2025-07-18 05:15

Brent, WTI up 0.4% after $1 gain on Thursday Both head for slight weekly decline Drone attacks cut Kurdistan oil output by half Market tightness to stay near-term as seasonal demand supports SINGAPORE, July 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices extended gains on Friday, underpinned by supply concerns following drone attacks on northern Iraqi oilfields and tight market fundamentals amid healthy summer demand. Brent crude futures climbed 29 cents, or 0.40%, to $69.81 a barrel as of 0451 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced 27 cents, or 0.42%, to $67.81 a barrel. Sign up here. Four days of drone attacks on oilfields in Iraqi Kurdistan that shut down half the region's output have supported prices, pushing both contracts up $1 on Thursday. Additionally, seasonal travel demand has propped up the market. In the first two weeks of July, global oil demand has averaged 105.2 million barrels per day (bpd), up by 600,000 bpd from a year earlier and largely in line with forecast, JPMorgan analysts said in a research note. "Crude prices have been broadly stable this week, with no significant moves as the impact of OPEC+ supply increases has been offset by strong seasonal demand in the U.S.," said LSEG's analyst Anh Pham. U.S. crude inventories fell a larger-than-expected last week as exports rose, government data on Wednesday showed. Demand in Asia also firmed as refineries came back from maintenance amid peak seasonal demand. Near-term oil fundamentals are likely to remain supportive, with the market set to remain fairly tight through this quarter, before becoming better supplied from the last three months of the year, ING analysts said in a note on Friday. Still, the uncertainty around U.S. tariff policy, which appears unlikely to be settled until after August 1, is weighing on the market. Plans by major oil producers to remove output cuts will also add to supply as the seasonal Northern Hemisphere summer demand ends. For this week, both Brent and WTI were down more than 1%. Oil output in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region has been slashed from about 280,000 bpd to between 140,000 bpd and 150,000 bpd, two energy officials said. Officials pointed to Iran-backed militias as the likely source of attacks this week on the region's oilfields, although no group has claimed responsibility. Despite the attack, Iraq's federal government said on Thursday that Iraqi Kurdistan will resume oil exports through a pipeline to Turkey after a two-year halt. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-extends-gain-iraq-outages-tight-market-supports-2025-07-18/

2025-07-18 05:06

FTSE 100 outperforming European peers Sterling strength doesn't deter UK stocks Dollar-dominated returns biggest since 2009 LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - Britain's stock market finally appears to be reversing years of underperformance against the rest of Europe, as a UK/U.S. trade deal, lighter regulation and cheap stocks deliver juicy returns that are starting to attract foreign investors. The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) , opens new tab has gained nearly 10% this year to hit record highs this week, beating the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab, which is up 7.5%. Sign up here. On a year-to-date basis, London's blue-chip index has performed better than its European counterpart for the last six weeks, its longest such stretch since late 2022, when a weak pound beefed up revenues for the export-focused FTSE. This week, the financial regulator said it will roll out new rules to boost Britain's capital markets, while Chancellor Rachel Reeves told the financial industry to paint a less negative picture of UK stocks for would-be retail investors, as she seeks new ways to revive a stagnating economy. For foreign investors, the blue-chip index is already looking appealing given sterling's rally this year, while asset managers say the narrative around the UK is shifting. "We are seeing signs of big asset allocators coming back to the UK," Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St. James's Place. "I am talking about non-UK endowments, pension funds, asset owners, wealth managers who were all very underweight the UK post-Brexit," he said. In dollar terms, the FTSE-100 is up nearly 18% so far this year, set for the biggest dollar-denominated returns since 2009, compared with a 6% year-to-date gain in the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab, which has also hit record highs. The pound , up 7% this year against the dollar as investors turn away from U.S. assets in response to heightened U.S. policy uncertainty under U.S. President Donald Trump, acts as a headwind for FTSE constituents, 80% of whom get their revenues from overseas. Yet the index's wealth of large defensive companies, including healthcare, utilities and food retailers, help insulate it against swings in the underlying economy, like drugmaker AstraZeneca (AZN.L) , opens new tab or supermarket chain Tesco (TSCO.L) , opens new tab It also has growth-sensitive resource stocks such as Anglo American (AAL.L) , opens new tab and BP (BP.L) , opens new tab to tap into strength in oil, copper and gold. Britain meanwhile is one of the few economies facing less trade uncertainty with a U.S. trade deal in place. In contrast, the European Union faces the threat of 30% tariffs if there is no agreement by August 1. 'TEA AND BISCUIT' "The UK stock market is the calming cup of tea and biscuit in an uncertain world. There’s nothing fancy on offer, just reliable names that do their job day in, day out," AJ Bell investment analyst Dan Coatsworth said. Valuations for FTSE-100 companies have lagged those elsewhere in Europe for years. The 2016 Brexit vote accelerated that trend, with fewer companies using London to list their shares and fewer cropping up as M&A targets, given the political and economic uncertainty that prevailed at the time. Now the UK market is catching up. The FTSE-100's 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 is the highest for around five years, compared with 14.11 for the STOXX, the narrowest gap in around 18 months, LSEG data shows. The S&P trades at a ratio of 23, a near-10 point premium to the FTSE, compared with under 2 points 10 years ago. "The relatively poor performance we’ve seen in the UK versus particularly the U.S. over the past two years has begun to unwind. We’re in the foothills of that," Michael Stiasny, head of UK Equities, M&G Investments, said, adding that the UK market has traded at a "significant discount". The pound is close to a four-year high against the dollar, but has weakened against the euro this year , offering a tailwind to the FTSE's big exporters. The EU is Britain's largest trading partner, accounting for 41% of exports in 2024, followed by the United States, with 22%, according to official data. It isn't all rosy. The British economy is flagging, inflation is well above the Bank of England's target of 2% and business activity and employment are slowing. Barclays data shows UK equities have seen a net outflow of $20 billion in 2025, although outflows have almost dried up in the last month, compared with Europe's year-to-date inflow of $13 billion and rapidly slowing inflows. Sebastian Raedler, head of European equity strategy and Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said he felt the FTSE's strong run was a function of the currency and in line with the rest of Europe. "Net-net, the FTSE has mildly outperformed, but I would say in an environment where there are a lot of big stories ... a 2% (out)performance of the UK this year would rank further down the radar from my perspective," he said, referring to the percentage gain in the FTSE in 2025 versus that of the STOXX. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/foreign-investors-are-warming-londons-unloved-stocks-2025-07-18/

2025-07-18 04:34

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu Share markets continue to defy gravity. Wall Street closed at yet another record high as investors latched onto positive economic signals, spurring a rally in most Asian markets that looks set to continue in Europe. Sign up here. But a new source of worry has cropped up in Japan, where an upper house election on Sunday threatens the majority of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition. The heightened political risk is weighing down Japanese shares, bonds and the yen. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit its highest since late 2021 but Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab slipped 0.3%, while the yen was headed for a second straight week of losses, down about 0.7% to 148.45 per dollar and near a two-month low. Yields on 10-year JGBs slipped 1 basis point to 1.545% on Friday but have not strayed far from a 17-year high of 1.585% hit earlier in the week. European share markets are set for a higher open, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures up 0.3%. Japan's Sunday election could be its most consequential upper house election in years, potentially adding to political instability at a time of uncertainty over interest rates, mounting concerns about fiscal sustainability and little progress in trade talks with the U.S. Japan's core inflation slowed in June but stayed above the central bank's 2% target, highlighting the cost-of-living challenge that has been plaguing Ishiba. Apart from that, investors appear pretty happy with a still-resilient U.S. economy and robust corporate earnings. Wall Street futures are a tad firmer while results at Netflix (NFLX.O) , opens new tab exceeded forecasts, in part due to a weaker dollar, which could bode well for corporate America's export earnings. The economic and event calendars are mostly barren for the rest of the day. Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his support for a rate cut at the end of this month, citing mounting risks to the economy. Fed funds futures, however, imply next to no chance of a move on July 30, while a September rate cut is just about 60% priced in. Total easing of 45 bps is expected this year. Key developments that could influence markets on Friday: -- Germany PPI for June -- German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel speak on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Durban -- U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-07-18/

2025-07-18 03:03

MUMBAI, July 18 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is set to open higher on Friday, tracking a broader recovery in Asian peers and supported by a pause in the U.S. dollar index's near-term uptrend. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated an open in the 86.00-86.02 range versus 86.0750 on Thursday, marking the rupee's first sub-86 finish in nearly a month. Sign up here. "Asia will help (the rupee) at the open. However, I'd fade any downside (on USD/INR)," a currency trader at a bank said. "Positioning and risk-reward favour upside, and this looks (like a) buy-on-dips market right now." The dollar index fell about 0.2% in Asia to 98.40, helping most Asian currencies climb higher. The dollar index had rallied on Thursday, approaching the 99 mark, after robust U.S. data spurred expectations that the Federal Reserve will be in no rush to resume rate cuts. Upbeat U.S. retail sales in June pointed to a pickup in economic activity, while job claims fell to a three-month low, reinforcing signs of steady labour market strength. U.S. economic data released on Thursday "continues to signal resilience," MUFG Bank said, while noting the muted reaction in U.S. Treasury yields. Markets were largely unchanged about the Fed outlook, with no major shift in pricing for a September rate cut or the cumulative rate cuts expected in 2025. Despite the dip in the dollar index on Friday, the gauge is up 0.6% this week after last week's near 1% rally. Markets continue to hold net short positions on the U.S. dollar, and an unwinding of those short dollar positions could provide support for the U.S. currency, MUFG Bank noted. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 86.08; onshore one-month forward premium at 10 paise ** Dollar index down at 98.41 ** Brent crude futures down 0.1% at $69.5 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.44 ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $121.3 million worth of Indian shares on July 16 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $3.5 million worth of Indian bonds on July 16 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/pause-dollar-rally-offers-relief-rupee-after-86-breach-2025-07-18/

2025-07-18 01:56

US plans 50% tariff on Brazilian imports from August Brazil plans regulation and taxation of US tech firms Lula open to talks with Trump, minister says SAO PAULO, July 17 (Reuters) - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Thursday said he would not take orders over tariffs from a foreigner, referring to U.S. President Donald Trump, and later called the United States' threatened duty "unacceptable blackmail." The comments, made during two separate events, mark a continuation of a spat between the two leaders that escalated when the U.S. announced a 50% tariff on Brazil last week. Sign up here. Trump attributed the tariff, set to start in August, to Brazil's treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro and to trade practices against U.S. companies that he said are unfair. The tariff announcement came days after Lula called Trump an "emperor" the world does not want. Lula and members of his cabinet have rejected the reasoning behind the tariffs and insisted on Brazil's sovereignty, while calling for trade negotiations with the United States. "No foreigner is going to give orders to this president," Lula said in a speech, using the slang word 'gringo', which in Brazil is a common term for foreigners without the pejorative sense it carries in other parts of Latin America. He added that Brazil would go ahead with regulation and taxation of U.S. tech firms, telling a gathering of leftist student activists in the state of Goias that tech firms are conduits of violence and fake news disguised as freedom of expression. Later on Thursday, during an evening TV and radio address to the nation, Lula said the defense of Brazil's sovereignty extends to protecting itself against the actions of foreign digital platforms. During the near five-minute address, Lula said Brazil has been negotiating with the U.S. over tariffs, and repeated that the Latin America country had sent a proposal in May. "We expected a response, and what we received was unacceptable blackmail, in the form of threats to Brazilian institutions and false information about trade between Brazil and the United States," Lula said. Brasilia has been holding discussions with industry groups and companies that will be affected by the U.S. tariff, while also readying potential retaliatory measures if talks fall through. Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira told CNN Brasil separately on Thursday that Lula was open to talks with Trump, who had not yet met each other. "If the circumstances are given, they will speak," he added. Lula, who is in his third non-consecutive term as president of Latin America's largest economy, saw his approval ratings start to rebound after the trade spat with Trump last week. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lula-says-he-wont-take-orders-foreigner-trump-calls-tariffs-blackmail-2025-07-17/

2025-07-17 23:50

July 18 (Reuters) - BHP (BHP.AX) , opens new tab reported on Friday annual copper production above 2 million metric tonnes for the first time but warned of lower output next year while separately flagging delays and cost blowouts of up to 29% for its key Jansen Stage 1 potash project. The world's largest listed miner achieved copper production of 2.02 Mt in fiscal 2025, at the upper end of its forecast range. However, it expects output to drop to between 1.8 Mt and 2.0 Mt in fiscal 2026, reflecting planned lower grades at its flagship Escondida mine in Chile. Sign up here. BHP also reported record annual iron ore production of 290 Mt, at the upper end of its guidance, while its fourth-quarter output of 77.5 Mt beat a Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 75.90 Mt. The miner said first production from its Jansen Stage 1 potash project in Canada has been pushed back to mid-2027 from the previously targeted end-2026, while capital expenditure estimates have surged to $7.0 billion-$7.4 billion from $5.7 billion - a cost increase of up to 29%. "The estimated cost increase is driven by inflationary and real cost escalation pressures, design development and scope changes, and our current assessment of lower productivity outcomes over the construction period," BHP said in a statement. Strong iron ore production in the June quarter helped offset a weak March quarter that was impacted by two tropical cyclones. BHP had undergone a debottlenecking exercise at its Pilbara operations after ramping up the South Flank mine last year. For fiscal 2026, BHP expects iron ore production between 284 Mt and 296 Mt. The company is also assessing a potential divestment of its Western Australia Nickel assets as part of an ongoing review, citing balance sheet impacts from the nickel business. "Any decision to divest will be subject to an assessment against other options, including continuing temporary suspension, restart or closure," it said. https://www.reuters.com/business/bhp-logs-record-copper-output-flags-jansen-delay-cost-blowout-2025-07-17/