2025-08-06 23:13

BoE expected to cut Bank Rate to 4.0% from 4.25% Reduction would be fifth since August last year Some policymakers are worried about jobs slowdown Others are more concerned about inflation pressure BoE decision due at 1100 GMT, press conference 1130 GMT LONDON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - The Bank of England looks poised to cut interest rates for the fifth time in 12 months on Thursday but nagging worries about inflation are likely to split its policymakers and cloud the outlook for its next moves. Governor Andrew Bailey and most of the Monetary Policy Committee are expected to favour taking Bank Rate to 4% from 4.25% as they react to a jobs slowdown made worse by a tax hike on employers and U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war. Sign up here. But two MPC members might push for a bigger cut to prop up the economy while another two might prefer no cut at all due to their inflation concerns, a voting pattern last seen in May and reflecting the conflicting pressures on Britain's central bank. Investors will be watching to see if the BoE sticks to its "gradual and careful" language about the pace of lowering borrowing costs, a message that economists have taken to mean one rate cut every three months. That slow and steady path no longer looks so clear, with inflation running above the BoE's projections and forecast by some economists to reach 4% in coming months, double the central bank's target. Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics have predicted Thursday's rate cut will be the BoE's last for a while due to the persistence of inflation. That would be a blow for finance minister Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who have promised to speed up Britain's slow economic growth. By contrast, analysts at investment bank Evercore think the BoE might accelerate the pace of cuts later this year as hiring weakens further. Investors are mostly pricing in another cut in November after Thursday's expected move but only one or two more reductions in 2026, which would leave Bank Rate at 3.5% or 3.25%, higher than the euro zone's benchmark rate of 2%. HIGH INFLATION EXPECTATIONS High inflation expectations in surveys of the British public mean Bailey and the rest of the MPC cannot focus squarely on giving the economy a boost by cutting borrowing costs. Inflation has been above the Bank of England's 2% target almost constantly since May 2021. "If I'm a worker and I'm bargaining for a wage, am I really going to believe that inflation is going to come back to 2%?" Stephen Millard, deputy director at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research think tank, said. "I would, personally. But I could imagine there's still quite a bit of wage pressure just coming from that." In contrast to the BoE, which has forecast that inflation will only return to 2% in early 2027, the European Central Bank expects inflation in the euro zone to hold below 2%. It has cut borrowing costs eight times since June of last year. Growth in wages in Britain has proven slower to ease after surging during the COVID-19 pandemic. At about 5% in the most recent data it remains above the 3% level that the BoE thinks is roughly consistent with its inflation target. The BoE will announce the MPC's latest decision and forecasts for the economy at 1100 GMT, half an hour before Bailey and other top officials hold a press conference. The central bank is also expected to assess the impact of its programme of running down its stockpile of government debt ahead of a decision in September on the pace of sales over the following 12 months, a key decision for bond investors. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-england-facing-jobs-inflation-dilemma-poised-cut-rates-2025-08-06/

2025-08-06 22:40

WASHINGTON, Aug 6 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he could announce further tariffs on China similar to the 25% duties announced earlier on India over its purchases of Russian oil, depending on what happens. "Could happen," Trump told reporters, after saying he expected to announce more secondary sanctions aimed at pressuring Russia to end its war in Ukraine. Sign up here. He gave no further details. "It may happen ... I can't tell you yet," Trump said. "We did it with India. We're doing it probably with a couple of others. One of them could be China." Trump on Wednesday imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, on top of a 25% tariff announced previously, citing its continued purchases of Russian oil. The White House order did not mention China, which is another big purchaser of Russian oil. Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned China that it could also face new tariffs if it continued buying Russian oil. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-says-he-could-impose-more-tariffs-china-similar-india-duties-over-russian-2025-08-06/

2025-08-06 22:33

HOUSTON, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Recent U.S. restrictions on ethane exports to China will likely make it more difficult to contract with Chinese companies, even though they have already been lifted, U.S. exporter Energy Transfer (ET.N) , opens new tab said on Wednesday. The U.S. placed restrictions on shipping ethane - and a wide swathe of other exports - to China in late May and early June after accusing Beijing of slowing shipments of rare earths vital to automakers and other industries. Sign up here. The restrictions were rescinded last month, but they disrupted flows of ethane and caused significant delays to shipments. "That, you know, put a little bit of a black eye on us, on our industry, on our country...," Marshall McCrea, co-CEO of Energy Transfer, said in a post-earnings conference call. The company is one of the top U.S. exporters of ethane, a natural gas liquid. "We think it's going to be probably a little bit more difficult to contract with Chinese crackers, good or bad, we think that they're probably going to be a little bit more hesitant," McCrea added. About half of U.S. ethane, which is extracted from shale gas, heads to China where it is run through crackers to produce ethylene, a building block for plastics. Chinese petrochemical firms use ethane as a feedstock because it is cheaper than naphtha, while U.S. oil and gas producers need China to buy their natural gas liquids as domestic supply exceeds demand. Rival Enterprise Products Partners (EPD.N) , opens new tab also warned last week that the export curbs compromised the U.S. brand for reliable supply and energy security. "These kind of actions rarely hurt the intended target and often backfire hurting our own industry more," said Jim Teague, CEO of Enterprise Products. Enterprise said at least one non-Chinese company that it was in discussions with about contracting ethane decided to contract naphtha instead. Energy Transfer reported a 11.5% decline in net income to $1.16 billion, or 32 cents per unit, in the three months ended June 30. Revenue of $19.24 billion came in well below estimates of about $22 billion, according to LSEG data. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-ethane-curbs-will-make-contracting-china-harder-energy-transfer-says-2025-08-06/

2025-08-06 21:54

Aug 6 (Reuters) - Nutrien (NTR.TO) , opens new tab topped Wall Street estimates for second-quarter profit on Wednesday, as the world's top potash producer benefited from improved demand in North America amid a robust corn planting season. U.S. farmers expanded corn plantings by 5% this year to the highest since 2013 while cutting soybean acres by 4% to a five-year low, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in June. Sign up here. The agency expects U.S. farmers will seed 95.203 million acres (38.527 million hectares) of corn this year, up from 90.594 million last year. "Fertilizer market fundamentals are supported by strong global demand, persistent supply disruptions and project delays. We have seen healthy fertilizer customer engagement and field activity in North America," CEO Ken Seitz said in a statement. Saskatoon, Canada-based Nutrien said it expects current-year potash sales volumes to be in the range of 13.9 million tonnes to 14.5 million tonnes. It previously projected potash sales volumes of 13.6 million tonnes to 14.4 million tonnes. U.S.-listed shares of the company were up more than 2% in trading after the bell. Nutrien's second-quarter potash sales jumped 31% to $991 million in the three months ended June 30. Total sales rose to $10.44 billion, from $10.16 billion a year earlier, with the retail segment, the company's largest by revenue, reporting sales of $7.96 billion during the quarter. The company posted an adjusted profit of $2.65 per share, compared with analysts' average estimate of $2.40, according to data compiled by LSEG. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/nutrien-beats-quarterly-profit-estimates-strong-potash-demand-2025-08-06/

2025-08-06 21:54

Beijing says probe on beef imports will run until November 26 Chinese beef industry battles to reduce supply glut China has not renewed many registrations for US shipments BEIJING/CHICAGO, Aug 6 (Reuters) - China has extended for three months an investigation period for beef imports, the commerce ministry said on Wednesday, giving global suppliers a breather from the prospect of trade curbs as the domestic industry battles to reduce a supply glut. The inquiry, launched last December, came as slowing demand squeezes the world's largest market for imports and consumption, but does not target a particular country. Sign up here. Trade measures to reduce imports could hit major suppliers such as Argentina, Australia and Brazil, after China has already restricted imports from the United States. The investigation will now run until November 26, the ministry said, citing "the large volume of investigative work and the complexity of the case". It also pledged to ensure a "healthy and stable" global trade environment by communicating with all parties. "It's definitely a relief to beef exporters," said Even Rogers Pay, agriculture analyst at Trivium China. "The extension buys Beijing a few months to see whether the domestic industry can regain profitability without safeguards, and hopefully to make progress on other issues with major beef exporters." Although trade measures such as quota curbs were still not completely off the table, it was more likely something could be worked out quietly rather than being imposed, she added. Authorities have ramped up support for the industry, including financial measures. In July, an agriculture ministry official said beef cattle farming had been "generally profitable" for three consecutive months. China imported a record 2.87 million metric tons of beef in 2024, but imports of 1.3 million metric tons for the first half of 2025 were down 9.5% on the year. China has restricted imports of American meat by not renewing registrations that permitted shipments from hundreds of U.S. beef facilities after they expired in March, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation, an industry group. "The vast majority of our plants aren't eligible to ship to China presently," federation spokesperson Joe Schuele said. "While the safeguard investigation is important, it's not at the top of our minds. The most urgent situation is to get our plants registered for China." Without exports to China, the federation estimated the U.S. beef industry's lost opportunities at about $4 billion annually. "Consistent and transparent plant approvals, without expiration, were among the most important components of the 2020 Phase One Agreement with China," federation President Dan Halstrom said, referring to the trade pact signed during U.S. President Donald Trump's first term. "It's time for China to return to those commitments." https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-extends-probe-imported-beef-respite-global-suppliers-2025-08-06/

2025-08-06 21:46

SAO PAULO, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Brazil exported 41.1 million metric tons of iron ore in July, breaking the country's previous record of 39.5 million tons set in December 2015, official data showed on Wednesday. WHY IT'S IMPORTANT Brazil is the world's second-largest exporter of iron ore after Australia. The steel-making material is also one of Brazil's main exports alongside oils and soybeans. Sign up here. The data comes as Brazil posted a $7.1 billion trade surplus for July, down 6.3% from a year earlier. BY THE NUMBERS Brazilian iron ore shipments, usually led by local miner Vale (VALE3.SA) , opens new tab, rose 4.7% in July from the same month last year, government data showed, even as revenues from these exports fell 8.8% to $2.62 billion as prices dipped about 13%. KEY QUOTE "June and July saw confidence rebound in the sector due to the progress of large projects in China and a resumption of production," Brazilian mining lobby group Ibram said in a statement. "This is one of the factors that may have influenced this demand," Ibram added, noting it also helped global prices to edge up from late June. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/brazils-july-iron-ore-exports-hit-record-volumes-2025-08-06/