2025-08-13 12:13

NEW YORK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - This year's popularity of emerging market assets is showing no sign of let-up as international investors poured a combined $55.5 billion into EM stock and bond portfolios in July, the second-largest monthly total in four years. The total compared with $42.8 billion in June and $47.6 billion in July 2024, according to data on Wednesday from the Institute of International Finance. July's total was the largest net inflow since $63.5 billion in September and the second-largest since June 2021. Sign up here. The data showed Chinese debt attracted a net $30.8 billion, the most since March, while another $10 billion that went into non-Chinese EM stocks was the largest amount since December 2023. The strong numbers were backed by performance, with MSCI's 24-country EM stock index (.MSCIEF) , opens new tab up 17% this year, compared to the S&P 500's (.SPX) , opens new tab 9.5% advance. EM debt in dollars is up 8% (.JPMEGD) , opens new tab while local currency debt (.JPMGBIEMTRD) , opens new tab gained over 11% through July. "Flows into high-carry currencies have been persistent," said Jonathan Fortun, a senior economist at the IIF, a banking trade group. "This has been particularly visible in markets like Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa, where elevated real rates have combined with more stable exchange rates to deliver strong total returns." He said "passive allocations" have amplified the trend, with local government bond ETFs registering steady inflows, reflecting a growing comfort with currency risk given this year's weakening of the dollar. Despite a dollar rebound in July, the EM currency index (.MIEM00000CUS) , opens new tab is up nearly 6% this year. The greenback has lost almost 8% against its main developed market peers (.DXY) , opens new tab and the weakness has spilled into August too. Importantly, a weak U.S payrolls number last week tilted expectations towards as many as three rate cuts from the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. "The weaker dollar has also bolstered carry trade performance, with investors able to capture high local yields without facing the same level of (currency) depreciation risk seen in past cycles," said Fortun. MORE GAINS COMING Overall, EM equities saw a $16.3 billion inflow, the most since September, and $39.2 billion funnelled into debt, the most since March. The report highlighted equity inflows to South Korea which more than offset flows out of Taiwan. The Seoul benchmark (.KS11) , opens new tab is up about 33% so far this year while the won has gained more than 6% against the dollar. Foreign ownership of South Korean stocks has risen steadily since mid April according to Goldman Sachs, yet at 29.6% it remains below the recent peak of 32% from July 2024. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/em-portfolios-see-second-biggest-monthly-inflow-four-years-iif-data-shows-2025-08-13/

2025-08-13 12:12

Aug 13 (Reuters) - Hudbay Minerals (HBM.TO) , opens new tab said on Wednesday Mitsubishi Corp (8058.T) , opens new tab will buy a 30% stake in its Copper World project in Arizona for $600 million, boosting financing and strategic backing for the U.S. copper mine. The deal is expected to close later this year, or early next year. Sign up here. WHY IT'S IMPORTANT Last month, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 50% tariff on copper pipes, wiring and other semi-finished products, but exempted refined copper cathodes and raw materials such as ores. Hudbay said its "Made in America" copper production will strengthen the domestic supply chain. CONTEXT Copper World, which is being constructed in Pima County, Arizona, comprises four open-pit copper mines in the first phase, with more planned for later. The mine is expected to produce 85,000 tonnes of copper per year over an initial 20-year lifetime. MARKET REACTION U.S.-listed shares Hudbay rose nearly 17% in the premarket trading. Analyst Shane Nagle of National Bank Financial said the $600 million Mitsubishi joint venture is a “significantly accretive” deal that underscores the scarcity of shovel-ready copper projects globally and the importance of investing in the U.S. critical minerals supply chain. BY NUMBERS Mitsubishi will pay $420 million initially upon the closing and remaining $180 million will be paid within 18 months after the deal is complete. Copper World will facilitate a $1.5 billion investment into the U.S. critical minerals supply chain, the company said. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/hudbay-minerals-sell-30-stake-arizona-copper-mining-project-600-million-2025-08-13/

2025-08-13 12:02

New Delhi, Aug 13 (Reuters) - India's Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) said it held a bilateral technical meeting with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to strengthen cooperation on nuclear safety and regulation as India looks to expand its nuclear power capacity. An Indian delegation participated in the meeting held from August 6 to 8 at the NRC headquarters in Rockville, Maryland, the AERB said in a statement dated August 12. Sign up here. The meeting comes as India seeks to expand its nuclear power generation capacity to at least 100 gigawatts by 2047, up from just over 8 gigawatts currently. The countries discussed regulation of new and advanced reactors, codes and standards for advanced reactor technologies among others, the AERB said. Both sides identified potential areas for future collaboration, it said. In April, Reuters reported that India was relaxing rules to allow foreign entities to hold minority stakes in nuclear power projects. India's nuclear power generation of just over 8 gigawatts, accounts for about 3% of its total installed electricity capacity. India and the United States also discussed long-term operation strategies for nuclear power plants, safety assessments, and emergency preparedness for advanced and small modular reactors, the statement said. State-run Nuclear Power Corporation of India is seeking proposals from industries to set up 220-megawatt electric small nuclear reactors as the country looks to decarbonize industrial power and meet its net-zero emissions targets. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-us-nuclear-regulators-meet-boost-cooperation-2025-08-13/

2025-08-13 11:56

MSCI All Country World Index touches record Euro STOXX 600 gains 0.5% US inflation data below expectations, easing stagflation fears Fed rate cut expected, boosting Wall Street and Asian markets Nikkei attains record high above 43,000 LONDON, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Global shares hit a record high and the dollar weakened on Wednesday as investors cheered mild inflation data, and expectations of a U.S. rate next month buoyed demand for riskier assets. The MSCI All Country World Index (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab of shares climbed for a second day and reached 951.74, an all-time high. Japan's Nikkei stock index (.N225) , opens new tab, meanwhile, set a fresh peak for a second straight session. Sign up here. European stocks (.STOXX) , opens new tab advanced 0.5%, with German shares (.GDAXI) , opens new tab adding 0.6%. Defence (.SXPARO) , opens new tab stocks led the gains, up 1.2%. U.S. inflation readings, which on Tuesday showed the consumer price index (CPI) rising slightly less than forecast in the year through July, indicated President Donald Trump's import tariffs had yet to filter down to consumer prices. That helped Wall Street scale new heights, supported by increasing certainty that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. "The fact that CPI was broadly as expected was met with relief, leading to equity gains and tighter credit spreads as investors became increasingly confident about another rate cut," Deutsche Bank analysts wrote. Also boosting market optimism was Trump's signing of an executive order pausing triple-digit levies on Chinese imports for another 90 days. The positive mood was set to spread to Wall Street, where a gauge of S&P 500 futures reached a record high, pointing to a 0.2% advance. In Japan, a Reuters poll that tracks the Bank of Japan's quarterly business survey showed the Japanese manufacturers' sentiment index improved for a second straight month. Another report showed Japan's wholesale inflation slowed in July, underscoring the central bank's view that upward price pressure from raw material costs will ease. The Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab rose for the sixth straight day, breaking the 43,000 level for the first time and hitting a fresh record high. Risk-sensitive cryptocurrency ether rose to an almost four-year high above $4,710. FED CUT The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of major peers, fell for a second day to its lowest in two weeks. It was last down 0.3% at 97.70. The dollar lost 0.2% against the yen to 147.52 . The euro added 0.3% to $1.1711, after a 0.5% jump in the previous session. Traders are pricing in a 98% chance of a Fed cut in September, up from about 57% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Investors had been on tenterhooks about the inflation data because it followed a surprisingly weak jobs report on August 1 and had the potential to stoke concerns about stagflation - when an economy suffers both high inflation and high unemployment. Trump has nominated White House adviser Stephen Miran to temporarily fill a vacant board seat at the U.S. central bank, stirring up speculation about presidential interference in monetary policy. And the White House said it was "the plan" that the Bureau of Labor Statistics would continue to publish its closely watched monthly employment report after Trump's pick to head the agency, E.J. Antoni, proposed suspending its release. Speculation the labour report would be halted has "done the USD no favours and would have only incentivised foreign investors to review their hedging ratios on U.S. investments," Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said in a note. In sovereign bond markets, German 30-year bond yields fell on Wednesday, retreating from the previous day's 14-year high sparked by uncertainty linked to Trump's efforts to end the war in Ukraine. U.S. crude fell 0.2% to $62.99 a barrel. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-update-4-2025-08-13/

2025-08-13 11:46

LONDON, Aug 13 (Reuters) - The pound rose to three-week highs against the dollar on Wednesday, as investors grew increasingly convinced that U.S. interest rates are likely to fall more quickly than British ones, following a benign reading of U.S. inflation. Data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer prices rose by an annual 2.7% in July, compared with expectations for 2.8%. Sign up here. An underlying measure of inflation that excludes food and energy rose more quickly than forecast, up 3.1% year-on-year, versus expectations for a rate of 3%, reflecting the increased cost of some goods and services, as tariffs started to kick in. Sterling , which has gained 8.3% this year against the dollar, was last up 0.5% at $1.3569, having hit a session peak of $1.3578, the most since July 25. The pound has risen by nearly 2.4% in August against the dollar, which, if maintained, would be the largest monthly increase since April. Money markets show traders fully expect the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs in September and see a strong possibility of further easing by year-end, following the CPI data. Last week's employment report showed the U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected between May and July, putting a September rate cut firmly on the table. In contrast, UK labour data on Tuesday showed weakness in hiring but persistent wage growth, a positive for British consumers but a headache for the Bank of England, which is juggling the risks of a slowing economy and stubborn inflation. The BoE last week cut rates, but signalled concern over the outlook for UK inflation. Traders now think the next BoE cut might only come in November. If both scenarios play out, UK rates would end the year roughly on a par with U.S. ones, around 3.7-3.8%, which, in theory, removes some of the dollar's competitive advantage against sterling. Next up for UK markets is gross domestic product data on Thursday, which economists expect to show the UK economy expanded by 0.1% in the three months to June, compared with an expansion of 0.7% in the first quarter, based on data from the Office for National Statistics. "Sterling's resilience underscores how sensitive the currency is to rate expectations. Tomorrow's flash Q2 GDP report is the next hurdle; we expect a slight uptick in quarterly growth, but any disappointment could prompt a reversal in recent gains," analysts at Monex said. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/sterling-edges-up-highest-level-since-july-rate-outlook-2025-08-13/

2025-08-13 11:22

IEA expects global supply to rise by 2.5 million bpd in 2025 Trims forecast for demand growth this year to 680,000 bpd Global crude refining runs will approach record high in August Implied surplus to approach 3 million bpd in 2026 LONDON, Aug 13 (Reuters) - World oil supply will rise more rapidly than expected this year and next as OPEC+ members further increase output and supply from outside the group grows, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday. Supply will rise by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from 2.1 million bpd previously forecast, the IEA, which advises industrialised countries, said in a monthly report, and by a further 1.9 million bpd next year. Sign up here. OPEC+ is adding more crude to the market after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies decided to unwind its most recent layer of output cuts more rapidly than earlier scheduled. The extra supply, along with concern about the economic impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs, has weighed on oil this year. Supply is rising far faster than demand in the IEA's view. It expects world oil demand to rise by 680,000 bpd this year and 700,000 bpd next year, both down 20,000 bpd from the previous forecast. "The latest data show lacklustre demand across the major economies and, with consumer confidence still depressed, a sharp rebound appears remote," the agency said in the report that linked its higher output forecast to increased OPEC+ production targets. "Oil market balances look ever more bloated." IEA demand forecasts are at the lower end of the industry range, as the agency expects a faster transition to renewable energy sources than some other forecasters. OPEC on Tuesday maintained its forecast for demand to rise by 1.29 million bpd this year - almost double the IEA figure. Oil prices extended losses after the IEA published its report at 0800 GMT, with Brent crude trading lower than $66 a barrel. IMPLIED SURPLUS TO RISE The report implies that supply may exceed demand by almost 3 million bpd next year, driven by growth from outside the wider OPEC+ group and a limited expansion in demand. Despite higher OPEC+ production, non-OPEC producers will continue to lead supply growth this year and next owing to rising output in the U.S., Canada, Brazil and Guyana, according to the IEA. Still, additional sanctions on Russia and Iran may curb supplies from the world’s third and fifth largest producers, the IEA said. The U.S. announced new sanctions on Iran last month and the European Union lowered a price cap for Russian oil as part of its latest sanctions on Moscow. "It is clear that something will have to give for the market to balance," the IEA said. Continued Chinese stockbuilding due to major institutional and policy developments aimed at enhancing energy security may help absorb the surplus, the agency said. This helped support prices earlier in the year, analysts have said. Despite lowering its demand forecast, the IEA expects global crude oil refining rates to approach a fresh all-time high of 85.6 million bpd in August, after reaching 84.9 million bpd in July. Global refinery runs will rise by 670,000 bpd to 83.6 million bpd in 2025 and by a further 470,000 bpd to 84 million bpd in 2026, driven by better than expected data for market economies grouped in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and China, the agency said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/world-oil-market-looks-more-bloated-after-opec-hike-iea-says-2025-08-13/