2025-07-21 11:01
MUMBAI, July 21(Reuters) - The Indian rupee logged a modest decline on Monday, pressured by dollar bids from foreign and local private banks, though broad-based weakness in the greenback helped the local currency limit further losses. The rupee closed at 86.2925 against the U.S. dollar, down about 0.2% on the day, after touching a near one-month low of 86.35 earlier in the session. Sign up here. Asian currencies were flat-to-slightly higher, while the dollar index declined by nearly 0.2% to 98.2. The Indian rupee and the Indonesian rupiah are among the few regional currencies nursing losses on the year so far, even as their peers, such as the Taiwan dollar and the Korean won, have climbed over 11% and 6%, respectively. Muted portfolio flows, India's external investment deficit and likely FX reserve accumulation by the Reserve Bank of India are among the reasons cited by analysts for rupee's lacklustre performance this year. On the day, price action appeared to indicate modest outflows but dollar-buying pressure eased in the latter half of the session, helping the rupee trim its losses, a trader at a private bank said. India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab, closed higher by about 0.5% each on the day, while the benchmark 10-year bond yield was last quoted slightly lower at 6.2986%. In the near term, focus will be on developments on two fronts: how U.S. economic data impact expectations of rate cuts and news surrounding U.S.-India trade negotiations ahead of the August 1 deadline for higher U.S. tariffs to take effect. "We maintain our view that slower growth, profit margin compression and export price reduction will contain the impact of tariffs, and that a slower economy will justify the Fed resuming rate cuts in September," ANZ said in a Monday note. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-weakens-slightly-broad-dollar-softness-cushions-pressure-2025-07-21/
2025-07-21 11:01
GAPYEONG, South Korea, July 21 (Reuters) - Severe wet weather in South Korea eased on Monday following days of torrential rain that triggered floods and landslides and left at least 18 people dead, the Ministry of the Interior and Safety said on Monday. Nine people remained missing as of Sunday evening, the ministry said, with residents of the worst-hit areas in shock. Sign up here. At Gapyeong, some 62 kilometres (38.5 miles) northeast of the capital Seoul, some residents recalled narrow escapes from the floods after 173 millimetres (6.8 inches) of rain deluged the area over just 17 hours on Sunday. Gapyeong was among a number of places that saw a record amount of rain in a single day and broke the previous high for national daily precipitation of 156.3 mm that was set on September 30, 1998. "The ground just sank beneath me, and the water rose all the way up to my neck. Luckily, there was an iron pipe nearby. I held on to it with all my strength," said Ahn Gyeong-bun, the owner of a restaurant that was almost completely destroyed. Two people died and four were missing after a landslide engulfed homes around Gapyeong and floods swept away vehicles as of Sunday, the ministry said. For those remaining like Ahn, an uncertain future awaits. "I've run this restaurant for 10 years ... What am I supposed to do now?" said Ahn, as she stood next to the badly damaged structure of her building perched next to a still swollen river. At times breaking down in tears, the 65-year-old said several of the restaurant's refrigerators were washed away by the flood. Across South Korea, rain damage had been reported to 1,999 public structures and 2,238 private facilities, including farms, the interior ministry said. While the rain has eased, the national weather agency has now issued a nationwide heatwave watch. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung has ordered a thorough response to the disaster, his office said. "As local heavy rains have become commonplace, customised measures based on regional characteristics are urgently needed," said Kang Yu-jung, the spokesperson for Lee's office. "If serious laxity or mistakes are found in civil servants' discipline, we will hold them accountable and thorough measures will be taken to prevent a recurrence." Lee, who took office in June, has promised to make the country safer and to prevent any repeat of the disasters in recent years that have often been blamed on the inadequate response by authorities. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/torrential-rain-leaves-least-18-dead-south-korea-trail-devastation-2025-07-21/
2025-07-21 10:48
Agreement hopes hit by Trump 30% tariff threat, DC talks Diplomats say EU members considering anti-coercion powers Some EU states still baulk at using 'nuclear option' BRUSSELS, July 21 (Reuters) - The European Union is exploring a broader set of possible counter-measures against the United States as prospects for an acceptable trade agreement with Washington fade, according to EU diplomats. An increasing number of EU members, including Germany, are now considering using wide-ranging "anti-coercion" measures which would let the bloc target U.S. services and other sectors in the absence of a deal, diplomats say. Sign up here. The European Commission, which negotiates trade agreements on behalf of the 27-member bloc, had appeared on course for a agreement in which the EU would still have faced a 10% U.S. tariff on most of its exports, with some concessions. Such hopes now seem dashed after President Donald Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff by August 1, and following talks between EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic and U.S. counterparts in Washington last week. Sefcovic, who has said a 30% tariff would "practically prohibit" transatlantic trade, delivered a sober report on the current state of play to EU envoys on Friday, diplomats told Reuters. U.S. counterparts had come up with diverging solutions during his meetings, including a baseline rate that could be well above 10%, the EU diplomats added. "Each interlocutor seemed to have different ideas. No one can tell (Sefcovic) what would actually fly with Trump," one diplomat said. Prospects of easing or removing 50% U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium and 25% on cars and car parts appear limited. 'NUCLEAR OPTION' Washington has also rejected the EU's demand for a "standstill" arrangement, whereby no further tariffs would be imposed after a deal is struck. The rationale, according to diplomats, is that Trump's hands cannot be tied on national security, the basis of Section 232 trade investigations into pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and timber. Accordingly, the mood has pivoted among EU countries, EU diplomats say, and they are more ready to react, even though a negotiated solution is their preferred option. The EU has one package of tariffs on 21 billion euros ($24.5 billion) of U.S. goods that is currently suspended until August 6. The bloc must still decide on a further set of countermeasures on 72 billion euros of U.S. exports. Discussions have also increased on using the EU's wide-ranging "anti-coercion" instrument (ACI) that allows the bloc to retaliate against third countries that put economic pressure on member states to change their policies. Brought in more with China in mind, it would allow the bloc to target U.S. services, limit U.S. companies' access to public procurement or financial services markets or restrict U.S. investment. France has consistently advocated using the ACI, but others have baulked at what some see as a nuclear option. Trump has warned he will retaliate if other countries take action against the United States. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said a week ago that the ACI was created for extraordinary situations, adding: "We are not there yet." The Commission would need a qualified majority of 15 countries making up 65% of the EU population to invoke it. It would not do so unless it was confident of passing it, but there are now growing signs of support building, with Germany among the countries saying it should be considered, EU diplomats say. ($1 = 0.8590 euros) https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-ramp-up-retaliation-plans-us-tariff-deal-prospects-dim-2025-07-21/
2025-07-21 10:47
LONDON, July 21 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. Japan's yen strengthened on Monday as embattled Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba vowed to stay on as leader even after his ruling coalition lost its majority in Sunday's upper house elections. I'll dive into this and the rest of today's market news below. Make sure to check out today's column, where I discuss why a sudden shift in the euro and the threat of U.S. tariffs may give the European Central Bank a reason to pause rate cuts, even as deeper tensions may be quietly building. Today's Market Minute * Japan's ruling coalition lost control of the upper house in an election on Sunday, further weakening Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's grip on power even as he vowed to remain party leader, citing a looming tariff deadline with the United States. * The fringe far-right Sanseito party emerged as one of the biggest winners in Japan's upper house election on Sunday, gaining support with warnings of a "silent invasion" of immigrants, and pledges for tax cuts and welfare spending. * BP named Albert Manifold, the former boss of building materials producer CRH, as its new chairman on Monday, as it looks to address investor concerns about its strategy and weak share performance. * The high-stakes clash between Exxon Mobil and Chevron over a prized South American oilfield may be a sign of what’s to come in the oil and gas industry as competition for a shrinking pool of prime assets heats up, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso. * Asia's run of subdued imports of liquefied natural gas is set to extend for another month in July, with the top-importing region on track for a tiny increase from June. Read the latest from ROI columnist Clyde Russell. Yen bounces as Japan PM hangs on With markets rushing to price 'worst case' scenarios earlier this month, including the chance of a leadership hiatus just as next week's August 1 tariff deadline hits, the outcome was seen as something of a relief. Even though pressure remains on Ishiba, his pledge to remain as PM offers at least some focus for any last minute trade negotiations. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday and global currency markets offered the only clear sign of a reaction. The yen , which had hit a three-month low of 149.18 per dollar last week, firmed to just under 147.7 after the results. That dragged the dollar (.DXY) , opens new tab down across the board. The other big movers first thing have been in global bond markets, where U.S. Treasury yields and European equivalents - perhaps in some read-across to Japanese investor flows - fell notably. Treasury yields fell across the curve to 10-day lows - after rallying last week on a combination of benign producer price and inflation expectations readings as well as comments from Federal Reserve board dove Christopher Waller that he's still in favor of resuming interest rate cuts as soon as this month. Waller said on Friday he would accept the job as head of the U.S. central bank if asked by President Donald Trump, but so far Trump had not contacted him about it. With the Fed outlook now confused by persistent White House pressure on Chair Jerome Powell and the outside chance that Trump attempts to fire him before his term expires next year, last week's incoming price data has offered some comfort. Fed futures reflect a near 70% chance of another Fed cut by September. But the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had counseled Trump not to fire Powell, given the financial disruption that might cause. Trump, who sued the WSJ and its owners including Rupert Murdoch for at least $10 billion on Friday over the newspaper's report on a 2003 birthday greeting from Trump to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, denied the latest WSJ report on Bessent too. Stock markets were steady to higher across the world, with Wall Street stock futures up ahead Monday's bell. Helping the mood, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday he was confident that Washington can secure a trade deal with the European Union, but August 1 is a hard deadline for tariffs to kick in. Lutnick said he had just gotten off the phone with European trade negotiators and there was "plenty of room" for agreement. Meantime, China's foreign ministry said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday. The corporate earnings season unfolds during the week, meantime, with Tesla and Alphabet - two underperforming megacaps this year - reporting on Wednesday. In Europe, Ryanair (RYA.I) , opens new tab surged more than 6% as Europe's largest low-cost carrier's net profit more than doubled in its April-June quarter. Chart of the day China's exports of rare earth magnets to the United States in June soared to more than seven times their May level, marking a sharp recovery in the flow of critical minerals used in electric vehicles, wind turbines and missiles after a Sino-U.S. trade deal. China, which provides more than 90% of the global supply of rare earth magnets, decided in early April to add several rare earth items to its export restriction list in retaliation for U.S. tariffs - creating major supply chain problems for many firms and industries. But the two countries hammered out an agreement last month to resolve the issue - one in which Washington allowed chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab to resume sales of its H20 AI chips to China. Separately, China has quietly issued its first 2025 rare earth mining and smelting quotas without the typical public statement - another sign of Beijing tightening its control over the crucial sector. Today's events to watch * U.S. June leading indicator (8:30 AM EDT); Canada June producer price report * U.S. corporate earnings: Verizon, Domino's Pizza, Steel Dynamics, WR Berkley, NXP, Roper, Alexandria Real Estate Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-07-21/
2025-07-21 10:43
MILAN, July 21 (Reuters) - U.S. tariffs of 30% on European Union goods could shave up to 0.8% off Italy's gross domestic product in 2027, the country's main business lobby said on Monday, as transatlantic trade negotiations continued. President Donald Trump has threatened 30% tariffs on EU imports starting August 1, but his trade chief Howard Lutnick said on Sunday there was "plenty of room" for an agreement with European counterparts. Sign up here. If 30% tariffs are confirmed, and assuming no countermeasures from the EU, Italy's GDP would take a 0.25% hit this year, rising to 0.59% in 2026 and 0.82% in 2027, Confindustria's research unit said. Italy's main exports to the U.S. include machinery, pharmaceuticals, cars and food products such as olive oil, pasta, cheese and wine. In a separate report, professional services group EY issued even bleaker forecasts, predicting 30% tariffs would shave 1.4% off Italy's GDP for 2025-2026, effectively cutting to zero expected growth for the period. Last month, national statistics agency Istat forecast GDP growth of 0.6% this year and 0.8% in 2026. Italy's business lobby last week said the only acceptable U.S tariff would be zero as EU exports are already penalised by a depreciating dollar. The U.S. currency has lost more than 12% against the euro since the start of the year. ($1 = 0.8593 euros) https://www.reuters.com/business/us-tariffs-could-cost-italy-up-08-gdp-business-lobby-says-2025-07-21/
2025-07-21 10:34
July 21 (Reuters) - Tech billionaire Jack Dorsey-led Block's (XYZ.N) , opens new tab shares rose nearly 10% before the bell on Monday after the payments firm was added to the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab, marking a milestone for the fintech sector. The inclusion cements Block's status as one of the most valuable and influential players in the fintech space, and shows how digital payments and financial apps have moved into the mainstream and disrupted traditional banking models in the U.S. Sign up here. Block -- with a market value of about $44.8 billion -- will replace Hess Corp, following its $55 billion merger with oil major Chevron. The change takes effect before trading begins on Wednesday, S&P Dow Jones Indices said. Shares of a company often rise after being added to the S&P 500 as index-tracking funds are required to add them to their portfolio, boosting demand for the stock. J.P. Morgan estimates that Block's inclusion should drive net indexer demand of 54.2 million shares of the company. "We believe XYZ (Block) deserves a higher multiple given recent momentum around product velocity and marketing efforts, and joining S&P 500 helps." The inclusion boosts Block's profile among institutional investors and signals its growing influence in the U.S. financial sector. Co-founded by Jack Dorsey in 2009 as Square, the company rebranded to Block in 2021 to reflect its broader focus on blockchain technology. Block sits at the intersection of traditional payments and digital assets, with products spanning from point-of-sale systems, peer-to-peer transfers and bitcoin services. Crypto payments have also gained momentum this year and are expected to grow further after U.S. President Donald Trump signed a law on Friday establishing a regulatory framework for dollar-pegged stablecoins, a milestone that could help make digital assets a routine way to pay and transfer money. Block's shares have fallen about 14% so far this year through the previous close, underperforming the S&P 500's roughly 7% gain. https://www.reuters.com/technology/block-jumps-after-sp-500-inclusion-new-milestone-fintech-2025-07-21/
