2025-07-24 12:45

LONDON, July 24 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank left interest rates steady at 2%, as expected on Thursday, taking a break after a year of policy easing to wait for clarity over Europe's future trade relations with the United States. The euro traded at $1.1733 , below where it was before the ECB statement, after U.S. jobless data showed a larger drop than expected in initial claims. Euro area bond yields , and European shares remained higher on the day. Sign up here. Germany's rate sensitive two-year Schatz yield was last up 6.3 basis points on the day at 1.859%, little changed from levels seen before the decision. Europe's broad STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) , opens new tab was up 0.46% on the day. Money market price in a more-than 80% chance of another 25-bp rate cut by year-end. COMMENTS: MARK WALL, CHIEF EUROPE ECONOMIST, DEUTSCHE BANK, LONDON: "As effectively telegraphed by Lagarde, the ECB paused the easing cycle in July. The question is, will this be a short pause, or a long pause? And could this be a pause that sees 2% policy rates eventually become the terminal rate in this easing cycle? Uncertainty remains high and the ECB rightly wants to keep its options open. But if trade uncertainty fades, the combination of a resilient economy and significant fiscal easing will eventually translate into upside risks to inflation. Markets are not far away from switching focus from the last cut to the first hike." ARNE PETIMEZAS, DIRECTOR RESEARCH, AFS GROUP, AMSTERDAM: "Lagarde and the ECB still lack the confidence to offer any meaningful guidance or place trust in their forecasts. Otherwise, they would fine-tune policy - perhaps even take out an insurance cut in the autumn. They're happy playing the reactive game and wait for data and events to tell them what to do next." NICK REES, HEAD OF MACRO RESEACH, MONEX EUROPE, LONDON: "I wasn’t expecting anything much from the statement and at first glance there doesn’t seem to be much in it. The big question for us is: do they realistically think they need to cut rates again given that euro/dollar isn’t appreciating at pace, and the indications are that the EU has a deal with the U.S., and that takes two of the risks to inflation off the table? Now to see how confident (ECB President Christine) Lagarde sounds about it." RICHARD CARTER, HEAD OF FIXED INTEREST RESEARCH, QUILTER CHEVIOT, LONDON: "If the dollar continues to be as weak as it has this year and inflation remains in check, pressure for a rate cut in September could ramp up once again. "With the ECB well ahead of other central banks in that rate-cutting cycle, it has diverged significantly from other central banks. "Uncertainty remains the theme of the day for the ECB. But as soon as those clouds lift, we shouldn't be surprised to see it get back on the pedal and start cutting rates once again." MARCHEL ALEXANDROVICH, ECONOMIST, SALTMARSH ECONOMICS, LONDON: "At 2%, rates remain squarely to the middle of the ECB’s 1.5% to 2.5% neutral range. Uncertainty is highly elevated, however, and, if trade tensions escalate, further easing may well be required later in the year to help support business and consumer confidence." SYLVAIN BROYER, CHIEF EMEA ECONOMIST, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS: "The policy rate stands comfortably within the estimated neutral range and is effectively at zero in real terms. The labour market is still tight, meaning the unemployment rate is below its equilibrium, and the ECB believes in a Phillips-like relation between unemployment and inflation. On top of that, Germany is about to start a huge re-flation of its economy that will have positive spillovers over the rest of the euro zone and beyond. "Maybe the next ECB move is not down, as markets believe but the pause can last and the next move might be up." MATHIEU SAVARY, CHIEF STRATEGIST, BCA RESEARCH: "The ECB stood pat today, but this pause is not the end of the story. Disinflation is already deeply entrenched across the euro zone. Now, with a stronger euro, looming U.S. tariffs, and intensifying Chinese competition, the region faces a new threat: deflation. The Governing Council may soon find itself forced to cut rates more aggressively than markets currently anticipate." https://www.reuters.com/business/view-ecb-leaves-rates-steady-after-year-easing-2025-07-24/

2025-07-24 12:36

Israel looking at latest Hamas proposal for Gaza truce Conditions in Gaza deteriorating, hunger widespread Pressure on both Israel and Hamas to agree to ceasefire JERUSALEM/CAIRO, July 24 (Reuters) - Israel is reviewing a revised response from Hamas to a proposed ceasefire and hostage-release deal, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said on Thursday, as Israeli air and ground strikes continued to pound the Gaza Strip. Hamas confirmed it had handed over a new proposal, but did not disclose its contents. A previous version, submitted late on Tuesday, was rejected by mediators as insufficient and was not even passed to Israel, sources familiar with the situation said. Sign up here. Both sides are facing huge pressure at home and abroad to reach a deal, with the humanitarian conditions inside Gaza deteriorating sharply amidst widespread, acute hunger that has shocked the world. A senior Israeli official was quoted by local media as saying the new text was something Israel could work with. However, Israel's Channel 12 said a rapid deal was not within reach, with gaps remaining between the two sides, including over where the Israeli military should withdraw to during any truce. A Palestinian official close to the talks told Reuters the latest Hamas position was "flexible, positive and took into consideration the growing suffering in Gaza and the need to stop the starvation". Dozens of people have starved to death in Gaza the last few weeks as a wave of hunger crashes on the Palestinian enclave, according to local health authorities. The World Health Organization said on Wednesday 21 children under the age of five were among those who died of malnutrition so far this year. Later on Thursday, the Gaza health ministry said two more people had died of malnutrition. The head of Shifa Hospital in Gaza City said the two were patients suffering from other illnesses who died after going without food for several days. Israel, which cut off all supplies to Gaza from the start of March and reopened it with new restrictions in May, says it is committed to allowing in aid but must control it to prevent it from being diverted by militants. It says it has let in enough food for Gaza's 2.2 million people over the course of the war, and blames the United Nations for being slow to deliver it; the U.N. says it is operating as effectively as possible under conditions imposed by Israel. AIRSTRIKES The war between Israel and Hamas has been raging for nearly two years since Hamas killed some 1,200 people and took 251 hostages from southern Israel in the deadliest single attack in Israel's history. Israel has since killed nearly 60,000 Palestinians in Gaza, decimated Hamas as a military force, reduced most of the territory to ruins and forced nearly the entire population to flee their homes multiple times. Israeli forces on Thursday hit the central Gaza towns of Nuseirat, Deir Al-Balah and Bureij. Health officials at Al-Awda Hospital said three people were killed in an airstrike on a house in Nuseirat, three more died from tank shelling in Deir Al-Balah, and separate airstrikes in Bureij killed a man and a woman and wounded several others. Nasser hospital said three people were killed by Israeli gunfire while seeking aid in southern Gaza near the so-called Morag axis between Khan Younis and Rafah. The Israeli military said Palestinian militants had fired a projectile overnight from Khan Younis toward an aid distribution site near Morag. It was not immediately clear whether the incidents were linked. Washington has been pushing the warring sides towards a deal for a 60-day ceasefire that would free some of the remaining 50 hostages held in Gaza in return for prisoners jailed in Israel, and allow in aid. U.S. Middle East peace envoy Steve Witkoff travelled to Europe this week for meetings on the Gaza war and a range of other issues. An Israeli official said Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer would meet Witkoff on Friday if gaps between Israel and Hamas over ceasefire terms had narrowed sufficiently. Hamas is facing growing domestic pressure amid deepening humanitarian hardship in Gaza and continued Israeli advances. Mediators say the group is seeking a withdrawal of Israeli troops to positions held before March 2, when Israel ended a previous ceasefire, and the delivery of aid under U.N. supervision. That would exclude a newly formed U.S.-based group, the Gaza Humanitarian Fund, which began handing out food in May at sites located near Israeli troops who have shot dead hundreds of Palestinians trying to get aid. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/israel-studies-hamas-reply-gaza-ceasefire-plan-fighting-continues-2025-07-24/

2025-07-24 12:31

Bank says it will determine future step size "prudently" Policy rate raised to 46% in April after market volatility Lira little moved after the rate cut Political risks remain amid corruption probes ISTANBUL, July 24 (Reuters) - Turkey's central bank cut interest rates by 300 basis points to 43% on Thursday, more than expected, resuming an easing cycle that had been disrupted by political turmoil earlier this year, as markets have since calmed and disinflation continued. Going forward, the central bank said it would determine the "step size" of future monetary easing "prudently" and on a meeting-to-meeting basis. It also lowered the upper band of its rate corridor to 46% from 49%. Sign up here. The lira currency remained stable after the decision at 40.48 to the dollar. All but one of 17 economists in a Reuters poll forecast it would cut its benchmark one-week repo rate (TRINT=ECI) , opens new tab, with predictions ranging from 42.50% to 44.50% among those expecting a cut. The bank hiked the policy rate to 46% from 42.5% in April, reversing an easing cycle that had begun in December, following market volatility over the arrest in March of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who is President Tayyip Erdogan's main rival. The bank said the underlying inflation trend remained flat in June and it anticipated a "temporary rise" in monthly inflation this month due to one-off factors. "Recent data indicate that the disinflationary impact of demand conditions has strengthened," the policy committee said. It will set policy "taking into account realized and expected inflation, and its underlying trend in a way to ensure the tightness required by the projected disinflation path," it added. "The step size will be reviewed prudently on a meeting-by-meeting basis with a focus on the inflation outlook". Commenting on this, Kieran Curtis, head of EM local currency debt at fund manager Aberdeen, said "It doesn't look like they will automatically do 300 bps next time." RISKS REMAIN Annual inflation dipped to 35.05% in June, having fallen consistently from a peak of 75% in May last year. The bank's latest survey of market participants' expectations showed inflation was seen at 29.66% at end-2025. Most economists expect easing to continue in the months ahead, with the policy rate falling to 36% by the end of 2025, according to the Reuters poll. The tightening in recent months boosted investor confidence, with foreign holdings of lira-denominated bonds up to about 7% from near 5% after the mayor was arrested and jailed. Political risks remain on investors' radar. The lira and bonds weakened this month after the detention of opposition mayors in Adana, Adiyaman and Antalya in a corruption probe. Prosecutors say the arrests are anti-graft measures, but many see them as politically motivated moves against the opposition party CHP in a crackdown that has seen more than 500 detained in just nine months. "To establish economic confidence we need to see political tensions fading, and that has not yet happened," said Selva Demiralp, professor of economics at Koc University. "It remains the biggest risk and complicates the central bank's plan to move forward," she said, noting a Koc survey , opens new tab in July that shows opposition voters have far higher inflation expectations than those of Erdogan voters. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkish-cenbank-returns-easing-with-big-300-point-rate-cut-2025-07-24/

2025-07-24 12:24

July 24 (Reuters) - Industrial equipment maker Dover (DOV.N) , opens new tab raised its full-year profit forecast on Thursday, citing robust product demand and sustained momentum in aerospace, defense and data center markets. The Downers Grove, Illinois-based company now expects adjusted profit for 2025 between $9.35 and $9.55 per share, from $9.20 to $9.40 per share previously. Analysts, on average, expect annual adjusted profit of $9.35 per share, according to data compiled by LSEG. Sign up here. "Order trends continued to post positive momentum in the quarter, bolstering our confidence in the second half outlook with a majority of our third quarter revenue already in the backlog," CEO Richard Tobin said. Dover supplies equipment and components, consumable supplies, aftermarket parts, software, and digital solutions to a variety of end-markets, including aerospace and defense. The company also manufactures cooling systems for data centers and has benefited from rising demand for artificial intelligence, which has increased need for Dover’s parts and maintenance services. Profits at Dover’s pumps and process unit, which makes thermal connectors for liquid cooling of data centers, rose to $159.5 million, from $137.2 million a year earlier. Earnings at its clean energy and fueling business increased to $107.8 million, up from $87.5 million last year. The segment, which operates under the Dover Fueling Solutions and OPW brands, includes a portfolio of safety and efficiency solutions for the convenience retail, fueling, and clean energy markets. Dover’s adjusted income in the quarter ended June 30 rose 16% to $2.44 per share, above the analysts’ average estimate of $2.39 per share. Quarterly revenue increased 5% to $2.05 billion, slightly beating estimates of $2.04 billion. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/dover-raises-annual-profit-forecast-strong-product-demand-data-center-strength-2025-07-24/

2025-07-24 12:21

EU, US near potential deal with possible 15% tariff, EU diplomats say Trump to visit Federal Reserve on Thursday ECB rate decision due later in the day July 24 (Reuters) - Gold prices extended losses on Thursday from the previous session as easing trade tensions increased risk sentiment and weighed on demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold was down 0.7% at $3,362.48 per ounce by 1207 GMT, after shedding 1.3% in the previous session. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.9% to $3,366.40. Sign up here. Following this week's trade deal between the U.S. and Japan, two European diplomats said on Wednesday the European Union and the U.S. are also edging toward a trade deal that could include a 15% U.S. baseline tariff on EU goods and exemptions. "Gold is down this morning due to the positive news flow around global trade... this is reducing downside risks for global growth and supports the prevailing risk-on mood in financial markets," said Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer. The trade expectations meanwhile drove risk sentiment in the global financial markets, propelling stocks to fresh record highs. "Demand from safe-haven seekers has cooled while central bank buying stays sound, even though not as strong as earlier in the year. We still expect gold to move higher in the longer term," Menke said. A safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainties, gold also tends to do well in a low-interest rate environment. U.S. President Donald Trump will visit the Federal Reserve on Thursday, the White House said, which could intensify tensions between the administration and the central bank. The Fed's policy meeting, scheduled for July 29-30, is expected to maintain interest rates within their current range. Investors anticipate the central bank will resume rate cuts in September. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank is also expected to keep interest rates steady on Thursday. Spot silver slipped 0.6% to $39.03 per ounce, while palladium dipped 2.2% to $1,249.91. Platinum fell 2.5% to $1,392.70, after falling to its lowest level in more than a week. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/gold-extends-losses-after-trade-deal-hopes-curb-safe-haven-demand-2025-07-24/

2025-07-24 12:21

DUBAI, July 24 (Reuters) - People in a wooden boat opened fire on a Comoros-flagged livestock carrier in the Red Sea near Yemen on Thursday, and the vessel was detained by the Yemeni Coast Guard, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). A maritime security official in the Yemeni government told Reuters the vessel was released after being held on suspicion, with naval forces concerned because its AIS tracking system was turned off and it was sailing north from the Horn of Africa. Sign up here. British security firm Ambrey said the vessel, travelling from Bosaso, Somalia, to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, reported having received instructions to proceed to Mocha. It did not make clear who had given the instructions. The security firm advised vessels not to transit east of the Hanish Islands, 30 nautical miles to the northwest of Mocha, a port city on Yemen's Red Sea coast, and to maintain a safe distance from small boat activity. Since Israel's war in Gaza against the Palestinian militant group Hamas began in October 2023, the Iran-aligned Houthis have been attacking vessels in the Red Sea in what they say are acts of solidarity with the Palestinians. Israel has responded by launching attacks on Houthis, who control the most populous parts of Yemen, including the vital Hodeidah port. There was no immediate claim of responsibility from the Houthis for Thursday's attack. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/attackers-fire-comoros-flag-ship-red-sea-near-yemen-2025-07-24/