2025-08-18 05:43

Investors still eyeing September Fed cut Zelenskiy flies to Washington on Monday to meet Trump Focus on Fed's Jackson Hole symposium for rate clues SINGAPORE, Aug 18 (Reuters) - The dollar steadied on Monday ahead of a key meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy, while investors also looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium for more policy clues. Currency moves were largely subdued in the Asia session, though the dollar halted its fall from last week as traders further pared bets on a jumbo Fed cut next month. Sign up here. The euro was little changed at $1.1704, while sterling edged up 0.1% to $1.3563. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar stabilised at 97.85, after losing 0.4% last week. Markets are now pricing in an 84% chance the Fed would ease rates by a quarter point next month, down from 98% last week, after a raft of data including a jump in U.S. wholesale prices last month and a solid increase in July's retail sales figures dimmed the prospect of an oversized 50-basis-point cut. "While the data don't all point in the same direction, the U.S. economy looks to be in okay shape in the third quarter," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. "The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by year-end, either in September, when markets now price in a cut, or a few months later, when Comerica forecasts a cut." The main event for investors on Monday is a meeting between Trump and Zelenskiy, who will be joined by some European leaders, as Washington presses Ukraine to accept a quick peace deal to end Europe's deadliest war in 80 years. Trump is leaning on Zelenskiy to strike an agreement after he met Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin in Alaska and emerged more aligned with Moscow on seeking a peace deal instead of a ceasefire first. Also key for markets this week will be the Kansas City Federal Reserve's August 21-23 Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on the economic outlook and the central bank's policy framework. "I think (Powell) will also talk about the current economic conditions in the U.S., and that will be more policy relevant, that will be more interesting to markets," said Joseph Capurso, head of international and sustainable economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "Given market pricing is very high for a rate cut in September, I think the risk is that Powell is hawkish, or is perceived to be hawkish, if he gives a balanced view of the U.S. economy." In other currencies, the dollar rose 0.14% against the yen to 147.37 , after falling roughly 0.4% last week. Japan's government on Friday brushed aside rare and explicit comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who said the Bank of Japan was "behind the curve" on policy, which appeared to be aimed at pressuring the country's central bank into raising interest rates. The Australian dollar was up 0.17% at $0.6519, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.25% to $0.5940, after falling 0.5% last week. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin halted its towering rally and eased from a record high. It last traded 1.7% lower at $115,700.39. Ether similarly slid 3% to $4,334.81, after hitting its highest in nearly four years last week. "The widespread adoption by institutional investors of crypto ETFs and the recent rally of ETH due to rapid buying by digital asset treasuries is giving a lot of confidence to the crypto and equities markets," said Leon Yee, chairman of Duane Morris & Selvam. "If you add the Fed rate cut that is bound to happen sometime this year, I think the party will continue," he said, referring to the rally in crypto. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dollar-braces-busy-week-geopolitics-fed-speak-2025-08-18/

2025-08-18 05:34

Asian stock markets : Nikkei makes new high, EU and Wall St futures edge up Oil market wary as Zelenskiy goes to Washington Dollar on defensive ahead of Fed conference SYDNEY, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Share markets pushed ahead in Asia on Monday ahead of what is likely to be an eventful week for U.S. interest rate policy, while oil prices were subdued as risks to Russian supplies seemed to fade a little. A cautiously risk-on mood saw indices in Japan and Taiwan make record peaks, while Chinese blue chips reached their highest in 10 months. Sign up here. U.S. President Donald Trump now seemed more aligned with Moscow on seeking a peace deal with Ukraine instead of a ceasefire first, after meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. Trump will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders later on Monday to discuss the next steps, though actual proposals are vague as yet. The major economic event of the week will be the Kansas City Federal Reserve's August 21-23 Jackson Hole symposium, where Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on the economic outlook and the central bank's policy framework. "Chair Powell will likely signal that risks to the employment and inflation mandates are coming into balance, setting up the Fed to resume returning policy rate to neutral," said Andrew Hollenhorst, chief economist at Citi Research. "But Powell will stop short of explicitly signalling a September rate cut, awaiting the August jobs and inflation reports," he added. "This would be fairly neutral for markets already fully pricing a September cut." Markets imply around an 85% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed's meeting on September 17, and are priced for a further easing by December. The prospect of lower borrowing costs globally has underpinned stock markets and Japan's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab climbed 0.9% to a fresh record high. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab added 0.5%, having hit a four-year top last week. Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) , opens new tab jumped 1.3%, bringing gains so far this quarter to over 8%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures firmed 0.2%, while FTSE futures gained 0.3%. SOLID EARNINGS S&P 500 futures nudged up 0.1% while Nasdaq futures added 0.2%, with both near all-time highs. Valuations have been underpinned by a solid earnings season as S&P 500 EPS grew 11% on the year and 58% of companies raised their full-year guidance. "Earnings results have continued to be exceptional for the mega-cap tech companies," noted analysts at Goldman Sachs. "While Nvidia has yet to report, the Magnificent 7 apparently grew EPS by 26% year/year in 2Q, a 12% beat relative to consensus expectation coming into earnings season." This week's results will provide some colour on the health of consumer spending with Home Depot, Target, Lowe's and Walmart all reporting. In bond markets, the chance of Fed easing is keeping down short-term Treasury yields while the longer end is pressured by the risk of stagflation and giant budget deficits, leading to the steepest yield curve since 2021. European bonds also have been pressured by the prospect of increased borrowing to fund defence spending, pushing German long-term yields to 14-year highs. Wagers on more Fed easing have weighed on the dollar, which dropped 0.4% against a basket of currencies last week to last stand at 97.851 . The dollar was a fraction firmer on the yen at 147.41 , while the euro held at $1.1704 after adding 0.5% last week. The dollar has fared better against its New Zealand counterpart as the country's central bank is widely expected to cut rates to 3.0% on Wednesday. In commodity markets, gold bounced 0.5% to $3,343 an ounce after losing 1.9% last week. Oil prices struggled as Trump backed away from threats to place more restrictions on Russian oil exports. Brent dropped 0.1% to $65.78 a barrel, while U.S. crude steadied at $62.73 per barrel. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-3pix-2025-08-18/

2025-08-18 05:23

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. You know it's crazy times, when speculation Putin sent his body double to Alaska doesn't sound so outlandish. What does seem clear is that President Trump has shifted back to echoing Moscow's line, tweeting Kremlin talking points about Crimea and Zelenskiy. Sign up here. Putin's position seems to be that Ukraine should give up all the land Russia has taken, and much that it has failed to take in more than three years of fighting. This has been repeatedly ruled out by Zelenskiy and European leaders, and it's notable they will be by his side in Washington when he meets Trump later today. Markets have judged there is a diminished threat of further U.S. sanctions or tariffs on Russian oil exports, and oil prices are down modestly with Brent off 0.3%. Share markets are mostly firmer as Japan and Taiwan make more records, and Chinese blue chips scale a 10-month top. European stock futures are up 0.2% or so, as are Wall St futures. Valuations have been underpinned by a solid earnings season as Goldman notes S&P 500 EPS grew 11% on the year and 58% of companies raised their full-year guidance. This week's results will provide some colour on the health of consumer spending with Home Depot (HD.N) , opens new tab, Target (TGT.N) , opens new tab, Lowe's (LOW.N) , opens new tab and Walmart (WMT.N) , opens new tab all reporting. For monetary policy the main event will be the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole jamboree where Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook and the Fed's policy framework on Friday, though there doesn't seem to be a Q&A as yet. ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey are on panel discussions. Futures are about 85% priced for a Fed rate cut in September so anything less than dovish from Powell would be a setback for debt markets. While Fed expectations are anchoring short-term yields, the long end continues to fret about inflation, budget deficit and the politicisation of monetary policy, so steepening the yield curve. European bond yields have also been on the rise, perhaps in part on a realisation of how much governments are going to have to borrow to cover increased defence spending. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: - EU trade figures for June, US NAHB housing survey https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-08-18/

2025-08-18 05:20

BEIJING, Aug 18 (Reuters) - China's imports of unwrought aluminium and products in July surged 38.2% from the prior year, customs data showed on Monday. The world's top consumer of the light metal imported 360,000 metric tons of unwrought aluminium and products last month, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Sign up here. The data includes primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium. In the first seven months of 2025, China imported a total of 2.33 million tons of unwrought aluminium and products, a rise of 1.5% from the corresponding period in 2024. Imports of bauxite, a key raw material for aluminium, rose 34.2% on-year to 20.06 million tons in July. The July import has brought the total in the first seven months of the year to 123.26 million tons, up 33.7% year-on-year. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-july-aluminium-imports-surge-38-prior-year-2025-08-18/

2025-08-18 05:04

BEIJING, Aug 18 (Reuters) - China's Dongfeng Motor (0489.HK) , opens new tab has put its 50% stake in Dongfeng Honda Engine Company up for sale, according to a stock exchange filing on the Guangdong United Assets and Equity Exchange on Monday. A reserve price has yet to be set. Sign up here. The company's assets were valued at 5.4 billion yuan ($752.15 million) last year, while its debts totaled 3.3 billion yuan, according to audited results included in the filing. It reported a loss of 227.8 million yuan in 2024. The listing deadline is Sept. 12 ($1 = 7.1794 Chinese yuan renminbi) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/chinas-dongfeng-motor-puts-its-50-stake-dongfeng-honda-engine-up-sale-2025-08-18/

2025-08-18 04:15

One-off impairment charge on US business of A$439 million Underlying profit down 51%, below estimates Net profit tumbles 90% Sees solid growth for first-half operating earnings Aug 18 (Reuters) - Australian steel producer Bluescope (BSL.AX) , opens new tab said annual profit plummeted 90%, blaming a "maze" of tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump for lower demand and a hefty writedown on the value of its U.S. metal coatings unit. Shares in the company slid 5%, though Bluescope reiterated its position that it stands to benefit from higher prices due to its interests in the U.S., and forecast growth in first-half profit for the current financial year. Sign up here. Underperformance from BlueScope Coated Products, a U.S. business it bought for $500 million three years ago, led to an impairment charge of A$438.9 million ($285 million). But even without the writedown, underlying profit for the year to end-June halved to A$420.8 million, missing a Visible Alpha consensus estimate of A$466.4 million. Total net profit slumped to A$83.8 million from A$805.7 million. "It is a bit of a maze," CEO Mark Vassella told journalists on a call, referring to U.S. tariffs, which he said sometimes were announced but did not materialise. "There's lots of movement, there's lots of volatility and variability. It's had some impact on demand as people just try and understand what the implications are before they make commitments or bets on inventory." BlueScope has said it considers itself a net beneficiary of the tariffs because it ships a small amount of steel from Australia to the U.S. relative to what it produces in the United States. But on Monday, Vassella said the coatings business also sources some raw product from Australia and New Zealand, incurring tariffs. "What we're now doing is thinking about alternatives for substrate supply," he said, using the term for base material. BlueScope's North America division, its biggest earner, posted underlying earnings of A$514.4 million for the year, down 45%, mostly due to lower selling prices. "With impairment of US coated products business (there is) a recognition that there's no quick fix here," Citi analysts wrote in a client note. Noting that its main U.S. business is starting to see an improvement in profit margins as a result of tariffs driving prices up, the company forecast underlying operating earnings for the first half of 2026 between A$550 million and A$620 million, above last year's A$309 million. The midpoint of the range, however, fell short of a Visible Alpha consensus of A$618 million. BlueScope declared a final dividend of 30 Australian cents per share, in line with last year. ($1 = 1.5352 Australian dollars) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australias-bluescope-logs-profit-plunge-tariff-maze-hits-demand-forces-writedown-2025-08-17/