2025-08-14 02:13

Jobs bounce 24,500 as expected, jobless rate dips to 4.2% Full-time jobs jump 60,000 as more women get work Labour market resilience not a bar to further rate cuts SYDNEY, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Australian employment rebounded in July as firms took on more full-time workers, data showed on Thursday, pulling the jobless rate down from a 3-1/2 year high and calming concerns the labour market was about to fall over. The upbeat report implied there was less urgency for the Reserve Bank of Australia to follow up this week's rate cut with another in September, and nudged the local dollar up 0.3% to a two-week high at $0.6566 . Sign up here. Yet policy makers have indicated more easing is likely should inflation continue to cool as expected and markets remain fully priced for a further quarter point easing to 3.35% in November. "The data are reassuring in that they suggest conditions are not deteriorating quickly," Sean Langcake, Head of Macroeconomic Forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia. "Nevertheless, weak economic momentum and global uncertainty will be strong headwinds for the labour market to overcome through the rest of the year." Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed net employment rose 24,500 in July from June, when it added a meagre 1,000. That was dead in line with market forecasts, while full-time jobs more than recovered a June drop with a jump of 60,500. In a relief for the economic outlook, the jobless rate eased back to 4.2%, from 4.3%, which had been the highest reading since November 2021. The participation rate ticked down to 67.0%, while hours worked rose 0.3% after a pullback in June. The ABS noted female full-time jobs jumped by 40,000 in July and their participation rate rose a record high of 63.5%. The central bank had expected unemployment to rise to around 4.3% this quarter, which is still low by historical standards, and stay there for the foreseeable future. Leading indicators of labour demand have been solid with vacancies still almost 50% above pre-pandemic levels, while there were 1.8 unemployed per vacancy compared to 3.1 back in early 2020. Business surveys are generally upbeat and consumer spending has picked up in the last couple of months as lower borrowing costs and past tax cuts feed through to incomes. RBA Governor Michele Bullock has also flagged the likelihood of at least another 50 basis points of total easing should core inflation continue to moderate from its current 2.7% pace to the mid-point of the central bank's target band of 2% to 3%. While unemployment is low, there is little sign of wages being an inflationary threat with annual pay growth holding at 3.4% in the second quarter, well below its 2023 peak of 4.2%. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-jobs-rebound-july-unemployment-dips-major-relief-2025-08-14/

2025-08-14 01:58

Japan has 'inflation problem', Bessent says Bessent says have spoken to BOJ chief Ueda Ueda has brushed aside view BOJ was behind the curve Food inflation raises worries within BOJ of second-round effect TOKYO, Aug 14 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan will likely be raising interest rates as it is behind the curve in dealing with the risk of inflation, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg Television, in his most explicit comment on Japan's monetary policy. The remarks contrast with those of BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who has repeatedly brushed aside the view the central bank was being too slow in raising rates and could be late in forestalling too-high inflation. Sign up here. Bessent said U.S. Treasury yields are feeling the impact of overseas developments, with the 30-year yield getting dragged up by rising long-term bond yields in Japan and Germany. "There's definitely leakage from — the Japanese have an inflation problem," Bessent said in the interview with Bloomberg Television on Wednesday. Bessent mentioned that he had spoken with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. "My opinion, not his — they're behind the curve. So they're going to be hiking," he added, though he made no comment on how soon a rate hike could come. The comments by Bessent come as rising food and raw material costs keep Japan's core inflation above the central bank's 2% target for well over three years, causing some BOJ policymakers to worry about second-round price effects. Governor Ueda has signalled readiness to keep raising rates but justified going slow on the view that "underlying inflation," which focuses on domestic demand and wages, remains short of the BOJ's target. The slow pace of the BOJ's policy normalisation has been blamed by some analysts for the yen's persistent weakness, which in turn has pushed up the cost of imports and broader inflation. The BOJ next meets for a rate review in September before holding another one in October, when the board conducts a quarterly review of its growth and inflation forecasts. Bessent, who oversees Washington's trade and exchange-rate talks with Tokyo, has repeatedly signalled his preference for tighter Japanese monetary policy. In its exchange-rate report to Congress in June, the U.S. Treasury Department said the BOJ should keep tightening monetary policy, which would support a "normalization of the yen's weakness." In an interview with the Nikkei newspaper published on Monday, Bessent said the currency "will take care of itself" as long as the BOJ focused on "economic fundamentals, inflation and growth." The BOJ last year exited a decade-long, massive stimulus programme and raised short-term interest rates to 0.5% in January on the view Japan was close to durably hitting its 2% inflation target. At its policy meeting in July, the BOJ kept rates steady but revised up its inflation forecasts and offered a less gloomy outlook on the economy, keeping alive market expectations for a rate hike this year. "I don't think we're behind the curve, or that the risk of us being behind the curve is large," Ueda told a news briefing after the July policy meeting. The governor said that while wages and service-sector inflation were rising, the pace of gains weren't alarming. A Reuters poll last month showed a majority of economists expect another rate hike by year-end. https://www.reuters.com/business/bessent-says-boj-is-behind-curve-inflation-likely-hike-rates-bloomberg-interview-2025-08-14/

2025-08-14 00:56

TOKYO, Aug 14 (Reuters) - The dollar languished near multi-week lows against the euro and sterling on Thursday as traders ramped up bets for the Federal Reserve to resume cutting interest rates next month. Rising expectations for Fed easing combined with increasing institutional cryptocurrency investment sent bitcoin powering to a fresh record peak. Sign up here. The dollar index , which measures the currency against the euro, sterling and four other major peers, was steady at 97.704 as of 0002 GMT. It dropped some 0.8% over the previous two sessions, having dipped to 97.626 on Wednesday for the first time since July 28. The euro edged up to $1.1713, nearing Wednesday's high of $1.1730, a level last seen on July 28. Sterling rose to $1.3586 for the first time since July 24. Against Japan's currency , the greenback lost 0.3% to 146.95 yen. Fed rhetoric has turned overall more dovish of late, amid signs of a cooling labour market and with President Donald Trump's tariffs not adding to price pressures in a significant way as of yet. Traders see a Fed rate cut on September 17 as a near certainty, according to LSEG data, and even lay around 7% odds on a super-sized half-point reduction. "For the markets, it's not even a matter of if the Fed cuts interest rates in September, it's a question of how much," said Kyle Rodda, an analyst at Capital.com. "Signs of a downturn in the labour market have pushed futures to bake in a series of rate cuts before the end of the year." On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for a "series of rate cuts," and said the Fed could kick off the policy rate easing with a half-point cut. Trump has repeatedly criticised Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not easing rates sooner. A weaker dollar, the specter of political interference in U.S. monetary policy, and the increase in investor risk appetite amid Fed easing prospects all converged to buoy bitcoin to its first record peak since July 14, pushing as high as $123,674.71 in the latest session. Bitcoin was already underpinned by increased institutional money flows this year in the wake of a spate of regulatory changes spearheaded by Trump, who has billed himself the "cryptocurrency president." In the latest move, an executive order last week paved the way to allow crypto assets in 401(k) retirement accounts. "Corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy and Block Inc. continue to buy bitcoin," said IG analyst Tony Sycamore. "Technically, a sustained break above $125,000 could propel bitcoin to $150,000." https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-doldrums-fed-rate-cut-bets-build-bitcoin-soars-record-high-2025-08-14/

2025-08-14 00:29

TOKYO, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Bitcoin hit a record high on Thursday as increasing expectations for easier monetary policy from the Federal Reserve added to tailwinds from recently announced financial reforms. The world's largest crypto-asset by market capitalisation climbed as much as 0.9% to $124,002.49 in early Asia trading, surpassing its previous peak hit in July. On the day, the second largest crypto-token ether hit $4,780.04, the highest level since late 2021. Sign up here. Bitcoin's rally is being powered by increasing certainty of Fed rate cuts, sustained institutional buying and moves by the Trump administration to ease investment in crypto assets, said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore. "Technically a sustained break above $125k could propel BTC to $150,000," he wrote in a note. Bitcoin has risen nearly 32% so far in 2025 on the back of long-sought regulatory wins for the sector following President Donald Trump's return to the White House. Trump has called himself the "crypto president" and his family has made a series of forays into the sector over the past year. An executive order last week paved the way to allow crypto assets in 401(k) retirement accounts, highlighting an increasingly favorable regulatory environment in the United States. Crypto has scored multiple regulatory wins in the U.S. over 2025, including the passage of stablecoin regulations and the U.S. securities regulator's move to overhaul regulations in order to accommodate the asset class. Bitcoin's surge has also sparked a broader rally in the asset class over the past few months, shrugging off the tremors of Trump's wide-ranging tariff policies. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the crypto sector's overall market capitalisation has ballooned to over $4.18 trillion, up from about $2.5 trillion in November 2024, when Trump won the U.S. presidential election. The latest push for crypto adoption in the United States came via an executive order on Thursday last week, which would ease access to the asset class in 401(k) retirement accounts. The executive order could also be a boost for asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity, which operate crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Crypto's push into retirement savings can also be peppered with risks, as the asset class tends to experience much more volatility than stocks and bonds, which asset managers had typically relied on for such accounts. https://www.reuters.com/business/bitcoin-hits-fresh-record-fed-easing-bets-add-tailwinds-2025-08-14/

2025-08-13 23:46

MELBOURNE, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Australia's South32 (S32.AX) , opens new tab on Thursday flagged a $372 million impairment on its Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique and said it was set to place the facility into care and maintenance once its current power supply agreement expires next year. The diversified miner has been in protracted negotiations with Mozambique's government over a power agreement that is set to expire in March, 2026. It warned in July that it may face an impairment at the smelter during fiscal 2025 and was reviewing production after failing to secure affordable power. Sign up here. "Based on engagements to date, we do not have confidence that Mozal will secure sufficient and affordable electricity when the current supply agreement ends," CEO Graham Kerr said in a statement. "It is not viable for Mozal to operate under the tariff indicated. The price expectations of counterparties would make Mozal internationally uncompetitive," he said. South32 said that given care and maintenance was the most likely scenario, it would curtail activities such as pot relining and would limit further investment in the operations. South32 said it has since continued engagement with the Mozambique government, hydroelectric producer Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa (HCB) and South African utility Eskom since July. Shuttering the smelter is not a done deal, if the two parties can reach agreement on costs. “We are hopeful a workable solution emerges that enables Mozal to operate beyond March 2026, and maintain its substantial contribution to Mozambique,” Kerr added. HCB, majority-owned by the Mozambique government, is the primary power supplier to Mozal. When it cannot meet the smelter's needs, Eskom steps in under the current agreement. The miner expects its share of Mozal's output in fiscal 2026 to fall to about 240 kilo tons, compared with 355 kilo tons in 2025. July was the second time South32 flagged impairments at its Mozal project. In December, nationwide protests in Mozambique disrupted operations and weighed on production. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south32-says-mothball-mozal-flags-372-million-hit-2025-08-13/

2025-08-13 23:05

LONDON, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Britain's housing market lost momentum for a third month in a row and confidence among businesses has fallen sharply, according to two surveys published on Thursday that showed worries about finance minister Rachel Reeves' November budget. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said its measures of buyer demand and agreed sales were stuck in negative territory in September, as they both were in July and August. Sign up here. The RICS house price balance, which measures the difference between the percentage of surveyors seeing rises and falls in house prices, improved slightly to -15 from -18 in August. Tarrant Parsons, RICS' head of market research and analysis, said there was a broad sense of hesitancy in the market. "Ongoing uncertainty around potential measures in the upcoming budget is also likely adding to the prevailing cautious sentiment," Parsons said. Reeves is expected to raise taxes in her November 26 budget to remain on track to meet her targets for fixing the public finances. Reports in British media have suggested that she might look to the housing market as a source of extra tax revenue. An unexpected fall in mortgage lender Halifax's measure of house prices in September published on Tuesday was also seen by economists as a sign of worries about the budget. In the rental market, the RICS measure of landlords making properties available dropped to its lowest since May 2020 while demand from renters remained stable, contributing to an expected 3% increase in rents in over the next 12 months. The supply of rental properties has been hit by landlords selling homes and apartments after a rise in borrowing and other costs in recent years and due to their worries about planned legislation to give more rights to tenants. A separate survey by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales showed confidence among businesses sank to its lowest level in three years in the July-to-September period. A record 60% of businesses said the tax burden was a growing challenge, the ICAEW survey found. Suren Thiru, the institute's economics director, said many employers were feeling the hit from Reeves' decision in her first budget last year to raise their social security bill. "The mounting squeeze from plummeting confidence and a weakening outlook for domestic sales and employment means the economy will struggle to deliver the uplift in growth needed to avoid more painful decisions at the budget," Thiru said. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-housing-market-loses-momentum-tax-worries-surface-rics-says-2025-07-09/