2025-08-21 04:10

TOKYO, Aug 21 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan will raise its key interest rate by at least 25 basis points again later this year, according to nearly two-thirds of economists in a Reuters poll, up from just over half a month ago. While news of recent weakness in the U.S. job market has renewed bets for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month, 70% of analysts in the poll said that alone won't delay the Japanese central bank's push for slightly tighter monetary conditions. Sign up here. Although the BOJ has been under pressure to raise rates after more than three years of consumer inflation exceeding its 2% target, it has been wary of doing so, partly due to concerns about U.S. tariffs damaging economic growth. In the August 12-19 poll, a 92% majority of economists, 67 of 73, forecast no change to interest rates at the BOJ's next policy meeting in mid-September. However, 63%, 45 of 71, expect the central bank to raise base borrowing costs to at least 0.75% from 0.50% next quarter, an increase from 54% in last month's poll. Of 40 economists who specified a month for when the BOJ will next hike rates, October was the top choice at 38%, followed by 30% for January next year and 18% this December. "In October, the BOJ would be able to respond after assessing the direction of U.S. monetary policy and political developments in Japan," said Hiroshi Namioka, chief strategist at T&D Asset Management. The BOJ could make decisions more easily in October, since its quarterly outlook report will be published that month and the policy meeting will take place after the branch managers' meeting, Namioka said. Financial markets still are pricing in one further quarter-point BOJ interest rate hike by year-end . Over three-quarters of economists who answered an extra question, 22 of 29, said they either strongly or somewhat approved of the Japan-U.S. trade deal. Separately, more than two-thirds, 21 of 31, said they were concerned about pressure to expand fiscal spending after opposition parties calling for a reduction in consumption tax made gains in last month's upper house election. Along with the results of last year's lower house election, in which the ruling coalition lost its majority, "it has become easier to make short-sighted policy choices," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Nomura Securities. "There is a growing risk that consideration for fiscal sustainability will fall below the level it should be," he said. Junya Takemoto, senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, said extreme fiscal expansion would be unlikely, as the ruling party remains cautious about expanding the primary deficit with rising interest rates. There was no clear consensus among respondents on which potential contenders for the next prime minister would deliver economic policy with the best chance of stimulating mid- to long-term growth. (Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll) https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/boj-raise-interest-rates-again-q4-possibly-october-say-economists-2025-08-21/

2025-08-21 03:27

JAKARTA, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Indonesia ran a current account deficit of $3 billion in the second quarter, equal to 0.8% of its gross domestic product, after a deficit of 0.1% of GDP in the previous quarter, the central bank said on Thursday. The deficit widened from $200 million in the first quarter, and was driven by rising dividend and coupon payments by companies, aligning with the quarterly cycle, the central bank said in a statement. Sign up here. BI maintained its outlook for a full-year current account deficit of between 0.5% and 1.3% of GDP in 2025. The balance of payments for the second quarter saw a deficit of $6.7 billion, compared with a deficit of about $800 million in the previous quarter, BI added. The deficit was due to foreign capital outflows in the form of domestic bonds, the central bank added. Indonesia's current account position is closely monitored by investors and policymakers because it is seen a as source of economic vulnerability that makes the country susceptible to capital outflows and weakens the rupiah currency. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesias-q2-current-account-deficit-widens-08-gdp-2025-08-21/

2025-08-21 00:22

Aug 21 (Reuters) - New Zealand's Fonterra Co-operative Group (FCG.NZ) , opens new tab on Thursday increased its milk price forecast for the 2024/2025 season, banking on stable global dairy prices and solid sales book. The company increased the midpoint of its annual forecast for farmgate milk price - the price it pays to farmers for milk - to NZ$10.15 per kilogram of milk solids (kgMS) from prior expectations of NZ$10.00 per kgMS. Sign up here. Fonterra also narrowed the milk price forecast range for the 2025/2026 season to NZ$9.00 to NZ$11.00 per kgMS from an earlier view of NZ$8.00 to NZ$11.00 per kgMS. "Global dairy trade prices continue to be strong, supporting the NZ$10.00 per kgMS forecast midpoint for the current season," CEO Miles Hurrell said. (This story has been refiled to fix the spelling of 'dairy' in the headline) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nzs-fonterra-raises-annual-milk-price-forecast-stable-dairy-prices-2025-08-20/

2025-08-20 23:22

Aug 21 (Reuters) - Australia's Whitehaven Coal (WHC.AX) , opens new tab said on Thursday its profit declined by more than half in fiscal 2025, hurt by lower realized prices and higher costs of sales. The country's largest independent coal miner reported a 57% drop in underlying net profit after tax to A$319 million ($205.18 million) for the year ended June 30, down from A$740 million a year earlier. Sign up here. However, the results beat the Visible Alpha estimate of A$261.1 million. Cost of sales, or the expenses to cover operations such as mining and processing, increased more than 80%, while realised coal prices slipped to A$215 per tonne from A$228 per tonne last year. Meanwhile, Whitehaven said it has decided to cut back on capital spending for its Narrabri Stage 3 extension project in New South Wales, reducing the allocation to between A$260 million and A$300 million, down from A$800 million to A$850 million. ($1 = 1.5547 Australian dollars) https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/whitehaven-coals-annual-profit-halves-lower-prices-higher-costs-2025-08-20/

2025-08-20 23:21

Aug 21 (Reuters) - New Zealand's Fonterra Co-operative Group (FCG.NZ) , opens new tab on Thursday increased its milk price forecast for the 2024/2025 season, banking on stable global dairy prices and solid sales book. The company increased the midpoint of its annual forecast for farmgate milk price - the price it pays to farmers for milk - to NZ$10.15 per kilogram of milk solids (kgMS) from prior expectations of NZ$10.00 per kgMS. Sign up here. Fonterra also narrowed the milk price forecast range for the 2025/2026 season to NZ$9.00 to NZ$11.00 per kgMS from an earlier view of NZ$8.00 to NZ$11.00 per kgMS. "Global dairy trade prices continue to be strong, supporting the NZ$10.00 per kgMS forecast midpoint for the current season," CEO Miles Hurrell said. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nzs-fonterra-raises-annual-milk-price-forecast-stable-diary-prices-2025-08-20/

2025-08-20 22:34

VALPARAISO, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Chilean copper miner Codelco (COBRE.UL) will lower its 2025 production guidance after an accident at its flagship El Teniente mine knocked 33,000 metric tons off the facility's output, executives said on Wednesday. El Teniente is now forecast to produce 316,000 tons this year, CEO Ruben Alvarado told a congressional hearing about the accident. Sign up here. The decline represents a $340-million loss tied to the lost output, Alvarado said, slightly higher than the $300 million Codelco forecast last week based on estimated losses of 20,000 to 30,000 tons. The accident on July 31 killed six people near a new section of El Teniente's vast network of underground tunnels, Andesita, and forced Codelco to halt mining operations for several days. Chairman Maximo Pacheco told Reuters the company would evaluate when it might be able to reopen Andesita only after an internal investigation concludes. He added updated total copper production guidance will be announced in the coming days when the company releases its financial results for the first half of the year. The company was due to post results on August 1 but postponed them due to the accident. Pacheco added the company will maintain its long-term goal of producing 1.7 million tons of copper per year by 2030. Codelco in March said it aimed for production between 1.37 million and 1.4 million metric tons for 2025, slightly above output from the year before. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/chiles-codelco-lower-2025-copper-target-after-el-teniente-accident-2025-08-20/