2025-08-05 13:38

Reuters poll graphic on euro-dollar forecasts - BENGALURU, Aug 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar will weaken steadily over the coming months on mounting concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence, the credibility of official statistics, ballooning fiscal debt and rising bets on interest rate cuts, a Reuters survey of foreign exchange analysts showed on Tuesday. Underscoring those concerns, President Donald Trump's dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner last week over unproven claims of data rigging - following record downward revisions to job numbers - prompted a swift reversal of recent dollar (.DXY) , opens new tab gains from Trump's tariff deal with the EU. Sign up here. While there was a modest pullback from a crowded short-dollar trade, the greenback is still down nearly 9% this year against a basket of major currencies. Trump's erratic tariff moves, repeated attacks on the U.S. central bank and Fed Chair Jerome Powell and rising debt levels have made investors rethink holding U.S. assets and raised the term premium - compensation demanded for holding long-term debt. Reflecting that sentiment, foreign exchange strategists, who have maintained a bearish dollar outlook since at least April, forecast in an August 1-5 Reuters poll that the euro would gain around 2% to $1.17 by the end of October and continue to rise to $1.18 in six months. The euro would then rise to $1.20 in a year - the highest survey median since October 2021. "We've been trading in this environment of U.S. exceptionalism and the U.S. being far and away the strongest economy in the world. That just isn't the case anymore in my view," said Erik Nelson, head of G10 FX strategy at Wells Fargo. "There are underlying structural concerns - Fed independence, data quality, you name it. When it comes to the economic backdrop, all that is heading in the wrong direction. The temptation for the foreseeable future will be to sell the dollar on rallies." An overwhelming majority, 89 of 100 top policy experts in a separate Reuters survey, raised concerns over the accuracy of U.S. government statistics days before Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. FED INDEPENDENCE Investor nerves have been further frayed by Trump's repeated attacks on Powell, who has so far resisted the president's demands for steep rate cuts - and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler's early resignation, potentially shaking up an already-fractious succession process for the Fed's leadership. Powell's term as Fed chief expires next May. "For Trump to place one of his nominees as governor, who could then be elected Chair next year - I believe markets would take it quite poorly. Naturally, there will be a lot of scrutiny on how many members switch to the dovish side or whether they remain more cautious and fail to align with a new dovish Chair," said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING. "Should markets interpret Fed independence as having been materially compromised, that would be quite a compelling argument for a weaker dollar." Interest rate futures are currently betting on roughly three Fed rate cuts by the end of this year, with the first move happening in September - a sharp increase from just the one or two reductions in borrowing costs anticipated weeks earlier. The European Central Bank is priced for just one cut or no cuts. While a still-resilient U.S. economy and the risk of tariff-driven inflation have pared some of the dollar's gains - net-short dollar positions had reached a two-year high in late June - the greenback's slide may only slow but not reverse. Over 60% of strategists, 26 of 42, expected dollar net-shorts in Commodity Futures Trading Commission positioning to either rise or hold steady by the end of October, the survey showed. But a growing minority, over a third of respondents versus 17% in July, now predict a decrease in net-short bets. "Short-dollar has been one of the most consensus trades this year, and most investors still expect long-term depreciation to continue. But near-term views have become less bearish, and therefore positioning is more likely to move towards fewer net shorts over the next few months," said Jason Draho, head of asset allocation in the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management. (Other stories from the August foreign exchange poll) https://www.reuters.com/business/trumps-attacks-fed-data-integrity-weigh-us-dollar-forecasts-reuters-poll-2025-08-05/

2025-08-05 13:36

Aug 5 (Reuters) - Wall Street futures opened higher on Tuesday, supported by ongoing optimism over potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, while investors assessed a fresh batch of corporate earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 26.4 points, or 0.06%, at the open to 44200.07. The S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 6.7 points, or 0.11%, to 6336.63, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab rose 38.5 points, or 0.18%, to 21092.097. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/snapshot-wall-street-opens-higher-rate-cut-hopes-earnings-spotlight-2025-08-05/

2025-08-05 13:23

Aug 5 (Reuters) - Global freight forwarder Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD.N) , opens new tab reported second-quarter profit and revenue above Wall Street estimates on Tuesday, helped by higher airfreight and ocean container volumes and bigger custom fees. Airfreight tonnage and ocean container volume increased 7% each year-over-year for the quarter ended June 30, as companies rushed to import before new U.S. tariffs kick in. Sign up here. The company also benefited as increasingly complex trade policies allowed it to charge shippers higher processing fees. U.S. importers have increasingly turned to customs brokers to keep up with President Donald Trump's ever-changing trade policies. But the booming demand has made these services more expensive, industry players previously told Reuters. Revenue from Expeditors' customs brokerage segment rose 10.5% to $1.02 billion, up from $927 million a year earlier. "Airfreight business increased on growth in tonnage and higher rates in most regions, and particularly as customers sought to ship technology and other high-value inventory ahead of trade deadlines," CEO Daniel Wall said. "Ocean business also grew largely on increased volumes, particularly exports out of South Asia, as customers relocated sourcing to that region and moved freight in advance of extended tariff deadlines," he added. The Bellevue, Washington-based company reported quarterly revenue of $2.65 billion, beating analysts' estimate of $2.44 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. Its second-quarter profit of $1.34 per share was also above estimates of $1.24 per share. Still, the company expects freight market conditions to remain volatile through the rest of the year. https://www.reuters.com/business/expeditors-posts-upbeat-results-higher-freight-volumes-customs-fees-2025-08-05/

2025-08-05 13:19

HARARE, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's platinum miners are owed millions of dollars in unpaid exports income under the government's foreign currency retention rules, the mining chamber has said, hurting operations in a sector battling to recover from a price collapse. The southern African country requires all exporters to retain only 70% of their proceeds in foreign currency, with the balance being converted to local currency. Sign up here. The world's third largest producer of platinum group metals after neighbour South Africa and Russia, says it needs the foreign currency to fund vital imports and repay foreign loans. Platinum producers in Zimbabwe, who include Valterra Platinum, Impala Platinum's (IMPJ.J) , opens new tab Zimplats (ZIM.AX) , opens new tab and Mimosa, a joint venture between Impala and Sibanye Stillwater (SSWJ.J) , opens new tab, exported PGM mattes and concentrates worth $690 million in the first half of this year, government data shows. However, the government has not been paying the miners the local currency equivalent of their export earnings since January, an official at the mining chamber told Reuters. Deputy finance minister Kuda Mnangagwa confirmed that the government had fallen behind on paying the miners. "There were issues of cash flow constraints, particularly in the first quarter of the year when our revenue collections are at their lowest," Mnangagwa told Reuters on Tuesday. He added that the government was talking to platinum miners to ensure "that these delays don't burden their operations". Platinum group metals, used to make catalytic converters that curb vehicle emissions, are Zimbabwe's second most valuable mineral export, behind gold. Zimbabwe exported gold worth $1.8 billion during the first half of 2025, up from $870 million during the same period last year, thanks to record high bullion prices. Gold producers have also complained about Zimbabwe's foreign currency retention rule, which they say eats into their income when part of their export proceeds are converted into an overvalued local currency. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/zimbabwe-platinum-miners-owed-millions-unpaid-export-earnings-2025-08-05/

2025-08-05 13:00

Trade turmoil and biofuel policy uncertainty impact ADM profits ADM braces for impact from U.S. tariffs and trade retaliation Ag Services & Oilseeds profit drops 7%, grain business down 75% ADM's 2025 earnings forecast lowered to $4.00 per share Aug 5 (Reuters) - Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM.N) , opens new tab posted its lowest second-quarter profit in five years on Tuesday as U.S. trade upheaval and uncertainty around biofuel policies slowed sales and crimped trading and crop processing margins. The company warned that full-year 2025 earnings would drop to the lowest since 2020 after a weak first half and amid ongoing challenges in global trade. Sign up here. U.S.-based ADM is bracing for an impact from President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on most imports, as well as any trade retaliation which often targets agricultural products. ADM and agribusiness peers including Bunge(BG.N) , opens new tab and Cargill have seen profits erode in recent quarters due to ample global crop supplies and thinning margins. The U.S. president's tariff threats and shifting deadlines for duties have fueled further chaos for global grains merchants like ADM. U.S. biofuel policy uncertainty dented demand for green energy feedstocks like corn and soybean oil, although ADM said proposed increases for biofuel blending in the U.S. should be supportive from the fourth quarter and beyond. ADM said it expected adjusted annual earnings at about $4.00 share in 2025, compared with previous guidance of between $4.00 and $4.75 per share and the weakest in five years. Profit from Ag Services & Oilseeds, the company's largest segment, slumped 7% to $113 million in the reported quarter driven by lower margins. The division houses the company's global crop trading, transportation and storage, and oilseed processing operations. Profit in its grain origination and crushing business, which sources grains from growers and processes them for food, animal feed and other uses, fell 75% to $33 million. Chicago-based ADM reported adjusted net earnings of $452 million, or 93 cents per share, for the quarter ended June 30, down from $508 million, or $1.03 per share, a year ago. Analysts, on average, expected earnings per share of 83 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG. https://www.reuters.com/business/adm-q2-profit-falls-5-year-low-amid-trade-turmoil-2025-08-05/

2025-08-05 12:59

Ruling party, opposition unite to condemn Trump threat Foreign ministry accuses US, EU of double standard over Russian trade Market, Indian rupee fall as trade rift deepens NEW DELHI, Aug 5 (Reuters) - India's ruling party and main opposition condemned on Tuesday a threat by U.S. President Donald Trump to raise tariffs on goods from India over its Russian oil purchases, in a show of political unity as a trade rift deepens with Washington. Trump had already in July announced 25% tariffs on Indian imports, and U.S. officials have cited a range of geopolitical issues standing in the way of a U.S.-India trade accord. Sign up here. Manish Tewari, a member of parliament and leader of the opposition Congress, said Trump's "disparaging remarks hurt the dignity and self-respect of Indians". "The time has come to call out this constant bullying and hectoring," he added. BJP Vice President Baijayant Jay Panda quoted Henry Kissinger - the most powerful U.S. diplomat of the Cold War era - in a post on X: "To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal." India's Foreign Ministry said the country was being unfairly singled out over its purchases of Russian oil, and highlighted continued trade between Moscow and both the United States and the European Union, despite the war in Ukraine. "It is revealing that the very nations criticising India are themselves indulging in trade with Russia," it said in a statement issued late on Monday. "It is unjustified to single out India," the ministry said. It said the EU conducted 67.5 billion euros ($78.02 billion) in trade with Russia in 2024, including record imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) reaching 16.5 million metric tons. The United States, the statement said, continues to import Russian uranium hexafluoride for use in its nuclear power industry, palladium, fertilisers and chemicals. It did not give a source for the export information. The U.S. embassy and the EU's delegation in New Delhi did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Both the United States and EU have sharply scaled back their trade ties with Russia since it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In 2021, Russia was the EU's fifth-largest trading partner, with goods exchange worth 258 billion euros, according to the EU executive European Commission. SUDDEN RIFT India is the biggest buyer of seaborne crude from Russia, importing about 1.75 million barrels per day of Russian oil from January to June this year, up 1% from a year ago, according to data provided to Reuters by trade sources. It has faced pressure from the West to distance itself from Moscow since Russia invaded Ukraine. New Delhi has resisted, citing its longstanding ties with Russia and economic needs. India's National Security Adviser Ajit Doval is likely to travel to Russia this week on a scheduled visit, two government sources said. Foreign Minister S Jaishankar is expected to visit in the coming weeks. The sudden rift between India and the U.S. has been deepening since July 31, when Trump announced the 25% tariff on goods being shipped to the U.S. and for the first time threatened unspecified penalties for buying Russian oil. Trump has said that from Friday he will impose new sanctions on Russia as well as on countries that buy its energy exports, unless Moscow takes steps to end the war with Ukraine. The trade tensions have caused concern about the potential impact on India's economy. The equity benchmark BSE Sensex .BSESN closed down 0.38%, while the rupee dropped 0.17% versus the dollar. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-hits-back-trumps-threat-over-russian-oil-purchases-2025-08-05/