2025-08-11 07:02

Risk-on mood spurs further declines for U.S. currency Traders expect extension of U.S.-China tariff truce Bitcoin closes in on record high, ether surges SINGAPORE, Aug 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar extended declines on Monday as investors watched for the outcome of events due this week, from Tuesday's key July U.S. CPI data and deadline for Washington and Beijing to strike a tariff deal, to a Russia-U.S. summit on Friday. The dollar index fell 0.2% to 98.073 after last week's fall of 0.4%. Against the yen, it traded at 147.46 , or 0.20% weaker than late U.S. levels, with Japanese markets closed for the Mountain Day holiday. Sign up here. "If I'd be playing it any way, I'd be long volatility this week," said Tim Kelleher, head of institutional FX Sales at Commonwealth Bank in Auckland, citing the unpredictability of the looming events. Crypto markets surged, with bitcoin rising 3% to $121,909.06, not far from its July 14 record of $123,153.22, after President Donald Trump's executive order on Thursday freed up cryptocurrency holdings in U.S. retirement accounts. Ether was up 2.1% at $4,307.25, after touching its highest since December 2021 earlier in the session. Trade talks were also in focus as Trump's August 12 deadline for a deal between the U.S. and China neared, particularly on chip policy. "The market has fully priced in the idea that we're going to get an extension," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd in Melbourne, adding that another 90-day truce was most likely. With the U.S. and China seeking to close a deal averting triple-digit goods tariffs, a U.S. official told Reuters that chip makers Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab and AMD (AMD.O) , opens new tab agreed to allocate 15% of China sales revenues to the U.S. government, aiming to secure export licences for semiconductors. "I don't know if that's going to be a good thing or a bad thing, but if it puts closure on the matter, it's not a bad outcome," Weston said. "If this is Trump says 15% and we'll call it a day, that may not be too bad." The report followed a warning that Nvidia's H20 chips pose security concerns for China, a social media account linked to state media said on Sunday. The offshore yuan fluctuated between gains and losses, trading at 7.184 to the dollar, after weekend data showed China's producer prices fell more than expected in July, while consumer prices were unchanged. The Australian dollar fetched $0.6526 , trading flat ahead of a rate decision by the central bank on Tuesday, in which it is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.60%, after second-quarter inflation missed expectations and the jobless rate hit a 3-1/2-year high. The kiwi was little changed at $0.59545 , while the British pound traded at $1.3465, up 0.1% so far on the day. Elsewhere, personnel moves at key U.S. monetary policy institutions were also in focus. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the new Federal Reserve chair should be someone "who can examine the whole organisation" as the Fed's mission covered many things outside of monetary policy and put its independence at risk, Japan's Nikkei newspaper said. Among candidates the Trump administration is interviewing to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics is E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, the Wall Street Journal said, citing a senior administration official. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/dollar-slips-before-inflation-report-us-china-tariff-deadline-2025-08-11/

2025-08-11 07:02

Risk-on mood spurs further declines for U.S. currency Traders expect extension of U.S.-China tariff truce Bitcoin closes in on record high, ether surges SINGAPORE, Aug 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar extended declines on Monday as investors watched for the outcome of events due this week, from Tuesday's key July U.S. CPI data and deadline for Washington and Beijing to strike a tariff deal, to a Russia-U.S. summit on Friday. The dollar index fell 0.2% to 98.073 after last week's fall of 0.4%. Against the yen, it traded at 147.46 , or 0.20% weaker than late U.S. levels, with Japanese markets closed for the Mountain Day holiday. Sign up here. "If I'd be playing it any way, I'd be long volatility this week," said Tim Kelleher, head of institutional FX Sales at Commonwealth Bank in Auckland, citing the unpredictability of the looming events. Crypto markets surged, with bitcoin rising 3% to $121,909.06, not far from its July 14 record of $123,153.22, after President Donald Trump's executive order on Thursday freed up cryptocurrency holdings in U.S. retirement accounts. Ether was up 2.1% at $4,307.25, after touching its highest since December 2021 earlier in the session. Trade talks were also in focus as Trump's August 12 deadline for a deal between the U.S. and China neared, particularly on chip policy. "The market has fully priced in the idea that we're going to get an extension," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd in Melbourne, adding that another 90-day truce was most likely. With the U.S. and China seeking to close a deal averting triple-digit goods tariffs, a U.S. official told Reuters that chip makers Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab and AMD (AMD.O) , opens new tab agreed to allocate 15% of China sales revenues to the U.S. government, aiming to secure export licences for semiconductors. "I don't know if that's going to be a good thing or a bad thing, but if it puts closure on the matter, it's not a bad outcome," Weston said. "If this is Trump says 15% and we'll call it a day, that may not be too bad." The report followed a warning that Nvidia's H20 chips pose security concerns for China, a social media account linked to state media said on Sunday. The offshore yuan fluctuated between gains and losses, trading at 7.184 to the dollar, after weekend data showed China's producer prices fell more than expected in July, while consumer prices were unchanged. The Australian dollar fetched $0.6526 , trading flat ahead of a rate decision by the central bank on Tuesday, in which it is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.60%, after second-quarter inflation missed expectations and the jobless rate hit a 3-1/2-year high. The kiwi was little changed at $0.59545 , while the British pound traded at $1.3465, up 0.1% so far on the day. Elsewhere, personnel moves at key U.S. monetary policy institutions were also in focus. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the new Federal Reserve chair should be someone "who can examine the whole organisation" as the Fed's mission covered many things outside of monetary policy and put its independence at risk, Japan's Nikkei newspaper said. Among candidates the Trump administration is interviewing to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics is E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, the Wall Street Journal said, citing a senior administration official. (This story has been corrected to clarify the range of the week's events, in paragraph 1) https://www.reuters.com/world/china/forex-dollar-slips-before-inflation-report-us-china-tariff-deadline-2025-08-11/

2025-08-11 06:51

JAKARTA, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Indonesia reaffirmed a plan to raise the mandatory palm oil content in its biodiesel to 50% starting from next year, but the programme known as B50 is unlikely to start in January, senior energy ministry official Eniya Listiani Dewi told reporters on Monday. Indonesia currently implements a mandatory bio content of 40% (B40) and is working to increase the amount of palm oil in the blend in a bid to reduce its reliance on imported fossil fuels. Sign up here. The government will carry out a number of tests for the new 50% blend, which may take up to eight months, Eniya said. "The minister and deputy minister have set a plan for 2026 (implementation), but the month has not been decided yet," she said, adding that they will adjust the timeline based on these technical preparations. It was unclear when the tests will begin. Indonesia's plan to expand the use of palm oil for energy often affects global prices of the vegetable oil by sparking concerns that the world's top palm oil exporter will have less to ship overseas as it tries to meet its domestic energy needs. Indonesia has allocated 15.6 million kilolitres of palm oil fuel this year for the B40 programme, up from 13.2 million kilolitres consumed a year earlier. B50 implementation may require up 19 million kilolitres of palm oil fuel a year, biodiesel producers group APROBI previously estimated. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/indonesia-aims-launch-b50-biodiesel-2026-unlikely-january-2025-08-11/

2025-08-11 06:42

LDP debates holding rare leadership race, timing uncertain If not held in September, race could be put off till next year Some in LDP see Ishiba's resignation as inevitable BOJ may favour avoiding unwanted political attention TOKYO, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Japan's deepening political uncertainty risks prolonging policy paralysis that could affect the drafting of next year's budget and the timing of the central bank's next interest rate hike, analysts say, clouding the outlook for the fragile economy. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is facing increased calls from within his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to step down and take responsibility for the party's huge defeat in an upper house election in July and a lower house poll last year. Sign up here. While Ishiba has denied he has any plans to resign, his fading support has triggered inevitable questions about his political future and analysts say a leadership change would likely have implications for the outlook for fiscal and monetary policy. In a meeting on Friday, lawmakers decided to consider holding a rare leadership race even with the party head Ishiba still presiding. Under LDP rules, such a race would take place if the majority of the party's lawmakers and regional heads agreed to hold one. But it is uncertain how long it would take for the party to decide, according to lawmakers and government officials familiar with the procedure told Reuters. That contest could happen in September at the earliest, they say, which would allow the new administration to compile a spending package to cushion the economic blow from U.S. tariffs. But if the race does not take place in September, it may have to wait until early next year to avoid disrupting the government's drafting of next fiscal year's budget, they say. "We would not be surprised if the LDP calls for a leadership election in September," UBS analysts said in a research note. "It seems that uncertainties regarding politics are unlikely to resolve soon." In Japan, the Ministry of Finance collects spending requests from ministries in August and finalises the government's draft budget in late December. The budget must pass parliament in time to take effect from the April start of a new fiscal year. Failure to pass the budget through parliament would force the government to compile a stop-gap budget, which could hurt the economy by causing delays in expenditure. Some ruling party lawmakers say there is no choice but for Ishiba to step down to resolve the deadlock. Having lost control in both houses of parliament, the LDP-led ruling coalition needs opposition party support to pass legislation and budget through parliament. Opposition parties have ruled out forming a coalition unless Ishiba steps down. "Japan needs a stable coalition government. Otherwise, it's impossible to pursue consistent policies," LDP heavyweight Ken Saito told Reuters last week. "It's best for the LDP to seek a coalition partner under a new leader." COMPLICATION FOR BOJ Ishiba's weak political standing and prolonged political uncertainty also complicate the Bank of Japan's decision on how soon to resume interest rate hikes. While few analysts expect the BOJ to hike rates at its next policy meeting in September, some see a good chance of action in October, December or January next year when more data becomes available on the impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy. Known as a fiscal hawk, Ishiba has endorsed the central bank's efforts to gradually wean the economy off a decade-long, massive stimulus as inflation remains above its 2% target for well over three years. But his bitter election defeat has made his administration vulnerable to calls for big spending and loose monetary policy. Many opposition parties have urged the BOJ to hold off, or go slow, in raising rates and focus on supporting the economy. If the LDP were to hold a leadership race, the event could put the spotlight on the views of candidates like Sanae Takaichi, a reflationist-minded lawmaker who in the past blasted the idea of interest rate hikes as "stupid." All this could discourage the BOJ from raising rates in coming months to avoid drawing unwanted political attention. "All we can say is that we would continue to take appropriate policies to sustainably and stably achieve our 2% inflation target," Governor Kazuo Ueda told a news briefing earlier this month, when asked how the BOJ would respond if political changes lead to fresh demands on monetary policy. "It's impossible to predict how politics will unfold, which means for the BOJ it's best to take a wait-and-see stance," said a source familiar with the bank's thinking. https://www.reuters.com/business/japans-deepening-political-woes-cloud-budget-rate-hike-timing-2025-08-11/

2025-08-11 06:41

Trump-Putin talks on August 15 raise sanctions relief prospects India steps up US crude buy, WTI arbitrage to Asia stay open China producer prices fall more than expected in July NEW DELHI, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Monday, extending declines of more than 4% last week as investors awaited the outcome of talks between the U.S. and Russia later this week on the war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures fell 62 cents, or 0.93%, to $65.97 a barrel by 0631 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 69 cents, or 1.08%, to $63.19. Sign up here. Expectations have risen for a potential end to sanctions that have limited the supply of Russian oil to international markets, after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that he would meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. The talks follow increased U.S. pressure on Russia, raising the prospect that penalties on Moscow could also be tightened if a peace deal is not reached. "If peace talks falter and the conflict drags on, the market could quickly pivot to a bullish stance, potentially triggering a sharp rally in oil prices," said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, a New Delhi-based research firm. Trump set a deadline of last Friday for Russia, which invaded Ukraine in February 2022, to agree to peace or have its oil buyers face secondary sanctions. At the same time, Washington is pressing India to reduce purchases of Russian oil. Consultancy Energy Aspects estimated Indian refiners have already purchased WTI totalling 5 million barrels for August loadings, with an incremental 5 million barrels possible depending on tender outcomes, and 5 million barrels for September loadings. WTI arbitrage to Asia remains open, and India looks set to continue absorbing U.S. crude for now, Energy Aspects said in a weekly note. Trump's higher tariffs on imports from dozens of countries, which took effect on Thursday, are expected to weigh on economic activity as they force changes to supply chains and fuel higher inflation. Dragged down by the gloomy economic outlook, Brent fell 4.4% over the week ended Friday, while WTI dropped 5.1%. "The near-term direction will hinge on several key events, including the August 15 meeting between the U.S. and Russian presidents, upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and the release of the U.S. CPI data," said Sachdeva. Separately, data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday showed China’s producer prices fell more than expected in July, while consumer prices remained flat, highlighting the extent to which weak domestic demand and ongoing trade uncertainty are weighing on consumer and business sentiment. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-dips-markets-focus-us-russia-peace-talks-2025-08-11/

2025-08-11 06:33

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Malaysia's palm oil stocks rose for a fifth consecutive month in July to their highest level in almost two years as production growth outpaced exports, data from the industry regulator showed on Monday. The rise in inventory in the world's second-biggest producer of the tropical oil could weigh on benchmark Malaysian futures , which were trading near their highest in nearly four months. Sign up here. Palm oil inventories at the end of July rose 4.02% over the month to 2.11 million metric tons, the highest since December 2023, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed. Crude palm oil production was up 7.09% in July from June to 1.81 million tons, the highest since September last year, while palm oil exports increased by 3.82% to 1.31 million tons after a large fall in June, the MPOB said. A Reuters survey had forecast Malaysian inventory at 2.25 million tons, with output seen at 1.83 million tons and exports at 1.3 million tons. PALM/POLL Malaysian July exports were capped by aggressive selling at a discount by rival Indonesia, which wanted to ship as much as possible before a higher export duty becomes effective in August, said Tajgir Rahman, general manager, trading and procurement at IFFCO. Exports from Malaysia will rise in August, as Indonesia's move to raise its export tax narrows the discounts that Indonesian shipments had been enjoying over Malaysian supplies, he said. Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first ten days of August rose 23.3% compared to the first ten days of July, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Sunday. The rise in palm oil stocks is not burdensome for the market, as production in August is underperforming, while exports are picking up, said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group. Following is a breakdown of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board figures and Reuters estimates for July (volumes in tons): *indicates revised figures by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/malaysias-palm-oil-stocks-rise-highest-nearly-two-years-2025-08-11/