2025-07-31 19:41

BOJ revises up inflation forecasts; yen strengthens slightly Dollar buoyant with year's first monthly gain in sight Fed reiterates patient approach on rates South Korea to face 15% US tariffs, more trade deals awaited NEW YORK/LONDON, July 31 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was headed for its first monthly gain for 2025 against major currencies on Thursday, underpinned by easing trade tensions and U.S. economic resilience. The dollar rose against the yen , trading at its highest level since May 28. It is on track to gain about 5% for July, making it the biggest monthly increase since December 2024. It was last up 0.83% at 150.765. Sign up here. In a widely expected move, the Bank of Japan on Thursday kept short-term interest rates steady at 0.5% by a unanimous vote, but revised up its inflation forecasts for the next few years. That came after the Federal Reserve left U.S. interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, ignoring persistent calls by President Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also indicated he was in no rush to cut rates. The greenback has been bolstered by a hawkish Fed and U.S. economic resilience, with uncertainty over Trump's chaotic tariffs easing after an array of trade deals. The dollar index was up 0.16% at 99.949 after rising nearly 1% in the previous session. It is on track for the first monthly gain in 2025. "There's been a clash and a friction between what the Fed is seeing and deciding to do, and what the White House and perhaps a lot of people in the equity market want the Fed to do," said Juan Perez, director of trading of Monex USA in Washington. "If we had left the hawkish tone, the hawkish stance, and the hawkish press conference altogether, it makes sense to see the U.S. dollar rise - which it did. But today, because of the friction between the Fed and the White House, the dollar is once again hitting the brakes," Perez added. Data showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased just marginally last week, suggesting that the U.S. labor market remained stable. The euro has been one of the biggest casualties of the dollar's ascent this month, as investors have rushed to unwind bets laid on earlier this year on the premise that the European market may offer better opportunities. The euro was last up 0.19% at $1.1426, having hit a seven-week low on Wednesday. Still, it remained on track to lose nearly 3% this month. "I think there was too much optimism in the price of the euro. And I think that's come back this week. There's been a lot of commentary about how the EU conceded to the U.S. on this trade deal and that's been a dose of reality for the Europeans," Rabobank strategist Jane Foley said. The dollar weakened 0.31% against the Swiss franc to 0.812 franc but it is on track to gain 2.36% for the month. The European Union's agreement on Sunday to 15% tariffs on U.S. exports has cleared up a lot of uncertainty. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also said the U.S.-Japan trade deal reduced uncertainty on the outlook and heightened the likelihood of Japan durably hitting the BOJ's 2% inflation target - a prerequisite for further rate hikes. New U.S. trade deals included one with South Korea, which Trump said on Wednesday would pay a 15% tariff on U.S. imports. That was lower than a threatened 25% and the Korean won strengthened on the news and last stood at 1,395.21 per dollar. Trump on Wednesday also slapped a 50% tariff on most Brazilian goods and said the United States is still negotiating with India. But he gave Mexico a 90-day reprieve ahead of his Friday deal deadline. "We do however continue to expect that the tariff rates now being announced and codified will ultimately prove to be more dollar negative, even if some of the bilateral announcements (particularly on the EU) likely catalysed the striking dollar rebound so far this week," Goldman Sachs analysts led by Stuart Jenkins wrote in an investor note. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-set-first-monthly-gain-2025-trade-deals-ease-uncertainty-2025-07-31/

2025-07-31 19:14

July 31 (Reuters) - Robinhood's (HOOD.O) , opens new tab earnings highlight how the app once at the center of the meme-stock mania has evolved into a broader platform to keep retail investors engaged even during market turbulence. The trading platform reported a surge in volumes across equities, options and cryptocurrencies in its second quarter, with momentum continuing in July despite market jitters over tariffs and high interest rates. Sign up here. That marks a sharp contrast from 2022, when Robinhood's business was closely tethered to retail stock buying. After the Federal Reserve kicked off its rate-hiking cycle in March, the firm's trading revenue slumped by nearly half from a year earlier, as many small investors moved to the sidelines. "In 2021, when we went public, it felt to me like we were much more fragile than today," Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said on the earnings call on Wednesday. "But now the road map, if you look at things that we expect to deliver in the short-term, medium-term and long-term, is pretty packed," he added, referring to new products such as tokenization and perpetual futures. For the second-quarter, Robinhood reported transaction-based revenue of $539 million, up 65% from a year earlier. Options soared 46% and equities climbed 65%. Crypto revenue nearly doubled. The company has also deepened its crypto presence with a $200 million acquisition of Bitstamp in June, boosting revenue. "Retail engagement remains strong on the platform," analysts at Piper Sandler wrote in a note, adding that the variety of products was supporting the engagement, with equity and options trading volumes tracking at record levels in July, while crypto volumes are near a six-month high. MEME-STOCK FRENZY Earlier this month, a wave of meme-stock mania sent shares of several highly shorted companies, such as donut chain Krispy Kreme (DNUT.O) , opens new tab, retailer Kohl's (KSS.N) , opens new tab and action camera maker GoPro (GPRO.O) , opens new tab, soaring on retail purchases but without any clear catalyst. The moves echoed the 2021 retail trading frenzy, when individual investors used Robinhood to buy shares of video game retailer GameStop (GME.N) , opens new tab, squeezing hedge funds that had taken short positions against the stock. While there have been some instances of elevated volumes this year, Robinhood CFO Jason Warnick said that the platform enjoys steady engagement even during quieter periods. "Some months will be higher than others. But we feel really good about the acquisition of new customers and the high retention rate," he added. CRYPTO BOOST Crypto trading has soared since the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president for a second term. Volumes have declined from a burst after the election, but analysts see the crypto market remaining sharply above pre-election levels. "We believe the Bitstamp acquisition solidifies Robinhood's crypto roadmap and increases crypto's future contribution to Robinhood's overall earnings, which has most frequently trended to about 10%-20% of revenue," analysts at J.P. Morgan said. Robinhood shares recently touched record highs and the company now has a market capitalization close to $94 billion. Wall Street's average rating on the stock is "buy", with at least seven brokerages raising their price targets after the market-beating earnings report. (This story has been refiled to remove an image with no changes to text) https://www.reuters.com/business/robinhood-outgrows-meme-frenzy-era-retail-trading-matures-2025-07-31/

2025-07-31 18:44

SEC Chair Paul Atkins unveils crypto rulemaking plans Atkins' proposals align with Trump's crypto-friendly stance 'Project Crypto' to modernize securities rules for digital assets July 31 (Reuters) - The head of the U.S. securities regulator unveiled sweeping plans to overhaul capital markets regulations on Thursday to accommodate cryptocurrencies and blockchain-based trading, in a major win for the digital asset industry, which has long pushed for tailored rules. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins laid out numerous pro-crypto plans in remarks delivered in Washington, including that he has directed commission staff to craft guidelines to determine when a crypto token is a security as well as proposals for a wide range of disclosures and exemptions. Sign up here. Atkins also said he has asked SEC staff to work with firms looking to offer tokenized securities -- blockchain-based shares of stocks or funds that have become an increasing focus of many major crypto players. "This represents more than a regulatory shift — it is a generational opportunity," Atkins said in a speech before the America First Policy Institute, a think tank that was created to support President Donald Trump's policy agenda. If enacted, Atkins' proposals would represent a broad shift for U.S. securities regulation, potentially enabling crypto to become more enmeshed with traditional finance. Details of his plans for crypto come just a day after a cryptocurrency working group formed by Trump called on the SEC to create new rules specific to digital assets and outlined the administration's stances on market-defining crypto legislation. In a landmark report, the White House encouraged the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to use their existing authorities to "immediately enable the trading of digital assets at the federal level." On the campaign trail last year, Trump courted crypto cash by pledging to be a "crypto president" and promote the adoption of digital assets. That is in stark contrast to former Democratic President Joe Biden's regulators, who, in a bid to protect Americans from fraud and money laundering, cracked down on the industry. The Biden administration's SEC sued exchanges Coinbase (COIN.O) , opens new tab, Binance, and dozens more, alleging they were flouting U.S. laws. Trump's SEC has since dropped those cases. Influential crypto executives had accused the Biden administration of being hostile to digital assets, and routinely expressed frustration with the lawsuits Biden’s SEC brought against several crypto companies, many of which alleged that most crypto tokens were unregistered securities. ‘PROJECT CRYPTO’ Atkins, who worked with crypto firms in recent years before heading the SEC, said the agency’s crypto rulemaking will be housed under a new initiative dubbed “Project Crypto,” which he said will seek to broadly modernize securities rules and regulations. Project Crypto will move to swiftly implement the White House’s recommendations laid out in Wednesday’s report, Atkins said. Those include establishing an "innovation" exemption from securities laws to allow market participants to engage in new business models, and providing guidance as to how digital assets can be considered commodities. Atkins said he has asked SEC staff to draft “clear and simple rules of the road” for crypto distributions, custody and trading, and that in the meantime, the regulator will consider using interpretative and exemptive authorities to provide regulatory flexibility for crypto issuers, exchanges and other intermediaries before new rules are formally adopted. Atkins also said that most cryptocurrencies are not securities, a designation that requires registration with the SEC along with certain disclosures. Crypto firms have tried to avoid that designation, because current regulations require securities to be traded separately from other assets, like commodities. But that could soon change, Atkins said, adding that he has directed SEC staff to develop a framework that allows for certain crypto assets that are deemed to be securities to be traded alongside tokens that are not securities. The extensive agenda Atkins laid out for crypto on Thursday is a major change in fortunes for the crypto industry, which spent millions of dollars in last year’s election to support Trump and other Republican congressional candidates. Atkins' plans for crypto answer nearly all of the crypto industry's major wishlist items. The crypto sector has for years argued that existing U.S. regulations are inappropriate for cryptocurrencies and has called for Congress and regulators to write new ones that clarify when a crypto token is a security, commodity, or falls into another category, such as stablecoins. Trump's support for the crypto industry has sparked conflict-of-interest concerns, which at times have threatened to derail congressional crypto legislation that the industry has said is critical to its future. Trump's family has launched cryptocurrency meme coins, and the president also holds a stake in World Liberty Financial, a crypto platform. The White House has denied that any conflicts of interest are present. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/us-securities-regulator-lays-out-sweeping-plans-accommodate-crypto-2025-07-31/

2025-07-31 17:51

Microsoft shares jump after results Shares rebound 50% from April lows AI advancements boost stock post-ChatGPT launch July 31 (Reuters) - Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab hit $4 trillion in stock market value on Thursday, becoming the second publicly traded company after Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab to surpass that milestone following a blockbuster earnings report that showed its massive bets on AI are paying off. Strong results from Microsoft and Meta Platforms (META.O) , opens new tab late on Thursday also fueled gains in Amazon (AMZN.O) , opens new tab and sent chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab to a record high, with the four heavyweight AI players gaining over half a trillion dollars in market value. Sign up here. Wall Street's heavyweight players leading in AI - Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (GOOGL.O) , opens new tab and Meta Platforms - now account for a quarter of the S&P 500, according to LSEG data. Microsoft forecast a record $30 billion in capital spending for the first quarter of the current fiscal year to meet soaring AI demand. It reported booming sales in its Azure cloud computing business and said its Copilot AI tools had surpassed 100 million monthly active users. Microsoft's shares were last up 4.5% after climbing as much as 8%. "It is in the process of becoming more of a cloud infrastructure business and a leader in enterprise AI, doing so very profitably and cash generatively despite the heavy AI capital expenditures," said Gerrit Smit, lead portfolio manager, Stonehage Fleming Global Best Ideas Equity Fund. Meta Platforms also doubled down on its AI ambitions, forecasting quarterly revenue that blew past Wall Street estimates as artificial intelligence supercharged its core advertising business. Redmond, Washington-headquartered Microsoft first reached a $1 trillion stock market value in 2019. Its move to $3 trillion was more measured than Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab and Apple's (AAPL.O) , opens new tab, with AI-bellwether Nvidia tripling its value in just about a year and clinching the $4 trillion milestone on July 9. Apple was last valued at $3.12 trillion. Lately, breakthroughs in trade talks between the United States and its trading partners ahead of President Donald Trump's August 1 tariff deadline have buoyed stocks, propelling the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to record highs. Microsoft's multibillion-dollar bet on OpenAI is proving to be a game changer, powering its Office Suite and Azure offerings with cutting-edge AI and fueling the stock to more than double its value since ChatGPT's late-2022 debut. Its capital expenditure forecast, its largest ever for a single quarter, has put it on track to potentially outspend its rivals over the next year. Meta upped the lower end of its annual capital spending by $2 billion - just days after Alphabet made a similar move - signaling that Silicon Valley's race to dominate AI technology is accelerating. Cloud computing heavyweight Amazon.com (AMZN.O) , opens new tab rose 2% ahead of its quarterly report after the bell. AI chip supplier Nvidia climbed 0.8%, lifting its market capitalization to a record $4.4 trillion. https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/microsoft-reaches-4-trillion-valuation-after-solid-results-2025-07-31/

2025-07-31 16:25

Executives confident of meeting earnings targets Model of buying and selling companies has been challenged Co-CEO says business better than commentary suggests NEW YORK, July 31 (Reuters) - KKR (KKR.N) , opens new tab executives said strong momentum in their business gave them confidence on Thursday of beating earnings targets for 2026, after the investment group reported higher second quarter profit bolstered by an increase in fee-related earnings. The New York-based firm and its peers have seen the traditional private equity model of buying and selling companies face headwinds as high interest rates hampered divestments, and this year President Donald Trump's trade war froze some deals. Sign up here. But investors have expressed more optimism in recent weeks and market activity has picked up, including a handful of initial public offerings. KKR and its peers are also branching out into different asset classes including credit and asset-backed finance. "Our team remains very excited around the business momentum we are seeing across the firm," KKR Chief Financial Officer Rob Lewin said. "As you look at 2026, as a management team, we look at that portfolio, we look at our $350 million of operating earnings guidance for next year, and we feel really good in our ability to beat that." Last week, the world's biggest alternative asset manager Blackstone (BX.N) , opens new tab said it expects a revival in deals and IPOs. KKR on Thursday reported 9% growth in adjusted net income to $1.1 billion, or $1.18 per adjusted share, ahead of an LSEG SmartEstimate of $1.13 per share. It said the earnings were supported by growing management fees and its capital markets business. Its shares retreated to trade 1.4% lower in morning trading, while the S&P 500 benchmark index (.SPX) , opens new tab was up 0.5%. Some of the share price reaction could be due to the fact the stock is relatively expensive, analysts said. "KKR's shares are slightly to modestly overvalued relative to our current and revised fair value estimate," said Greggory Warren, an analyst at Morningstar. VOLATILITY Market volatility was high in the quarter, stemming from Trump's pledges to impose tariffs on trading partners around the world. Fee-related income, however, can provide money managers with stable earnings when markets are turbulent. Large firms like KKR also benefit from having diversified portfolios. Co-Chief Executive Scott Nuttall said volatility creates investment opportunities. He added that 80% of earnings came from recurring revenue streams. "The commentary makes it sounds like business is very difficult, the results and our experience speak otherwise," Nuttall said. KKR's assets under management now total $686 billion, a 14% annual increase. It raised $28 billion in new capital, less than the $30.5 billion it had hauled in during the first quarter. KKR made a raft of announcements in the days before the earnings. It acquired HealthCare Royalty Partners, which buys rights to the royalties flowing from pharmaceutical companies' drug sales, and announced an investment of almost $4 billion in a data center development in Texas with Energy Capital Partners. KKR also teamed up with Capital Group to seek SEC approval for a fund that blends public and private equity, looking to capitalize on rising demand from wealthy retail investors. Separately, KKR said it had raised $6.5 billion to invest in asset-backed finance. It said this fund will focus on opportunities to buy debt similar to the deal it and PIMCO struck with motorcycle maker Harley Davidson (HOG.N) , opens new tab. https://www.reuters.com/business/kkr-says-current-momentum-leaves-it-confident-beating-2026-targets-2025-07-31/

2025-07-31 15:00

Central bank wants lower inflation target Finance minister yet to give formal approval Bank forges ahead anyway with latest announcement PRETORIA, July 31 (Reuters) - South Africa's central bank said on Thursday it would now aim for 3% inflation, not 4.5%, despite the finance minister not yet signing off on a formal target change, as it lowered its main lending rate again. South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago has been pushing for a lower target for years, saying the current 3%-6% target band is too wide and erodes the competitiveness of Africa's biggest economy. Sign up here. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has been more reluctant to change the target, and the decision ultimately rests with him. He said earlier this month that discussions between the National Treasury and SARB on the target should not be rushed. Asked whether the SARB had discussed its new preference for 3% inflation with Godongwana before Thursday's announcement, Kganyago said the Monetary Policy Committee does not discuss its policy decisions with anyone ahead of time. "We had to make a judgment as a committee to say ... we can lock in these gains and make sure that South Africans benefit from them," he told a press conference. "Changing policy is never easy. There is no such thing as a costless policy. What you can't do is to refuse to make a decision, because there are costs to a policy. There are costs in sticking to the existing target as well." In a written response to Reuters' questions about the SARB's decision, Finance Minister Godongwana said the Treasury would not discuss its interactions with the central bank through the media. "If there is going to be any comment on this matter, it will be through our normal meetings and then during the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), as I have previously stated," he said. South African government bonds, including the 2035 maturity , strengthened on the SARB's commitment to lowering inflation. "De facto South Africa now has a 3.0% preferred level of inflation, and monetary policy will now work towards its achievement. This is a significant macroeconomic positive," said Razia Khan, chief economist for Africa and Middle East at Standard Chartered. Thursday's rate cut, by 25 basis points to 7.00% (ZAREPO=ECI) , opens new tab, was in line with the median forecast of a Reuters poll of economists. The MPC was unanimous in its decision. Headline inflation (ZACPIY=ECI) , opens new tab rose to 3.0% year on year in June from 2.8% in May after being below the target range for three months running. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-african-central-bank-lowers-inflation-goal-without-ministers-sign-off-2025-07-31/