2025-08-22 20:32

Powell hints at September rate cut on labor market concerns Speech cements market expectations of looser policy ahead Treasury yields drop, stocks extend gains NEW YORK, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Investors cheered Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole address, which gave a green light to buy risky assets on the hope the central bank is ready to cut rates, but took his dovish message with a note of caution as they see a risk of stagflation ahead and worry markets are over-optimistic. In his final address as Fed chair at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, economic symposium, Powell hinted at a September interest rate cut but stopped short of committing, striking a careful balance between mounting job-market risks and lingering inflation worries. Sign up here. The speech on Friday came amid mounting pressure from the White House to ease monetary policy, which has raised market concerns that political influence will lead the U.S. central bank to become too aggressive in cutting rates in the future. "Powell definitely locked in that September rate cut and the certainty of that is rippling in a positive way across global markets," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. "This still leaves, what happens after September? And I think that's where the markets are getting ahead of themselves," he said. The Jackson Hole address followed a weak July jobs report and significant downward revisions to earlier job figures that fueled bets the U.S. central bank will cut interest rates later this year from the current 4.25%-4.5% range. Those expectations, however, lost steam in recent weeks as a surge in wholesale prices in July fueled concerns that stubbornly high inflation would limit the Fed's ability to come to the market's rescue with hefty rate cuts. "People have been increasingly worried that we're kind of heading into a stagflationary story," said Drew Matus, chief market strategist at Metlife Investment Management, referring to a worrying mix of sluggish growth and relentless inflation. Matus added that investors were expecting inflation would "stick around for a little bit," but said the real question remains over how much the economy can grow. "I think we're going to get some growth, but it's not going to feel great," said Matus. Investors also noted that more data on inflation and the labor market are due ahead of the Fed's next meeting and could factor into rate decisions, potentially stalling any rally. "Looking over the next couple months, rate cuts alone won't be enough to sustain strength in stocks," said Tom Graff, chief investment officer at Facet. "If in fact the economy is stalling and the labor market continues to deteriorate, there are risks to this equity market rally.” RATE CUT BETS Others in the market said optimism was warranted. "If the Fed is going to move here and cut rates gradually and take their foot off the brake a little bit for the economy, I think it makes perfect sense that we're seeing a rebound," said Paul Eitelman, global chief investment strategist at Russell Investments. Rates futures traders assigned a 70% probability to a quarter-point interest rate cut in September ahead of Powell's speech. Late on Friday that stood at 80%, LSEG data showed. Rate-sensitive two-year U.S. Treasury yields dropped by about 10 basis points to 3.69%. Benchmark 10-year yields were down nearly eight basis points to 4.26%. Yields move inversely to prices. Wall Street's main indexes ended higher on Friday, with the blue-chip Dow hitting a record closing high. The S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab gained 1.47% on the day, hovering near record high levels. Rate-sensitive stocks gained. Small caps, which typically rely on borrowing to fund their growth, surged, with the small-cap Russell 2000 (.RUT) , opens new tab rising 3.8%. Homebuilding shares also jumped, with the PHLX housing index (.HGX) , opens new tab up 4.6%. Powell's comments are "music to the market's ears," said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones in St. Louis. "The fact that we are still looking for easing ahead provides some comfort that at least the elevated (equity) valuations and expectations are supported by the fact that we're looking at looser policy," he said. FED INDEPENDENCE CONCERNS Powell's address, however, sent the dollar sharply lower on concerns over a slowing economy, with worries around the independence of the Federal Reserve compounding the selloff. Lower interest rates can make the dollar less attractive to investors who may seek better returns in other currencies, reducing the demand for the greenback. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last down 1%. "Rate differentials are tilting against the dollar," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, adding traders were positioning for "asymmetric upside outside the U.S." The speech, Powell's final one as chair with his term ending in May, comes after relentless pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump on Powell to cut interest rates. Powell reiterated on Friday that Fed policy will remain strictly data-driven, never deviating from that approach. The pressures, however, ratcheted up earlier this week after Trump urged Fed Governor Lisa Cook to resign, a move that could allow him to appoint more dovish members to the Fed's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. On Friday, Trump said he would fire Cook if she doesn't resign following allegations over her mortgage loans. "Trump's words on Cook ... are once again raising concerns over the Fed's independence," said Helen Given, director of trading, Monex USA, Washington. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/powell-fires-up-markets-some-investors-see-reason-caution-2025-08-22/

2025-08-22 20:28

LONDON, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Sona Asset Management is set to hire David Hill as its new chief financial officer, a source close to the matter told Reuters on Friday. Hill will likely join the investment firm from his CFO role at the $13.5 hedge fund Cheyne Capital, the person said. He brings over 20 years of experience, including 12 years in CFO roles, said the source. Sign up here. Sona Asset Management's chief financial officer Iain Colquhoun has left the firm, according to an email seen by Reuters on Friday. An email to Colquhoun's work address bounced back saying he no longer works for the firm and Reuters did not immediately respond to LinkedIn request. Hill will start his role at Sona Asset Management in October, the source said. He did not immediately respond to a request for comment on LinkedIn. A representative for Cheyne Capital did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Sona Asset Management, which oversees $13.6 billion, invests in bonds, as well as private credit and collateralised loan obligations, taking both long and short positions. A short trade is a bet that an asset will lose value. At Cheyne Capital, Hill was responsible for management accounting, budgeting, and financial reporting. He also served on the executive committee, overseeing strategy and planning, the source said. Before his job at Cheyne, he held roles as head of finance and later CFO at Finisterre Capital. Sona's departing CFO, Colquhoun, joined the hedge fund manager in June 2018, bringing with him 21 years of experience in fund operations, finance, and infrastructure, according to the firm's website. Last year, Sona Asset Management's Credit Master Fund returned 18.8%, benefiting from a surge in European companies needing to refinance their debt, Reuters previously reported. The firm's collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) platform made the top quartile of CLOs ranked by Deutsche Bank in 2024. These did not have specific annual percentage returns mentioned in the letter. During 2025, Sona Asset Management's assets under management have grown over $3 billion. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/sona-poised-hire-cheynes-hill-cfo-136-billion-manager-source-says-2025-08-22/

2025-08-22 20:03

MOSCOW, Aug 22 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that there was "light at the end of the tunnel" in Russia-U.S. relations and that the two countries were discussing joint projects in the Arctic and Alaska. The Russian president, answering questions during a visit to a nuclear research centre, said he was sure that U.S. President Donald Trump's leadership qualities would help in restoring relations from recent lows. Sign up here. "With the arrival of President Trump, I think that a light at the end of the tunnel has finally loomed. And now we had a very good, meaningful and frank meeting in Alaska," Putin said, referring to last week's summit. "The next steps now depend on the leadership of the United States, but I am confident that the leadership qualities of the current president, President Trump, are a good guarantee that relations will be restored." His comments signalled Russia's optimism that it can mend relations with the U.S. and strike business deals, despite the lack of clear progress towards ending the Ukraine conflict at his August 15 summit with Trump. Putin did not give details of possible U.S.-Russia cooperation in the Arctic but said there were "huge, huge" mineral reserves in the region and noted that Russian liquefied natural gas company Novatek was already operating there. "We are discussing, by the way, with American partners the possibility of working together in this area. And not only in our Arctic zone, but also in Alaska. And at the same time, the technologies that we possess, today no one but us possesses. And this is of interest to our partners, including those from the States," he said. Both Russia and the United States have said they see enormous economic opportunities if they can normalise relations after ties plunged to a post-Cold War low because of the war in Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-sees-light-end-tunnel-russia-us-ties-cooperation-arctic-alaska-2025-08-22/

2025-08-22 19:48

Aug 22 (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Energy said on Friday it had granted Energy Transfer (ET.N) , opens new tab additional time to start exports from the Lake Charles LNG facility under its non-Free Trade Agreement export permit. "On the heels of President Trump’s historic trade negotiations, demand for secure, reliable American LNG is surging," Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a press release announcing the extension. Sign up here. Once fully constructed, the Lake Charles LNG project will be capable of exporting up to 2.33 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas as LNG, according to the release. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-dept-energy-grants-lake-charles-lng-more-time-start-exports-2025-08-22/

2025-08-22 19:20

鲍威尔暗示9月降息，但未做出承诺 交易员目前认为美联储下月降息的几率为 85% 路透纽约8月22日 - 美元周五普遍大跌，此前美联储主席鲍威尔指出可能在9月会议上降息但未做出承诺。 衡量美元兑一篮子货币（包括日圆和欧元）汇率的美元指数 日内下跌 0.96%，报 97.66 点，鲍威尔发表讲话前该指数交投于 98.7 点附近。 Sign up here. 欧元 上涨1.06%，报1.1728美元，最高触及1.1742美元，为7月28日以来最高。美元兑日圆 下跌1.08%，至146.77。 "虽然劳动力市场似乎处于平衡状态，但这是一种奇怪的平衡，是由于工人的供需两方面都明显放缓造成的，"鲍威尔说："这种不寻常的情况表明，就业的下行风险正在上升。" 鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克森霍尔举行的美联储年度会议上对与会的国际经济学家和政策制定者说："如果这些风险变为现实，它们可能会迅速发生。" 多伦多 Corpay 首席市场策略师Karl Schamotta说，鲍威尔的讲话比市场预期的要鸽派得多。 他说："美元正在暴跌，9月降息的几率正在上升，市场参与者显然在为即将到来的更多宽松政策做准备。" 据芝商所的FedWatch工具显示，交易商目前对美联储在9月16-17日政策会议上降息几率的定价为85%，高于上周五早些时候的72%。他们还将年底前降息的预期幅度从 48 个基点提高到 54 个基点。 “现在，阻止9月降息的举证责任显然落在了数据身上，”美国银行的经济学家在周五的一份报告中表示。 在7月份的就业报告意外疲软之后，交易员们一直在提高对9月份降息的预期。消费者物价数据显示，到目前为止，关税对通胀的影响有限。 但高于预期的生产者价格通胀和其他一些经济数据，包括强劲的8月商业活动调查，使他们缓和了看法。 现在，劳动力市场数据有望成为美联储未来政策的主要驱动力。 Schamotta说："他的真正意思是，他们正在为劳动力市场状况的拐点做好准备，美联储任务的第二部分在确定政策设定方面突然变得更加重要。" 周五，美元兑欧元和日圆创下自8月1日7月份就业报告公布以来的最大单日跌幅。 美国总统特朗普表示他可能寻求解雇美联储理事库克后，市场对美联储的独立性感到担忧，美元本周也不时因此承压。 特朗普周五表示，如果库克不辞职，他将解雇她，此前他曾在周三呼吁库克辞职，理由是有关她在密歇根州和佐治亚州持有抵押贷款的指控。 Money USA的全球汇市交易员Helen Given表示："特朗普对库克的言论......再次引发了人们对美联储独立性的担忧，因为越来越清楚的是，政府可能希望按照自己的意愿重塑美联储。" 特朗普曾多次批评鲍威尔在降息方面过于迟缓，交易员们预计，当鲍威尔的任期于5月结束时，他将任命一位更加鸽派的人取代鲍威尔。 其他货币方面，英镑 上涨0.86%，至1.3527美元。澳元兑美元 升 1.14%，至 0.6492 美元。 在加密货币方面，比特币 上涨 4.10%，至 117,035 美元。(完) https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/9-2025-08-22/

2025-08-22 19:06

Potential stronger sanctions against Russia back in focus Prices also supported by US crude stocks drawdown German economic data raises concerns over demand HOUSTON - Aug 22 (Reuters) - Oil prices steadied on Friday amid uncertainty surrounding a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, with prices gaining on the week for the first time in three weeks. Brent crude futures settled up 6 cents or 0.09% to $67.73. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled up 14 cents or 0.22% to $63.66. Sign up here. Both contracts gained more than 1% in the previous session. Brent gained 2.9% this week while WTI rose 1.4%. "Everyone is waiting for President Trump's next step," said UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "Over the coming days, it seems nothing will happen," he added. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he will see if Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will work together in ending Russia's war in Ukraine. "There is still uncertainty around the potential ceasefire, the negotiations are not going as quick as the market would have hoped," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. The 3-1/2-year war continued unabated this week as Russia launched an air attack on Thursday near Ukraine's border with the European Union, and Ukraine said it hit a Russian oil refinery and the Unecha oil pumping station, a critical part of Russia's Europe-bound Druzhba oil pipeline. Russian oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia could be suspended for at least five days. Trump is seeking to arrange a summit between Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Zelenskiy as part of efforts to broker a peace deal for Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said there is no agenda for a potential summit between Putin and Zelenskiy, accusing Zelenskiy of saying "no to everything". The less likely a ceasefire looks, the more likely the risk of tougher U.S. sanctions on Russia, ING analysts said in a client note on Friday. Meanwhile, U.S. and European planners have presented military options to their national security advisers after the first in-person meeting between the U.S. and Russian leaders since Russia invaded Ukraine. Estonia is ready to participate in a peacekeeping operation in Ukraine with a force of up to one battalion, the Baltic country's Prime Minister Kristen Michal said at a press conference with his Finnish counterpart in Tallinn on Friday. Putin demanded that Ukraine give up all of the eastern Donbas region, renounce NATO ambitions and keep Western troops out of the country, sources told Reuters. Trump pledged to protect Ukraine under any war-ending deal and Zelenskiy dismissed the idea of withdrawing from internationally recognised Ukrainian land. LARGER THAN EXPECTED FALL IN US OIL STOCKS Oil prices were also supported by a larger-than-expected drawdown from U.S. crude stockpiles in the past week, indicating strong demand. Stocks fell by 6 million barrels in the week ended August 15, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Analysts had expected a draw of 1.8 million barrels. Meanwhile, U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the fourth time in five weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes (BKR.O) , opens new tab said in its closely followed report on Friday. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by one to 538 in the week to August 22, the lowest since mid-July. Weak economic data from Germany on Friday partially offset the stocks draw, showing that Europe's largest economy shrank by 0.3% , opens new tab in the second quarter, raising concerns over oil demand. Investors were also looking to the Jackson Hole economic conference in Wyoming for signals of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday pointed to a possible interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank's meeting next month but stopped short of committing to it, in remarks acknowledging both the growing risks to the job market and the ongoing threat of higher inflation. Lower interest rates can stimulate economic growth and increase oil demand, potentially boosting prices. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-rise-make-weekly-gains-ukraine-peace-process-stalls-2025-08-22/