2025-07-24 13:30

ECB keeps rates steady as it awaits clarity over trade Fed, Bank of Japan meet next week After spate of rate cuts, easing is slowing down LONDON, July 24 (Reuters) - The pace of central bank rate cuts is slowing as early movers near the end of their easing cycles while sticky inflation keeps others cautious. Politics both domestic and international is another complication for central bankers, particularly in the United States, where President Donald Trump continues to muse publicly about firing Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Sign up here. Here's where 10 big central banks stand on the monetary policy path. 1/ SWITZERLAND Bets that the Swiss National Bank will use negative interest rates to tackle the seemingly unstoppable rise of the safe haven franc have faded after it kept benchmark borrowing costs on hold at 0% in June. Traders have since put 75% odds on another pause in September and speculate the SNB has started intervening to weaken the franc. 2/ CANADA The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold steady for now as U.S. tariff tensions contribute to a baffling economic outlook, with growth contracting as inflation rises and trade war disruptions to consumer behaviour muddle the outlook further. Money markets expect that the formerly dovish central bank, which implemented 225 basis points (bps) of cuts in the nine months to April, will keep rates at 2.75% on July 30. 3/ SWEDEN Sweden's central bank cut its key rate to 2% from 2.25% last month, and minutes from that meeting said policy could be eased again this year if growth disappoints and inflation remains tame. The Riksbank has been one of the more aggressive central banks, with 200 bps of cuts since May 2024. 4/ NEW ZEALAND The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates steady earlier this month but said it expected to loosen monetary policy if price pressures continued to ease as forecast. The RBNZ has cut rates by 225 bps already this cycle. 5/ EURO ZONE The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday after cutting eight times in a year, biding its time while Brussels and Washington negotiate over trade. Its main policy rate is currently at 2% down from 4% a year ago, and inflation is back at the ECB's 2% goal. Markets see around an 80% chance of a final 25 bp cut by year end but that depends on whether policymakers fear inflation might fall too far below target. That in turn depends on a trade deal and whether the euro continues to appreciate. 6/ UNITED STATES The Fed meets next week, with markets all but certain it will remain on hold despite heavy pressure from Trump to make significant rate cuts. Trump appeared close to trying to fire Powell last week, but backed off with a nod to the market disruption that would likely follow. Further rate cuts are anticipated later this year and investors see roughly a 50% chance of a 25 bps reduction in September. A move then had been seen as likely until last week's data showed inflation rose to 2.7% year-on-year in June. 7/ BRITAIN The Bank of England meets on Aug 7. Markets expect a 25 bps rate cut even after data last week showed a surprise jump in inflation and a less-dramatic-than-feared cooling in the labour market. Sticky inflation means the Bank of England has been more cautious than most with easing. Markets price two, 25 bps rate cuts by year-end -- including an August move. 8/ AUSTRALIA The Reserve Bank of Australia is cautious too and surprised markets earlier this month by holding rates steady at 3.85%, saying it wanted to wait to confirm inflation will continue to slow. It was a rare split decision, but Governor Michele Bullock said the disagreement was more about timing and, if inflation continues to slow, the bank remains on an easing path. At least two more 25 bps cuts are priced by year end. 9/ NORWAY Norway's central bank cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25% last month, its first reduction since 2020. The Norges Bank has been the most cautious among developed market central banks, and data this month showing core inflation at 3.1% reinforced this stance. Only one more cut this year is fully priced. 10/ JAPAN The Bank of Japan, the sole central bank in hiking mode, has had its task complicated by uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and Japanese politics. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has denied media reports he decided to quit. However, after Japan and the U.S. struck a trade deal this week, BOJ governor, Shinichi Uchida, signalled conditions for resuming hikes may start to fall into place. Uchida said the deal had reduced uncertainty and increased the likelihood Japan will sustainably hit its 2% inflation goal - a requirement for further rate increases some policymakers say. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-cenbank-graphics-2025-07-24/

2025-07-24 12:53

July 24 (Reuters) - Union Pacific (UNP.N) , opens new tab, the largest U.S. freight railroad operator, beat second-quarter profit estimates on Thursday, powered by higher revenue from coal shipments and improved pricing. Coal shipment volumes, a weak spot for U.S. railroad operators, have picked up after U.S. President Donald Trump signed executive orders aimed at boosting coal production. Sign up here. Union Pacific, seen as a barometer for U.S. economic activity, also benefited from strong volumes in its grain products segments and industrial chemicals shipments. While the policy shift has provided a recent boost to rail carriers, the North American railroad industry has struggled with volatile freight volumes, rising labor and fuel costs and growing pressure from shippers over service reliability. The West Coast rail giant has reportedly been in early-stage talks with its East Coast peer, Norfolk Southern (NSC.N) , opens new tab, to explore a cross-continental railroad merger, possibly creating a single-line network stretching from coast to coast. However, a merger with Norfolk would be subject to severe antitrust scrutiny from regulatory bodies such as Surface Transportation Board, which oversees railroads. Union Pacific's quarterly profit rose to $3.03 per share, beating analysts' average estimate of $2.91 per share, according to data compiled by LSEG. Adjusted operating ratio, a key metric for measuring the operational efficiency of a railroad, rose by 230 basis points to 58.1% from a year earlier. Total operating revenue for the quarter ended June 30 came in at $6.15 billion, compared with the average estimate of $6.16 billion. The company said operating revenue was driven by higher volume and "solid" core pricing gains. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/railroad-operator-union-pacifics-quarterly-profit-rises-2025-07-24/

2025-07-24 12:51

July 24 (Reuters) - Shares of Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) (IIAN.NS) , opens new tab fell nearly 30% on Thursday, as investors grew concerned that a planned overhaul of electricity pricing could increase competition and erode the bourse's market dominance. IEX, currently India's leading platform for spot electricity price discovery, faces pressure following the power regulator's announcement on Wednesday of a phased rollout of market coupling starting in January. Sign up here. Under the new system, other power exchanges will also act as market couplers, challenging IEX's central role. The stock ended lower for a seventh consecutive session and logged its worst intraday single-day performance since listing in 2017. Market coupling is an economic model used in energy markets to create a single, uniform price for electricity across different trading platforms or exchanges. IEX "is currently undertaking a detailed impact assessment of the implications of this regulatory change," it said in an exchange filing on Thursday. The order is "worse" than "what we have built in", and IEX is likely to feel the impact on its market share, says Bernstein. The brokerage, which maintains a "market perform" rating on the stock, cut its target price to 122 rupees from 160 rupees to "reflect (the) full impact of market coupling". On average, IEX shares are rated "buy" with a median target price of 215 rupees, per data compiled by LSEG. The company's shares closed down 29.6% at 132.32 rupees, swinging to a year-to-date loss of 27.2%. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/indian-energy-exchange-sinks-30-fears-rising-competition-new-pricing-rules-2025-07-24/

2025-07-24 12:46

Mediterranean heatwave has scorched swathes of land Ten firefighters killed in central Turkey Minister says strong winds and scorching heat creating extremely dangerous conditions BILECIK, Turkey/NICOSIA, July 24 (Reuters) - Firefighters across Turkey and Cyprus battled multiple wildfires on Thursday amid a searing Mediterranean heatwave that has scorched swathes of land and killed 10 firefighters in central Turkey. At least six separate wildfires burned across Turkey and Turkish Agriculture and Forestry Minister Ibrahim Yumakli warned that strong winds and scorching heat were creating extremely dangerous conditions. Sign up here. Late on Wednesday, Yumakli said 10 firefighters were killed while battling a fire in the central Eskisehir province, adding that 14 others were injured. Fanned by strong winds, the fire later spread to another central province, Afyonkarahisar, while some towns and villages were evacuated. In the northwestern province of Bilecik, fires raged for a fourth straight day, as firefighters struggled to contain them and evacuated several villages. Some residents were later allowed to return to areas declared safe. "They couldn't intervene. There is no decent road, forests are thick and it's rocky. Helicopters don't work at night, and because they don't work, they couldn't intervene,” said Cemil Karadag, a resident of the village of Selcik. "It engulfed our village from two or three sides, they couldn't intervene ... It spread very quickly with the effect of the wind, but, thank God, (the centre of) our village wasn't damaged that much." In the Black Sea province of Sakarya, a wildfire erupted even as firefighters worked to contain another nearby. A key highway was shut due to the blaze, while some villages and towns were evacuated. Another fire in the neighbouring province of Karabuk, where the UNESCO World Heritage City of Safranbolu is located, quickly grew and led to 10 villages being evacuated, while a sixth blaze raged in the Western province of Manisa. 'SHEER HELL' In the eastern Mediterranean island of Cyprus, firefighters battled for a second day to control a massive wildfire which engulfed mountain villages north of the city of Limassol. Two people were found dead in their car, trapped by the blaze which started on Wednesday. Scores of homes were destroyed as people fled their homes overnight from a towering wall of flames. Although the cause was not immediately known, authorities said they would be looking at the possibility of arson. "It was sheer hell," said Father Michalis, a Greek Orthodox priest who had to evacuate from Lofou village. After subsiding early Thursday, authorities were struggling to contain flare-ups at midday, stoked by strong winds. "Our focus right now is to control the fire, utilising to the maximum all ground and air forces," government spokesperson Konstantinos Letymbiotis said. "We are facing an unprecedented situation." In addition to air assets from Spain, Egypt and Jordan, Israel has also said it would send assistance, he said. Aircraft from the British bases on Cyprus were also assisting in the effort. Ersin Tatar, president of the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is recognised only by Turkey and has been split from the island's south, said his government was ready to help as well. Although heatwaves and wildfires are common in this region, their impact on human life and the damage has become much more pronounced in recent years. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/firefighters-struggle-contain-wildfires-turkey-cyprus-amid-heatwave-2025-07-24/

2025-07-24 12:45

LONDON, July 24 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank left interest rates steady at 2%, as expected on Thursday, taking a break after a year of policy easing to wait for clarity over Europe's future trade relations with the United States. The euro traded at $1.1733 , below where it was before the ECB statement, after U.S. jobless data showed a larger drop than expected in initial claims. Euro area bond yields , and European shares remained higher on the day. Sign up here. Germany's rate sensitive two-year Schatz yield was last up 6.3 basis points on the day at 1.859%, little changed from levels seen before the decision. Europe's broad STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) , opens new tab was up 0.46% on the day. Money market price in a more-than 80% chance of another 25-bp rate cut by year-end. COMMENTS: MARK WALL, CHIEF EUROPE ECONOMIST, DEUTSCHE BANK, LONDON: "As effectively telegraphed by Lagarde, the ECB paused the easing cycle in July. The question is, will this be a short pause, or a long pause? And could this be a pause that sees 2% policy rates eventually become the terminal rate in this easing cycle? Uncertainty remains high and the ECB rightly wants to keep its options open. But if trade uncertainty fades, the combination of a resilient economy and significant fiscal easing will eventually translate into upside risks to inflation. Markets are not far away from switching focus from the last cut to the first hike." ARNE PETIMEZAS, DIRECTOR RESEARCH, AFS GROUP, AMSTERDAM: "Lagarde and the ECB still lack the confidence to offer any meaningful guidance or place trust in their forecasts. Otherwise, they would fine-tune policy - perhaps even take out an insurance cut in the autumn. They're happy playing the reactive game and wait for data and events to tell them what to do next." NICK REES, HEAD OF MACRO RESEACH, MONEX EUROPE, LONDON: "I wasn’t expecting anything much from the statement and at first glance there doesn’t seem to be much in it. The big question for us is: do they realistically think they need to cut rates again given that euro/dollar isn’t appreciating at pace, and the indications are that the EU has a deal with the U.S., and that takes two of the risks to inflation off the table? Now to see how confident (ECB President Christine) Lagarde sounds about it." RICHARD CARTER, HEAD OF FIXED INTEREST RESEARCH, QUILTER CHEVIOT, LONDON: "If the dollar continues to be as weak as it has this year and inflation remains in check, pressure for a rate cut in September could ramp up once again. "With the ECB well ahead of other central banks in that rate-cutting cycle, it has diverged significantly from other central banks. "Uncertainty remains the theme of the day for the ECB. But as soon as those clouds lift, we shouldn't be surprised to see it get back on the pedal and start cutting rates once again." MARCHEL ALEXANDROVICH, ECONOMIST, SALTMARSH ECONOMICS, LONDON: "At 2%, rates remain squarely to the middle of the ECB’s 1.5% to 2.5% neutral range. Uncertainty is highly elevated, however, and, if trade tensions escalate, further easing may well be required later in the year to help support business and consumer confidence." SYLVAIN BROYER, CHIEF EMEA ECONOMIST, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS: "The policy rate stands comfortably within the estimated neutral range and is effectively at zero in real terms. The labour market is still tight, meaning the unemployment rate is below its equilibrium, and the ECB believes in a Phillips-like relation between unemployment and inflation. On top of that, Germany is about to start a huge re-flation of its economy that will have positive spillovers over the rest of the euro zone and beyond. "Maybe the next ECB move is not down, as markets believe but the pause can last and the next move might be up." MATHIEU SAVARY, CHIEF STRATEGIST, BCA RESEARCH: "The ECB stood pat today, but this pause is not the end of the story. Disinflation is already deeply entrenched across the euro zone. Now, with a stronger euro, looming U.S. tariffs, and intensifying Chinese competition, the region faces a new threat: deflation. The Governing Council may soon find itself forced to cut rates more aggressively than markets currently anticipate." https://www.reuters.com/business/view-ecb-leaves-rates-steady-after-year-easing-2025-07-24/

2025-07-24 12:36

Israel looking at latest Hamas proposal for Gaza truce Conditions in Gaza deteriorating, hunger widespread Pressure on both Israel and Hamas to agree to ceasefire JERUSALEM/CAIRO, July 24 (Reuters) - Israel is reviewing a revised response from Hamas to a proposed ceasefire and hostage-release deal, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said on Thursday, as Israeli air and ground strikes continued to pound the Gaza Strip. Hamas confirmed it had handed over a new proposal, but did not disclose its contents. A previous version, submitted late on Tuesday, was rejected by mediators as insufficient and was not even passed to Israel, sources familiar with the situation said. Sign up here. Both sides are facing huge pressure at home and abroad to reach a deal, with the humanitarian conditions inside Gaza deteriorating sharply amidst widespread, acute hunger that has shocked the world. A senior Israeli official was quoted by local media as saying the new text was something Israel could work with. However, Israel's Channel 12 said a rapid deal was not within reach, with gaps remaining between the two sides, including over where the Israeli military should withdraw to during any truce. A Palestinian official close to the talks told Reuters the latest Hamas position was "flexible, positive and took into consideration the growing suffering in Gaza and the need to stop the starvation". Dozens of people have starved to death in Gaza the last few weeks as a wave of hunger crashes on the Palestinian enclave, according to local health authorities. The World Health Organization said on Wednesday 21 children under the age of five were among those who died of malnutrition so far this year. Later on Thursday, the Gaza health ministry said two more people had died of malnutrition. The head of Shifa Hospital in Gaza City said the two were patients suffering from other illnesses who died after going without food for several days. Israel, which cut off all supplies to Gaza from the start of March and reopened it with new restrictions in May, says it is committed to allowing in aid but must control it to prevent it from being diverted by militants. It says it has let in enough food for Gaza's 2.2 million people over the course of the war, and blames the United Nations for being slow to deliver it; the U.N. says it is operating as effectively as possible under conditions imposed by Israel. AIRSTRIKES The war between Israel and Hamas has been raging for nearly two years since Hamas killed some 1,200 people and took 251 hostages from southern Israel in the deadliest single attack in Israel's history. Israel has since killed nearly 60,000 Palestinians in Gaza, decimated Hamas as a military force, reduced most of the territory to ruins and forced nearly the entire population to flee their homes multiple times. Israeli forces on Thursday hit the central Gaza towns of Nuseirat, Deir Al-Balah and Bureij. Health officials at Al-Awda Hospital said three people were killed in an airstrike on a house in Nuseirat, three more died from tank shelling in Deir Al-Balah, and separate airstrikes in Bureij killed a man and a woman and wounded several others. Nasser hospital said three people were killed by Israeli gunfire while seeking aid in southern Gaza near the so-called Morag axis between Khan Younis and Rafah. The Israeli military said Palestinian militants had fired a projectile overnight from Khan Younis toward an aid distribution site near Morag. It was not immediately clear whether the incidents were linked. Washington has been pushing the warring sides towards a deal for a 60-day ceasefire that would free some of the remaining 50 hostages held in Gaza in return for prisoners jailed in Israel, and allow in aid. U.S. Middle East peace envoy Steve Witkoff travelled to Europe this week for meetings on the Gaza war and a range of other issues. An Israeli official said Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer would meet Witkoff on Friday if gaps between Israel and Hamas over ceasefire terms had narrowed sufficiently. Hamas is facing growing domestic pressure amid deepening humanitarian hardship in Gaza and continued Israeli advances. Mediators say the group is seeking a withdrawal of Israeli troops to positions held before March 2, when Israel ended a previous ceasefire, and the delivery of aid under U.N. supervision. That would exclude a newly formed U.S.-based group, the Gaza Humanitarian Fund, which began handing out food in May at sites located near Israeli troops who have shot dead hundreds of Palestinians trying to get aid. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/israel-studies-hamas-reply-gaza-ceasefire-plan-fighting-continues-2025-07-24/