2025-12-11 12:32

Surplus to reach 3.84 million bpd in 2026, down 250,000 bpd from last month Supply growth forecast lowered on sanctions disruptions Brighter macroeconomic outlook supports demand, IEA says Parallel markets of ample crude but tight fuel markets to continue LONDON, Dec 11 (Reuters) - The International Energy Agency trimmed its forecast of next year's global oil supply glut for the first time since May on Thursday, flagging higher demand prospects due to a stronger world economy and lower supply from nations under sanctions. Oil prices have been under pressure for months due to predictions from the IEA, which advises industrialised countries, and other analysts of a looming glut. Sign up here. Global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day, according to figures from the Paris-based IEA's latest monthly oil market report, down from a 4.09 million bpd surplus estimated in November. A surplus of almost 4 million bpd is still equal to almost 4% of world demand and is at the higher end of analysts' predictions. Oil was trading lower on Thursday, with Brent crude - down over 15% in 2025 - trading below $62 a barrel. Supply rose sharply this year boosted by output hikes from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners - a group known as OPEC+ - as well as growth in the United States and other producers. OPEC+ has now paused output increases for the first quarter of 2026. HIGHER DEMAND AS TARIFF JITTERS SUBSIDE The IEA revised up its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next due to an improving macroeconomic outlook and with "anxiety about tariffs having largely subsided". World oil demand is expected to rise in 2026 by 860,000 bpd, up 90,000 bpd from last month's outlook, the IEA said. It raised its 2025 forecast by 40,000 bpd to 830,000 bpd. "Falling oil prices and the lower U.S. dollar, both currently near four-year lows, act as a further tailwind for oil demand next year," the IEA said, adding that demand growth in 2025 has come almost entirely from non-OECD countries, which are more reliant on macroeconomic conditions. A spate of breakthroughs with U.S. trade deals had helped put economic sentiment back on track after tariff-related tensions hit consumption earlier this year, the IEA said. SUPPLY LOWER AS SANCTIONS HIT RUSSIAN, VENEZUELAN EXPORTS The agency expects supply growth to be slightly lower than previously anticipated in 2025-2026, as sanctions on Russia and Venezuela hit exports. The IEA expects global oil supply to rise by 2.4 million bpd next year, having last month predicted supply growth of 2.5 million bpd. The IEA revised down its 2025 and 2026 output forecasts for OPEC+ producers, largely because of sanctions disruptions. Global oil supply fell by 610,000 bpd on the month in November, the IEA said, on declining output from sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela. Russian export revenues hit their lowest in November since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the IEA said. The IEA kept its forecasts for non-OPEC+ output stable for this year and next on rising production in the Americas, namely the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina. A trend of "parallel markets", where ample crude supply is juxtaposed with tight fuel markets, is likely to persist for some time, it said, amid limited spare refining capacity outside China and EU sanctions on Russian crude-derived fuel exports. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iea-trims-global-oil-market-surplus-forecast-2026-2025-12-11/

2025-12-11 12:06

BRUSSELS, Dec 11 (Reuters) - The European Union reached a provisional agreement on Thursday on new rules to require all its members to screen foreign investment into the bloc in sensitive sectors such as defence, AI or critical minerals and determine if they threaten economic security. Representatives of the European Parliament and the Council, the grouping of EU governments, reached an agreement on a text to revise its existing FDI screening regulations. Both bodies will still have to approve the text. Sign up here. The revision will require all EU countries to screen and possibly block investments if they pose a security risk. Screening will also extend to investments within the EU if the investor is controlled by a foreign company. The initial proposal did not name any country, but contrasts "reliable partners" with "countries of concern" and highlights "de-risking", the bloc's policy of reducing economic reliance on China, which has placed curbs on exports of rare earths and chips. Screening will be required for foreign investments in military and dual-use equipment, 'hyper-critical' technologies such as AI, quantum technologies and semiconductors, critical raw materials, critical energy, transport of digital infrastructure and voter systems or databases. Central counterparties, central securities depositories, operators of regulated markets or payment systems and systemically important financial institutions are also included. Screening decisions remain the responsibility of the EU member where the investment is being made, but the European Commission can give its opinion. "Today’s agreement strengthens the EU’s capacity to protect its security and public order, while ensuring Europe remains an attractive destination for investors," Danish Business and Industry Minister, Morten Bodskov, whose country holds the rotating EU presidency, said in a statement. https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-council-parliament-agree-foreign-direct-investment-regulation-2025-12-11/

2025-12-11 12:03

Kwon sentenced to 15 years in prison Judge rebukes Kwon for repeatedly lying to investors Kwon expected to face charges in South Korea NEW YORK, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Do Kwon, the South Korean cryptocurrency entrepreneur behind two digital currencies that lost an estimated $40 billion in 2022, was sentenced on Thursday to 15 years in prison for what a judge called an "epic fraud." U.S. District Judge Paul A. Engelmayer, who handed down the sentence, sharply rebuked Kwon for repeatedly lying to everyday investors who trusted him with their life savings. Sign up here. "This was a fraud on an epic, generational scale. In the history of federal prosecutions, there are few frauds that have caused as much harm as you have, Mr. Kwon," Engelmayer said during a hearing in Manhattan federal court. Kwon, 34, who co-founded Singapore-based Terraform Labs and developed the TerraUSD and Luna currencies, previously pleaded guilty and admitted to misleading investors about a coin that was supposed to maintain a steady price during periods of crypto market volatility. He is one of several cryptocurrency moguls to face federal charges after a slump in digital token prices in 2022 prompted the collapse of a number of companies. Dressed in yellow prison garb, Kwon addressed the court and apologized to his victims, including the hundreds who submitted letters to the court describing the harm they had suffered. "All of their stories were harrowing and reminded me again of the great losses that I’ve caused. I want to tell these victims that I am sorry," Kwon said. Ayyildiz Attila, one of the hundreds of victims who submitted letters to the court, said he lost between $400,000 and $500,000 in the collapse. "My savings, my future, and the results of years of sacrifice disappeared. I struggled to keep up with payments and responsibilities, and everything I had worked for was erased," Attila said. Kwon's lawyer Sean Hecker said in an email after the sentencing that Kwon spoke from the heart, expressed genuine remorse and will continue his efforts to make amends. U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton in Manhattan said in a statement following the hearing that Kwon devised elaborate schemes to inflate the value of his cryptocurrencies and fled accountability when his crimes caught up to him. Prosecutors had asked for a sentence of at least 12 years in prison, saying the crash of Kwon’s Terra cryptocurrency caused billions of dollars in losses and triggered a cascade of crises in the crypto market. Kwon’s lawyers had asked that he be sentenced to no more than five years so he can return to South Korea to face criminal charges. Prosecutors charged Kwon in January with nine criminal counts for securities fraud, wire fraud, commodities fraud and money laundering conspiracy. Kwon was accused of misleading investors in 2021 about TerraUSD, a so-called stablecoin designed to maintain a value of $1. Prosecutors alleged that when TerraUSD slipped below its $1 peg in May 2021, Kwon told investors a computer algorithm known as "Terra Protocol" had restored the coin's value. Instead, Kwon arranged for a high-frequency trading firm to secretly buy millions of dollars of the token to artificially prop up its price, according to charging documents. Kwon pleaded guilty in August to two counts, conspiracy to defraud and wire fraud, and apologized in court for his conduct. "I made false and misleading statements about why it regained its peg by failing to disclose a trading firm's role in restoring that peg," Kwon said at the time. "What I did was wrong." Kwon agreed in 2024 to pay $80 million as a civil fine and be banned from crypto transactions as part of a $4.55 billion settlement he and Terraform reached with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. He also faces charges in South Korea. As part of his plea deal, prosecutors will not oppose Kwon's potential application to be transferred abroad after serving half his U.S. sentence. https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/terrausd-creator-do-kwon-be-sentenced-over-40-billion-crypto-collapse-2025-12-11/

2025-12-11 12:02

ACCRA, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Ghana has banned mining in forest reserves as part of sweeping environmental protections aimed at safeguarding water bodies and halting deforestation, the Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology said. Africa’s top gold producer is battling a surge in poorly regulated small-scale mining that is destroying cocoa farms, degrading forests and rivers, and heightening sustainability risks for its mining sector, sparking protests. Sign up here. Industrial miners report frequent incursions by illegal operators onto concessions, forcing key operators like Gold Fields (GFIJ.J) , opens new tab, AngloGold Ashanti (AU.N) , opens new tab, Newmont (NEM.N) , opens new tab and Asante Gold (ASE.V) , opens new tab to ramp up investments in security systems, surveillance drones, and community engagement programmes. Illegal mining now spans 13 of Ghana's 16 regions, including key cocoa belts in Ashanti, Western and Eastern, according to government data. Authorities have been overhauling the sector by licensing artisanal miners, creating community schemes, and deploying security to curb illegal mining and gold trading. The Environmental Protection (Mining in Forest Reserves) Regulations, introduced in 2022, allowed controlled mining in forest reserves. The repeal took effect this week after a 21-day constitutional period and will give the world’s second-largest cocoa producer stronger legal tools to protect forests, water sources and farmland, the ministry said in a statement late Wednesday. “Healthy forests bring rainfall, protect our farms, and give life to our communities. Clean rivers secure our drinking water and our future,” Acting Environment Minister Emmanuel Armah-Kofi Buah said. The move marks a major shift in Ghana’s environmental policy, restoring protections for forests after it opened nearly 90% of reserves to mining, said Daryl Mensah-Bonsu of Da Rocha Ghana, an environmental advocacy. “The repeal alone will not be the panacea ... We now have an opportunity to address teething issues of encroachment from logging and farming and to put in place a national forest development programme to restore and grow our forests to serve present and future generations." https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/ghana-bans-mining-forest-reserves-curb-environmental-damage-2025-12-11/

2025-12-11 12:02

TSX ends up 0.5% at 31,660.73 Eclipses Wednesday's record closing high Materials group rises 3.1% as gold prices jump TerraVest Industries surges 22.3% after quarterly results TORONTO, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index rose on Thursday to another record high as metal prices increased and investors cheered upbeat domestic economic data. The S&P/TSX Composite Index (.GSPTSE) , opens new tab ended up 169.88 points, or 0.5%, at 31,660.73, surpassing its record closing high on Wednesday. Sign up here. "Incremental data that's been coming in for the Canadian economy recently has been quite positive, and that's helping this leg of the rally," said Elvis Picardo, a senior portfolio manager at Luft Financial, iA Private Wealth. "It shows that despite all the doom and gloom about the impact of tariffs the economy is weathering the storm quite nicely." Canada posted a monthly international trade surplus in September, reversing a trend of seven consecutive months of deficits. On Wednesday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the economy was proving resilient overall to the effect of U.S. trade measures, as the central bank left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 2.25%. The TSX is also "benefiting from the perception that it's a diversified play, and if I look at year-to-date performance, it's spread across the four big groups that make up much of the index, unlike in the U.S., where the advance seems to be much more concentrated in tech," Picardo said. Financials, energy, technology and materials, which account for 77% of the TSX's market capitalization, have all notched gains since the start of 2025. The materials group (.GSPTTMT) , opens new tab rose 3.1% on Thursday, and has nearly doubled on a year-to-date basis, as gold and copper prices climbed. Industrials (.GSPTTIN) , opens new tab added 0.5% and financials (.SPTTFS) , opens new tab ended 0.4% higher. Shares of TerraVest Industries Inc (TVK.TO) , opens new tab jumped 22.3% after the home heating products company reported fourth-quarter results. Still, the energy sector ended 0.7% lower as the price of oil settled down 1.5% at $57.60 a barrel. Technology stocks (.SPTTTK) , opens new tab also were a drag, falling 1%, after Oracle's (ORCL.N) , opens new tab quarterly results and forecast disappointed investors and revived concerns about an AI bubble. Shares of Empire Company (EMPa.TO) , opens new tab dropped 9.2% after the company reported a decline in second-quarter earnings per share compared to the previous year. https://www.reuters.com/business/tsx-futures-edge-down-tech-jitters-weigh-2025-12-11/

2025-12-11 11:54

NAIROBI, Dec 11 (Reuters) - South Sudan has sent its troops to neighbouring Sudan to guard the strategic Heglig oil field near the border, its military head said on Thursday, days after the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) took control of it. Heglig houses the main processing facility for South Sudanese oil, which makes up the bulk of South Sudan's public revenues. Some oil has continued to flow through Heglig, though at much reduced volumes. Sign up here. Sudanese government forces and workers at the Heglig oil field withdrew from the area on Sunday to avoid fighting that could have damaged facilities there, government sources told Reuters on Monday. General Paul Nang, South Sudan chief of defence forces, said the troop deployment was agreed between South Sudan's President Salva Kiir, Sudan Army Chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF head Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. "The three agreed that the area of Heglig should be protected because (it) is a very important strategic area for the two countries," Nang said in comments on state-owned South Sudan Broadcasting Radio. "Now it is the forces of South Sudan that are in Heglig." Oil is transported through the Greater Nile pipeline system to Port Sudan on the Red Sea for export, making the Heglig site critical both for Sudan's foreign exchange earnings and for South Sudan, which is landlocked and relies almost entirely on pipelines through Sudan. Another pipeline, Petrodar, runs from South Sudan's Upper Nile State to Port Sudan. The war that started in April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the RSF has repeatedly disrupted South Sudan's oil flows, which before the conflict averaged between 100,000 and 150,000 barrels per day for export via Sudan. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-sudan-says-its-troops-are-guarding-strategic-heglig-oil-field-sudan-2025-12-11/