2025-08-13 10:54

Vote to cut key rate by 25 bps to 1.50% was unanimous BOT says policy to be accommodative going forward GDP to slow in H2 on tariff impact on businesses and consumption Governor Sethaput's last meeting, Vitai takes over in October BANGKOK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Thailand's central bank lowered its policy rate to a near three-year low on Wednesday to boost a slowing economy grappling with U.S. tariffs, falling prices and weak foreign tourist arrivals, with further policy easing seen later this year. As widely expected, the monetary committee unanimously cut the one-day repurchase rate (THCBIR=ECI) , opens new tab by 25 basis points to 1.50%, the lowest since late 2022. It was the fourth reduction in 10 months. Sign up here. The economy was expected to expand this year and next, close to earlier assessments of 2.3% and 1.7%, respectively, but U.S. trade policies would exacerbate structural problems and weaken competitiveness, with small businesses especially vulnerable, the Bank of Thailand said. "The committee views that monetary policy should be accommodative going forward to support the economy," it said. This year's growth forecast has some upside from a surge in exports, assistant governor Sakkapop Panyanukul told a press conference after Wednesday's decision. Exports, a key growth driver, grew 15% annually in first six months of 2025 as shippers raced to beat U.S. tariffs, but higher U.S. levies on most trading partners went into effect on August 7, with those on Thai imports set at 19%. The economy will slow in the second half, although there is little chance of a technical recession - or two consecutive quarterly contractions, Sakkapop added. The central bank is ready to ease further if the economy faces severe shocks, he said. "Weak economic growth remains the main reason for expecting more easing," said Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics, said in a note, predicting a further 50 basis-point cuts by the end of the year. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy also has struggled with weak consumption and high household debt, with analysts expecting rate reductions at reviews in October and December. Wednesday's meeting was the last for Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput. New Governor Vitai Ratanakorn, widely seen as dovish, will take over in October, and he has said rate cuts will support growth. "Led by the new BoT Governor, we expect the BoT to deepen its easing cycle further, cutting the policy rate to 1.00% by 1Q 2026," HSBC economist Aris Dacanay said in a note. Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of Capital Markets Research at Kasikornbank, expects a further cut in December. Sakkapop also said that the central bank will ensure that the baht currency moves in line with economic fundamentals. The baht reversed course to fall 0.1% after the announcement, while Thai stocks (.SETI) , opens new tab extended gains after the decision. Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said the rate cut will boost liquidity and help exporters by weakening the baht, which has firmed more than 6% against a softening U.S. dollar so far this year. In June, the BOT predicted 2025 economic growth of 2.3%, with export growth of 4%, after factoring in U.S. tariff rates of 18%. The economy expanded 2.5% last year, lagging peers. There are still uncertainties relating to U.S. tariffs on transshipments via Thailand from third countries. The United States was Thailand's biggest export market last year, accounting for 18.3% of total shipments, with a value of $55 billion. Consumer prices (THCPI=ECI) , opens new tab in July fell 0.7% from a year earlier, down for a fourth consecutive month, and below the central bank's target range of 1% to 3% for the fifth consecutive month. Headline inflation was subdued because of supply-side factors but there are no signs of deflation yet, Sakkapop said. In June, the central bank predicted headline inflation of 0.5% this year, with the core rate seen at 1%. Adding to the challenges is renewed political turmoil that could bring down , opens new tab Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra , opens new tab or the coalition government led by her Pheu Thai party. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailand-cuts-key-rate-near-three-year-low-growth-sputters-more-easing-expected-2025-08-13/

2025-08-13 10:53

LONDON, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday after the IEA noted supply overtaking demand this year, while investors awaited Friday's meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Brent crude futures fell 41 cents, or 0.6%, to $65.71 a barrel by 1037 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures edged down 50 cents, or 0.8% to $62.67. Sign up here. Both contracts settled lower on Tuesday. "The API oil inventory report last night together with a dovish oil market outlook from the IEA today weighed on prices," said UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo. The International Energy Agency on Wednesday raised its forecast for oil supply growth this year but lowered its demand forecast due to lacklustre fuel demand across the major economies. Meanwhile, in its monthly report on Tuesday OPEC+ raised its global oil demand forecast for next year and trimmed estimates of supply growth from the United States and other producers outside the wider group, pointing to a tighter market. "Were we to take an aggregate of the respective IEA and OPEC oil demand growth projections for 2025 at their respective bearish and bullish ends, even a modest middle figure say just north of 1 million bpd can easily be serviced by non-OPEC supply growth alone at the moment," said independent energy analyst Gaurav Sharma. "So, I don't see a bullish case for oil over the near-term horizon." Meanwhile, crude inventories in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, rose by 1.52 million barrels last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Gasoline inventories dropped while distillate inventories gained slightly. Analysts polled by Reuters expect today's Energy Information Administration report to show crude inventories fell by about 300,000 barrels last week. Trump and Putin are due to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending Russia's war in Ukraine, which has shaken oil markets since February 2022. "It's difficult to see what comes out of the meeting on Friday, particularly if the Europeans are not present in Alaska," Staunovo added. While Trump's administration has tried to temper expectations for major progress toward a ceasefire, calling the summit a "listening exercise", Ukraine and most European countries have said a lasting peace cannot be secured without Ukraine at the negotiating table. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-iea-raises-supply-forecast-investors-await-us-russia-meeting-2025-08-13/

2025-08-13 10:50

BENGALURU, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Indian gold loan financier Muthoot Finance (MUTT.NS) , opens new tab reported a bigger-than-expected 90% surge in first-quarter profit on Wednesday, aided by higher loan demand as prices of the precious metal soared. Muthoot Finance reported a profit of 20.46 billion rupees ($233.91 million) for the April-June quarter, above analysts' estimate of 16.24 billion rupees, per data compiled by LSEG. Sign up here. Gold prices hit multiple record highs during the quarter. This benefits gold financiers as higher prices increase the collateral value, allowing borrowers to secure larger loans for the same amount of gold. Additionally, tighter lending in the unsecured segment prompted people to shift to gold loans as an alternative source of funds, analysts said. Muthoot Finance's standalone loan assets under management rose 42% year-on-year to 1.2 trillion rupees at the end of the quarter, and interest income jumped about 53% to 55.92 billion rupees. "We are well-positioned to sustain strong growth through fiscal 2026 and beyond," Managing Director George Alexander Muthoot said in a statement. The company also approved equity infusion of 5 billion rupees and 2 billion rupees in its units, Muthoot Money and Muthoot Homefin, respectively. ($1 = 87.4710 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-muthoot-finance-beats-quarterly-profit-view-strong-loan-growth-2025-08-13/

2025-08-13 10:49

Vestas second quarter profit lags forecast Orders dropped in Q2, but are up for Q3 Keeps 2025 outlook despite US trade policy uncertainty Shares down 2.3%, up 16% year-to-date COPENHAGEN, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Danish wind turbine maker Vestas (VWS.CO) , opens new tab swung to a profit in the second quarter from a loss a year before, maintaining its financial outlook for 2025 on expectations it could overcome the impact of U.S. policy uncertainty. Vestas reported an April-June operating profit before one-off items of 57 million euros ($66.56 million) on Wednesday, below the 89 million expected by analysts but up from a loss of 185 million euros in the corresponding period of 2024. Sign up here. Risk from tariffs and U.S. shifts on renewables policy was offset by good order momentum in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, as well as by local production and an ability to pass on costs, the company said. Several analysts indicated that the lower-than-expected quarterly operating profit was not a major concern. The U.S. is the biggest national market after the EMEA region for Vestas, which also sells widely in Asia and is the largest wind turbine maker outside of China. The company's order intake for new wind turbines declined 44% year-on-year to 2,009 megawatts (MW) in the second quarter, but still beat an average forecast among analysts of 1,860 MW. The order intake has since rebounded, including in the U.S. where renewable developments continue despite efforts by President Donald Trump to curtail incentives for wind and solar energy, CEO Henrik Andersen told Reuters. "Already now at this time in the third quarter, we are higher in order intake ... than we were for the full order in the second quarter," Andersen said. Vestas kept its 2025 forecast unchanged for an operating profit margin before special items of 4%-7% and revenue of 18 billion to 20 billion euros, up from 17.3 billion euros in 2024. While tariffs remain an uncertainty, Vestas' local production made it less vulnerable to measures imposed by the United States, Andersen said. The company expects to pass on tariffs to customers, which will ultimately raise the price of electricity, he added. The company's shares traded down 2.3% by 1029 GMT, and are up 16% year-to-date. "There is of course some regulatory uncertainty in the U.S., but right now Trump is not interfering with setting up wind turbines. However, the future is still uncertain," Sydbank analyst Jakob Pedersen said. ($1 = 0.8564 euros) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/vestas-swings-second-quarter-profit-keeps-outlook-2025-08-13/

2025-08-13 10:41

LONDON, Aug 13 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. U.S. July inflation data didn't sound the all clear on tariffs but also didn’t send an unequivocal signal about the longer-term impacts either – and that seemed to be enough to goose Fed easing expectations, spur Wall St stocks to new records and sink volatility gauges. Futures markets are now fully convinced another quarter point rate cut is coming next month and they're almost halfway priced to three cuts by the end of the year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq raced more than 1% higher on Tuesday, the VIX "fear index" sank to the lowest of the year and futures are up again ahead of today's bell. * Bond market volatility cratered to its lowest in more than 3-1/2 years, even as "core" inflation rose back above 3% for the first time in five months, as Treasury yields fell across the curve and the dollar index ebbed to its weakest in more than a fortnight. President Trump again lambasted Fed chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates more quickly and threatened a "major lawsuit" against him, while also hitting out at Goldman Sachs boss David Solomon and its chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius for the bank's research on tariffs and forecasts. * Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent talked about the Fed possibly cutting rates 50 basis points next month "to make up for the delay" and was hopeful the latest Trump appointee to the Fed board, White House advisor Stephen Miran, could be confirmed by the Fed's September meeting. Meantime, the White House said the plan was to continue publishing monthly employment statistics even though Trump's pick to head the embattled Bureau of Labor Statistics, E.J. Antoni, said this month that the BLS should suspend monthly payrolls releases until data problems were fixed - and rely instead on quarterly reports. * Once again, tech stocks led the charge higher on Wall Street on Tuesday. Alphabet shares rose 1.2% as Perplexity made a $34.5 billion cash offer to buy the company's Chrome browser and Intel climbed 5% after Trump met CEO Lip-Bu Tan and praised him, after claiming only last week that Tan was compromised due to Chinese links. European and Asia shares were higher, with Japan's Nikkei hitting a record high, and eyes are now shifting to the U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska on Friday for clues about a possible Ukraine ceasefire. Make sure to check out today's column, where I consider whether the now government-blessed "stablecoin" explosion will juice or destabilise the economy. Today's Market Minute * U.S. authorities have secretly placed location tracking devices in targeted shipments of advanced chips they see as being at high risk of illegal diversion to China, according to two people with direct knowledge. * Perplexity AI made a $34.5 billion unsolicited all-cash offer for Alphabet's Chrome browser on Tuesday, a bid far above its own valuation as the startup reaches for the browser's billions of users pivotal to the AI search race. * Investors have faced several counterintuitive swings this year, including the dollar's plunge and record highs in bitcoin and U.S. stocks. Now, writes ROI columnist Jamie McGeever, we can add another to that list: the stellar outperformance of Latin American currencies against the dollar. * Overcapacity has made its way into China’s domestic market, with price wars leading to collapsing profitability and accelerating deflation. The government has responded by launching a so-called “anti-involution” program. It’s had some early wins, but this could be a lengthy battle, claims Emmer Capital Partners Ltd founder Manishi Raychaudhuri. * The pace of new capacity of U.S. solar, wind and battery systems has slowed nationally and in key states this year, weighing on sentiment surrounding clean energy. But, writes ROI columnist Gavin Maguire, climate trackers can take heart from the continued growth outside Texas and California. Chart of the day Wall Street "fear gauges" are plunging, with the VIX index measuring one-month implied volatility in the S&P500 plumbing its lowest levels of the year and the equivalent Treasury market MOVE index at its lowest since January 2022. Today's events to watch * Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee both speak * U.S. corporate earnings: Cisco Systems Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-08-13/

2025-08-13 10:24

MUMBAI, Aug 13 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee gained the most in more than a month on Wednesday as softer U.S. inflation data bolstered hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, weighing on the dollar. The local currency unit gained 0.31% - its highest intraday gain since July 3 - and closed at 87.4400, compared to Tuesday's close of 87.7125. Sign up here. U.S. inflation data released on Tuesday showed consumer prices rose modestly in the world's largest economy in July, with impact from recent tariffs staying limited. This provided a boost to emerging market currencies including the Indian rupee, as the odds for a September rate cut from the Fed climbed to 94%. Markets are now pricing in 60 basis points of cuts this year, lifting risk appetite among investors. Investor confidence in the dollar was further dented after the White House said President Donald Trump was weighing legal action against Fed Chair Jerome Powell over his handling of renovations at the central bank's headquarters. The dollar index was down 0.4% at 97.645 at 1544 IST. “For the USD/INR pair, the outlook is bearish for the next couple of days," said Jigar Trivedi, senior currency and commodity analyst at Reliance Securities. The uncertainty over U.S. tariffs remains the dominant drag on sentiment, Trivedi said, adding that the upcoming Trump-Putin summit in Alaska on Friday is a key risk event that could sway the currency’s direction. The stakes of the meeting, which aims to explore a resolution to the war in Ukraine, are high for the rupee. Market participants expect any resolution to the conflict to have a bearing on additional tariffs that President Trump has imposed on Indian goods in response to New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil. Meanwhile, most Asian currencies advanced, with the Indonesian rupiah and the Malaysian ringgit up 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively, and the South Korean won rising 0.5%. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-rupee-rises-most-month-broad-dollar-weakness-2025-08-13/