2025-07-25 19:58

Sentiment boosted by US-Japan trade deal Markets pause ahead of next week's Fed, BOJ policy meetings Focus on US-EU trade negotiations Markets shrug off Trump's Fed visit Pound weakens against euro and dollar after soft economic data NEW YORK, July 25 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar advanced on Friday, bolstered by solid economic data that suggested the Federal Reserve could take its time in resuming interest rate cuts, while tariff negotiations showed more clarity that eased some uncertainty in the market. The U.S. currency showed little reaction to data showing new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods unexpectedly fell in June while shipments of those products increased moderately. That suggested business spending on equipment slowed considerably in the second quarter. Sign up here. "The dollar regained some ground the past two days, after being on the defensive earlier in the week ... supported mostly by an encouraging set of U.S. economic data that argues for continued patience at the Fed," said Elias Haddad, senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in London. The greenback was set for its biggest weekly drop in a month, ahead of more tariff dialogue and central bank meetings next week, while sterling dipped after softer-than-expected British retail sales data. Both the Fed and the Bank of Japan are expected to hold rates steady at next week's policy meetings, but traders are focusing on the subsequent comments to gauge the timing of the next moves. "We see some room for optimism at the (Fed) meeting," wrote BNP Paribas in a research note. "Economic uncertainty associated with trade policy, while not entirely resolved, has declined markedly." Politics is a factor for both central banks, most dramatically in the U.S., where President Donald Trump once again pressed for lower interest rates on Thursday as he locked horns with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Brown Brothers' Haddad said the Fed's monetary policy is being "overshadowed by the political pressure to lower interest rates. That's one of the reasons why I think the dollar's upside is limited." The dollar managed to recover a touch against the euro late on Thursday, however, after Trump said he did not intend to fire Powell, as he has frequently suggested he could. "The market relief was based on the fact that Trump refrained from calling for Powell to go, although that was based on Trump's view that Powell would 'do the right thing'," said Derek Halpenny, head of EMEA research at MUFG. He added, however, that "the theme of Fed independence being undermined by the White House will unlikely go away and remains a downside risk for the dollar." BOJ MEETING Falls against the euro and yen leave the dollar index , which measures the dollar against six other currencies, at 97.45, on track for a drop of 0.8% this week, its weakest performance in a month, though it bounced back 0.2% to 97.663 on Friday. Meanwhile, in Japan, though the trade deal signed with the U.S. this week could make it easier for the BOJ to continue rate hikes, the bruising loss for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition in upper house elections on Sunday complicates life for the BOJ. The yen was softer, thanks in part to below-expectations Tokyo inflation data, with the dollar last up 0.4% at 147.59 yen, though on course for a weekly 0.9% fall , the lowest since June 23. The euro was flat at $1.1741 , but set for a weekly gain of nearly 1%, its best showing in a month. The common currency took some support Thursday from the European Central Bank meeting. Policymakers left the policy rate at 2%, as expected, but the bank's relatively upbeat assessment of the economic outlook and signs that an EU-U.S. trade deal is near caused investors to reassess previous assumptions of one more rate cut this year. In contrast, soft British data is supporting expectations of more Bank of England rate cuts, and causing euro zone bond yields to rise faster than British ones, supporting the euro against the pound. The euro rose to 87.43 pence versus sterling on Friday, its highest since April, building on a 0.44% gain the previous day. . It was last up 0.4% at 87.42 pence. Data on Friday showed British retail sales data for June came in slightly below analysts' expectations, albeit rebounding from a sharp drop in May. Figures on Thursday showed business activity grew only weakly in July and employers cut jobs at the fastest pace in five months. Against the dollar, the pound fell 0.6% to $1.3434 . https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-dollar-rises-track-weekly-drop-ahead-fed-boj-2025-07-25/

2025-07-25 19:13

US and China economic concerns impact oil prices Venezuelan oil exports may rise as US eases rules US oil/gas rig count falls for 12th time in 13 weeks - Baker Hughes NEW YORK, July 25 (Reuters) - Oil prices eased on Friday and settled at a three-week low as traders worried about negative economic news from the U.S. and China and signs of growing supply. Losses were limited by optimism U.S. trade deals could boost global economic growth and oil demand in the future. Sign up here. Brent crude futures fell 74 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $68.44, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 87 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $65.16. Those were the lowest settlement levels for Brent since July 4 and WTI since June 30. For the week, Brent was down about 1% with WTI down about 3%. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday in Scotland. European Union officials and diplomats said they expected to reach a framework trade deal this weekend. The euro zone economy has remained resilient to the pervasive uncertainty caused by a global trade war, a slew of data showed on Friday, even as European Central Bank policymakers appeared to temper market bets on no more rate cuts. In the U.S., new orders for U.S.-manufactured capital goods unexpectedly fell in June while shipments of those products increased moderately, suggesting business spending on equipment slowed considerably in the second quarter. Trump said he had a good meeting with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and got the impression that the head of the U.S. central bank might be ready to lower interest rates. Lower interest rates reduce consumer borrowing costs and can boost economic growth and demand for oil. In China, the world's second-biggest economy, fiscal revenue dipped 0.3% in the first six months from a year earlier, the finance ministry said, maintaining the rate of decline seen between January and May. GROWING SUPPLIES? The U.S. is preparing to allow partners of Venezuela's state-run PDVSA (PDVSA.UL), starting with U.S. oil major Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab, to operate with limitations in the sanctioned nation, sources said on Thursday. That could boost Venezuelan oil exports by a little more than 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), news U.S. refiners would welcome, as it would ease tightness in the heavier crude market, ING analysts wrote. Iran said it would continue nuclear talks with European powers after "serious, frank, and detailed" conversations on Friday, the first such face-to-face meeting since Israel and the U.S. bombed Iran last month. Venezuela and Iran are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Any deal that could increase the amount of oil either sanctioned country could export would boost the amount of crude available to global markets. OPEC said the joint ministerial monitoring committee (JMMC) scheduled to convene on Monday does not hold decision-making authority over production levels. Four OPEC+ delegates said an OPEC+ panel is to raise oil output when it meets, noting the producer group is keen to recover market share while summer demand is helping to absorb the extra barrels. OPEC+ includes OPEC and allies like Russia. In Russia, the world's No. 2 crude producer behind the U.S., daily oil exports from its western ports are set to be around 1.77 million bpd in August, down from 1.93 million bpd in July's plan, Reuters calculations based on data from two sources show. In the U.S., energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the 12th time in 13 weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-dip-settle-3-week-low-us-china-economic-concerns-2025-07-25/

2025-07-25 18:49

SAO PAULO, July 25 (Reuters) - Chemical products companies in Brazil, which exported $2.4 billion to the U.S. last year, face a slew of contract cancellations as President Donald Trump has threatened a new 50% tariff on the South American nation's exports from August 1. Since Trump's announcement, export orders have been canceled for certain resins and compounds used to make fertilizers, which Brazil supplies to the U.S. agriculture sector, Andre Cordeiro, head of Brazilian chemical lobby Abiquim, said on Friday. Sign up here. "Fundamentally, these decisions are being made because the bet is that he will actually apply the tariff," Cordeiro said. One company in Brazil had all its contracts for exports to the U.S. canceled, Cordeiro said, adding that other businesses have seen some of their contracts canceled. There are also cases where sellers had secured export financing for the order, which was later revoked. He declined to name the affected exporters. Losses associated with the tariffs go beyond direct exports, as almost every industry uses chemicals in manufacturing processes, from oil to steel, from machinery to production of agricultural commodities, he said. "No one produces coffee, even grains, without some kind of chemical product in the process." Cordeiro added that chemical companies are losing export business and also local sales to clients that export goods into the U.S. market. Brazilian plywood exporters, for example, use chemicals for bonding and themselves have faced U.S. order cancellations, he said. Orange juice makers, which sent 42% of their exports to the U.S. last year, also use chemical preservatives. Brazilian companies like Braskem (BRKM5.SA) , opens new tab have operations in the U.S. and could be affected. Dow Chemical (DOW.N) , opens new tab, which has 10 plants in Brazil and sizeable exports of silicon metal for processing in the U.S., is also at risk. Braskem and Dow did not immediately comment. Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) , opens new tab, which declined to comment, operates in Brazil and serves clients in various industries. Tariffs are unjustified because Brazil's chemical sector runs a $7.9 billion trade deficit with the U.S., Abiquim said. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-tariffs-weigh-brazil-chemical-exporters-spark-order-cancellations-2025-07-25/

2025-07-25 18:38

Trump considers removing capital gains taxes on home sales Gasoline prices may drop below $3 a gallon this summer Tech stocks dominate S&P 500, investors may be overweighted NEW YORK, July 25 (Reuters) - This was originally published in the On The Money newsletter, where we share U.S. personal finance tips and insights every other week. Sign up here to receive it for free. Is it time to say goodbye to capital gains taxes on your home? Sign up here. The biggest personal finance story (in my humble opinion!) this week is news that President Donald Trump is considering removing capital gains taxes on home sales. "If the Fed would lower the rates, we wouldn't even have to do that," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. "But we are thinking about no tax on capital gains on houses." Under current law, homeowners can exclude up to $250,000 (single filers) or $500,000 (joint filers) in gains from the sale of a primary residence. These thresholds haven’t changed since 1997 , opens new tab! A National Association of Realtors study , opens new tab found that 34% of homeowners (29 million) could already have enough equity in their homes to exceed the $250,000 cap, and more than 10% (8 million) could have enough to surpass the $500,000 threshold. Congress recently passed legislation that made permanent broad tax cuts passed in 2017 during Trump's first presidency. The bill also fulfilled Trump's campaign promises to include new tax breaks for tips, overtime pay, seniors and auto loans. Here is a look at who could gain , opens new tab from an end to capital gains taxes on home sales. What do you think about eliminating capital gains taxes on your home? Would you be more likely to sell your home? Write to me, and let me know your thoughts. IT'S A GAS Have you noticed lower prices at the pump lately? U.S. gasoline prices could fall below $3 a gallon this summer for the first time in over four years as a stretch of bad weather dampens fuel demand and a jump in imports fills inventories. Gasoline prices are in a lull, a boon for Americans traveling this summer. Consumers endured record prices at the pumps after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine upended energy markets. Summer is typically the peak season for gasoline consumption in the U.S., but demand is lower this year. More fuel-efficient vehicles on the road and post-pandemic changes in driving patterns – particularly remote work – are expected to permanently reduce U.S. gasoline consumption from its peak in 2018. How will lower gas prices impact your driving habits? READ, WATCH, LISTEN Coke's shift to cane sugar would be expensive, hurt US farmers Goldman, BNY team up to launch tokens tied to money market funds Trump executive order to help open up 401(k)s to private markets , opens new tab Delta plans to use AI in ticket pricing draws fire from US lawmakers Luxury heavyweights struggle to shake off shopper fatigue What is behind the latest rally in meme stocks? How Americans handle late-career layoffs , opens new tab Preserve capital, don’t swing for the fences, portfolio manager says Big Alcohol prepares to fight back as buzzy cannabis drinks steal sales ARE YOU HOLDING TOO MUCH TECH? Is your portfolio bursting with technology stocks? Equity investors are probably overweighted in technology, given the strong performance run of the past two years. Indeed, the stocks that comprise the Magnificent Seven are up almost 25% in the past year vs. 17% for the Nasdaq Composite index. More recently, the performance of the Magnificent Seven (which includes Google and Tesla) is mixed. But they have all rebounded since April from a selloff following Donald Trump’s "Liberation Day" announcement of sweeping global tariffs. The group amounted to one-third of the weight of the S&P 500 as of Friday, due to their massive market caps, their largest combined presence since the start of the year, according to LSEG Datastream. My retirement portfolio is invested in target-date funds, which are rebalanced on a regular basis, so the tech position is about 24%, which is slightly below its average peers. Are you overloaded in tech right now or have you adjusted your portfolio in recent weeks? Let me know your thoughts on the Magnificent Seven or the broader tech sector! https://www.reuters.com/business/is-it-time-say-goodbye-capital-gains-taxes-your-home-2025-07-25/

2025-07-25 18:23

TIRANA, July 25 (Reuters) - A wildfire injured three people and forced the evacuation of about 2,000 residents near the southern Albanian town of Delvina on Friday. "Three people have sustained burns and suffered asphyxiation," Delvina Deputy Mayor Brunilda Meleqi told Reuters by phone. Sign up here. Six villages were evacuated, and a church and 10 uninhabited houses were destroyed by the blaze, she said. The fire's intensity eased in the evening after two helicopters were deployed to assist firefighting efforts. The Defence Ministry said around 60 soldiers had been dispatched to help contain the fire. Greece and the wider Balkans sweltered under the third heatwave of the summer this week, with laborers barred from work, tourists kept away from the ruins, and firefighters battling blazes scattered across the arid countryside. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/wildfire-albania-injures-three-people-forces-evacuation-2000-2025-07-25/

2025-07-25 16:48

WASHINGTON, July 25 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he liked a strong dollar but "you make a hell of a lot more money" with a weaker one. "So when we have a strong dollar, one thing happens: It sounds good. But you don't do any tourism. You can't sell tractors, you can't sell trucks, you can't sell anything," Trump said at the White House before leaving on a trip to Scotland. Sign up here. "It is good for inflation, that's about it." The dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab, which measures the greenback's strength against six major currencies, steadied on Friday after hitting two-week lows earlier in the week. It is still down roughly 10% over the six months Trump has been in office. Trump has often complained that dollar strength blunts U.S. export competitiveness and hurts U.S. manufacturing and jobs. Trump told reporters on Friday that manufacturers would be the first to benefit from a falling dollar, citing construction and mining equipment maker Caterpillar (CAT.N) , opens new tab, whose shares have risen 16% over the last month. Japan and China fought for weaker currencies for decades and were able to dominate markets over the years, Trump said. "Now it doesn't sound good, but you make a hell of a lot more money with a weaker dollar - not a weak dollar but a weaker dollar - than you do with a strong dollar," he said. At the same time he acknowledged that pushing for a weaker dollar wasn't a good look, saying a strong dollar is good psychologically. "It makes you feel good," he said. "I love strong dollars." https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-strong-dollar-sounds-good-you-make-hell-lot-more-with-weaker-one-2025-07-25/