2025-07-29 10:32

Euro steady for now after retreat Wall St futures edge up before Fed, mega cap earnings Analysts warn tariffs a drag for EU and US economies Oil holds gains after Trump shortens Russia deadline LONDON, July 29 (Reuters) - World shares were mixed on Tuesday, as a lift from European earnings was offset by lower Asian markets, while the U.S.-EU trade deal brought home to investors the prospect that punishing tariffs might erode growth and spur inflation. The initial relief over Europe's 15% levy dissipated when considered against the 1% to 2% tariff the continent had faced prior to U.S. President Donald Trump taking office. Sign up here. Still, European earnings helped stocks rebound on Tuesday after falling a day earlier as leaders in France and Germany lamented the trade deal outcome as potentially being a drag on growth. Trump also flagged a "world tariff" rate of 15% to 20% on all trading partners that were not negotiating a deal, among the highest rates since the Great Depression of the 1930s. "While the worst case scenario was averted, the implied EU tariff increase from 1% in January is a significant tax increase on EU exports," wrote economists from JPMorgan in a note. "This is a very big shock that unwinds a century of U.S. leadership in global free trade," they said. "While we no longer see a U.S. recession as our baseline from this shock, the risk is still elevated at 40%." A further risk to world growth came from a sudden spike in oil prices after Trump threatened a new deadline of 10 or 12 days for Russia to make progress toward ending the war in Ukraine or face tougher sanctions on oil exports. An air of caution saw MSCI's broadest index of world shares (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab tick down about 0.1%. European shares recovered after Monday's sell-off. Europe's broad STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab was up 0.6%, helped by some positive reactions to quarterly earnings. French (.FCHI) , opens new tab and German (.GDAXI) , opens new tab stock indexes rose over 1%. China stocks ended higher on Tuesday as a new round of Sino-U.S. trade talks continued while Japan's Nikkei lost 0.8% (.N225) , opens new tab. The euro was flat at $1.1580 , after falling 1.3% overnight in its largest drop since mid-May. The dollar index was up at 98.714 , after the rush out of short dollar positions lifted it 1% overnight, while it eased a one-week high on the yen to stand at 148.48 . Wall Street futures held firm on hopes for upbeat results from mega caps this week that include Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab, Meta Platforms (META.O) , opens new tab, Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab and Amazon (AMZN.O) , opens new tab. S&P 500 futures nudged up 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures added 0.4%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries held at 4.408%, having crept higher on Monday as markets braced for another steady decision on interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Futures imply a 97% chance the Fed will keep rates at 4.25%-4.5% at its meeting on Wednesday and reiterate concerns that tariffs will push inflation higher in the short term. Analysts also assume one, or maybe two, Fed officials will dissent in favour of a cut and supporting wagers for a move in September. The odds could change depending on a slew of U.S. data this week including gross domestic product for the second quarter, where growth is seen rebounding to an annualised 2.4%, after a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter. Figures on job openings are due later on Tuesday that will help refine forecasts for the crucial payrolls report on Friday. "The equity rally has narrowed, valuations are stretched, and market internals are flashing caution, and consumer data—particularly around housing and retail—show signs of fatigue," said Bruno Schneller, managing director at Erlen Capital Management, Zurich. "This is the start of a 'show-me' phase—for both policymakers and cooperates. Markets will demand confirmation: from earnings, from macro, and from the Fed," Erlen added. Canada's central bank also meets on Wednesday and again is widely expected to hold rates at 2.75%. In commodity markets, prices for copper and iron ore were under pressure while gold was up roughly 0.3% at $3,324 an ounce . Brent climbed over 30 cents to $70.37 a barrel, while U.S. crude gained over 40 cents to $67.14. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-3-2025-07-29/

2025-07-29 10:27

MUMBAI, July 29 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee remained under pressure on Tuesday, as dollar demand from importers and weakness in foreign portfolio flows continued to drag it towards the 87 to the U.S. dollar mark, its weakest level since March. The rupee hit a four-month low of 86.9150 against the U.S. dollar before closing at 86.8150, down 0.2% on the day. Sign up here. Over the last 15 sessions, the rupee has closed stronger only twice. Traders and FX sales executives attribute the weakness to uncertainty over U.S.-India trade negotiations, weak portfolio flows and dollar demand from importers. While exporters were active near 86.50 last week, the next bout of dollar-selling interest is likely around 87-87.10 levels, a salesperson at a large foreign bank said. The risk of the rupee coming under further pressure will be among the considerations for the Reserve Bank of India at its upcoming policy review next week, economists at BofA Global Research said in a note. They expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged and "observe transmission of existing cuts and measures, before choosing the future course of action." On the day, the dollar index fleetingly rose to the 99 handle as the euro fell to a one-month low, with investors sobering up to the fact that terms of the trade deal between the U.S. and the European Union favoured the former. Asian currencies were steady to modestly weaker, with the Indonesian rupiah leading losses. The rupee and the Indonesian rupiah are among the worst performing regional currencies this year, down over 1% each. Globally, investors' focus is on the Federal Reserve's policy decision, due on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged but commentary from Chair Powell and whether the decision is unanimous will be in focus for investors to gauge the potential for future cuts. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-falls-near-87-per-dollar-trade-uncertainty-outflows-persist-2025-07-29/

2025-07-29 09:05

LONDON, July 29 (Reuters) - British lenders approved more mortgages than expected last month, adding to signs that the housing market has recovered from a dip after the expiry of a tax break for homebuyers, and consumers also upped their borrowing, data showed on Tuesday. The Bank of England said 64,167 mortgages were approved in June, up from 63,288 in May. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to 63,000 approvals during the month. Sign up here. The expiry in April of a discount on the stamp duty paid by some homebuyers led to a drop in approvals to just over 60,000 that month before a recovery in May and June. Richard Donnell, executive director at real estate website Zoopla, linked the rise in demand for mortgages to stable borrowing costs. "Zoopla data shows unusually high levels of housing market activity for the early summer with sales agreed up 8% on last year and 11% more buyers in the market," Donnell said. "We expect increased housing activity to support demand for mortgages in the rest of the year." The BoE also said unsecured consumer borrowing increased by 1.417 billion pounds ($1.89 billion) in June, stronger than the median forecast for a 1.2 billion-pound rise in the Reuters poll of economists and up from May's rise of 920 million pounds. ($1 = 0.7498 pounds) https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-lenders-approve-more-mortgages-consumers-borrow-more-2025-07-29/

2025-07-29 08:32

Hungary struggles to recover from inflation surge Economy likely remained flat in annual terms in Q2 Government affirms 4.1% of GDP deficit target for 2025 Public debt to stagnate around 74% this year and next BUDAPEST, July 29 (Reuters) - Hungary's government slashed its 2025 economic growth forecast to 1% on Tuesday from 2.5% expected at the start of the year, prolonging an anaemic recovery from an inflationary surge triggered by Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Prime Minister Viktor Orban's government had hoped a rebound in economic growth would help him secure another term in next year's elections, when political analysts expect him to face the stiffest opposition challenge in over a decade. Sign up here. But the economy remained flat in the first quarter, worse than expectations, and the performance in the second quarter was likely to have been similar, Economy Minister Marton Nagy said, weighed down by agriculture and industry. "On a quarterly basis, growth will likely be positive, but in annual terms, we can expect near stagnation," Nagy told a media briefing, adding that weak farm sector output had probably cut between 0.3 and 0.4 of a percentage point off growth. The new forecast is more closely aligned with the Hungarian central bank's 0.8% projection and the OECD's 0.9% estimate, rounding off the weakest three-year stretch leading up to a national election since Orban took power in a 2010 landslide. Orban aims to fend off the opposition challenge with large-scale tax cuts for families, cheap loans to first-time home buyers and pension rises due to higher-than-expected inflation, now seen averaging 4.7% this year. Nagy said Sunday's U.S.-EU framework trade agreement would reduce uncertainty, adding that he believed the car sector would be able to absorb a 15% tariff rate. Neighbouring Romania has said it expected a small hit to growth from tariffs. Despite the weaker economic performance, Nagy said there was no need to amend the 2025 budget, as consumption-linked tax revenues were on track and as the government had already implemented a spending freeze earlier this year. Orban's government targets a shortfall worth 4.1% of output this year, down from a higher-than-forecast 4.9% level in 2024. Hungary's debt, the EU's highest outside the euro zone, is expected to stagnate at around 74% this year and next. Nagy said the government was committed to keeping the deficit below 4% of economic output next year, adding however, that 192 billion forints ($555.59 million) worth of reserves would be needed to cover risks from lower-than-expected growth. ($1 = 345.58 forints) https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/hungarys-government-slashes-2025-growth-forecast-1-2025-07-29/

2025-07-29 08:02

NEW DELHI, July 29 (Reuters) - Russia-backed Indian refiner Nayara Energy, recently sanctioned by the European Union, has turned to domestic firm Rediff.com after the U.S. tech giant Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab suspended IT services, three sources familiar with the matter said. Nayara, which has condemned the sanctions, said on Monday it had filed a case against Microsoft in the Delhi High Court over its withdrawal of services. Sign up here. Nayara, a major buyer of Russian oil that is 49% owned by Russian oil major Rosneft (ROSN.MM) , opens new tab, has struggled with disruptions since coming under European Union sanctions this month targeting Russia over its war in Ukraine, including trimming refinery runs. Sources told Reuters that since last Tuesday, Microsoft had halted services for Nayara, and that employees' Outlook email and Teams messaging accounts had not been working. The Rediff.com service can facilitate communications among Nayara employees but cannot retrieve data and previous emails stored on Microsoft's cloud, sources said. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to media. Nayara and Rediff did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Mumbai-based Rediff offers online consumer services and also provides cloud-based email services for businesses. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/russia-backed-nayara-taps-indian-it-firm-microsoft-suspends-service-sources-say-2025-07-29/

2025-07-29 07:49

At least 30 people dead as extreme rain hits Beijing More than 80,000 Beijing residents relocated At least eight dead, villages flooded on Monday in neighbouring regions BEIJING, July 29 (Reuters) - Extreme weather killed at least 30 people in Beijing after a year's worth of rain fell in less than a week, forcing the relocation of more than 80,000 people, damaging roads and cutting off power and communications in more than 130 villages. Hundreds of flights and a number of train services were delayed or suspended as the storms peaked on Monday night, stretching the capital's disaster management capabilities and prompting some experts to call the city a rain "trap". Sign up here. Most of the rain had converged on Beijing's mountainous north near the Great Wall, with at least 28 deaths reported in the district of Miyun and two in Yanqing, Xinhua reported. The state-run news agency did not say when or how the deaths occurred. "The flood came in an instant, you just had no buffer," said Zhai, 33, who runs a grocery shop in Miyun, now a disaster zone amid collapsed bridges, mangled cars and shattered pipelines. She showed Reuters the marks left behind as the floodwaters receded. They had risen to 1.5 metres (4.92 ft), submerging her shop for hours and ruining her food and beverage stocks. Liu, who owns a nearby restaurant, was on the verge of tears as she stared at the overturned stools and mud-covered table-tops in her eatery. Large appliances like fridges had sat submerged for hours and were likely damaged, said her husband Yang, estimating the damage at more than 100,000 yuan ($14,000). 'EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE' Heavy rains began on July 23 and peaked around Beijing and surrounding provinces on Monday, with Miyun experiencing rainfall of up to 573.5 mm (22.6 inches) - levels local media described as "extremely destructive". The average annual rainfall in Beijing is around 600 mm. The most intense downpour occurred on Saturday in Beijing's hilly Huairou, where 95.3 mm of rain fell in one hour. "The cumulative amount of precipitation has been extremely high - reaching 80–90% of the annual total in just a few days in some areas," said Xuebin Zhang of the University of Victoria in Canada and CEO of the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. "Very few systems are designed to handle such an intense volume of rainfall over such a short period," Zhang said. The local topography - mountains to the west and north - "trapped" the moist air and forced it upward, amplifying the deluge, he said. China's usually arid north has seen record rains in recent years, with some scientists linking it to global warming. In the summer of 2023, heavy rain and flooding killed at least 33 people in Beijing. Rainfall in the city of Xingtai in the neighbouring Hebei province exceeded 1,000 mm in two days - double the yearly average. 'FLOOD STILL COMING' Heavy rain also pounded the province of Hebei and the city of Tianjin near Beijing. In Hebei, eight people were killed as a landslide hit a village on Monday, after the region received six months' worth of rain over the weekend. Four remained missing. In two villages in Tianjin on Monday, only the roofs of single-storey houses were visible, China Central Television (CCTV) reported. The emergency management ministry said the disaster relief situation had been "complex and severe". Residents pleaded for faster rescue efforts in posts on social media platform Weibo. "The flood is still coming, and there is still no power or signal, and I still can't get in touch with my family!" a Weibo user wrote on Tuesday morning. ($1 = 7.1767 Chinese yuan) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/beijings-extreme-rain-trap-kills-least-30-displaces-thousands-2025-07-28/