2025-12-03 15:34
PRAGUE, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Central Europe's main currencies may be close to a ceiling after hitting fresh multi-month highs in the past month, a Reuters poll of economic analysts showed on Wednesday. In the poll, the Hungarian forint - the region's top performer in 2025 with an 8% gain since January - was expected to fall 2.3% from Tuesday's closing levels to 390.00 to the euro in the next 12 months. Sign up here. The forint reached a fresh 22-month peak on Wednesday at 380.35 to the euro, although analysts see the currency falling around 1% already by the end of 2025, back to the 385 area, according to the poll's median 1-month forecast. Some analysts see potential progress in talks to end the war in Ukraine, following Russia's 2022 invasion, opening room for gains in the forint and other central European currencies. But others see limited scope for the Hungarian currency itself as the economy stagnates and it faces fiscal challenges before a parliamentary election in the first half of 2026. "We stick to our view that the Hungarian currency is overvalued given the weak economic performance," analysts at bank Santander's Polish unit said in the poll. INTEREST RATES ON HOLD The forint and the Czech crown have been central Europe's biggest gainers this year, with the latter rising more than 4%, as their respective central banks enforce a hawkish pause on interest rates, putting easing policies started in 2023 on hold. In the poll, the crown was seen as the region's likely best-performing currency over the next 12 months, holding onto its gains to finish the period at 24.1 per the euro, around the 26-month high of 24.106 reached on Wednesday. Besides strict monetary policy, the currencies have found support from U.S. dollar weakness and - in the Czech case - accelerating economic growth. A better economy has also supported the Polish zloty during a series of interest rate cuts this year. ZLOTY, LEU LAG Overall, the zloty is up 1.1% year-to-date. The zloty touched a seven-month high of 4.218 per euro last month. Analysts in the poll forecast a slight retreat back to 4.25 per euro in 12 months, which has been the centre of the currency's range trading this year. Romania's leu , which the central bank keeps in a managed float, was forecast to fall 1.1% in the next 12 months, reaching 5.1442 to the euro, close to an all-time low of 5.152 hit in May when investors worried a presidential election might derail efforts to cut the EU's biggest budget deficit. Jakub Kratky from Generali Investments CEE said Romania's central bank had sought to keep the leu strong amid inflation pressures from the government's ongoing fiscal consolidation. "After the inflation shock abates, the central bank may be willing to let the leu depreciate a bit," he said. (Other stories from the Reuters December foreign exchange polls) https://www.reuters.com/business/central-europes-currencies-back-off-highs-2026-2025-12-03/
2025-12-03 15:32
Median inflation forecast is 6.5% for 2025 GDP growth seen at 0.8% in 2025 Rouble seen at 95.75 vs dollar in 12 months MOSCOW, Dec 3 (Reuters) - The Russian central bank is seen cutting its key interest rate by 50 basis points at a meeting on December 19 as inflation is slowing faster than expected, a Reuters poll of 15 analysts showed on Wednesday. Analysts also cut their full-year inflation estimates to 6.5% from 6.9% in the previous monthly poll, and their GDP growth estimates to 0.8% from 1% in the previous poll. The central bank forecasts inflation at between 6.5% and 7%. Sign up here. The Russian economy is slowing down sharply from robust growth of 4.3% in 2024 as a result of the central bank's tight monetary policy to fight inflation and Western sanctions. The central bank started cutting its key rate in June. "The central bank's baseline inflation forecast has been met a month ahead of schedule. Moreover, the likelihood of further reduction in the inflation rate in December is very high," PSB Bank analysts said. Putin said on December 2 that inflation was now expected to fall to around 6% by the end of December, calling it "an important achievement of this year." However, inflation is expected to spike at the start of the year due to a value-added tax hike. "The regulator is likely to remain cautious," Raiffeisenbank analysts wrote. INFLATION EASING ON TIGHT MONETARY POLICY Annual consumer inflation dropped to 6.92% as of November 27, the economy ministry said last week. Inflation has been gradually decreasing, after hitting 10.3% in March, as a result of the central bank's tight monetary policy. A Reuters poll indicated that by the end of 2026, the central bank will cut the key interest rate to 13%, the level seen by many analysts as necessary for economic growth to resume. "Next year, we expect the rate to be around 13%, and this will allow the central bank, like a pilot in an airplane, to add a bit of thrust and help us avoid a recession," said VTB investment strategist Alexei Kornilov. However, the analysts did not expect economic growth to accelerate significantly, with Russia's GDP projected to grow by only 1.2% in 2026 compared to 0.8% this year. Putin said that he was concerned about a fall in output in some sectors. The rouble, which has been hovering around its two-year high in recent months due to high interest rates, shrinking imports and central bank foreign currency interventions, is expected to weaken to 95.75 to the U.S. dollar in 12 months. https://www.reuters.com/business/russian-central-bank-seen-cutting-key-rate-by-50-bps-16-december-meeting-2025-12-03/
2025-12-03 15:09
Dec 3 (Reuters) - Shares of American Bitcoin (ABTC.O) , opens new tab, a bitcoin miner backed by two of U.S. President Donald Trump's sons, steadied on Wednesday, a day after slumping nearly 40% following the expiry of a share lock-up. The stock rose 11.2% to $2.44 after the first unlock of pre-merger shares unleashed a wave of selling on Tuesday, the company said , opens new tab on X.com. Sign up here. American Bitcoin, a majority-owned subsidiary of Hut 8 Corp (HUT.O) , opens new tab, is one of the several crypto ventures linked to the Trump family that began trading on the Nasdaq in September following a reverse merger with Gryphon Digital Mining . Eric Trump serves as the company's co-founder and chief strategy officer, while Donald Trump Jr. is a shareholder. "We expected next few days to be choppy as those shares find new homes," American Bitcoin President Matt Prusak wrote on X.com. Hut 8 CEO and American Bitcoin's Executive Chairman Asher Genoot said , opens new tab in a separate post on X.com that Hut 8, along with Eric and Donald Trump Jr. and other founding partners, did not participate in the unlock and continue to hold their shares. American Bitcoin did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for a comment. The selloff comes as global risk aversion heavily pressures digital assets, impacting crypto ventures associated with the Trump family. The memecoins $TRUMP and $MELANIA, launched earlier this year, have plunged 92% and 99%, respectively, from their peaks. Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) , opens new tab, which has raised billions of dollars to buy bitcoin, is down 67% year to date. Shares in Alt5 Sigma (ALTS.O) , opens new tab, which has bought tokens in Trump's World Liberty Financial crypto venture, has lost two-thirds of its value in 2025. https://www.reuters.com/business/american-bitcoin-steadies-after-share-lock-up-expiry-sparks-near-40-plunge-2025-12-03/
2025-12-03 14:54
SAO PAULO, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Brazilian chicken exports are expected to rise up to 0.5% this year to 5.32 million metric tons, meat lobby ABPA said on Wednesday, after exporters avoided trade bans triggered by a bird flu outbreak in May, including from key buyers China, Japan and the European Union. Before the outbreak in Rio Grande do Sul state, which Brazil controlled in the space of roughly a month, ABPA had projected chicken exports growing by up to 1.9% to 5.4 million tons. In August, as some bans remained in place, ABPA had said Brazilian chicken exports could fall by as much as 2% to 5.2 million tons this year. Sign up here. The return of bird flu outbreaks in the United States, which tend to reduce local production and chicken exports from Brazil's main competitor in global markets, may also give domestic chicken exports a push, according to ABPA. "Brazil has 38% of the global chicken trade and the U.S. has 27%," said Ricardo Santin, head of ABPA, addressing a press conference. "Any reduction [in U.S. exports] has a big impact." In its latest projections, ABPA also said Brazilian chicken meat production was expected to rise by up to 2.2% to 15.3 million tons in 2025 and to increase by up to 2% to 15.6 million tons in 2026. ABPA noted the outlook is also positive for Brazilian pork production and exports, adding the country may become the world's third-largest pork supplier in 2025. Santin cited outbreaks of African swine fever in European countries and the Philippines, which create opportunities for Brazilian suppliers. Brazil's pork exports may rise as much as 10% this year to 1.49 million tons, according to ABPA's new projections. Pork production this year is projected to rise by as much as 4.6% to 5.55 million tons, ABPA said. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/brazil-2025-chicken-exports-rise-despite-bird-flu-trade-bans-2025-12-03/
2025-12-03 12:37
Dec 3 (Reuters) - Enbridge (ENB.TO) , opens new tab on Wednesday forecast higher core profit for 2026, as the Canadian pipeline operator expects to benefit from strong demand and new projects entering service. The company projected an adjusted core profit of C$20.2 billion ($14.49 billion) to C$20.8 billion, compared with expectations of between C$19.4 billion and C$20 billion for this year. Sign up here. Surging demand for AI-fueled data centers and accelerating electrification are expected to push U.S. power demand to record levels in 2025 and 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. "We also expect strong growth in 2026 from recent rate settlements and rate cases in both Gas Distribution and Gas Transmission," CEO Gregory Ebel said in a statement. The Calgary-based company had bought three Dominion Energy (D.N) , opens new tab utilities last year — East Ohio Gas, Questar Gas and Public Service Co of North Carolina — in a $14 billion deal, including debt. Enbridge also raised its quarterly dividend by 3% to 97 Canadian cents a share, effective March 1. ($1 = 1.3942 Canadian dollars) https://www.reuters.com/business/enbridge-forecasts-higher-2026-core-profit-2025-12-03/
2025-12-03 12:25
FRANKFURT, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation has delivered some "upside surprises" recently, raising some questions about the European Central Bank's expectations for a dip early next year, the ECB's chief economist Philip Lane said on Wednesday. Inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro has been hovering around the ECB's 2% target for most of this year, but some measures of price growth came in higher than expected in the last couple of months. Sign up here. Lane said there was still a risk that inflation - which rose sharply in 2021-22 before falling back to the ECB's 2% goal - might surpass the central bank's expectations. "The inflation risk is not one way, we've seen some upside surprises recently," Lane told an event. The ECB's September projections put inflation at 2.1% this year, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. Lane is due to present new forecasts, which will cover 2028 for the first time, at the ECB's next meeting on December 18, when the central bank is expected to keep its policy rate at 2%. "We did have a clear projection, because of low energy, of inflation falling below target, especially in the opening months of next year," Lane said. "But in fact some of the data since then have moved in the opposite direction, so those are some of the mitigants." Headline inflation edged up to 2.2% last month, slightly above expectations, as prices in the services sector accelerated. In October, underlying inflation, which strips out more volatile prices such as food and energy, had also come in slightly higher than expected. Delivering a speech earlier, Lane repeated his mantra that the ECB should not "respond to near-term deviations that are solidly expected to be transitory". https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ecbs-lane-flags-upside-surprises-euro-zone-inflation-2025-12-03/
