2025-08-14 17:47
BRASILIA, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Brazil's inflation has shown more downside surprises than analysts had expected, but remains above target and is being driven by strong demand, requiring contractionary monetary policy for a "very long" period, a central bank official said on Thursday. Economic policy director Diogo Guillen said in a presentation delivered during a closed-door meeting and later published by the central bank that the labor market has provided considerable support to consumption and income, while services inflation remains above the level consistent with meeting the official 3% target. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-central-bank-stresses-need-prolonged-restrictive-rates-despite-softer-2025-08-14/
2025-08-14 16:41
Wall Street stocks end flat, S&P 500 ekes out fresh record closing high Risk-on rally pauses after sharp jump in US producer prices Longer-dated Treasuries spooked by rising inflation pressures Oil prices settle higher ahead of Friday's US-Russia summit NEW YORK/LONDON, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Global stocks edged lower on Thursday, with equities on Wall Street ending flat, while U.S. Treasury yields rose after market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts were shaken by surprisingly strong inflation data. The benchmark S&P 500 eked out a fresh closing high for the third straight session, while the Dow and the Nasdaq finished little changed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab eased 0.02%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 0.03% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab dipped 0.01%. Sign up here. "We've had a good ride for the last few trading days," said Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter. "The PPI (Producer Price Index) number was not something that was going to rally the market further, but it also wasn't something that was going to particularly scare the market." U.S. producer prices rose 0.9% in July, the Labor Department reported, surpassing consensus forecasts for a 0.2% gain. Investors have been watching for signs of inflation pressures from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. European stocks (.STOXX) , opens new tab held gains from earlier in the day and were last 0.55% higher. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab fell 0.12% to 951.91, taking a breather a day after hitting an all-time high. "I think the market is falling into an acceptance that the overall economy is slowing ... and having some confirmation with the inflation numbers puts us in a good place for at least two 25-basis-point cuts that this market is going to need for support," Genter added. U.S. Treasury yields leaped after the inflation data as expectations for jumbo Fed rate cuts faded. The two-year note yield was last up 4.5 basis points at 3.732%. The benchmark U.S. 10-year note yield rose 4.9 basis points to 4.289%. Money markets showed traders still almost unanimously expect the Fed to cut borrowing costs next month, although some traders have lowered their bets. Markets are predicting a 92.5% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, down slightly from 94.3% on Wednesday but up from nearly 59% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "We have been too anxious to draw a conclusion that the economy is fine; it's not overheated," said Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston. "But this wholesale data does show that perhaps there is some inflation working, and we shouldn't be so quick to conclude we need to cut interest rates." "It reinforces the case that the Fed might say we still don't have a clear picture yet, based on the tariffs in the employment picture to take any action, and I would expect that they would tend to be neutral and make no change in September as opposed to the majority of opinions out there," Andersen said. About 70% of global investors expect U.S. stagflation, with growth slowing as consumer price rises accelerate, to become the dominant market narrative within three months, a Bank of America survey found this week. The dollar rose against major peers after falling in the prior session. It strengthened 0.25% to 147.75 against the Japanese yen and was up 0.39% at 0.808 against the Swiss franc . The euro fell 0.49% to $1.1647. The dollar index tracking the greenback against peers, including the euro and Japan's yen edged 0.5% higher. Trump on Wednesday threatened "severe consequences" if Russian leader Vladimir Putin did not agree to peace in Ukraine at a Friday meeting and has also floated the idea of a second summit that would include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose from almost a two-month low to settle up 1.84% to $66.84 a barrel and U.S. crude added 2.09% to settle at $63.96 . Spot gold fell 0.57% to $3,335.34 an ounce. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.7% lower at $3,383.20. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2025-08-14/
2025-08-14 16:04
MUMBAI, Aug 14 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee declined on Thursday with traders treading lightly ahead of the Trump-Putin summit, although S&P’s upgrade offered a silver lining. The rupee closed at 87.5500 against the U.S. dollar, softer than Wednesday’s close of 87.4400, navigating a choppy session that saw it swing between 87.39 and 87.67. Sign up here. With the focus squarely on the Trump-Putin meet, the S&P's upgrade of India offered a boost to the local currency right when it was grappling with midday pressure. S&P noted that India’s robust external position is a key credit strength. It highlighted that current account deficits are likely to remain small over the next few years, while domestic demand stabilises and a weaker rupee boosts competitiveness. The agency further pointed to the rupee’s active trading status, noting it accounts for more than 1% of global foreign exchange turnover. "In the shorter term, we may see some relief on the ratings upgrade, but the rupee is still not out of the woods as trade uncertainties persist and broad economic indicators are still weak," said Dilip Parmar, currency analyst at HDFC Securities. The Trump-Putin meeting to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war holds added significance for the rupee. The U.S. president has criticised India’s purchase of Russian oil and imposed an extra 25% tariff on its goods effective August 27, doubling the rate to 50% - the highest U.S. tariff on a country alongside Brazil. The currency unit touched 87.8850 last week after Trump's tariffs salvo, with the Reserve Bank of India stepping in to prevent the rupee from breaching the all-time low of 87.95 - a level bankers believe the central bank will continue to defend. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index was up 0.1% at 97.835 at 1550 IST. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-slips-sp-upgrade-lends-lifeline-ahead-trump-putin-meet-2025-08-14/
2025-08-14 15:30
SAO PAULO, Aug 14 (Reuters) - U.S.-based beef-packers will continue to reel from low cattle availability for about three or four quarters, with gradual improvements of the U.S. cattle herd happening gradually from late 2027, JBS (Z98.F) , opens new tab managers said on Thursday. In remarks made after releasing second quarter results, the world's largest meat company said other factors affecting its U.S. beef operation, which accounts for about a third of its net sales, include the U.S. closure of its border with Mexico in May due to a flesh-eating parasite. Sign up here. "The Mexican situation is obviously relevant," said Wesley Batista Jr, who leads JBS' U.S. operations. The Mexican and the U.S. governments are in talks for potentially reopening the border, he said, estimating around 1.1 million head of feeder cattle cannot go through at this point. Other operating challenges in the U.S. for the company include the pork business, which has been heavily hit since U.S. President Donald Trump started a trade war with Beijing. Restrictions on Brazilian chicken exports from China and the European Union, enforced since May after a bird flu outbreak in the world's largest poultry exporter, are also weighing on JBS, which in June created a dual U.S.-Brazil listing. CEO Gilberto Tomazoni estimated that if sanitary trade barriers are not removed, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of its Brazil Seara prepared foods division may be impacted by around 1.5%. Seara's margins, however, remained in the double digits despite bird flu-related disruptions in the second quarter. Bolstered also by strong results from JBS' poultry processor Pilgrims Pride (PPC.O) , opens new tab, the firm, now listed in New York, posted record overall net sales of $21 billion while net profit rose nearly 61% to $528.1 million in the second quarter. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/jbs-sees-us-cattle-cycle-improving-late-2027-2025-08-14/
2025-08-14 14:12
Liquidity rose to $2.6 bln, but remained below last year's levels Processing increased to 858,000 bpd from 833,000 bpd in Q1 Turnaround at Lemont and Lake Charles refineries postponed to 2026 HOUSTON, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Venezuela-owned U.S. refiner Citgo Petroleum registered net income of $100 million in the second quarter versus a $25 million loss in the same quarter last year, finishing the period with liquidity of $2.6 billion, it said on Thursday. The Houston-based refiner, whose parent company PDV Holding is being auctioned by a U.S. court to pay creditors for past debt defaults and expropriations in Venezuela, had recorded losses in the two previous quarters amid weak margins before its second-quarter results. Sign up here. Citgo's performance is being used as a key metric to estimate the parent's value as part of the auction, whose final hearing to choose a winner is scheduled for this month amid objections and complications in the 8-year court case. Between April and June Citgo, which is the seventh-largest U.S. refiner, increased its total processing to an average of 858,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 833,000 bpd in the first quarter, registering a crude utilization rate of 101%. "Reliable operations in a more supportive market environment" led to a stronger second quarter, the company said in a release. In the second half of the year, Citgo plans to advance key projects, but it rescheduled some turnaround activities at its Lemont, Illinois and Lake Charles, Louisiana refineries to next year, it added. As a consequence, projected turnaround, catalyst and capital expenditures for this year were reduced from approximately $960 million to some $696 million. The refiner's quarter-end liquidity, which included full availability of a $500-million accounts receivable credit, was higher than the $2.1 billion registered in the first quarter, but below the $3.8 billion of the second quarter last year. In April, Citgo retired $50 million of outstanding secured industrial revenue bonds with cash on hand, it said. Citgo's marketing sales volume was 431,000 bpd in the quarter, up slightly from the previous period. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/citgo-petroleum-returned-profit-second-quarter-2025-08-14/
2025-08-14 12:51
Interim inflation targets to serve as 'commitment and anchor' Inflation target set at 16% next year, 9% in 2027 Central bank cut rates by 300 basis points last month Inflation fell to 33.5% in July ISTANBUL, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Turkey's central bank is aiming to cut inflation to 16% by the end of next year and 9% by end-2027, it said on Thursday, separating the targets from its inflation forecast ranges in a new strategy aimed at boosting transparency and confidence. Presenting the central bank's quarterly inflation report, Governor Fatih Karahan said the bank was keeping its inflation target for this year at 24%, even though it is forecasting inflation of between 25% and 29%. He said this was while the bank switched to the new system. Sign up here. Previously, the bank presented the target as the midpoint of the forecast range. Separating the goal and the range could give markets a clearer indication of where policy might be heading. "We have decided to change the framework for presenting medium-term forecasts," Karahan said. "We will present 'interim targets' that will not be changed unless extraordinary circumstances occur between report periods." "The 'year-end interim targets' will serve as a commitment and anchor," he said. "We will maintain our tight monetary policy stance to achieve our interim targets. We will determine the steps to be taken in a way that will ensure the tightness required to reach the targets," he added. Last month, Turkey's central bank cut interest rates by 300 basis points to 43%, resuming an easing cycle that had been disrupted by political turmoil earlier this year, as markets have since calmed and disinflation continued. Annual consumer price inflation fell to 33.52% in July, sustaining a downward trend after peaking at 75% in May 2024. Karahan said inflation forecasts would continue to be announced in the quarterly inflation reports. Daglar Ozkan, an economist at Is Yatirim, said separating the targets and forecasts made central bank communication more realistic. "This will allow us to better observe and assess deviations from inflation targets. I anticipate year-end inflation slightly above the forecast range of 25-29%" Ozkan added. The lira was little changed at 40.79 to the dollar after the news. Before last month's rate cut, the central bank had hiked its policy rate in April to 46% from 42.5%, reversing an easing cycle that had begun in December. That followed market volatility over the arrest in March of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who is President Tayyip Erdogan's main rival. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkish-central-bank-sets-targets-cut-inflation-2025-08-14/
