2025-08-25 12:02

Nikkei gains, China blue chips hit three-year top Market implies 84% chance of Fed rate cut in Sept Dollar and yields steady after Friday's fall LONDON, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Euphoria over the September prospect of a U.S. interest rate cut petered out on Monday, sending U.S. share futures lower during pre-market trading as investors refocused on the broader economic picture. S&P 500 inched 0.2% lower and Nasdaq futures fell 0.3% pointing towards a lower Wall Street open, as of 1258 BST. Sign up here. Powell's dovish change of course has prompted futures to price in an 84% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in September, and at least 100 basis points of easing to 3.25-3.5% by the middle of next year. MSCI's broadest index of world shares (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab rose 0.1% and held near Friday's record highs, while in Asia Chinese blue chips closed up over 2% at their highest level since 2022 (.CSI300) , opens new tab and Japan's Nikkei shut 0.4% higher. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index was also 0.2% lower, dragged down by Europe's renewable stocks after the U.S. government ordered Denmark's Orsted (ORSTED.CO) , opens new tab to halt construction of an offshore wind project near Rhode Island. The move, deepening woes for the industry and putting Orsted's plans to raise capital at risk, sent the company's share price down around a record 17%. London markets were closed for a holiday, thinning overall trading volumes in Europe. Shares in Amsterdam-listed JDE Peet's (JDEP.AS) , opens new tab meanwhile surged roughly 17% after Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP.O) , opens new tab agreed a deal to buy the company for 15.7 billion euros ($18.36 billion), a 20% premium to Friday's closing price. The European Central Bank is expected to hold rates unchanged in September, sources told Reuters at the weekend. Discussions about further cuts may resume in the autumn if the economy weakens. "As an investor, you lose an enemy whenever the Federal Reserve pivots because it gives valuations room to become ever more expensive," said Florian Ielpo, Lombard Odier Investment Managers' head of multi-assets. But looking at inventory data for manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers, Lombard Odier's Ielpo said that while manufacturers had stocked up amid tariff announcements, retailers held little inventory further down the economic food chain. Companies returning to replenish items from now will discover the true costs of U.S. tariffs, which will likely turn up in third-quarter results, said Ielpo. Switzerland soon hopes to finalise a new business offer for Washington to ease its tariff burden, which will likely include more defence spending and greater access for U.S. energy interests, two people familiar with the matter said. Switzerland was stunned when U.S. President Donald Trump this month hit it with 39% tariff rates, some of the highest worldwide. The Swiss franc crept up 0.1% against a basket of currencies. In broader currency markets, the dollar gained around 0.3% to 147.31 yen after falling 1% on Friday. The euro lost 0.2% to $1.1705 , having bounced from a trough of $1.1583 on Friday. The dollar ticked higher , , flattering the outlook for corporate earnings, although increased rate-cut bets also imply policymakers now see more danger of a downturn in employment and the economy. Euro zone bond yields rose, reversing their fall from late Friday as traders reassessed that Fed-driven move and its impact on Europe. U.S. cash treasuries did not trade in London on Monday due to the bank holiday. Market optimism will be tested by a reading on U.S. personal consumption prices on Friday that is expected to show core inflation creeping up to its highest since late 2023 at 2.9%. Any upside surprise to inflation would also challenge the rally in longer-dated Treasuries, especially given that a whopping $183 billion in new debt is being sold this week. The influential head of the New York Fed, John Williams, is due to speak later on Monday, and markets will be keen to hear whether he shares Powell's outlook on policy. NVIDIA WATCH Focus is turning to Nvidia's (NVDA.O) , opens new tab results on Wednesday, when it is forecast to announce a 48% rise in earnings per share on revenue of $45.9 billion for its second fiscal quarter. Analysts will be keen to hear more on the outlook for shipments to China and details of the deal with President Donald Trump to pay the U.S. government 15% of the revenue from sales of some advanced chips in the Asian giant. Trump said on Friday the U.S. would also purchase a 9.9% stake in Intel (INTC.O) , opens new tab for $8.9 billion, or $20.47 per share, which represents a discount of about $4 from Intel's closing share price of $24.80. Gold steadied as the dollar strengthened, and was last slightly lower at $3,368 an ounce after jumping 1% late last week. Oil prices were further supported by the lack of progress on talks between Russia and Ukraine, which keeps sanctions on Russian supplies. Brent rose 43 cents to $68.16 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 25 cents to $64.13 per barrel. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-5-2025-08-25/

2025-08-25 12:00

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Aug 25 (Reuters) - China's imports of seaborne thermal coal are poised to climb to the most this year in August while those of fellow top buyer India slump to a 3 1/2-year low. The diverging trends in the world's two biggest importers of the fuel - used mainly to generate electricity - largely reflect the interplay in their domestic markets of coal production and the rising deployment of renewable energy. Sign up here. China's seaborne imports of thermal coal are estimated to rise to 25.63 million metric tons in August, up from 22.77 million in July and the most since December last year, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. Imports from top thermal coal exporter Indonesia are on track to reach a five-month high of 16.13 million tons, while those from second-ranked Australia are expected to rise for a third consecutive month to 5.84 million. The increase in China's imports of seaborne thermal coal at first glance appears incongruous with official data showing thermal power generation easing 1.3% over the January-to-July period, amid rising hydropower and renewable output. But thermal power generation, which in China is overwhelmingly coal-fired with only a small contribution from natural gas, rose 4.3% in July from the same month a year earlier, according to data released on August 15. At the same time, China's domestic coal production was slipping with July output of 380.99 million tons being down 3.8% from the same month last year and the lowest since April 2024. The higher thermal generation and lower coal output was enough to spark buying interest from China, while low prices for seaborne thermal coal also helped boost demand for imports. Indonesian coal with an energy content of 4,200 kilocalories per kilogram (kcal/kg) , as assessed by commodity price reporting agency Argus, dropped to a four-year low of $40.45 a ton in the week to July 4. The stronger buying interest from China has led to a mild recovery in the price, which rose to a two-month high of $43.33 a ton in the week to August 22. A similar dynamic is underway in the main grade of Australian coal sought by China, which has an energy content of 5,500 kcal/kg . This grade ended at a five-month high of $71.92 a ton in the week to August 22, having risen 9.4% from a four-year low of $65.72 in the week ended June 6. INDIA IMPORTS SLIP The recent rise in prices would appear to be almost entirely a China-led factor, as India's imports of thermal coal have been weakening. August arrivals are forecast by Kpler to come in at 9.74 million tons, down from 11.99 million in July and the lowest since February 2023. They are also down almost by half from May's 17.96 million tons, which was the peak so far this year. The slump in India's thermal coal imports comes as coal's share in India's electricity dropped to a five-year low in July, and was down 4.2% from the same month a year earlier, according to an analysis of data from federal grid regulator Grid-India. At the same time, output from hydropower rose 22.4% and renewables increased by 14.4%, which was more than enough to cover the 1.8% growth in overall power generation. India is also increasing domestic coal output as more private miners start to operate and sell fuel with analysts expecting production in the fiscal year that started on April 1 to rise to around 1.15 billion tons, eclipsing the record of 1.05 billion in the prior fiscal year. What are the key implications of the contrasting fortunes of seaborne thermal coal imports in China and India in recent months? The short-term takeaway is that domestic coal production remains key to demand and prices in the seaborne market, and that China is still the main driver. The longer-term implication is that both China and India are installing renewable generation capacity at rapid rates while also increasing domestic coal output. This makes it more likely that over time their demand for imported thermal coal will trend lower, even allowing for periods of heightened demand when domestic supplies dip or coal-fired generation increases. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-seaborne-thermal-coal-imports-jump-indias-stumble-2025-08-25/

2025-08-25 11:49

Aug 25 (Reuters) - Russian oil supplies to Slovakia through the Druzhba pipeline, interrupted last Thursday after a Ukrainian attack in Russia, may resume as soon as Monday under the best-case scenario, Slovak Economy Minister Denisa Sakova said. Russia and Ukraine have stepped up attacks on each other's energy infrastructure, hitting Ukrainian domestic heating supplies, Russia's Druzhba pipeline and other facilities, over the past few weeks. Sign up here. Slovakia and Hungary said on Friday that their supplies of Russian oil could be suspended for at least five days after a Ukrainian strike on a facility in Russia. "According to the latest information, this is an outage for four-five days," Sakova said in an emailed response to Reuters questions. "We can, in an optimum case, expect resumption of supplies to Slovakia already on Monday." She said supplies to customers were not under threat, given the country's 90-day reserves of oil and oil products. The European Union reduced energy supplies from Russia after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and is seeking to phase out Russian oil and gas by the end of 2027. Slovakia and Hungary have maintained relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and opposed sanctions against Russia that Ukraine says are vital to make Moscow drop war demands it terms unacceptable. They also oppose the phase-out of Russian energy supplies via the Druzhba pipeline, saying they cannot rely on an alternative pipeline from Croatia's Adriatic coast. Slovakia and Hungary called on the European Commission on Friday to help guarantee security of supplies. A Commission spokesperson said on Monday the Commission was in touch with member states to assess the situation, adding that supply security was a priority. The Ukrainian strike on Thursday was the second time last week that Russian oil supplies have been cut to Hungary and Slovakia. Ukraine's military said late on Thursday it had struck the Unecha oil pumping station, a critical part of the Europe-bound pipeline. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-supplies-slovakia-may-resume-soon-today-slovak-minister-says-2025-08-25/

2025-08-25 11:42

Aug 25 (Reuters) - U.S. oil and gas producer Crescent Energy will buy smaller peer Vital Energy in an all-stock transaction valued at $3.1 billion, including debt, Crescent said on Monday. The deal gives Crescent a significant foothold in the Permian shale basin of Texas and New Mexico. As the most productive U.S. oilfield, it continues to draw investor interest despite a broader slowdown in dealmaking activity in the sector. Sign up here. Greater scale should also make the company more attractive to investors, analysts said. "This sector has been mostly out of favor for many years, and scale gets you relevance with investors," said Tim Rezvan, analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets. "Now, (Crescent) becomes a much more prominent company." Reuters first reported on Friday that the companies were in advanced talks. The transaction calls for Vital shareholders to get 1.9062 shares of Crescent common stock for each of their shares, making the offer worth $18.95 per share, a 20% premium to Vital's closing share price on Friday. However, Crescent's stock fell more than 4.8% to $9.47 on Monday. At that level, the deal would net Vital shareholders around $18.05 per share, while Vital's shares were last up over 15.5% to $18.24. The offer hardly feels like a win for Vital, Capital One Securities analysts said in a note, highlighting a nearly 50% slump in the company's stock so far this year. "There's room for higher valued competitors with nearby assets to outbid Crescent with more obvious synergies and strategic value," said Josh Young, chief investment officer at Bison Interests, which owns shares of Vital. Young did not disclose the size of his ownership. The deal, expected to close by the end of 2025, will generate $90 million to $100 million in immediate annual cost savings and will boost cash flow, Crescent said. Crescent, which will assume about $2.3 billion of Vital's debt, has lined up a $1 billion pipeline of non-core asset sales to help improve the balance sheet, it said. Going forward, Crescent's core focus areas are likely to be the Permian basin, the Eagle Ford basin of south Texas and the Uinta basin of Utah, so assets outside those areas should be considered potential divestments, Enverus analyst Andrew Dittmar said. Crescent shareholders will own about 77% of the combined company and Vital stockholders will own the rest, Crescent said. https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/crescent-energy-acquire-vital-energy-31-billion-shale-deal-2025-08-25/

2025-08-25 11:38

Gold hit two-week peak on Friday Powell's comments point to possible Sept rate cut US dollar rises from four-week low Aug 25 (Reuters) - Gold ticked down on Monday as the dollar firmed, easing from a two-week high hit in the previous session after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell bolstered bets on interest rate cuts. Spot gold inched down 0.1% at $3,367.51 per ounce, as of 1127 GMT, after touching its highest since August 11 on Friday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery eased 0.2% to $3,412.30. Sign up here. The dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab was up 0.2%, making gold more expensive for other currency holders. Powell on Friday signalled a possible rate cut at the Fed's meeting next month, saying that risks to the job market were rising but inflation remained a threat, and that a decision wasn't set in stone. "Powell only indicated in my view a 25-bps cut for September, so there is some adjustment based on that, supporting the dollar and weighing on gold," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Markets are now pricing in an 87% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the September policy meeting - compared to nearly 90% after Powell's comments on Friday - and a cumulative reduction of 48 basis points by this year-end, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. "I expect spot gold to post fresh record highs above $3,500, assuming the Fed doesn't deviate from its easing path, while the precious metal should also enjoy ample support from sustained central bank purchases," said Han Tan, chief market analyst at investment trading platform Nemo.Money. Investors are awaiting U.S. personal consumption prices data on Friday that are expected to show core inflation creeping up to its highest since late 2023 at 2.9%. Gold tends to appreciate in a low-interest-rate environment, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Elsewhere, spot silver lost 0.3% to $38.72 per ounce, platinum fell 1.1% to $1,346.21 and palladium was down 1% at $1,115.07. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/gold-inches-down-two-week-high-dollar-strength-2025-08-25/

2025-08-25 11:31

NEW DELHI, Aug 25 (Reuters) - India shared a warning on possible cross-border flooding with neighbour Pakistan on "humanitarian grounds" and not under the water-sharing Indus Waters Treaty between the old enemies, an Indian government source told Reuters on Monday. India's high commission in Islamabad shared the warning on Sunday, the source said, following heavy rains in the Jammu and Kashmir region bordering Pakistan. India's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Sign up here. The source declined to be named as they are not authorised to speak to the media. India put the Indus treaty in "abeyance" in April after linking a deadly attack on Hindu tourists in Kashmir to Pakistan. The tensions escalated in May to the worst military clash between the nuclear-armed rivals in decades. Under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, three rivers that flow westwards from India were awarded to Pakistan, with India getting three eastern-flowing rivers. Pakistan fears India could choke its main water supply, putting at risk most of its agriculture and hydro-power. Floods in Jammu and Kashmir killed at least 60 people this month. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/land-use-biodiversity/india-shares-flood-warning-with-foe-pakistan-humanitarian-grounds-says-source-2025-08-25/