0.48% on the day. Spot gold rose 0.62% to $3,418.00 an ounce. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-6-2025-08-28/