2025-07-17 11:23

LONDON, July 17 (Reuters) - Wednesday's market drama on reports of an imminent ouster of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has calmed quickly, with President Donald Trump saying it was "highly unlikely" he would fire the central bank boss even as speculation continue to brew. I'll dig into all of today's market news below, and then I'll discuss how U.S. markets may soon shift focus from tariffs to the more pressing economic threat of labor shortages driven by aggressive immigration crackdowns and deportations. Sign up here. Today's Market Minute * U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday he is not planning to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, but he kept the door open to the possibility and renewed his criticism of the central bank chief for not lowering interest rates. * Canada's Alimentation Couche-Tard on Thursday pulled its $46 billion bid to buy Seven & i Holdings, saying the retailer refused to engage constructively on the deal, which would have been Japan's largest ever foreign buyout. * The deadly Air India crash last month has renewed a decades-old debate in the aviation industry over installing video cameras monitoring airline pilot actions to complement the cockpit voice and flight data recorders already used by accident investigators. * While almost no one thinks Donald Trump's verbal attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are a positive development, writes ROI columnist Jamie McGeever, they have electrified the debate about whether the U.S. president is right that interest rates are too high. * The idea of simplifying the federal tax code used to enjoy widespread bipartisan political support. Times have changed in this regard, and not for the better. That’s bad news, says Income Securities Advisor , opens new tab publisher Marty Fridson, and not just because of the headaches it causes taxpayers each April. Markets calm down after Powell poser The Fed episode overshadowed otherwise decent set of U.S. economic updates - showing relatively subdued producer prices and above-forecast industry output last month and offsetting anxiety about some tariff-related price rises in Tuesday's consumer inflation report. The Powell story also obscured another decent set of bank earnings, with individual stock reactions for Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America underwhelming - much like the prior day's results. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) , opens new tab did surge 6%, however, after halving its expectations for costs related to new tariffs and raising full-year profit projections. But the burst of speculation about Powell's exit did reveal something of the market's reaction function on the long festering issue and also, to some extent, the potential size of those reactions. The dollar and short-term Treasury yields kneejerked lower on the Bloomberg report that claimed Trump was about to fire the Fed boss. With Trump's insistence on steep and immediate interest rate cuts as a backdrop, the prospect of Powell's removal upped monetary easing speculation instantly. But concern about damage to Fed independence and possibly overeager rate cuts now in the face of above-target inflation saw long-term Treasury yields surge, the yield curve steepen and stocks drop almost 1%. Trump quickly walked back the report and said he discussed firing Powell with Republican lawmakers on Tuesday but now felt he was "highly unlikely" to do so. Markets quickly reversed all their initial moves, puzzling over just what happens next. Many investors felt the whole piece was just calculated to heap pressure on the Fed Chair to resign of his own accord, with fresh angles of attack from the White House on Powell's responsibility for cost overruns in renovating Fed headquarters. "I'd love it if he wants to resign, that would be up to him," Trump added later. But relatively limited extent to which punters believe Trump will pull the trigger this year can be seen in only betting sites. Even at the height of Wednesday's tension, Polymarket's site , opens new tab showed just a one-in-four chance of Powell's ouster this year. And they ebbed back since to show roughly a 20% chance. The upshot in wider financial markets today is that a full recovery in stock prices and the dollar has been sustained - with long bond yields also returning to early Wednesday levels just over 5%. Two-year Treasury yields remained about 5 basis points lower and 10-year inflation expectations in the bond markets edged above 2.4% for the first time since February. Wall Street stock futures were higher again ahead of the bell. Thursday brings another heavy slate of economic updates, with June retail sales and weekly jobless claims topping the list. The corporate earnings season is now in full swing, with Netflix (NFLX.O) , opens new tab and General Electric and regional banks among those reporting. Given the Fed anxiety, speaking appearances from top board members will be watched especially closely - not least the dovish Christopher Waller, tipped by some as a possible Powell replacement and in favor of resuming rate cuts as soon as this month. On Wednesday New York Fed President John Williams refused to comment on Powell's position but said monetary policy is in the right place and warned the impact of trade tariffs is only just starting to hit the economy. Overseas markets were in relatively buoyant mood too, with Asia and European shares up 0.5-1.0%. Taiwan chip giant TSMC (2330.TW) , opens new tab reported results that topped analyst forecasts, undoing some of the pessimism in the sector from Dutch chip-making tool supplier ASML's (ASML.AS) , opens new tab revenue warning the previous day. European shares rose on Thursday after four consecutive sessions of losses, supported by strong quarterly results from Switzerland's ABB and some renewed optimism over a potential U.S. trade deal. Ahead of weekend elections, Japan's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab recovered from early losses to end higher as a weakening yen that hit three-month lows this week bolstered sentiment chip shares were lifted by TSMC results. G20 finance chiefs will meet in South Africa on Thursday under the shadow of President Donald Trump's tariff threats and questions over their ability to tackle global challenges together. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will not attend the two-day meeting in the coastal city of Durban, marking his second absence from a G20 event in South Africa this year. Chart of the day President Donald Trump said Wednesday it was "highly unlikely" he would fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell shortly after a Bloomberg report claiming he would oust the central bank boss soon hit the dollar briefly and disturbed stock and bond markets. Criticizing Powell's monetary policy stance yet again, Trump confirmed he had floated the idea of firing him with Republican lawmakers on Tuesday, marking the latest chapter in an escalating campaign by Trump against the independent central bank. "I'd love it if he wants to resign, that would be up to him," he added later. Online betting markets moved to show almost a 1-in-4 chance of Powell ouster this year, but have fallen back again to about a 21% chance since. Today's events to watch * U.S. weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM EDT), June retail sales (8:30 AM EDT), Philadelphia Federal Reserve July business survey (8:30 AM EDT), July NAHB housing market index (10:00 AM EDT), May business/retail inventories (10:00 AM EDT), Treasury TIC data on flows to and from U.S. securities (4:00 PM EDT) * U.S. corporate earnings: Netflix, US Bancorp, Snap-On, Pepsico, Abbott Laboratories, Travelers, General Electric, Marsh & McLennan, Cintas, Citizens Financial, Fifth Third, Elevance * Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller, Fed Board Governor Adriana Kugler, Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly all speak * G20 Finance and Central Bank Meeting in South Africa Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-07-17/

2025-07-17 11:18

July 17 (Reuters) - China is threatening to block the sale of more than 40 ports, owned by Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison (0001.HK) , opens new tab, to BlackRock (BLK.N) , opens new tab and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) if Chinese shipping company Cosco does not get a stake, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing unnamed sources. BlackRock declined to comment on the report, when contacted by Reuters. CK Hutchison, MSC and Cosco did not immediately respond to Reuters requests, while the Chinese government could not be immediately reached outside office hours. Sign up here. Chinese officials have told BlackRock, MSC and Hutchison that if Cosco is left out of the deal, Beijing would take steps to block Hutchison's proposed sale of the ports, the newspaper said. Tycoon Li Ka-shing's CK Hutchison in March announced it would sell its 80% holding in the ports business, which encompasses 43 ports in 23 countries. The business has an enterprise value of $22.8 billion, including debt. After much scrutiny and criticism in China, Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison confirmed in May Italian billionaire Gianluigi Aponte's family-run MSC, one of the world's top container shipping groups, was the main investor in a group seeking to buy the ports. BlackRock, MSC and Hutchison all are open to Cosco taking a stake, WSJ said. However, the parties would likely not reach a deal before a previously agreed upon July 27 deadline for exclusive talks between BlackRock, MSC and Hutchison, the report added. The proposed sale has also drawn the attention of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly expressed his desire to reduce Chinese influence around the Panama Canal and termed the deal a "reclaiming" of the waterway after it was first announced. Reuters could not immediately verify the WSJ report. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-threatens-block-panama-ports-deal-unless-its-shipping-giant-gets-stake-wsj-2025-07-17/

2025-07-17 11:10

MUMBAI, July 17(Reuters) - The Indian rupee weakened past a key support level on Thursday to hit a three-week low, pressured by a broadly stronger dollar, even as exporter dollar sales and portfolio inflows helped the local currency limit its losses. The rupee closed at 86.0750 against the U.S. dollar, down from its close at 85.94 in the previous session. Sign up here. While the rupee had steadied below the 86 mark earlier in the day, it fell to a low of 86.09 towards the close of the session. Traders cited dollar sales from exporters and foreign banks, likely on behalf of custodial clients, which helped limit the rupee's losses even as a firmer dollar hurt Asian currencies, which weakened between 0.1% to 0.4%. The dollar index rose 0.4% to 98.7 as traders assessed U.S. President Donald Trump's latest comments on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's future, while concerns over a pivotal election in Japan drove the yen lower by 0.5%. The dollar index whipsawed on Thursday, initially dropping on speculation that Trump would sack Powell, before trimming losses after the report was denied. "Trump's denial caused an unwinding of all market moves. It's a clear symptom of the resistance developed by markets for the rollercoaster of headlines that have characterised Trump's term so far," ING said in a note. M regional stocks were in the green on Thursday, even as India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab, ended down by about 0.4% each. Investors now await the release of U.S. retail sales data for June and remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers late in the day. The remarks are likely to be in focus amid Trump's almost daily criticism of Powell for not lowering interest rates. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-dips-past-key-support-exporter-activity-inflows-help-limit-losses-2025-07-17/

2025-07-17 11:05

BUCHAREST, July 17 (Reuters) - Dubai-owned ports and logistics company DP World has cut shipping times between Romania and Turkey by half, a senior executive said, as it expands its Black Sea operations at the European Union's eastern border. DP World more than doubled its container shipping capacity at Romania's largest Black Sea port of Constanta last year, with the addition of a roll-on, roll-off (Ro-Ro) terminal, and a logistics hub in western Romania. Sign up here. It has this year added an integrated European logistics service out of Romania offering road, sea, air and rail services, initially for clients in neighbouring Bulgaria, Moldova, Serbia and Turkey. "We have made huge strides in optimising maritime trade between Turkey and Constanta, improving the transit time by sea by 50%," DP World Eastern Europe Vice President Kris Adams told Reuters. "Istanbul-to-Bucharest shipments have been cut to under 30 hours, creating a viable alternative to road transport." A new scanner at DP World's Constanta Ro-Ro terminal has reduced truck inspection times from 5-7 hours to 2 minutes, he added. The upgrades cost a total of 130 million euros, but Adams said more would follow as there is growth potential in automotive, e-commerce and renewable energy cargo. "We're looking at ultimately investing over 200 million euros, there will be more in staff, in a digital platform and ... we have an ambition to operate contract logistics, so that means that we will at some stage be operating warehouses but it is too early to comment." Investment in infrastructure and exports of Ukrainian grain through Constanta in the wake of Russia's 2022 invasion helped boost operations at the port, which is a gateway to Central Asia and provides access to the Danube river and Western Europe. Its importance has also grown as companies relocate operations to Eastern Europe's low-cost manufacturing hubs to shorten supply chains. Adams said the company's investment plans would continue regardless of pending tax hikes by Romania's broad coalition government, although he noted the rises could dampen trade. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dp-world-halves-romania-turkey-shipment-times-it-bolsters-black-sea-assets-2025-07-17/

2025-07-17 10:02

LONDON, July 17 (Reuters) - The pound strengthened against the euro on Thursday, after data showed that a cooling in the British labour market, which had alarmed some policymakers, now appears less acute than the previous report had suggested. The euro was last down 0.22% on the pound at 86.52 pence, as the data reduced pressure on the Bank of England to accelerate the pace of its rate cuts, supporting sterling. Sign up here. The labour market numbers presented a mixed picture. Annual wage growth in the three months to May was 5.0%, its lowest since the second quarter of 2022, but was still slightly higher than the 4.9% median forecast from economists in a Reuters poll. In addition, data from the previous month showing a dramatic 109,000 drop in the number of employees on company payrolls in May was revised to show just a 25,000 decline. "Today’s labour market report continues to paint a picture of a loosening jobs market. That said, the labour market picture looks better than it did last month," said Sanjay Raja, Deutsche Bank’s chief UK economist, in emailed comments. In combination with Wednesday's hotter than expected British inflation data, the jobs numbers leave the Bank of England in a somewhat tricky situation, balancing sticky inflation, and slowing, if not collapsing employment. However, for this year, "this takes some of the pressure off the Bank of England to cut rates more quickly", said James Smith, developed markets economist, UK, at ING in a note. As well as the euro, the pound was stronger on most other currencies including the yen, and Swiss franc. , Versus the dollar, however the pound was down 0.15% at $1.1340, as the U.S. currency strengthened across the board, recovering from its Wednesday selloff. On Wednesday, media reports saying U.S. President Donald Trump was likely to soon fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sparked a drop in the dollar. Trump said later that day he was not planning on firing Powell, but kept the door open to the possibility and renewed his criticism of the central bank chief for not lowering interest rates. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-strengthens-against-euro-after-job-market-data-2025-07-17/

2025-07-17 09:10

LONDON, July 17 (Reuters) - Companies in the U.S. are expected to buy $1 trillion worth of their own stock in 2025 and remain the largest buyers of U.S. equities, according to Scott Rubner, Citadel Securities' head of equity and equity derivatives strategy. A corporate repurchase window, when companies can buy their own stock, reopens after companies' blackout period. The most recent corporate reporting season ends in August. Stock purchases, whether from investors trading equities or from the companies themselves, generally lead to asset prices rising. Sign up here. WHY IT’S IMPORTANT August is typically a positive month for stock markets and there has been a debate as to whether the scale of the rally is justified given ongoing uncertainties over U.S. tariffs. Big investors are staying out of markets for now and corporate buybacks may support higher asset values. Plus, earnings expectations this season are low, Rubner adds. "I put the current set-up in baseball terms – inning 7 out of 9," he said, referring to the final stages of a game. KEY QUOTE(S) "July seasonals are exceptional for U.S. stocks. Since 1928, July is the best-performing month of the year for the S&P 500, while September is the worst-performing month of the year as investors go 'back to school'," Rubner said in a note released on Wednesday and seen by Reuters. CONTEXT The S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab and Nasdaq (.IXIC) , opens new tab indexes hit record highs on July 15, up 6.7% and 7.5% respectively so far this year. MARKET REACTION Citadel Securities' retail trading flows have seen retail traders buy cash equities for the past 14 trading sessions, the longest daily retail buying streak since December 2024, which lasted 16 days, its note said. There has been a competition in markets for who can buy the dip the fastest, said Rubner. WHAT’S NEXT "I think that equities can rally further from here led by positive seasonal factors, strong flow-of-funds, continued retail support, return of corporates, and final buy-in from fundamental investors," he said. GRAPHIC https://www.reuters.com/business/us-corporates-expected-buoy-stock-markets-with-buy-backs-says-citadel-securities-2025-07-17/