2025-08-08 20:00

US, Russia aim to reach a deal to halt the war in Ukraine Latest US tariffs raise concerns over economic activity Trump threatens further sanctions on buyers of Russian oil US oil rig count rises by one to 411 HOUSTON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Oil largely held steady on Friday as markets awaited a meeting in coming days between Russian president Vladimir Putin and his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump, but prices marked their steepest weekly losses since late June on a tariff-hit economic outlook. Brent crude futures settled 16 cents, or 0.2%, higher at $66.59 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were unchanged at $63.88. Sign up here. Brent fell 4.4% over the week, while WTI finished 5.1% lower than last Friday's close. U.S. crude had fallen over 1% after reports that Washington and Moscow were aiming to reach a deal to halt the war in Ukraine that would lock in Russia's occupation of territory seized during its military invasion, Bloomberg News reported on Friday. U.S. and Russian officials are working towards an agreement on territories for a planned summit meeting between Trump and Putin as early as next week, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter. The potential meeting raises expectations of a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine, which could lead to eased sanctions on Russia, and comes as trade tensions have been on the rise between Trump and buyers of Russian oil. This week, Trump threatened to increase tariffs on India if it kept purchasing Russian oil. Trump also said China, the largest buyer of Russian crude, could be hit with tariffs similar to those levied against Indian imports. "Various non-oil considerations are at play, including fears over the impact of tariffs and the headlines flying over the last few days regarding a Trump and Putin meeting in the near term," said Neil Crosby, an energy market analyst at Sparta Commodities. "Headline risk is particularly strong currently with flip-flopping regarding who will turn up to a meeting over Ukraine and under what circumstances." Higher U.S. tariffs on imports from a host of trade partners went into effect on Thursday, raising concern over economic activity and demand for crude oil, ANZ Bank analysts said in a note. OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, the latest in a series of accelerated output hikes to regain market share, adding to supply. The U.S. oil rig count, an indicator of future supply, rose by one to 411 this week. "Bearish sentiment has returned this week as key OPEC+ members announced a second 'quadruple' output unwind for September (thus fully restoring their extra voluntary cuts of 2.2 mmb/d) and President Trump's sweeping import tariffs took effect against most countries," analysts at FGE NexantECA said. Trump on Thursday also said he will nominate Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve out the final few months of a newly vacant seat at the Federal Reserve, fuelling expectations of a more dovish policy ahead. Lower interest rates reduce consumer borrowing costs and can boost economic growth and demand for oil. The dollar firmed on Friday but headed for a weekly fall. A stronger dollar hurts demand for dollar-denominated crude from foreign buyers. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-holds-steady-reports-us-russia-deal-2025-08-08/

2025-08-08 19:56

US ruling implies 1 kg gold bars fall under broad import tariffs Ruling is issued by U.S. Customs and Border Protection service Swiss refinery, some non-Swiss industry players stop US deliveries Gold market hopes to see the ruling reversed by the White House LONDON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - The White House plans to clarify what its official called misinformation about import tariffs for gold bars amid uncertainty, which saw some industry players pausing deliveries of bullion to the United States. According to a ruling on the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) service's website on Friday, Washington may place the most widely traded gold bullion bars in the United States under country-specific import tariffs, a move that would roil the metal's global supply chains. Sign up here. The White House intends to issue an executive order in the near future "clarifying misinformation" about tariffs on gold bars and other specialty products, the White House official told Reuters on Friday. U.S. gold futures pared gains after the White House comment. They were last up 0.1% at $3,457 per ounce, reducing a premium over spot gold , the global benchmark, which was steady at $3,398. The CBPruling , opens new tab refers to cast gold bars from Switzerland, the world's biggest bullion refining and transit hub, which is now subject to U.S. import tariffs of 39%. The CBP said that the correct HS customs code to use when supplying 1 kg bullion bars and 100 troy ounce bullion bars, the most traded sizes in the U.S. futures market, to the U.S. would be 7108.13.5500 and not 7108.12.10. However, Washington included only the latter code in the list of products excluded from country-specific import tariffs in April, with 7108.13.5500 not on the list. The Swiss Association of Precious Metals Manufacturers and Traders (ASFCMP) said in a statement that the clarification applied to any country delivering these bars to the U.S. "The United States is a longstanding market for us, so this is a blow for the industry and for Switzerland," Christoph Wild, president of the ASFCMP, told Reuters. "With a tariff of 39%, exports of gold bars will be definitely stopped to the U.S," Wild said. While Switzerland is the refining and transit hub, Britain is home to the world's largest over-the-counter gold trading hub, and South Africa and Canada are among major gold miners. "Likely imposing 39% tariffs on Swiss kilobars is akin to pouring sand into an otherwise well-functioning engine. I say "likely"...the possibility remains that this is an error," said independent analyst Ross Norman. A major gold refinery in Switzerland stopped deliveries to the U.S. after seeing the CBP ruling, a top manager at the refinery told Reuters, while a gold logistics specialist said some other industry players outside Switzerland did the same. The White House's upcoming executive order "should hopefully clear things up," said the logistics source. Protecting the U.S. gold futures during this uncertainty are high stocks of gold in Comex-owned warehouses , after massive inflows over December-March as traders hedged against the possibility of broad U.S. tariffs hitting bullion imports. "The COMEX inventories currently amount to 86% of open interest - against a more normal 40-45% - so there is no liquidity issue at present," said StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-clarify-tariffs-gold-bars-industry-stops-flying-bullion-us-2025-08-08/

2025-08-08 19:37

More Fed officials express concern about labor market Fresh data underscores job market risks cited by Fed dissenters Heavy data docket looms ahead of September 16-17 Fed meeting Aug 8 (Reuters) - Since the Federal Reserve's decision last month to hold interest rates steady, a shift appears underway at the U.S. central bank, with several Fed officials sounding increasingly uneasy about the labor market and signaling their openness to, if not impatience for, a rate cut as soon as September. Their evolving stance may please President Donald Trump, who has pushed aggressively for lower interest rates all year. The reasons for it, including new data indicating a weakening labor market that Trump has claimed is "rigged," may not. Sign up here. Labor market worries were at the heart of arguments put forward by Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman when they dissented from the Fed's July 30 decision to leave short-term borrowing costs in the 4.25%-4.50% range, where they have been since December. The 9-2 majority signed off on a statement that characterized labor market conditions as solid. Days later, they looked far less so. "Concerning" was how Fed Governor Lisa Cook earlier this week described revisions to the government estimates that slashed job gains in May and June to what economists see as recession levels. The same report also showed employers added far fewer jobs than expected in July, and a tick up in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. "The employment number did say that the risk on the employment side is much higher than it had been...I will definitely be looking carefully," said Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. Bostic said he continues to believe just one rate cut will be appropriate for 2025, and at least one other hawkish Fed policymaker felt the new data did not change the overall picture much. But even as central bankers appear short of consensus for the need to ease policy, subtle shifts suggest policymakers are tilting more dovish than before. "There are risks on both sides of our mandate, and when that happens, when you have risks on both sides, you have to take a balanced approach," St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said Friday. That's a shift from his earlier expressions of deeper concern about not meeting the Fed's inflation mandate than on missing its full employment goal. "I'm comfortable with the decision we made in July, but I am increasingly less comfortable with making that decision again and again," San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said earlier this week. There's still plenty of data to digest before the Fed's next policy-setting meeting September 16-17, including a read on consumer prices next week that will help shape policymakers' assessments of whether the Trump administration's new higher tariffs will mean persistently higher inflation, as hawks fear, or just a temporary bump, as doves have argued. Financial markets reflect heavy bets that the policy rate will be at least half of a percentage point lower by year-end. https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-tilt-dovish-us-job-market-softens-2025-08-08/

2025-08-08 19:13

US gold futures hit an all-time high of $3,534.10 Some gold players stop flying bars to US Switzerland says tariff talks with US continue Palladium down over 2% Aug 8 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures pared gains on Friday, retreating from record high levels, after reports that the White House plans to issue an executive order clarifying the country's stance on gold bar tariffs. The statement from White House official on the upcoming executive order follows a ruling posted by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection service's website, indicating that Washington may place the most widely traded gold bullion bars in the United States under country-specific import tariffs. Sign up here. December U.S. gold futures were steady at $3454.1 per ounce as of 1852 GMT, after hitting a record $3,534.10 earlier in the session. "Gold's panic ascent shows that even safe haven assets are not immune to the volatility unleashed in the confusion of the tariff age," Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown. The spread between U.S. gold futures and spot prices widened, and currently sits at $57, down from over $100 earlier in the session. Spot gold steadied at $3,396.8 per ounce as of 2:52 p.m. ET (1852 GMT), but was up 1% for the week. UBS noted that if the tariff sticks, it expects the premium between Comex futures and London ones to rise further, as will arbitrage opportunities between alternative refinery hubs. Analysts broadly noted that they are awaiting further clarity on the issue, adding that a U.S. tariff on gold deliveries could significantly affect Switzerland, given its status as the world's leading hub for gold refining and transit. Swiss goods are subject to U.S. import tariffs of 39%, and the country is continuing discussions with the United States about reducing the levies. Some gold refineries, including a large Swiss entity, have paused deliveries of bullion to the United States due to uncertainty, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Elsewhere, spot silver was steady at $38.29, platinum fell 0.5% to $1,327.85, and palladium was down 2.2% at $1,125.48. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-gold-futures-pare-gains-after-official-says-white-house-clarify-tariff-policy-2025-08-08/

2025-08-08 19:11

Dollar gains, but on track for weekly loss Trump's Fed appointments seen dovish Traders pricing in two US rate cuts this year NEW YORK, Aug 8 (Reuters) - The dollar firmed on Friday but was heading for a weekly fall as weakening economic data leads traders to price in the probability of more interest rate cuts this year, and as investors evaluate U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominations to the Federal Reserve. The dollar has dropped since last week’s jobs report for July showed employers added fewer jobs than expected during the month, while job gains from previous months were also revised down sharply. Sign up here. Other data including a weakening housing market and services sector data are also pointing to a slowing economy. Trump on Thursday, meanwhile, said he will nominate Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve out the final few months of a newly vacant Fed seat, while the White House seeks a permanent addition to the central bank's governing board and continues its search for a new Fed chair. Bloomberg News reported on Thursday that Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who voted for a rate cut in the Fed's last meeting, is emerging as a top candidate to be the central bank's next chair when Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. “It loads the FOMC with people who presumably are a little bit more favorable to lower interest rates,” said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. “The impression is that the Fed is veering towards cutting interest rates probably a little bit quicker than markets had expected, certainly prior to last week. And maybe even speculation that the Fed could cut rates a bit more aggressively than we'd been expecting.” LARGER IMPACT Traders now see a 89% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, and are pricing in 58 basis points in cuts by year-end. Trump also last Friday fired a top Labor Department official on the heels of the weak jobs report, raising concerns that the Trump administration may have a larger influence over economic releases. The dollar index nonetheless gained on Friday, which Osborne said was likely consolidation, with no fresh news to drive direction. It was last up 0.21% on the day at 98.19 but on track for a weekly loss of around 0.5%. The euro fell 0.09% to $1.1655. FX and rates analysts at Bank of America noted that short U.S. dollar remains the highest conviction trade for the rest of this year among fund managers it surveyed. "This could reflect survey respondents' expectation of fading U.S. exceptionalism and simmering concerns on Fed independence and U.S. fiscal policy," the analysts said. They added, however, that "rising concerns around global growth could test the short USD thesis." The next major U.S. economic release will be consumer price data for July due on Tuesday, which will be watched to see whether tariffs are reigniting inflation pressures. The Fed now faces risks to both its inflation and jobs goals, with policymakers needing to balance which seems the more serious threat in deciding whether it is appropriate to reduce interest rates, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Friday. Traders are also watching developments in a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. and Russia are aiming to reach a deal to halt the war in Ukraine that would lock in Moscow's occupation of territory seized during its military invasion, Bloomberg News reported on Friday. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.41% to 147.71. Bank of Japan policymakers debated the likelihood of resuming interest rate increases, with one signalling the chance of a hike this year, a summary of opinions at the July meeting showed, heightening the chance of a near-term rise in borrowing costs. Sterling rose 0.06% to $1.3451 and earlier reached a two-week high of $1.3458. The Bank of England cut interest rates on Thursday, but only after a narrow 5-4 vote, showing a lack of conviction in its easing bias. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.70% to $116,429. Trump signed an executive order on Thursday that aimed to allow more private equity, real estate, cryptocurrency and other alternative assets in 401(k) retirement accounts – opening the way for alternative asset managers to tap a greater share of trillions of dollars in Americans' retirement savings. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dollar-heads-weekly-loss-dovish-fed-expectations-2025-08-08/

2025-08-08 19:01

Aug 8 (Reuters) - Consumer prices in Chile rose more than expected in July, data from statistics agency INE showed on Friday, triggering questions about the likelihood of the central bank delivering fresh interest rate cuts in the very near term. Prices in the world's largest copper producer were up 0.9% last month, INE said in a report. Economists polled by Reuters had expected an increase of 0.6%. Sign up here. The annual inflation rate hit 4.3%, the agency added, up from 4.1% in the previous month and the central bank's target range of 2% to 4%. Policymakers at the bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% last week, but said future moves would depend on the evolution of the macroeconomic scenario and its implications for inflation's convergence to its target. Chile's central bank lowered borrowing costs by a total 625 basis points between July 2023 and December 2024, but had since kept them unchanged as it urged caution given price pressures. The latest inflation figures, Barclays economists said in a note to clients, reflect "consistently stronger" economic activity and should limit the central bank's willingness to lower borrowing costs again this year. Scotiabank economists, meanwhile, said that "monetary policy has no room for cuts" in the face of consecutive surprises in core inflation and an acceleration in non-mining gross domestic product. The monthly consumer price rise in July, according to INE, was driven mainly by higher costs of housing amid higher electricity prices. Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages also rose. The only group of the 13 surveyed that posted a price decrease was insurance and financial services, the agency noted. The higher-than-expected figure followed a drop of 0.4% drop in June, which at the time undershot market forecasts. Despite the surprise on the upside, some market watchers still believe a fresh interest rate cut is in play at the central bank's next meeting on September 9. "This single report is not enough to change our forecast for a new 25-basis-point policy rate cut in September," JPMorgan said. "Although it does make such a move contingent on the August consumer price index report." https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/chile-inflation-overshoots-forecasts-raising-doubts-about-rate-cut-path-2025-08-08/