2025-12-11 11:52

Fed policymakers see one rate cut in 2026 Swiss central bank leaves rates unchanged on Thursday Market bets for ECB rate hike in a year's time creep up LONDON, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Central banks in big economies are signaling a change of stance, with many now on hold after a long easing cycle, and policymakers flagging that their next moves, in time, could be rate hikes. The U.S. Federal Reserve is something of an outlier. It cut rates this week, and markets still see more easing next year, but the Fed expects one further rate cut, so it too could be nearing the end. Sign up here. Here's where central banks in 10 developed markets stand. 1/ SWITZERLAND The Swiss National Bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 0% on Thursday, the lowest among developed-market central banks, and said the recent agreement to reduce U.S. tariffs on Swiss goods had improved the economic outlook. Even though Swiss inflation is at zero as the strong safe-haven franc cheapens import costs, the bar for bringing rates negative is high, and economists expect price growth to recover mildly next year and the SNB to stay on hold throughout 2026. 2/ CANADA The Bank of Canada held its key rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, after 225 basis points (bps) of easing this cycle. Governor Tiff Macklem said the economy was proving resilient to U.S. trade measures. The BOC is expected to keep rates on hold until 2027, after government spending and robust oil exports lifted third-quarter growth to 2.6% and the labour market 3/ SWEDEN Sweden's Riksbank also expects previous monetary easing to begin lifting growth and with year-on-year inflation running just above its 2% target, analysts anticipate it will hold rates at 1.75% on Dec. 18, with a lengthy pause to follow. 4/ NEW ZEALAND With unemployment stuck at a nine-year high, turning hawkish will be a tough choice for new Reserve Bank of New Zealand boss Anna Breman. With a string of punchy rate cuts having helped propel inflation to the top end of the central bank's target range, however, money markets see New Zealand's cash rate nearing 3% by December 2026 from 2.25% currently. 5/ EURO ZONE The European Central Bank has been firmly on hold at 2% since June and is likely to remain so next week. A shift appears to be underway however. For the last few months, a further rate cut was seen as a possibility, but not anymore as traders reacted to ECB board member Isabel Schnabel saying Monday the ECB's next move may be a hike, even if not immediately. 6/ UNITED STATES The Federal Reserve cut rates on Wednesday, in a divided vote, but hinted it will now pause as officials look for clearer signals about the job market and inflation that "remains somewhat elevated." Projections issued after the meeting showed policymakers see just one 25 bps cut in 2026. That could presage disagreements with President Donald Trump, who wants more easing, but projections of faster growth, lower inflation and steady employment might mollify him. 7/ BRITAIN Money markets put almost a nine-in-ten chance on the Bank of England cutting rates to 3.75% on Dec. 18, but price little more than 30 bps of further easing during 2026. The BoE last month voted 5-4 to leave rates unchanged at 4% and remains deeply divided after the government's tax-hiking Nov. 26 budget soured economic sentiment but elevated food price inflation suggested price pressures remained strong. 8/ NORWAY The Norges Bank has been the most cautious in the G10 pack, having cut rates by just 50 bps this cycle. Markets think it will hold next week, but are pricing one further cut in mid-2026. Wednesday's data showing cooling in core inflation will help. 9/ AUSTRALIA The Reserve Bank of Australia looks like it'll be first to the turning point. On Tuesday, it held rates steady at 3.6%, ruled out further policy easing, and, most notably, warned its next move could be up if inflation pressures prove to be stubborn. That gave the Australian dollar a boost, and weighed on government bonds. Markets are fully pricing a hike by June 2026, and see a good chance it'll come in May. 10/ JAPAN The Bank of Japan, the sole central bank in hiking mode for now, is set to raise rates to 0.75% at its meeting next week. Japanese markets are in focus globally. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's announcement of massive stimulus has sent longer-dated government bond yields surging, with spillovers elsewhere, while the yen is under pressure. Governor Kazuo Ueda would be relieved if his post-meeting remarks avoid accelerating the selloff in one or the other. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-cenbank-2025-12-11/

2025-12-11 11:45

Torrential rain forces families to flee flooded tents at night Gaza officials say they lack equipment to manage the floods 1.5 million Gazans are displaced, tents and shelter needed Distraught mother says her baby died of cold suddenly CAIRO/GAZA, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Torrential rain swept across the Gaza Strip on Thursday, flooding hundreds of tents sheltering families displaced by two years of war, and leading to the death of a baby girl due to exposure, local health officials said. Medics said eight-month-old Rahaf Abu Jazar died of exposure to cold after water inundated her family’s tent in Khan Younis, in the south of the enclave. Sign up here. Weeping and holding Rahaf in her hands, her mother Hejar Abu Jazar said she had fed the girl before they went to sleep. "When we woke up, we found the rain over her and the wind on her, and the girl died of cold suddenly," she told Reuters. "There was nothing wrong with her. Oh, the fire in my heart, the fire in my heart, oh my life," she said in tears. GAZA LACKS EQUIPMENT TO COPE WITH DELUGE DUE TO THE WAR Municipal and civil defence officials said they were unable to cope with the storm because of fuel shortages and damage to equipment. They said Israel destroyed hundreds of vehicles, including bulldozers and others used to pump water, during the war, which displaced most of the over two million population and left much of Gaza in ruins. The civil defense service said most of the tent encampments across the enclave were flooded, and it received more than 2,500 calls for help. Some of the belongings of displaced people were seen floating on top of pools of rainwater that filled the alleys of the tent encampments. A U.N. report said 761 displacement sites hosting about 850,000 people are at high risk of flooding and thousands of people had moved in anticipation of heavy rain. U.N. and Palestinian officials said at least 300,000 new tents are urgently needed for the roughly 1.5 million people still displaced. Most existing shelters are worn out or made of thin plastic and cloth sheeting. Gazans have resorted to ripping out iron rods from the debris of bombed houses and using them to prop up tents or to sell for a few dollars. A ceasefire has broadly held since October, but the war destroyed much of Gaza’s infrastructure, leaving grim living conditions. AID SHORTAGES Hamas-led authorities say Israel is not allowing in as much aid as promised under the truce. Aid agencies say Israel is blocking essential items. Israel says it is meeting its obligations and accuses agencies of inefficiency and failing to prevent theft by Hamas, which the group denies. "We hold the Israeli occupation fully responsible for exposing displaced families to climate hazards as it continues closing crossings and preventing the entry of relief items and shelter materials," said Ismail Al-Thawabta, head of the Hamas-run Gaza government media office. The U.N. Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA said flooded streets and soaked tents are worsening already dire conditions. "Cold, overcrowded and unsanitary environments heighten the risk of illness and infection," it said on X. "This suffering could be prevented by unhindered humanitarian aid, including medical support and proper shelter," it added. In Gaza City, three houses collapsed as a result of the rainstorm in areas that had been devastated by Israeli bombardment, the civil emergency service said. The October 10 ceasefire has enabled hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to return to Gaza City's ruins. Israel has pulled troops back from city positions, and aid flows have increased. But violence has not completely halted. Palestinian health authorities say Israeli forces have killed 383 people in strikes in Gaza since the truce. Israel says three of its soldiers have been killed since the ceasefire began, and it has attacked scores of fighters. On Thursday, medics said two Palestinian women were killed, and some other people were wounded in Israeli tank shelling in Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip. The Israeli military didn't offer immediate comment. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/rain-has-flooded-gaza-tents-baby-died-exposure-medics-say-2025-12-11/

2025-12-11 11:34

Central Economic Work Conference sets economic agendas Meeting promises action to boost income and consumption Pressure remains on China to shift from production-driven model BEIJING, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Chinese leaders promised on Thursday to maintain a "proactive" fiscal policy next year that would stimulate both consumption and investment to maintain high economic growth, which analysts expect Beijing to target at roughly 5%. Those pledges were published in a readout by state news agency Xinhua of the annual Central Economic Work Conference held December 10–11, a key gathering of the Communist Party to set the policy agenda and targets for next year. Sign up here. The prospect of forceful fiscal stimulus could ease worries over the slowdown seen in the second half of the year in almost every area of the economy that is not contributing to China's trillion-dollar trade surplus. But the dual, contradictory, focus on consumption and investment cements concerns that Beijing is not yet ready to shift from a production-driven economic model to one that leans more on household spending - a decades-old imbalance that many economists say threatens long-term growth for the sake of maintaining a high, short-term pace. ACTION TO BOOST INCOME AND CONSUMPTION The meeting promised "in-depth implementation of special actions to boost consumption" and "plans to increase the income of urban and rural residents" in order to "unleash the potential for services consumption," according to Xinhua. "The contradiction between strong domestic supply and weak demand is prominent," the readout said. Still, the statement suggested this contradiction was here to stay into 2026, as the leadership also promised to revive investment after a slump in the second half of the year - a policy path that analysts blame for directing resources towards the export-focused manufacturing sector that could otherwise be used to bolster the social safety net and the household sector. "This year’s Economic Work Conference seems more concrete on consumption," said Minxiong Liao, senior economist at GlobalData.TS Lombard APAC. "Fiscal policy is expected to directly stimulate consumption through subsidies and income-boosting plans (such as encouraging the purchase of existing housing stock for use as affordable housing)." At CEWC, Beijing sets targets for economic growth, the budget deficit, debt issuance and other variables for the year ahead. The targets are agreed at the meeting, but won't be officially released until an annual parliament meeting in March. China is likely to stick to its current annual economic growth target of around 5% next year, government advisers and analysts said, a goal that would require authorities to keep fiscal and monetary spigots open as they seek to snap a deflationary spell. China is widely expected to roll out stronger fiscal stimulus next year, keeping its budget deficit target near current levels - or raising it slightly - alongside increased debt issuance, analysts said. China set a record budget deficit target of around 4% of GDP this year to support its growth goal. CHINESE ECONOMY RESILIENT IN FACE OF TARIFFS Policymakers will flexibly deploy tools including cuts to banks’ reserve requirement ratios and interest rates, according to the readout. China's economy has shown remarkable resilience this year in the face of higher trade tariffs imposed by Washington, having diversified its export markets away from the United States even though it ultimately benefits from the U.S. role as the main source of demand in the global economy. Its trillion-dollar-a-year trade surplus, however, is stirring tensions with Europe and other trade partners, and drawing criticism from the International Monetary Fund and other observers who say its production-focused economic growth model is unsustainable. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-signals-it-will-rely-fiscal-stimulus-manage-economy-2026-2025-12-11/

2025-12-11 11:33

ISTANBUL, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Turkey's central bank lowered its policy interest rate by 150 basis points to 38% on Thursday, cutting at the higher end of expectations, as data over the last two months suggested that disinflation is back on track after summer price pressure. The bank's policy-making committee said inflation expectations and pricing behaviour are "showing signs of improvement" even as they continue to pose risks to the disinflation process. Sign up here. Consumer prices rose 31.1% year-on-year in November, with a 0.87% monthly increase, both readings below expectations and helped by easing food prices. Inflation had been above forecasts in August and September, but below them in October and November. "Following an increase in September, the underlying trend of inflation declined slightly in October and November," a month in which it was "lower than expected due to a downward surprise in food prices," the committee said. "Leading indicators for the last quarter point out that demand conditions continue to support the disinflation process," it added. In a Reuters Poll, the median estimate was for a 100 basis-point decrease in the one-week repo rate, though responses were largely split with some economists forecasting a sharper cut of 150 points or more. After a policy reversal earlier this year due to political turmoil, Turkey's rate-cutting cycle resumed in July with a 300-basis-point move, followed by cuts of 250 points and then 100 in October amid rising food prices. The poll, conducted last week, suggested the central bank will continue easing next year, bringing its policy rate to 28% by the end of 2026. The central bank has pledged to reach its 16% interim inflation target by end-2026, even as markets are sceptical. The bank projects 2026 inflation between 13% and 19%. One decision that would affect both the inflation and rates path is how much authorities decide to raise the minimum wage for next year, a debate in which workers are pressing for an increase that offsets past losses, especially for low-income households. A commission of government, labour, and employer members will open debate on the matter in Ankara on Friday. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-central-bank-cuts-rates-by-150-pts-38-2025-12-11/

2025-12-11 11:32

Dec 11 (Reuters) - Ukraine had handed the U.S. a revised 20-point peace plan to end the war with Russia, ABC News reported on Thursday, citing a Ukrainian official. The revised plan contains "some new ideas" regarding territories and control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the report says. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-hands-revised-20-point-peace-plan-proposal-us-abc-news-reports-2025-12-11/

2025-12-11 11:29

FTSE 100 up 0.1%; FTSE 250 flat Healthcare stocks lead gains, tech, utilities fall Entain dips after CFO replacement plans Grizzly Research short on Ceres Power, shares dip Dec 11 (Reuters) - London's FTSE 100 held steady on Thursday, as the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman's comments, suggesting a less hawkish stance than anticipated, were met with a global cautious sentiment that limited gains. The UK's blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) , opens new tab was up 0.1% by 1043 GMT, while the mid-cap FTSE 250 (.FTMC) , opens new tab index was little changed. Sign up here. The Fed lowered rates by an expected 25 basis points in a divided vote on Wednesday, but signalled interest rates are unlikely to fall further in the near term as it awaits clarity on the labour market. "Though Powell stressed a wait-and-watch approach, the statement and press conference were less hawkish than feared... the door thus remains open for further easing, though at a slower pace," said Mohit Kumar, an economist at Jefferies. Healthcare stocks on the FTSE 100 were the biggest boosts, with AstraZeneca (AZN.L) , opens new tab up 1% and Convatec (CTEC.L) , opens new tab adding 2.6%. Miners (.FTNMX551020) , opens new tab gained 0.2%, tracking a rise in copper prices. However, utilities (.FTUB6510) , opens new tab declined 0.5%, while tech stocks, though not heavily weighted on the benchmark index, slipped by 0.8%. Investors adopted a cautious stance against tech stocks globally following a dour forecast from U.S. cloud firm Oracle (ORCL.N) , opens new tab, renewing some concerns over valuation and returns on lofty AI investments, which had caused a sell-off in November. Among individual stocks, Entain (ENT.L) , opens new tab fell 3.4% to the bottom of the FTSE 100, after the gambling firm said International Distribution Services executive Michael Snape will replace current finance chief and deputy CEO Rob Wood next year. Associated British Foods (ABF.L) , opens new tab fell 2% as the Primark owner traded without entitlement to its latest dividend payout. RS Group (RS1R.L) , opens new tab topped the FTSE 250 with a 5.7% gain after a rating upgrade from J.P.Morgan, while Ceres Power (CWR.L) , opens new tab slid 3.5% after Grizzly Research disclosed a short position in the clean-energy firm. https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/ftse-100-subdued-gains-less-hawkish-fed-comments-tempered-by-global-caution-2025-12-11/